Today's Global Economy Pulse
Fed's Kashkari warns inflation remains far too high
Minneapolis Fed President Neel Kashkari told CNBC that headline CPI was 3.8% in April and core CPI rose 2.8% year‑over‑year. He said the persistent price pressure could unanchor consumer expectations and may force the Federal Reserve to act more aggressively.
Meta Hikes Fees for Advertisers to Cover Europe's Digital Taxes
Meta Platforms will begin charging advertisers a "location fee" to offset Europe’s digital services taxes, starting July 1. The fee mirrors each country’s tax rate—3% in France, Italy and Spain; 5% in Austria and Turkey; and 2% in the U.K.—and applies to all ad formats regardless of the advertiser’s domicile. Meta says it previously absorbed these levies, aligning its approach with Google and Amazon. The change adds the tax amount to the ad cost, with VAT calculated on the combined total.
Iran Conflict Spikes Energy, Stalls Fed’s Inflation Fight
The Fed was already struggling to get inflation back to 2% before Trump opted for an all-out confrontation with Iran. Now, elevated energy prices, if sustained, risk delaying that progress further, entangling the central bank in yet another challenging debate...
I Think I Can Explain Trump's Theory of Trade
The post dissects Donald Trump’s contradictory trade stance, arguing he wants foreign buyers and investors to pour dollars into the United States to spur demand, regardless of conventional deficit definitions. It frames his view as a simplistic Keynesian push for...
South-South Trade with China Is the Future of Global Trade
China is rapidly expanding its south‑south trade, with the Belt and Road Initiative now responsible for roughly 52% of its foreign trade. Between 2007 and 2023, south‑south commerce grew from $2.3 trillion to $5.6 trillion, accounting for over a third of global...
Shippers ‘Despair’ as Carriers Hit Trade with Flurry of New Surcharges
Ocean carriers and airlines have announced a wave of new surcharges, prompting the Global Shippers Forum to warn that operating costs for exporters could more than double. An Australian exporter cited an additional $250,000 expense, which rose to $600,000 after...
Hormuz Closure Would Cost Gulf States Average 3.8% of GDP, Marex Warns as Bahrain Most Exposed
Marex warns that a three‑month shutdown of the Strait of Hormuz would erode the average current‑account balance of Gulf states by 3.8% of GDP. Bahrain, lacking alternative export routes, would see its surplus flip to a 3.2% deficit, while Saudi...
Daily Memo: Commercial Shipping and the Conflict in Iran
Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps announced it will condition passage through the Strait of Hormuz on Arab or European nations expelling U.S. and Israeli ambassadors, while simultaneously barring oil exports to the United States and its allies. The move signals...
Albert Hirschman Strikes Back
Albert O. Hirschman's 1945 work *National Power and the Structure of Foreign Trade* was largely ignored when published, but its analysis of how states engineer trade for strategic advantage is resurfacing amid today’s intensifying geoeconomic conflict. The book argued that...
Dollar Bounce Signals Buying Opportunity, Risks for Commodities
If you know where the dollar is going, you know where global liquidity is going. $DXY just bounced hard off 96.65 multi-year support and is pressing into the $100 resistance zone. Momentum is improving with higher lows and rising RSI. Today’s pullback looks...
Fiscal Deficit as Percentage of GDP Revised Upwards for FY'23 to FY'25 After GDP Base Revision
India’s fiscal‑deficit ratios have been revised upward for FY 2022‑23 to FY 2024‑25 after the government adopted a 2022‑23 GDP base year. The new series shows deficits of 6.7 % in 2022‑23, 5.7 % in 2023‑24 and 4.9 % in 2024‑25, compared with earlier estimates...
Middle East Conflict Impact on Airbus, Boeing
The escalating Iran‑Israel conflict is prompting Gulf states to reconsider US‑linked defense and commercial aviation contracts, putting major aircraft orders under review. Boeing’s flagship 777X program now faces heightened risk as regional airlines delay fleet expansion, while Airbus could capture...
LNG Shipping Rates Surge 600% as Hormuz Risk Reshapes Global Gas Flows
Geopolitical tension in the Strait of Hormuz has triggered a dramatic spike in spot LNG charter rates, soaring 600% to about $300,000 per day, the highest since the 2022 gas crisis. Analysts estimate a potential 20% reduction in global LNG...
Reform HMT Rather than Taxing Shipping More: Analyst
Transportation policy analyst Jay Derr argues that the Trump administration’s plan to impose a universal fee on foreign‑built vessels would effectively double‑tax ships already subject to the Harbor Maintenance Tax (HMT). The existing HMT, collected from all vessels entering U.S....
Saudi Arabia Turns to Fahad Al-Saif As Vision 2030 Faces Reality Check
Saudi Arabia has replaced veteran investment minister Khalid Al‑Falih with former HSBC banker Fahad Al‑Saif amid mounting pressure to boost foreign capital. Foreign direct investment last year accounted for just 2.1% of GDP, far short of Vision 2030 targets, while government...
From ‘Love and Hate’ to Nationalism, Can Xi and Trump Rebalance Ties?
U.S. President Donald Trump is set to make his first China visit in a decade, prompting Chinese scholars to argue the relationship can move from confrontation toward managed coexistence. At a University of Hong Kong seminar, experts highlighted a "relative...
In the Home Sector, ‘the Weak Will Get Weaker’ This Year
Home retailers are bracing for a 2026 that mirrors the weak 2025, as year‑over‑year sales continue to fall and the sector was the only category to decline in January’s retail report. The slowdown is tied to a stagnant housing market,...
Ambassador Bozell Flags Scale of US Tech Investment in South Africa
U.S. Ambassador Leo Brent Bozell III highlighted that more than 500 American companies operate in South Africa, collectively employing around 250,000 people. He emphasized the strong presence of tech giants such as Microsoft, Amazon Web Services, Google and Visa, which...
Canola Watches CUSMA Talks
Canadian canola exports are heavily dependent on the United States, with 78% of oil shipments projected for 2025 and 66% of meal exports in 2024. The joint review of the Canada‑U.S‑Mexico Agreement (CUSMA) begins July 1, and the U.S. is conducting...
Stay Cautious: Watch Oil at $100, Trust Trump Trade
Oil reversal. Stocks mixed. Gold up slightly. Dollar easing. Know what that means? Nobody knows what to believe right now Iran is hitting back, geopolitics are getting worse, but Trump says there's an off-ramp and the war ends soon Mixed signals everywhere....
Strait of Hormuz Disruption Threatens 20% of Global Oil Flow
🎙️ I was thrilled to rejoin @TheStalwart and @tracyalloway on the Odd Lots podcast to discuss the historic and ongoing disruption of traffic through the Strait of Hormuz, through which ~20% of the world's oil flows. This is it. This is...
India to Give Tariff Concession for DDGS Imports From US, but with a Cap
India announced a tariff concession for U.S. dried distillers grains with solubles (DDGS) used in animal feed, but only within a capped quota similar to existing tariff‑rate quotas for commodities like corn. Union Minister Rajiv Ranjan Singh emphasized that the...
Dollar Stalls Near 99.50 as Risk Aversion Eases
The Dollar stallout around 99.50 aligned to channel, some Fib standing and of course the curb on severe risk aversion around oil prices. That said, not a lot of pullback in the softened rate cut expectations around the FOMC's 2026...
Nasser's Point Is Valid; Aramco‑embargo Link Irrelevant
Nasser isn't spreading hyperbole. He's correct about what's happening. But, the assertion that this is notable because Aramco was the nexus of the 1970s oil embargo is...not relevant.
Every “Expert” Who Said Tariffs Would Destroy America Owes Us an Apology
The piece contends that Trump‑era tariffs have slashed the U.S. trade deficit with China, delivering a 32% drop and pushing the deficit to its lowest level in 21 years. China’s share of U.S. imports fell from 13% to 7% within...
Market Easing on Trump Prolongs Strait of Hormuz Crisis
This isn’t over and the current market reaction, by reducing pressure on Trump, is only elongating the duration of the crisis and the physical disruption through the Strait of Hormuz. https://t.co/bMeee4CJjz
Trump Deficits Financing Fuels Money Supply, Sparks Inflation
My column in @FortuneMagazine on the US deficit and inflation: "If the Trump budget deficits continue to be financed through the banking system & money market funds, the growth rate in the money supply will continue to accelerate & headline inflation...
Trump Speaks and Markets Follow
President Donald Trump’s recent comments on the Middle‑East conflict acted as a catalyst for a broad market rally, lifting equities across the Pacific Rim, Europe and parts of Asia while U.S. futures slipped. His optimism drove oil prices down 24%...
IEA to Decide Coordinated Emergency Oil Release Today
🚨The International Energy Agency is convening member governments later today to decide whether to conduct a coordinated release from members' emergency oil stockpiles. #energy #OOTT #IranWar
Control Money Growth, Offset Oil Spending, Curb Inflation
My new column in @FortuneMagazine on US inflation: "If the rate of growth in broad money is controlled, then higher spending on oil & gasoline will be offset by lower spending on other items, restraining overall inflation." INFLATION = A MONETARY PHENOMENON.
The €140 Billion Circular Handshake
The EU‑India Free Trade Agreement, covering €136 billion in trade and promising €4 billion in annual tariff savings, pivots from volume‑driven commerce to a circular framework. It grants India preferential access for textiles, footwear and other labour‑intensive goods while opening EU markets...
Energy Surge Won’t Spike Inflation, Yields Stay Stable
From my friend at Stategas @donrissmiller: Energy prices have been extreme - but several factors are keeping inflation down - rent, car prices and Quits not leading to higher comp. = inflation remains at 2-3% with a 10...
Iran Crisis Deepens K‑
It is hard not to see K-Shaped consequences to the events in Iran, as those at the bottom around the global disproportionately experience the real time impacts of food and energy inflation.
Britain Working with Allies to Support Shipping Through Strait of Hormuz
Britain announced it is collaborating with Italy and Germany to develop options that safeguard commercial shipping through the Strait of Hormuz amid escalating Iranian threats. The three leaders reaffirmed the vital importance of freedom of navigation and pledged close cooperation...
Only 28% See U.S. Economy as Good, 72% Not
"In the Pew Research Center’s latest survey, just 28 percent of U.S. adults rate economic conditions as excellent or good, while 72 percent say they are only fair or poor."
Iran War Sends Prices in Next Door Turkmenistan Soaring
The Iran‑Israel war has triggered Tehran to ban all goods and agricultural exports, instantly inflating prices in neighboring Turkmenistan. Mandarins, apples and cigarettes have roughly doubled, squeezing pensioners and low‑income consumers. Central Asian economies, which depend on Iranian transit corridors...
Oil Sinks, Asian Markets Rally, as Trump Says War Will End ‘Soon’
President Donald Trump’s claim that the U.S.–Israel‑Iran war will end soon helped reverse a sharp oil rally, pulling Brent crude down more than 7% to around $92 a barrel. Iran vowed to halt all Gulf oil exports, while attacks on...
Goldilocks Market Boosts EM Commodity Exporters Amid Brent Dip
We're in a goldilocks environment for EM commodity exporters like Brazil and South Africa. Brent has fallen significantly, which is good for risk appetite. But it's still 20% above where it was before hostilities. That's good for EM commodity exporters......
Centre Seeks Parliament Nod for Net Extra Spending of ₹2 Trillion in FY26 Amid Commodity Price Volatility
The Indian government has asked Parliament to approve a net extra spending of roughly ₹2 trillion for FY26, representing just under 0.6% of nominal GDP. The additional outlay is driven by heightened food and fertilizer subsidies, increased defence revenue expenditure, and...
Has the EU Found a ‘Magic Bullet’ to Its Enlargement Conundrum or a New Distraction?
EU foreign policy chief Kaja Kallas urged faster enlargement, calling it an antidote to Russian aggression. Member states remain cautious, fearing that admitting poorer, less democratic candidates could erode unanimity‑based decision‑making. Brussels is debating a two‑tier EU where new members...
Skip Oil Frenzy; EM Differentiation Lifts Brazil, South Africa
Trump yesterday said war will be over soon. Oil tumbled. As I signaled over the weekend, better to steer clear of the frenzy around oil and focus on EM differentiation. That theme's only been traded for a few days and...
War in Iran – Congestion, Rerouting of Trade and Higher Fuel Prices
The war in Iran is already causing shipping congestion, trade rerouting and higher fuel prices, prompting urgent discussion at the Capital Link International Shipping Forum. Panelists warned that liner freight rates could stay elevated longer than anticipated, and that if...
Market Sentiment Improves Further on Saudi Oil Rerouting, Dollar Stays Soft
Global markets rallied as Saudi Aramco activated the East‑West pipeline, restoring roughly 70% of its crude exports—about 5 million barrels per day—despite Gulf shipping disruptions. The move eased fears of a major oil supply shock, keeping WTI near $90 and lifting...
Qatar Wants to Bolster Security Partnership with US After Iran's Strikes
Qatar announced it will deepen its defence partnership with the United States after Iran launched missile and drone attacks that struck the Al Udeid Air Base, the largest U.S. military installation in the Gulf. The Qatari foreign‑ministry spokesperson emphasized that existing...
Tuesday Will Be Most Intense Day of Strikes on Iran, Hegseth Says
U.S. Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth announced that Tuesday will see the most intense day of strikes against Iran in the ongoing campaign. He said the operation will involve the highest number of fighter jets and bombers deployed to date. The...
U.S. Military Striking Iranian Mine-Laying Vessels, Top U.S. General Says
The United States has begun striking Iranian vessels that are laying naval mines, according to Chairman of the Joint Chiefs General Dan Caine. In the first ten days of the campaign, U.S. forces have sunk or destroyed more than 50...
Listen: Who Really Speaks for the EU on the International Stage?
The EU’s foreign policy still splinters across three institutional presidents, leaving no single voice on the global stage. Recent strikes on Iranian targets highlighted divergent statements from leaders like Macron, Merz and Sánchez, underscoring the coordination gap. The Treaty of...
US Importer Crackdown Bid Could Trigger Shift in Ecommerce Logistics
The U.S. Senate introduced the Securing Accountability in Foreign Entries Act, tightening importer‑of‑record rules by requiring a genuine physical U.S. presence and verified bank accounts. The legislation also raises the minimum continuous import bond to $100,000. By targeting non‑resident importers,...
Transcript: Ed Perks, Franklin Income Investors CIO / Franklin Advisers President
Ed Perks, a 40‑year veteran of Franklin Templeton, serves as CIO of Franklin Income Investors and president of its advisory arm. He credits early cross‑asset roles—from equity research to convertible securities—in shaping a disciplined, risk‑focused income philosophy. Perks emphasizes evaluating...
Tin Market Volatility Intensifies as Global Demand for Strategic Metals Grows
Tin prices surged to a projected $54,925 per ton for the week of March 9‑14 2026, according to the DRC’s National Market Commission, while Boursorama data on March 10 showed a daily dip to $48,275 per ton, underscoring sharp volatility. The metal’s small...
Near-Shoring Talk Fades as Global Supply Chains Stretch, Says DHL
The DHL Global Connectedness report shows that global supply chains are stretching, with 2025 average trade distances reaching a record 5,010 km and greenfield foreign‑direct investment averaging 6,250 km. Despite geopolitical tensions and near‑shoring rhetoric, companies are still diversifying globally, routing trade...