Today's Global Economy Pulse
Australia's April CPI eases to 4.2% as core inflation hits 2024 high
Australia’s consumer price index slipped to a 4.2% annual rise in April, missing the 4.4% consensus as a temporary fuel excise cut trimmed transport costs. At the same time, the trimmed‑mean core inflation gauge rose to 3.4% year‑over‑year, the highest level since late‑2024, keeping pressure on the Reserve Bank of Australia’s inflation target.
Chart Alert: Hang Seng Index Recovered at 24,765, Bulls Need to Break Abo...
The Hang Seng Index rebounded to 24,765, reclaiming its 200‑day moving average after a 1.6% intraday gain. Over the past ten days, it fell only 3.3% while China’s CSI 300 slipped 1.1%, outpacing regional peers hit by oil‑driven stagflation fears. Policy cues from China’s National People’s Congress, including a 4.5‑5% growth target and a focus on domestic consumption, bolstered investor sentiment. Technical analysis shows bulls must break above 26,350 to confirm a sustained rally, whereas a dip below 25,385 could trigger a retest of the 24,765 support zone.
As Bombs Fall, Gold Prices Rise — and Poland Is Taking Notice
Geopolitical strikes on Iran have pushed spot gold to a record $5,420 per ounce, sparking a surge in demand for physical bullion. In Poland, the Mazovia Mint reports private investor purchases rising 30‑50% year‑on‑year, with 21% of Poles entering the...
Mideast Naphtha Supply Tightens as Disruptions Mount
Mideast Gulf naphtha supplies are tightening after Kuwait's KPC and Bahrain's Bapco Energies announced force majeure, removing roughly 560,000 t/month and 167,000 t/month respectively. Additional shipment delays from ADNOC and cargo cancellations by QatarEnergy, alongside drone attacks on Ras Laffan and Duqm,...
Politics with Michelle Grattan: Middle East War Set to Push Inflation Higher than Forecast, Warns RBA Deputy Governor
RBA Deputy Governor Andrew Hauser warned that inflation in Australia is likely to run above the bank’s June projection of 4.2% because of surging oil prices linked to the Middle East conflict. The central bank’s board will meet next week,...
CommBank View: Economics & Markets - Trailer
In this introductory trailer, host Mandy Drury outlines the new CommBank View: Economics & Markets podcast, which will feature the Commonwealth Bank’s Global Economic and Markets Research Team delivering deep analysis of fast‑moving global markets, shifting policy settings, and an...
Rupee Rebounds From All-Time Low, up 7 Paise to 92.14 Against US Dollar in Early Trade
The Indian rupee rebounded from its all‑time low, trading at 92.14 per U.S. dollar after a 7‑paise gain in early trade. The rally was sparked by a sharp drop in global oil prices following President Donald Trump’s comments that the...
India Must Tap FTA Opportunities: Piyush Goyal
India’s commerce minister Piyush Goyal urged firms to capitalise on the nine free‑trade agreements covering 38 developed economies, which open roughly two‑thirds of global trade to Indian exporters. He highlighted India’s rise to 38th in the Global Innovation Index and...
India Says No to IEA’s Call to Release Strategic Oil Reserves
India has declined the International Energy Agency’s invitation to tap its strategic oil reserves as a measure to curb soaring crude prices. The country holds about 5.33 million tonnes of underground reserves, roughly 80% of capacity, and reserves them for supply‑disruption...
Apple Now Makes About 25% of iPhones in India After China Pivot
Apple boosted iPhone assembly in India by roughly 53% in 2025, reaching about 55 million units and accounting for a quarter of its global output. The shift helps the company sidestep escalating US tariffs on Chinese‑made devices and diversifies its supply...
Does Iran Pose a Real Threat to US Carriers? Debate Finally Answered For Good
The article dissects Iran’s alleged ability to strike a U.S. aircraft carrier, revealing that long‑range anti‑ship missiles depend on airborne reconnaissance and mid‑course guidance rather than autonomous targeting. It explains that carriers operate beyond the radar horizon, can maneuver at...
Businesses Brace for Lengthy Battle Over IEEPA Tariff Refunds
Supreme Court struck down Trump-era IEEPA tariffs, prompting a flood of refund claims for roughly $175 billion collected. The U.S. Court of International Trade ordered the government to begin issuing refunds, but Customs and Border Protection requested a 45‑day setup period,...
Africa After Aid
When the United States and other major donors slashed foreign aid in 2025, analysts warned of imminent economic collapse across Africa. Yet recent data show most African economies have maintained or even modestly expanded growth, with Ethiopia posting 4.2% GDP...
The Trouble With State Capitalism
The authors argue that governments worldwide are moving toward a form of state capitalism, using export controls, investment‑screening mechanisms, and subsidies to steer corporate behavior toward geopolitical goals. This shift blurs the line between market‑driven decision‑making and political direction, compelling...
Market View: Is There a Real Path to De-Escalation for the Iran Conflict? Will the US Market Meltdown? AI’s Debt-Fueled Data...
In this episode, Michelle Martin and Ryan Huang dissect the market fallout from the Iran conflict, highlighting President Trump's mixed signals that have driven oil volatility and raised the odds of a U.S. market melt‑down to 35% according to strategist...
Trade Boom: China’s Exports Surge 21.8% to Start 2026 – Biggest Gain in 4 Years
China’s exports jumped 21.8% in the first two months of 2026, marking the strongest bi‑monthly increase in four years. The surge was powered by heightened demand from ASEAN, the European Union and other key markets, while U.S. exports to China...
Investors Should Apply Economists' Simple Extrapolation to Stocks
I enjoy very much how economists analyze: Oil is up $50. India imports 5 million per day. This is US$ 250 m extra per day or US$ 7.5 billion per month. How will India make up for annual US$ 90 billion...
Dollar Eases with Oil on Hopes of Swift End to Iran War
The U.S. dollar slipped after President Donald Trump declared the Iran conflict "very complete," prompting a sharp retreat in oil prices. Brent crude fell to $92.46 a barrel, down from Monday's $120 peak, easing pressure on risk‑sensitive currencies such as...
Trump’s Iran Optimism Fails to Calm Investors
“Trump saying the Iran war will be over very soon is hardly the reassurance that will get tankers sailing normally again in and out of the Strait of Hormuz,” said Vandana Hari, founder of analysis firm Vanda Insights. Investors could...
Japan Economy Grows 1.3% in Oct.-Dec., Revised up, on Stronger Investment
Japan’s October‑December GDP was revised up to an annualised 1.3 percent, reversing two quarters of contraction. The upgrade reflects stronger business investment, with capital spending rising 1.3 percent, and a modest lift in private consumption of 0.3 percent. Nominal GDP also jumped to...
Victorians Drown in Bureaucrats and Debt
Victoria’s 2025‑26 Mid‑Year Financial Report shows net debt jumping $10 bn to $160.9 bn, lifting the debt‑to‑GDP ratio to 24.2%. Interest costs surged to $3.8 bn, equating to roughly $1 million per hour in repayments. While tax revenue rose $2.1 bn, employee expenses climbed $1 bn,...
Iran Now Cast as Oil‑flow Villain; Markets Act Calm
JUST IN: Classic turning the tables. Now Iran will be the bad guy for doing anything that hinders oil flows through the Strait of Hormuz. Crude is trading Tuesday morning as if the war is over. The proof will be in...
Rosatom Projects Persist Despite Western Sanctions
Interesting report on Rosatom > "Western sanctions have posed financial and logistical challenges to Rosatom’s projects, but most projects are staying the course." https://t.co/aqSfqArRIV
The Government Has a Spending Problem.
Senator Ralph Babet warns that Australia’s government spending per person has been rising at roughly twice the rate of tax collection, creating a widening fiscal gap. Decades of overspending have turned a once debt‑free nation into one where every citizen...
China's Early‑year Exports Boom, $213bn Trade Surplus
China’s Exports Surge in First Two Months of Year—Trade surplus stood at $213.62 billion for the period https://t.co/siI2mnkBZ1 https://t.co/siI2mnkBZ1
Trump Team Weighs Easing Russia Oil Sanctions to Lower Prices
March 9 (Reuters) - President Donald Trump's administration is considering reducing oil sanctions on Russia to help cool a surge in global energy prices triggered by the U.S. and Israeli war on Iran... according to three sources familiar with the...
Rising Energy Costs Imperil Thai Manufacturer's Profits
Geopolitical tensions in the Middle East are pushing energy prices higher, threatening the profit margins of Thailand's consumer‑goods conglomerate Osotspa Plc. Energy accounts for roughly 20% of the company's costs, and a rise in LNG to $140‑150 per unit could...
China’s Politically‑driven Growth Target Fuels Overinvestment and Waste
FT op-ed: “China’s growth target is a global problem…The target is not based in economics. It’s a political goal…Pursuing that aim, Beijing has been overinvesting for years, but lately it has been dumping the excess output it can’t sell at...
China Refrains From Detaining Ships Amid US‑Iran Clash
“China could have held these vessels at port, imposed an administrative delay, invented a customs hold – any number of bureaucratic tools, but didn’t,” he said, calling the decision notable at a time when the United States and Iran are engaged...
Airlines Face Fuel Shock as Middle East Crisis Tests Hedging Strategies
A sudden escalation in the Middle East has driven crude oil prices up nearly 40% in a week, pushing barrel prices toward $150 and sending jet‑fuel costs soaring. Fuel, the airline industry's largest variable expense, is now testing the resilience...
CPI Inflation Flat in February, Near 5‑Year Low
Wall Street has inflation as measured by the CPI running sideways in February and holding near the lowest 12-month rates in five years* *at least until April, when the data collection/imputation distortions from the Oct govt shutdown could fully unwind...
Oil’s Wild Swing Reignites Doubts About Market Recovery
Crude oil shot up toward $120/bbl, then plunged back below $90/bbl, swinging stocks, bonds, gold, and the dollar along the way. Is the market meltdown really over? #USIranWar #crudeoil #stockmarket #dollar #macro #trading https://t.co/9oO6NbDLq3
Government Job Boom Stifles Productivity Growth
Australia’s labour‑productivity growth has slipped to the bottom of the advanced‑economy rankings over the past decade, as shown by Antipodean Macro’s chart. A long‑term “capital shallowing” effect—immigration outpacing business, infrastructure and housing investment—has already constrained output per hour. More recently,...
“It’s Amateur Hour”: Mark Kelly Rips Trump & Hegseth on Iran
Senator Mark Kelly blasted President Donald Trump and White House adviser Hegseth, calling the U.S. response to the Iran conflict "amateur hour." The war, now in its second week, has produced nearly 2,000 deaths in the region, including seven American...
Trump and Putin Discuss End to Iran and Ukraine Wars on Call
President Donald Trump and Russian President Vladimir Putin held a roughly hour‑long phone call, their first since the Iran‑Russia conflict escalated. The leaders discussed proposals to end the war in Iran and linked those efforts to a potential resolution of...
Thai Bourse Buoyant on Return of Foreign Investors
The Stock Exchange of Thailand (SET) says foreign investors will likely return once geopolitical tensions ease, positioning Thailand as a regional safe‑haven. Since the Middle East conflict, the SET index fell about 10.5% but remains 8.5% higher year‑to‑date, keeping Thailand...
Australian Dollar Rockets as Asteroid Destoys Earth
The Australian dollar surged after the G7 abruptly abandoned its pledge to release strategic petroleum reserves, sending the US dollar index (DXY) tumbling and pushing Brent crude sharply lower. The policy reversal erased the AUD’s recent losses against the US...
Crisis Seen as Opportunity for Thailand
Caretaker finance minister Ekniti Nitithanprapas warned that Thailand’s soaring oil prices, now above $100 per barrel, present a pivotal chance to reshape the economy. He highlighted a 60% jump in BOI‑registered projects to 1.8 trillion baht, reflecting a wave of investors...
Oil Slides as Hormuz Transits Expected to Ease War Impact
*WTI OIL DROPS AS MUCH AS 10% TO $85.52/BBL AT START OF [Tuesday] TRADING *TRUMP SAYS IRAN WAR WILL END 'SOON' BUT NOT THIS WEEK Not to be callous ... but the market really cares about oil tankers moving through the Strait...
Get Ready for Soaring Energy Bills
Australia is confronting a three‑pronged energy price surge, with petrol and diesel now topping $2 per litre in most capital cities. Gas and electricity costs are also climbing, adding pressure to household and business budgets. The spike follows a sharp...
Trump Predicts Quick War End Amid Oil Dip
War might end “soon” - Trump. Oil price menjunam semula bawah $100. According to Bloomberg: “…mounting economic and political pressures..” Question is - can we believe him?
Trump Predicts Iran War Ending Soon, Critiques New Leader
President Trump just finished speaking on the Iran situation now. Here is a summary of his key comments. He says the war will end very soon (but not this week) and he is disappointed by the new supreme leader's appointment. Oil...
Energy Superidiot to Get Utility Price Cuts
Australian gas prices plunged in the first quarter of 2026, driving wholesale electricity costs down from an average $116 M/h to $60 M/h. The lower power component is projected to shave roughly 20% off residential and commercial utility bills, with the regulated...
Hormuz Closure Sends Gas Prices Soaring, LNG Cargoes Toward Asia
The recent closure of the Strait of Hormuz has triggered a sharp rise in global natural‑gas prices, except in North America, which remains insulated by abundant domestic supply. The disruption forced several LNG carriers originally bound for Europe to reroute...
China Searches for a Way Out of Brazil’s Steel Barriers
Chinese steel exporters are confronting steep anti‑dumping duties in Brazil, ranging from $285 to $710 per tonne, which could render Chinese imports unviable for up to five years. The duties target pre‑painted, cold‑rolled, and coated steel, prompting Chinese firms to...
Carney’s Iran Misstep Highlights Need for Policy Reset
Carney’s Early Iran Misstep — Time to Reset Stick with this interview. It's long, complex, and not always easy to understand, but at the end of it I felt like I understood the dilemma facing MarkJCarney and Canada over Iran...
Oil and Dollar Rise as Stocks Slide Further
"...or we could go further... and we're going to go further." Crude oil up, dollar up, stock index futures down. 🎢
Graham Claims US Will Profit From Iran War
Sen Lindsey Graham promises US will gain oil/money from Iran war: "We are going to make a ton of money... Venezuela and Iran have 31% of the world’s oil reserves. We’re going to have a partnership with 31% of the...
Trump Hints at Lifting Sanctions Until Hormuz Clears
Unclear whether President Trump referred to the already announced easing of Russian oil sanctions for India, or something new. In any case, this is what he said: "We have sanctions on some countries. We're going to take those sanctions off till...
Speculating Maduro's Ouster as Venezuela Insurance Against Iran
Is it feasible that Maduro was taken off the board to use Venezuela as some sort of insurance policy against attacking Iran leading to tighter oil supply or is that silly
First Closure Hard, Repeated Closures Become Effortlessly Easy
Shutting down Hormuz the first time is like withdrawing from a golf tournament the first time. The second time becomes soooo much easier and will happen with much less provocation.