Today's Global Economy Pulse
Australia's April CPI eases to 4.2% as core inflation hits 2024 high
Australia’s consumer price index slipped to a 4.2% annual rise in April, missing the 4.4% consensus as a temporary fuel excise cut trimmed transport costs. At the same time, the trimmed‑mean core inflation gauge rose to 3.4% year‑over‑year, the highest level since late‑2024, keeping pressure on the Reserve Bank of Australia’s inflation target.
From Earth to Heaven: The Changing Drivers of Monetary Policy
The new Forbes et al. (2026) study uses a factor‑augmented VAR across 13 advanced economies (1970‑2024) to separate global and domestic shocks affecting interest rates, inflation and output. It finds that global shocks have risen from modest influence pre‑1999 to accounting for about half of interest‑rate variance today, surpassing domestic drivers. Global shocks are characterized by larger supply components, higher volatility, longer persistence, and a bias toward tightening cycles. These findings imply central banks need to rethink policy frameworks that were built on domestic‑shock dominance.
Japanese Wholesale Prices +2.0% Y/Y in February (2.1% Expected)
Japan's corporate goods price index (wholesale PPI) for February 2026 rose 2.0% year‑on‑year, slightly under the 2.1% forecast and down from 2.3% in January. On a month‑to‑month basis, the index slipped 0.1%, missing the expected 0.2% increase. The data indicates...
US Policies Triple‑Squeeze Seoul, Threatening Alliance Balance
Seoul is really getting squeezed - (1) U.S. trade policy squeezing its competitiveness, (2) U.S. policy in the Middle East squeezing its energy security, and now (3) U.S. warfighting requirements squeezing USFK assets. It's fine to lawyer this or that...
Consumer and Business Confidence Hit the Kids
ANZ‑Roy Morgan consumer confidence dropped 3.7 points to 73.4, pulling the four‑week moving average down to 77.0. At the same time, the four‑week average of inflation expectations rose 0.3 percentage points to 5.5%, while weekly inflation expectations climbed 0.8 points to...
Iran Weaponizes Hormuz, Blocks Oil; US Pushes Escort Reopening
WHEN THE ARTERY THAT SUPPLIES A FIFTH OF GLOBAL OIL NEEDS, THE STRAIT OF HORMUZ, IS WEAPONISED. Iran says it won’t let traffic through, bills its continued closure as victory. US wants to reopen it, proposes naval escorts if necessary. Here’s Iran’s Araghchi...
As Energy Prices Surge, a Tax on Windfall Gas Profits Could Be the Best Way to Protect Households
Rising energy prices triggered by the Iran conflict have pushed global gas rates up roughly 50%, inflating profits for Australian LNG exporters while household bills climb. Australia, a net oil importer but major LNG exporter, faces a fiscal dilemma: a...
Australians Suffer Pain Not Gain From Gas Exports
Independent senator David Pocock highlighted that Australia’s Petroleum Resource Rent Tax on offshore gas exports generates less revenue than the excise on beer. Treasury Deputy Secretary Shane Johnson confirmed the comparison during a February Senate estimates hearing. The revelation underscores...
Trump’s Iran Attack Is Saddling Your Portfolio with a Costly ‘Risk Tax’ — and You Can’t Escape It
The opinion piece warns that President Donald Trump’s recent military strike on Iran has embedded a costly “risk tax” across all investment portfolios. By deploying hard power, the United States has heightened geopolitical uncertainty, forcing markets to price a higher...
Tariff Confusion: Mixed Signals and White House Denial
“We’re in a Schrodinger’s tariff right now.” One proclamation says “a 10% tariff on the rest of the world,” the next post says “a 15% tariff literally effective immediately,” then the White House pretends he never said it. The crack team...
The G-7 SPR Bluff: Why 300 to 400 Million Barrels Changes Nothing
The G‑7 is debating a coordinated release of 300‑400 million barrels from IEA strategic petroleum reserves to mitigate the Hormuz supply crisis. Historical draw‑down rates have never exceeded about 2 million barrels per day, meaning the release would cover only a fraction...
Two Things You Can Control Right Now When Fuel Is Trying to Break You
Diesel prices are edging toward $5 a gallon, squeezing margins for owner‑operators and carriers. While macro forces such as Middle‑East tensions and Fed policy are beyond a driver’s control, two levers remain: where fuel is purchased and how much is...
Bond Funds Draw Big Inflows Amid Mideast Tensions
Bond fund inflows surged to $5.8 billion in early March as investors fled heightened Middle‑East tensions and the threat to the Strait of Hormuz. Short‑term Treasury ETFs led the rush, with iShares SGOV pulling in $2.27 billion, while international and emerging‑market debt...
How Critical Are Critical Minerals in the Brazil-US Economic Relationship?
Policymakers and experts convened to examine how critical minerals shape the Brazil‑US economic partnership. Brazil’s abundant rare‑earth and battery‑grade mineral reserves are increasingly vital to the United States’ energy‑transition agenda. The discussion highlighted supply‑chain vulnerabilities, especially reliance on China, and...
US-China Trade Update: Imports, Exports, Fentanyl Flows, and Beyond
The Peterson Institute for International Economics hosted a virtual briefing that delivered fresh 2025 trade‑flow data between the United States and China, alongside analysis of fentanyl shipments and export‑control policies. Experts Chad Bown, Marcus Noland, Mary Lovely and Martin Chorzempa...
OWD's Africa Fertility Forecast Wildly Outdated
Our World in Data is usually one of the best sites on the internet, but this chart is kind of garbage. It just assumes slow fertility drops and low growth in Africa, when the first assumption is being falsified by...
U.S. Maritime Administrator Carmel Warns U.S. Must Rebuild Entire Maritime ‘System,’ Not Just Shipyards
U.S. Maritime Administrator Stephen Carmel warned that rebuilding American maritime power requires more than expanding shipyard capacity; the United States must reconstruct an entire maritime ecosystem. He highlighted that the U.S. now produces only 0.1% of global commercial ships and...
Repo Stress Forces UST Basis Trades to Unwind, Cut Duration
Macro: leveraged basis/swap trades in USTs unwind as repo stress. Drivers: regulation, supply surge, margin calls. Risk: disorderly USTs and deleveraging. Trade: reduce duration. — Viktor Kopylov, PhD, CFA More insights: t.me/si14Kopylov
Economic & Event Calendar in Asia Wednesday, March 11, 2026. Eyes on the Warmongers Again.
Asian markets will watch Japan’s wholesale price index (PPI) on March 11, with analysts expecting a modest softening that could signal easing inflation pressures. However, the primary market narrative is shifting toward heightened geopolitical risk after the United States destroyed...
Reopen Hormuz Strait, Not Ban Oil Exports
Want to understand what's going on with rising oil prices and Iran? I gave a full breakdown on @tbpn. The basics: • There is absolutely no substitute for reopening the Strait of Hormuz, whether through rapid victory or through a well-protected convoy. •...
SPX Reverses After 100‑Day MA, Lower Low Possible
$SPX - The rally continued today until it hit the 100 day MA, but then we had a bearish reversal and closed the day lower. The bottom isn't confirmed yet so there may still be a lower low this week....
Oil Rally Tests Diversification Strategy
In this episode, Serena Tang explains how a surge in oil prices could undermine the traditional negative correlation between stocks and bonds that investors rely on for diversification. She outlines how the pandemic-era co‑sell‑off of equities and bonds was driven...
Dollar's Downtrend Persists; Rallies Likely Temporary
The long-term outlook for the US dollar hasn’t changed. We remain in a major downtrend — something worth remembering during brief rallies like the one we just saw. The dollar is still sitting at a critical level, and these bouts of strength...
Hardball with Chris Matthews + Janelle Stelson Part 1
In this episode of Hardball, Chris Matthews interviews Pennsylvania congressional candidate Janelle Stelson, who discusses her narrow loss in the previous race and her strategy to defeat incumbent Scott Perry, a staunch MAGA figure. Stelson highlights Perry's controversial voting record...
Oil Shocks Historically Slash Equity Valuations
Taking a look back to the 1930’s, we can see the various oil spikes over time. The top panel shows the 5-year CAPE ratio, and the bottom panel shows nominal oil prices in brown, and inflation-adjusted oil prices in purple...
Hormuz Tensions Spike Oil, Pressure Global Markets
Oil prices are spiking as the frozen Straits of Hormuz has become the epicenter of the conflict. As of Sunday night’s futures open, WTI futures are trading at $108, which could make the...
When Fiscal and Monetary Policy Row Together–And Not
Christina Romer’s new paper reviews historic episodes where fiscal and monetary policy moved in tandem, showing that coordination only helps when both tools aim at the right goal. The Great Depression, 1970s stagflation, Volcker’s anti‑inflation campaign, and the 1990s deficit‑reduction...
Stagflation Looms as Iran Tensions Test Market Resilience
With the conflict in Iran becoming seemingly more contracted, the markets seem to be pricing in a less benign outcome despite what has been a Goldilocks backdrop of robust earnings growth, rising margins and productivity, hefty capex spending, an easing...
Trump and Israel Inadvertently Empower Iran
Required reading. Trump and Israel, in their infinite militant wisdom, have put Iran in a stronger position now than they were when the “combat operations” (can’t say “war”) started.
High Oil Prices Slightly Lift Inflation, Minimal GDP Hit
‼️$100 oil prices have a surprisingly modest impact on the US economy: A persistent oil shock through 2027 would push headline inflation up +0.7 percentage points at peak, while core inflation and unemployment each rise just +0.1 percentage points. Real GDP effect...
Venezuela and North Korea Lead Global Inflation Surge
#HankeInflationDashboard: By my measurements, this week's top 5 inflators are: 🇻🇪Venezuela — 668.1%/yr 🇰🇵North Korea — 111.3%/yr 🇮🇷Iran— 66.2%/yr 🇱🇾Libya — 65.9%/yr 🇨🇺Cuba — 47.4%/yr https://t.co/hmt2ECWysz
G7 Leaders Convene Video Call on Gulf War Energy Crisis
G7 head of state and/or government will hold a video call Wednesday to discuss the impact of the Third Gulf War, particularly around the “energy situation” and the Strait of Hormuz. The call is scheduled for 2pm GMT. I doubt this...
China's Export Surge Leaves Workers Facing Wage Cuts
Industrial policy FTW: "China's Tariff-Defying Export Boom Leaves Its Factory Workers Behind: Workers who powered a tariff-defying boom tell a grim story of falling wages and vanishing jobs." https://t.co/cIfJHANUgW https://t.co/ZIN1PXUzwE
Navy Halts Escorts, Raising Hormuz Supply‑Chain Risks
US Navy refusing to escort commercial ships thru the Strait. Saying the risk is too high. Is the end of the war not as close as some infer? Is supply chain risk escalating? Can a prolonged war fracture some of...
Iran Says Current Oil Disruption 4‑20× Worse than Past Crises
Foreign Minister of Iran claiming current oil disruption is 4-20x more severe than previous oil crises https://t.co/33VOGTSEeb
Brazil's High Money Supply Fuels Inflation Above Target
#BrazilWatch🇧🇷: Brazil's inflation is 4.4%/yr. That's ABOVE its 3.0% inflation target. Brazil’s M4 is growing at 9.4%/yr. That is ABOVE Hanke’s Golden Growth Rate of 7.1%/yr, a rate consistent with hitting its 3.0%/yr inflation target. INFLATION STORY = A MONEY SUPPLY STORY....
Tillis Hopeful Fed Hurdles Cleared for Warsh Chair Nomination
Sen. Thom Tillis (R-N.C.) said Tuesday he was hopeful that issues surrounding the Federal Reserve would be resolved, allowing Kevin Warsh’s nomination as central bank chair to move forward. https://t.co/7hUfth4Lf9
Mining Hormuz Could Reroute Global Trade Permanently
Iran. Laying mines in the Strait. Is there a point of too many mines that merchant shipping will avoid Hormuz post war? Time required to remove? Who will do it? Will the maritime risks force new ways to serve the...
Key CPI, US Budget, and T‑Note Sale Drive Tomorrow
Not an overly active global macro calendar for tomorrow, but an important one. Top of the list is the February #CPI release. Will also watch that US monthly budget statement and 10-year t-note sale. Japan has some worthy data as well...
High Commodity Prices Spell Trouble for Bonds
Assuming oil and commodity prices stay anywhere remotely close to current, bonds have a big problem. You should read @fejau_inc's piece.
Bolivia's New President Seeks Crisis Recovery, US Alignment
President @Rodrigo_PazP is attempting to lead #Bolivia out of an economic crisis and realign the country's foreign policy with Washington after two decades of socialist rule. Our interview with him from #ShieldoftheAmericas on Sunday. @sergiomendoza01 https://t.co/wmaCT239QF
Milei’s Inflation Surge Outpaces Even Hanke’s Growth Benchmark
Argentina’s inflation comes in at a RED HOT 32.4%/yr. Argentina’s money supply (M3) is growing at 38.7%/yr. That's WELL ABOVE Hanke's Golden Growth Rate of 14.8%/yr, a rate consistent with hitting its de facto 10%/yr inflation target. INFLATION = PRES. MILEI'S ACHILLES...
Envoy Witkoff Explains Iran War Origins and Future Talks
President Trump’s Special Envoy for Peace Steve Witkoff spoke to us in a wide ranging interview about how the war in Iran started, what’s at stake and what’s next for Russia/Ukraine talks https://t.co/wsZJtL7srT
China’s Rare Earths May Shorten US Iran Strikes
Could China’s rare earth supplies dictate how long US strikes on Iran go on? ..Washington had only two months of rare earths inventory, issue to dominate talks between Trump, Chinese President Xi. No duh. Not "Washington", dozens of US defind companies... https://t.co/NcUbH1CgJX
Oil Prices Swing Amid Naval Escort and Mine Threats
Crude Oil has to be impossible to trade right now Red = Transportation Secretary Chris Wright says the Navy escorted a ship through the Strait of Hormuz, -8.3% Blue = Social Media post deleted, +5.49% Green = repost below, potential mines in the...
Millionaires Now Pay Lower Taxes than Average Earners
As of Monday, millionaires are officially paying less taxes than the rest of us. https://t.co/x9lEkEmUoR
Container Diversions Jump 360% After Hormuz Closure
Container Shipping Diversions Surge 360% Amid Hormuz Closure. And the inland logistics to move all the loaded and empty containers? Including customs https://t.co/xjirN7c7am
Iran Mining Strait Could Fully Close Vital Shipping Lane
Uh. This would be REALLY bad. Up until now, traffic through the Strait has been functionally halted but it isn’t exactly *closed*, ships can are some are taking the risk. If Iran successfully mines the Strait, it’s *closed* closed.
Hormuz Closure Nullifies OPEC+ Supply Pledges
The Strait of Hormuz carries 20% of global oil demand. It's still closed. OPEC+ pledged 206K bpd in April. Middle East producers are cutting because storage is full. Supply math doesn't work when the pipe is shut. https://t.co/EMaJvlSk4u
US Navy Escort Uncertainty Threatens Global Trade via Hormuz
Hormuz Disruptions, US Navy Escort Plans (or lack of) and Impact on Global Trade 1⃣Strait of Hormuz Update: March 10, 2026 2⃣Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff General Caine Statement on Escorts 3⃣UNCTAD Report on Hormuz Shipping Disruptions Video: https://t.co/vS32XQeQDb https://t.co/ZfQwkBUMGW
Trump’s Spain Trade Threat Backfires on US Economy
Last week, Trump threatened to cut off trade with Spain over the use of military bases against Iran. It’s clear he didn’t realize that Spain is 1 of 12 countries for which the US has a positive trade balance. TRUMP = SHOOTS...