Today's Global Economy Pulse
Australia's April CPI eases to 4.2% as core inflation hits 2024 high
Australia’s consumer price index slipped to a 4.2% annual rise in April, missing the 4.4% consensus as a temporary fuel excise cut trimmed transport costs. At the same time, the trimmed‑mean core inflation gauge rose to 3.4% year‑over‑year, the highest level since late‑2024, keeping pressure on the Reserve Bank of Australia’s inflation target.
Dark Clouds Over Hawai‘i Tourism: Congressman Ed Case Warns of Impact on Visa Waiver Travelers
U.S. Representative Ed Case warned that a pending Department of Homeland Security rule could force Visa Waiver Program travelers to disclose extensive personal data, including up to five years of social‑media history. The proposal targets ESTA applicants and aims to boost pre‑flight security screening. Hawaii, which recorded 9.6 million visitors and $12 billion in economic activity in 2025, relies heavily on tourists from Japan, South Korea and Australia—key Visa Waiver partners. Case argues that added complexity may deter these high‑value travelers and harm the state’s tourism‑driven economy.
Countries Urge China to Curb Oil Reserve Purchases
Also, as the IEA releases, member countries are reaching out to China to make sure it doesn't use the opportunity to buy more barrels for its own reserve (as it did in 2022). (...the IEA-Chinese coordinate was last done in 2011...
Is Khamenei’s Killing Narrowing the Shia-Sunni Divide in South Asia?
The killing of Iran’s Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei by U.S.-Israeli forces sparked widespread protests across South Asia. In India, Bangladesh and Pakistan, Sunni‑majority crowds marched alongside Shia groups, chanting against the United States and Israel. Organizers framed the strike...
The Wisdom of Europe’s “Great Capitulation”
The European Union accepted an asymmetrical trade deal with the United States, lowering its residual tariffs while the US maintains high reciprocal tariffs. The arrangement prevents a retaliatory trade war and keeps European import costs modest. Analysts argue the deal...
ECB Preview: Time for a Panic Room in the ECB’s ‘Good Place’
The European Central Bank heads into its March 18 meeting facing a sharp shift in the macro backdrop as the Middle East war drives oil prices higher, removing any realistic chance of further rate cuts. Instead of fine‑tuning inflation forecasts,...
PBOC Employs Volatile Renminbi Fixing to Manage Iran War Fallout
China’s central bank has allowed the renminbi’s daily fixing volatility to surge to its highest level since December 2024, signalling a tolerance for two‑way price swings. The People’s Bank of China set the reference rate at 6.89 yuan per U.S. dollar,...
India Opens Door to More Chinese Investment After 6-Year Freeze
India announced a relaxation of its foreign investment rules, allowing Chinese firms to invest in a limited set of sectors after a six‑year freeze that began in 2020. The policy shift caps Chinese ownership at 49 percent in approved industries...
IOC, BPCL, HPCL Could See Margin Pressure Amid Oil Price Spike: S&P
S&P Global Ratings warns that India’s oil‑marketing firms IOC, BPCL and HPCL could see profit margins squeezed as they keep retail petrol and diesel prices steady amid a recent crude price surge. Crude oil jumped above $100 per barrel after...
Brazil, Saudi Arabia Team Up on Critical Minerals Mapping
Brazil and Saudi Arabia launch a critical minerals working group and seek Saudi funding for Brazil mapping. https://www.metalnomist.com/2026/03/brazil-saudi-arabia-to-cooperate-for.html
Iran Conflict Already Costing Global Tourism $600 Million Per Day, WTTC Warns
The World Travel & Tourism Council warns that the Iran conflict is wiping out roughly $600 million in international visitor spending each day. Airspace closures and flight cancellations are disrupting the Middle East’s role as a critical aviation crossroads, affecting hubs...
ECB Faces Three Paths: Hold, Modest Tighten, Panic Hike
We see three scenarios for the ECB. 1) They hold their nerve "in a good place". 2) They pull fwd the tightening that has long been priced into 27/28 and take the depo rate to the higher end of neutral...
Taxes on Smoking, Drinking, and Sugar Should Keep Tab on the Emerging Alternatives
Excise taxes on alcohol, tobacco and sugar remain a key tool for raising revenue and improving public health, especially in low‑income nations. However, the rapid emergence of products such as e‑cigarettes, nicotine pouches and low‑alcohol beverages is exposing gaps in...
ECB's Kazimir Signals Imminent Rate Hike, Ready to Act
🇪🇺 Not only did @KazimirPeter signal a strong ECB hawkish bias, but he said that every meeting should be alive after March. *ECB'S KAZIMIR SAYS RATE HIKE ON IRAN MAY BE CLOSER THAN THOUGHT "I don’t want to speculate about April or...
Southeast Asia and the Middle East Energy Shock
U.S. strikes on Iran have prompted Saudi Arabia, Qatar and the UAE to suspend oil and gas operations and deter tankers from the Strait of Hormuz, sharply curtailing Middle East energy exports. The disruption threatens $208 billion in crude shipments—about 21%...
Dutch Economy Enters Middle East Crisis From a Position of Strength
The Dutch economy posted stronger‑than‑expected Q4 2025 growth, buoyed by robust goods exports and solid government consumption, creating a positive carry‑over into 2026. Manufacturing output rose 0.4% in January and consumer sales improved despite muted retail sentiment. While the Middle‑East...
Retailers and Suppliers Urge Government Action on UK-India Trade Deal
The UK‑India free‑trade agreement, finalised in July 2025, promises to remove the 8‑12% duties on most Indian textiles, garments and footwear entering the UK. Retailers and suppliers, however, are frustrated by the still‑pending ratification in the UK Parliament, leaving tariffs...
Trump’s Iran War Is Costing American Taxpayers $1 Billion a Day as the National Debt Spirals Out of Control
The Iran war, launched by the United States and Israel, is costing U.S. taxpayers roughly $800 million to $1 billion per day, far exceeding budgeted amounts. Analysts estimate that a two‑month conflict would add about $65 billion in direct war spending plus $1.4 billion...
As some Hoard Petrol, Here’s Our Last Line of Defence Against a Fuel Shortage
Australia is rapidly constructing massive, windowless steel cylinders on the outskirts of its largest cities to store fuel. Each tank, up to 50 metres in diameter and ten storeys high, can hold tens of millions of litres of petrol. The...
IEA Reportedly Proposes Largest Ever Oil Stockpile Release
The International Energy Agency has proposed the largest ever release of strategic oil reserves to curb a price surge linked to the Middle East conflict. Oil prices slipped below $90 a barrel after the report, boosting equity markets. Governments are...
U.S. Customs to Refund IEEPA Tariffs Within 45 Days
U.S. Customs and Border Protection announced a new ACE‑based system to refund IEEPA tariffs within 45 days after a Court of International Trade ruling. The solution aggregates refunds by importer, bypassing the need to process each entry individually. Only about...
Rate Hike Forecasts Surge One Week Out From RBA Meeting
Borrowers face a likely interest‑rate increase as the Reserve Bank of Australia is expected to lift the cash rate by 0.25 percentage points at its March 26 meeting, taking it to 4.1%. Westpac and National Australia Bank have revised forecasts...
AI Threatens SaaS: Market Shift Signals New Risks
🚀 𝗭𝗲𝗿𝗼-𝘁𝗼-𝗛𝗲𝗿𝗼 𝗣𝘂𝗯𝗹𝗶𝗰 𝗣𝗼𝗿𝘁𝗳𝗼𝗹𝗶𝗼: 𝗙𝗲𝗯𝗿𝘂𝗮𝗿𝘆 𝟮𝟬𝟮𝟲 𝗨𝗽𝗱𝗮𝘁𝗲 𝗮𝗻𝗱 𝗚𝗹𝗼𝗯𝗮𝗹 𝗠𝗮𝗿𝗸𝗲𝘁 𝗡𝗲𝘄𝘀 Let’s break down what happened in the markets over the past month. ----- 🌏 A Shifting Global Landscape The SAASpocalypse — the fear that Artificial Intelligence will soon put Software Services companies out...
Dubai’s Economic Dynamism Will Help It Withstand Iran Conflict
Dubai’s economy has shifted from oil reliance to a diversified, high‑growth hub, posting 3.6% GDP growth in 2023 and 4% in 2024. The UAE’s free‑zone model, tax competitiveness and regulatory certainty have attracted global firms and AI‑focused investors such as...
Buying Time Till Iran Surrenders
Tomorrow the 32 International Energy Agency members will vote on a proposal to tap up to 400 million barrels from their strategic petroleum reserves, a release larger than the 240‑million‑barrel drawdown after Russia’s 2022 invasion of Ukraine. The IEA holds 1.8 billion...
Indian Edible Oil Buyers Move to Secure Prompt Shipments as Prices Surge
Indian edible‑oil buyers are accelerating shipments as vegetable‑oil prices and freight rates surge, fearing delays from the Middle East conflict. India, the world’s largest importer, is curbing fresh purchases of soy and sunflower oil, which could temper further price spikes...
Peter Lewis's - Money Talk - Wednesday 11 March. David Roche of Quantum Strategy & Myself Talking About the Implications...
Peter Lewis hosted a Money Talk podcast on March 11, 2026, featuring David Roche, President and Global Strategist at Quantum Strategy. Roche analyzed how the ongoing US‑Israel war could spill over to Iran, reshaping oil supply dynamics and broader economic...
UAE Economy Lags Behind Turkey and Iran, Data Shows
There are many narratives that are regularly spun by the spinners. One is that the UAE is more than a sunny place where shady people reside. Another is that it is a booming economy. Wrong. When you look at the data, the...
ECB Will Likely Misstep on Energy Price Policies
never bet against the ECB doing the wrong thing, particularly when energy prices are involved
PBOC Is Expected to Set the USD/CNY Reference Rate at 6.8824 – Reuters Estimate
The People’s Bank of China set the USD/CNY reference rate at 6.8824, a 35‑month low for the dollar and a record‑strength yuan. The fixing, announced around 0115 GMT, follows a managed‑float system that permits a ±2% trading band. By choosing...
Oil Markets Destabilized by Info War and Hormuz Closure
Spoke with Bloomberg earlier today about the IEA stocks release plan, the information war on top of the military conflict in the Mideast, the severe pricing dislocations in the oil market, plus the unfolding impact of the continued closure of...
Sánchez Dismisses Trump's US‑Spain Trade Cut‑off Threat
Sánchez rejects Trump’s threat to cut off US trade with Spain https://t.co/fIgEZES8mP via @rorihuela https://t.co/Fiix9DqEgG
Air Cargo Cushioned Tariff Shocks and Powered Trade Growth in 2025
IATA’s 2025 World Cargo Symposium report finds air freight was pivotal in cushioning severe trade‑policy shocks, enabling $157 bn of front‑loaded U.S. imports in Q1. By accelerating shipments and opening new lanes, air cargo helped global trade expand 2.4%, pushing global...
G7/G20 Vows to Curb Iran Oil Leverage
Inside the G7 (and the G20) most countries are absolutely livid with the Trump administration's attack on Iran, but don't mistake their indignation with a desire to let Iran take the global economy hostage via oil. G7/G20/OECD nations will respond...
Qatar's Ras Laffan Outage Tightens LNG Market, Spikes Prices
The world's largest LNG plant hasn't exported a shipment in five days. That's the longest streak since at least 2008 🇶🇦⚠️ Qatar shut its Ras Laffan facility last week after a drone attack The longer Qatar's outage continues, the tighter the market...
Aussie Real Wages Face Heavy Falls
Australia's wage price index shows real wages slipped 0.3% in 2025, leaving earnings about 6% below the pandemic‑era high of late 2011. The Reserve Bank of Australia’s February monetary policy statement signals no near‑term recovery, projecting real wages will stay...
Iranian Rial Jumps 17% After US‑Israeli Strikes
Since the first US-Israeli strikes on Iran just over 10 days ago, the Iranian rial has APPRECIATED by 17% against the USD. THE TRUMP-NETANYAHU ATTACKS ON IRAN = SURPRISING STRENGTH IN THE RIAL. https://t.co/BPJtg4MvGr
IEA to Release More Oil than Post‑Ukraine Invasion, Hormuz Closed
The IEA is preparing to release more oil than it did after Russia invaded Ukraine. The Strait of Hormuz remains closed to tankers. 🔒 Members-Only https://t.co/TcCIMKXR4l
Gina Raimondo on Bolstering US Competitiveness
Secretary of Commerce Gina Raimondo outlined how the United States must strengthen its competitive edge amid a multipolar world order. She warned that tariffs, once imposed, are politically sticky and likely to persist, while industrial policy will lean toward one‑time...
Former TPP Negotiator Offers Skeptical View on Trade Pact
A more skeptical take from my #CarnegieAsia colleague Barbara Weisel, who was, among other negotiating roles, the U.S. negotiator of TPP: https://t.co/qWfsfWFbf1
Don't Conflate War Talk with Strait of Hormuz Energy Debate
I feel like there’s war discourse and there’s Strait of Hormuz/energy discourse and some people are conflating the two in unhelpful ways even if they’re obviously linked.
Gulf War III Is a Warning About the Effects of a ‘Taiwan Straits War I’
The article warns that the economic shock from the Israel‑U.S. attack on Iran—dubbed Gulf War III—exposes how fragile global trade is when shipping routes are disrupted. It argues that a military move against Taiwan would create a similar, if not larger,...
New Interview Reveals Outlook for China's Economy
I was interviewed two weeks ago by Mark Sobel at OMFIF about the outlook for the Chinese economy. It just came out. https://t.co/d6LFlYcl14
IEA's Massive Oil Release Hinges on Single-Country Veto
IEA Proposes Largest Ever Oil Release From Strategic Reserves…but if one country objects then it won’t go through (kinda like OPEC…) https://t.co/wnthFedVaT
The Impact of Brexit on Foreign-Born Workers in the UK
New research by Portes and Springford (2026) uses synthetic difference‑in‑differences to quantify Brexit’s effect on foreign‑born workers. The study finds that EU‑origin employment fell by about 785,000 by 2024, while non‑EU employment grew by roughly 992,000, resulting in a modest...
Admin Allegedly Uses Vague War Comments to Control Oil Prices
If the administration’s strategy to keep oil prices down is to manipulate the market by making false and/or vague statements on social media about the war then well…points for creativity
US CPI Sparks Inflation Fears Amid Falling Oil Prices
Just when cooling oil prices promised a bit of relief to the market, the US CPI report threatens to revive inflation fears. #inflation #CPI #StockMarket #OilShock #crudeoil #macro #trading https://t.co/2xB2LsqJuF
China's Exports Soar 21.8%, Trump Trade War Backfires
China’s exports SURGED by 21.8% in the first 2 months of 2026. Trump’s international trade war is BACKFIRING. Thanks to Trump, CHINA IS WINNING THE TRADE WAR, BIG-TIME. https://t.co/h0s5xlnA1N
China’s Record 2025 Trade Surplus Fuels Ongoing Tensions
China’s Export Machine Keeps Pumping Ahead of Trump Visit—After record trade surplus in 2025, new figures suggest tensions will persist @LandersWSJ @TByGraceZhu https://t.co/siI2mnk49t https://t.co/siI2mnk49t
Natixis
Good morning (still in Hanoi), @NatixisResearch @natixis published our Global Cross-Expertise overnight & please take a read for our views on: Oil & gas Metals & Precious Metals Macro Impact (Asia, Middle East, Europe, US & LatAm) Financial Market Impact (equities, rates, FX).
Beijing Hesitates Spending to Limit Household Financial Autonomy
"Beijing is not allergic to spending. It is just not confident about spending that gives households too much autonomy over how to use the money." --@ZichenWanghere Very good read on the need for rural pension reform, among other things https://t.co/HMmzkQ9ZMn https://t.co/sEMkJotQeP