Today's Global Economy Pulse
Fed's Kashkari warns inflation remains far too high
Minneapolis Fed President Neel Kashkari told CNBC that headline CPI was 3.8% in April and core CPI rose 2.8% year‑over‑year. He said the persistent price pressure could unanchor consumer expectations and may force the Federal Reserve to act more aggressively.
Oil Tops $100 a Barrel as Middle East War Risks Mount
Oil prices have surged past the $100 per barrel mark, with West Texas Intermediate climbing above $108 and Brent exceeding $107, reflecting a 16‑18% rise since the start of the year. The jump is driven by escalating war risks in the Middle East, tighter supply expectations, and OPEC’s continued output cuts. The spike threatens to amplify inflationary pressures and could slow global economic growth. Markets in the Middle East and Asia‑Pacific are closely monitoring the fallout on commodities and broader economies.
Short Basket Surges 6% Amid 2026 Market Dispersion
On Liberation Day, we created a Long/Short basket (dollar neutral) meant to capitalize on any fears of stagflation due to Tariffs. That wasn’t our expectation, however. We wrote “The likely result…the administration declares victory, and most tariffs eventually come down...
Voter Anxiety Over AI’s Economic Impact Rises
Voters are already anxious about the economic impact of AI, and the effects will surely grow in the coming months and years. Yasmin Khorram and Cheyenne Haslett explain what's happening, with some data from our Canaries in the Coal Mine...
Brent Prompt Futures Open at +$108
Brent prompt futures opened above $108 per barrel on NYMEX, marking a notable price surge. The rally is driven by OPEC+ output cuts, lingering Middle East tensions, and a weakening dollar that favors commodities. Analysts warn the $108 level could...
Inflationary Assets Surge; Food Price Spikes May Spark Unrest
$105/bbl A few months ago many said this would never happen. Never bet against inflationary assets in an inflationary era. Deglobalization is structural no cyclical. Watch food prices next. In a world of extreme inequality, with a Fed that needs lower rates to keep...
Zillow Predicts Near‑flat Rent Growth, Easing Inflation Pressure
Zillow just updated their 2026-27 rental market forecast. They're projecting single-family rent growth at only +1.1% in 2026, and +0.5% in 2027. With multifamily rents dropping -0.2% and -1.5%. They also project CPI rent growth to fall to ~1.0% by early 2027, which...
Kuwait Confirms Oil Output Slowdown as Storage Fills Up
Kuwait Petroleum Corporation announced it will begin throttling oil production as domestic storage fills, a precautionary step ahead of potential forced shutdowns. The move follows Iran’s recent attacks on vessels in the Strait of Hormuz, which have severely constrained tanker...
Higher Oil/Gas Gains, AI Capex Stalls, Credit Strains
Pretty much agree with everything @abcampbell wrote in this. He articulates things very well. 1. Long oil and gas equities who stand to benefit from higher for longer futures curves https://t.co/OpqxY05aWo 2. Economic growth will be tested and small cap longs behind...
Gas Prices Jump 15%, Boost March CPI by 0.45%
The national average of gasoline prices is up 45 cents since the war began last week, or a 15.12% increase. This is the second largest increase in the last two decades, depending on the measure you choose (dollar or percentage). All things...
Zambia and UK Sign Debt Restructuring Deal Under G20 Framework
Zambia and the United Kingdom have signed an amendment that reduces Zambia's outstanding debt to the UK from $291 million to about $277 million and pushes the final repayment deadline from 2032 to 2043. The deal is part of Zambia’s broader debt‑restructuring...
Iranian Regime Collapse Could Drive Oil Prices Down
The Strait of Hormuz is shut. So what's a catalyst for oil prices to fall and not rise as everyone's now saying? The most obvious thing would be the collapse of Iran's regime, the odds of which are rising every...
US Defends Waiver On Russian Oil Sanctions
U.S. officials defended a 30‑day waiver allowing Indian refineries to purchase Russian oil, aiming to ease market pressure as gasoline prices surged amid the Iran conflict. The waiver, announced by Energy Secretary Chris Wright and UN Ambassador Mike Waltz, seeks...
War Jitters Drain Liquidity From Iran’s Markets as Rial Pricing Fractures
Iran’s financial markets entered a pronounced lull after US and Israeli strikes heightened geopolitical risk, leaving many trading venues partially shut and liquidity thin. Online dollar pricing via USDT surged to IRR 1,550,000 per dollar, yet physical dollar dealers accept roughly...
US Must Not Let Iran Distract It From China
The United States and Israel are escalating a military campaign against Iran, raising concerns that the conflict could divert American attention and resources. Analysts warn that this distraction may allow China to deepen its strategic foothold in the Indo‑Pacific. The...
Singapore’s Oil Anchor Hub Threatened, Hormuz Gains Crucial Role
Everybody is watching the Strait of Hormuz, but they should also be watching Singapore. The image on the right are all the laden tankers sitting in an around Simgapore. The one in the left, with less ships, are loaded Very...
Subscriber Alert. Text: ‘Facilitator’ Ølberg’s March 2026 Report on WTO Reform for Yaoundé
Norwegian Ambassador Petter Ølberg delivered a 12‑page report to the WTO General Council outlining the state of reform discussions ahead of the March 26‑29 MC14 Ministerial in Yaoundé. The document stresses that no member will challenge the consensus rule, and it frames...
Fed Needs Inflation Surge Before Rate Hike, Bear Ste
Nice job Fam getting my old colleague and experienced central banker 5k followers in 3 days. Still massively underfollowed. Fwiw IMHO the U.S. Fed is going to need an explosion of inflation to hike in the next year....
Low Reserves Raise Borrowing Costs and Default Risk
Isn't it likely that countries in fiscal distress find it hard to borrow, have to pay high default premia, and run down their reserves like everything else?
War Fuels Fertilizer Crisis, Threatens Asian Economies
The war’s not stopping because of some pain at the American pump. The implications for global fertilizer markets (ammonia, sulphur) are probably going to be as big of a deal as the energy disruptions in several months. Asian economies are in...
Trump Says $100 Oil Is Temporary, Will Fall Post‑Iran Threat
Trump on oil prices above $100 a barrel: “Short term oil prices, which will drop rapidly when the destruction of the Iran nuclear threat is over, is a small price to pay.” https://t.co/jdsCvB0BtP
India’s Fertilizer Reliance Highlights Asia’s Supply Vulnerability
Asia supply of oil, gas & fertiliser is rather concentrated. We are seeing a massive supply shock to the most important input of modern life: food and transport.
Strait of Hormuz Never Closed, Closure Deemed Unthinkable
“In the whole written history of the strait, it has never been closed, ever,” said JPMorgan Chase analyst Natasha Kaneva,” of the Strait of Hormuz. “To me, it was not just the worst-case scenario. It was an unthinkable scenario.” https://t.co/x0YxXLfMu6
President Faces Market Pressure for Iran Off‑Ramp
The President is aware and addressing it. How heavy will be the expectation for an offramp on Iran so that he can stabilize the markets?
Brent Surpasses $110 Amid Hormuz Turmoil – Outlook?
Join us today in an X Space for X Subscribers: 🚨Hormuz Chaos: Brent Blasts Past $110 — What's Next for Oil?🚨 Today, Sunday, March 8, 9:00 PM US EST, 8:00 PM US CST No link now. Will open the Space on time.
Trump Tariffs Stalled Job Growth, Raising Business Costs
"Job growth notably stalled after President Trump began his tariff barrage last April, which created economic uncertainty and raised business costs." https://t.co/jaNVkXohlg
Oil Futures Top $100 Amid Middle East Tensions
Oil futures surge above $100 for the first time since 2022 🚨 🛢️ Brent contract jumps more than 10% as the conflict in the Middle East continues https://t.co/KgPOv96YdC
Markets Tumble as Oil Hits $100, Iran Tensions Rise
NQ drops 200 points on the open with a wide gap WTI above $100 for first time since 2022 24,000 will likley tested as sentiment sours over expanding conflict in Iran Prepare to hear doomsday all day long on talking head TV
Middle East Conflict Sends Oil, Gas, Stocks Tumbling
How the US-Israel-Iran War Impacts Oil, Gas, and US Stocks | Anas Alhajj... https://t.co/ZnJKFSYWCr via @YouTube
Gold as Safety Valve, Oil Price Spikes Threaten Global Chaos
In theory, this looks like they are trying to let gold be a release valve of the coming oil inflation. If so, this would be smart IMO, because if gold goes to $7,000, nothing happens…but if oil goes to $130, all...
YARDENI Raises Stagflation Risk, Cuts Meltup Forecast
YARDENI: “.. We can’t rule out a bear market if investors start to anticipate a Stagflating 1970s Redux scenario. .. We are lowering the ‘Meltup’ scenario from 20% to 5% and increasing the ‘Meltdown’ scenario (which now includes a 1970s-style...
China's Unexpected Readiness Shapes Hormuz‑Iran Dynamics
There is also the argument that China is prepared and better positioned than many expect. #Hormuz #Iran
Trump's Tariff Threats Push 74% Canadians Against US
America's northern neighbors have gone negative on the Good Old USA. A STUNNING 74% of Canadians view the US in an unfavorable light. TRUMP TARIFF THREATS = A MASTERCLASS IN HOW TO CREATE ENEMIES. https://t.co/NrtlXSevsb
Female Inclusion Drives Global Economic Growth, World Bank Shows
Happy International Women’s Day. Best way to boost growth and stimulate economies globally- is more female inclusion. The stats from the World Bank are stunning https://t.co/qbI4nWksqf
Iran Consumer Stress Remains Far Below Ukraine Invasion Levels
For those looking for a real-time measure for Iran-related consumer stress... Still well below Ukraine Invasion levels. https://t.co/QMoOhztOkb
Beyond Oil: Gulf War Shook Global Container Trade
If you thought oil and energy was the only thing impacted by the Gulf War, hang on to your containers.
Free Trade Wins: Produce only if Cheaper than Buying
“It is the maxim of every prudent master of a family never to attempt to make at home what it will cost him more to make than to buy.” #AdamSmith’s advocacy of #freetrade remains relevant today—though you wouldn’t think so from...
U.S. Public Backing International Trade Hits Record High
American support for international trade is at an all-time high (and, no, not just among Democrats) https://t.co/QayxCkWNFn
Iraq's Shut‑in Oil Exceeds Feared Russian Supply Loss
The volume of crude production that Iraq has *already* shut-in is larger than the peak of *feared* [but never realized] Russian supply loss in early 2022 that spiked crude prices above $120 per barrel.
Oil Shocks Affect Prices, Not Sustained Inflation
The Financial Times warns that rising oil prices threaten to fuel inflation. WRONG. Oil shocks change RELATIVE prices, but DO NOT cause SUSTAINED inflation. INFLATION IS ALWAYS & EVERYWHERE A MONETARY PHENOMENON. https://t.co/zvENzIWzCy
Hormuz Traffic Set to Return, but Irregular Amid War
I, too, believe that shopping traffic through the Strait will begin to pick up again, but “regular” isn’t a word that will apply again so long as the war continues And ships will only do so because prices and economic incentives...
High‑Stakes Billionaire Competition Resurfaces Amid Hormuz Crisis
For those who want an overview without watching my full hour+ long video on the Strait of Hormuz Crisis https://t.co/QDALtGFKiC
Iraq's Southern Output Slashes 70% Amid Hormuz Blockade
BAGHDAD, March 8 (Reuters) - Iraqi oil production from its main southern oilfields has fallen by 70% to just 1.3 million barrels per day as the country is unable to export oil via the Strait of Hormuz due to...
Banking Stocks Crash as Economy Slows, Iran Sparks Bubble Burst
Iran may end up being the Pin that pricked the bubble, but the Banking and Financial Sector Stocks are Crashing equity markets as the impact of a slowing economy and the US private credit market takes hold- Hindi Video... https://t.co/sOz3SepGUO via...
Trump-Era Sanctions Gave China Cheap Oil, Now Supply Wanes
This galaxy brain it’s-all-about-China’s-oil talking point drives me *insane* Only reason China was able to buy so much discounted crude from Ven/Irn/Ruz was because of US sanctions, largely imposed by the Trump admin(!), which scared off other buyers and left them...
Post‑Liberation Promises Mask a Looming Jobs Recession
"Since Liberation Day -- the President's last big, bold set of promises when he told us everything was about to be magical -- we've lost jobs. We've gone backwards... I'm going to call that a jobs recession." https://t.co/GZQfUVRfWG
Bitcoin Will Thrive in the Upcoming Hard‑money Era
Bitcoin thrived during an era of easy money, but Wartime Bitcoin will thrive in the era of hard money to come
US Economy Stays Strong Amid Policy Chaos, Future Uncertain
The US economy has been surprisingly resilient in the face of so much policy chaos. But you have to wonder whether that can continue, if the f***wittery just never stops
China's Fertiliser Stockpiles Keep Exports Tight
Fertilisers are rightfully getting a lot of focus now. China looks to be ok (for now). The state has stockpiles and there is material at ports. Exports of urea (nitrogen-based) were already tightly managed and it's hard to see more...
Economic Upturn Threatened by Rising Oil Prices
Global leading indicators, February 2026 - Upturn confirmed, will it slip in rising oil prices? https://t.co/bHBBQw0j9O, my latest blog post.
Hormuz Closure Boosts Russian Crude to Record Highs
We already know the winner in the war with Iran and that's Russia. The closure of the Straits of Hormuz has swung Russian crude from pariah to prized commodity. Urals oil price is the highest since right after the Ukraine...