Today's Global Economy Pulse
Fed's Kashkari warns inflation remains far too high
Minneapolis Fed President Neel Kashkari told CNBC that headline CPI was 3.8% in April and core CPI rose 2.8% year‑over‑year. He said the persistent price pressure could unanchor consumer expectations and may force the Federal Reserve to act more aggressively.
How Are Geopolitics and AI Trends Impacting Leveraged Finance?
In this episode, JP Morgan’s Amaury Guzman, Kevin Foley (global head of capital markets) and Tarek Hamid (head of North American Credit Research) debrief the themes from their Global Leveraged Finance Conference, focusing on how heightened geopolitical risk—especially the Iran‑related oil shock—and the accelerating AI disruption are shaping leveraged finance. They note that while commodities have felt price spikes, credit spreads remain stable, but uncertainty is pressuring sectors like software and creating a “halo trade” in hard‑asset businesses. The panel discusses the current supply pipeline, noting high‑yield and investment‑grade spreads remain tight and investors remain hungry for new issuance, though the market’s appetite will hinge on how M&A activity and AI‑related sector shifts evolve. Finally, they emphasize JP Morgan’s product‑agnostic platform and risk‑aware approach to help clients navigate this volatile environment.
Inflation on Target, Yet Fed Likely Remains Hawkish
Inflation data in the U.S. has been released. Everything came in line with expectations. Right now, the market is more concerned not with current inflation, but with the risk that it could start rising again in March amid a - likely...
Core CPI Stays Modest, Hovering Around 2.5‑3%
A relatively tame CPI for February which is, of course, the before times. Annual rates for core: 1 month: 2.6% 3 months: 3.0% 6 months: 2.3% 12 months: 2.5%
Tariff Scenario Planning: 4 Strategies for SMB Leaders
Tariffs are reshaping cost structures and supply chains for small‑ and midsize‑businesses, turning agility into a survival imperative. The article proposes disciplined scenario planning as a leadership super‑power, outlining four distinct tariff environments that SMBs may face. Each scenario highlights...
Trade Tensions and Tariffs: What They Mean for Europe’s Startups
The U.S. Supreme Court overturned President Trump’s global tariff framework, leaving the 15% EU‑US tariff rate in limbo and prompting the European Parliament to pause ratification of the new trade pact. EU exports to the United States fell 25% in...
Iran Threatens US Tech, Could Trigger Market Sell‑off
🚨 Big Tech in Iran Crosshairs - Is a Market Sell-Off Coming? Everyone watched CPI today… but the real story is Iran. Tehran just warned U.S. tech facilities and banks in the Middle East could be next targets - naming companies...
Cool Inflation Report Is Old News In Hot War
The U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported underlying price growth of 0.2% in February, a slight dip to 0.216% versus the whisper forecast. The figure aligned with most economists’ expectations, easing concerns about a resurgence of core inflation. Despite the...
Foe or Friend? US-Turkey Bilateral Relations Seem Set to Improve as Interests Align
U.S.–Turkey relations are moving toward greater cooperation as shared strategic interests outweigh public rhetoric. An analysis of sixteen regional and global issues finds eleven areas of full alignment, four with friction and one mixed, yielding a net positive score. The...
Q&A with Rep. James Walkinshaw (VA-11)
Virginia Rep. James Walkinshaw, a first‑term congressman, has joined the bipartisan Caucus on US‑Turkish Relations and Turkish Americans. He argues the caucus can strengthen democratic norms in Turkey while leveraging the country’s strategic position in regional security. Walkinshaw stresses Congress’s...
Opec Keeps Forecasts Unchanged Despite Supply Outages
OPEC’s latest Monthly Oil Market Report leaves its global supply, demand and economic forecasts unchanged despite major supply disruptions in the Middle East Gulf following the US‑Iran conflict. The organization notes that geopolitical developments warrant close monitoring, but any impact...
Germany, Japan to Unblock Oil Reserves as G-7 Stands ‘Ready’ to Act
Japan and Germany announced they will tap strategic petroleum reserves to curb soaring crude prices amid the Iran‑Israel war, following an International Energy Agency request for a 400 million‑barrel release. Japan plans to act as early as March 16, while Germany will...
Mortgage Rates Climb to 6.19% in Biggest Gain Since September
U.S. 30‑year mortgage rates jumped 10 basis points to 6.19% in the week ending March 6, marking the steepest rise since September. The increase mirrors a sharp climb in the 10‑year Treasury yield, spurred by geopolitical tension after Iran’s conflict disrupted...
StoneX Slashes Global 2025/26 Sugar Surplus Forecast by 70%
Broker StoneX dramatically reduced its global sugar surplus forecast for the 2025/26 marketing year to 870,000 metric tonnes, down from the 2.9 million tonnes projected in January. The revision stems from a downward revision of Indian sugar production to 29.7 million tonnes,...
Spain Permanently Withdraws Ambassador as Rift with Israel Deepens
Spain announced on March 10 that it has permanently withdrawn its ambassador to Israel, leaving the Tel Aviv mission under a charge d’affaires. The decision follows a series of diplomatic confrontations, including Spain’s ban on weapons shipments to Israel and...
Real‑time Shelter Data Cuts Inflation Outlook to Under 2%
Update on our Alt Inflation Indicators: Real time shelter continues to run quite below official stats. We show more real time shelter running just +0.2% vs 3.0% in BLS stats. Subbing this alt shelter into CPI, we get headline inflation < 1.6%...
Since February, Rising Gas Prices Have Added to Inflation.
U.S. gasoline prices have surged 20% since the Feb. 28 strikes by the United States and Israel drove oil higher. The increase will not appear in the February CPI, which is released later this week, but it will feed into overall...
February Inflation Stagnates at 2.4% Amid Rising Costs
JUST IN: A cool February inflation reading. Inflation remained at 2.4% (y/y) in February, the same as January. This reading was before the war in Iran began, so gas prices were still below $3 average. -->Note that some items had larger...
China-Europe Rail Traffic via Russia Keeps Plummeting
China‑Europe rail freight via Russia fell sharply in 2025, with a 14.1% drop in total TEUs and a 22.7% plunge in eastbound shipments, reaching a historic low of 38,422 TEUs. Despite the volume decline, Chinese export value to Europe rose...
Mexico Is the Source of US Economic Growth
The Mexican Embassy highlighted that Mexico invested $61.7 billion in the United States in 2025 and that bilateral trade now totals $873 billion—roughly $1.7 million each minute. Mexico’s exports to the U.S. reach $535 billion while imports stand at $338 billion, meaning the U.S. buys...
Oil Climbs 2% as Iran Threatens Tech Sites, Reserves Released
Oil prices +2% - here’s the latest: ⚠️ Iran: Says it will target U.S. technology company facilities next, including $AMZN $MSFT $NVDA $IBM $ORCL $PLTR locations in Israel, Dubai, and Abu Dhabi 🛢️ Oil reserve release updates: 🇩🇪 Germany to partially release national...
Inflation, Iran and the Industrial Accelerator Act
In this episode of the Sound of Economics, former Dutch central bank governor Klaas Knopp and Bruegel director Jeremy Zentelmeier assess Europe’s economic outlook amid the new Israel‑Iran conflict, highlighting the region’s surprising resilience but warning of a negative supply shock from...
Canadian Dollar Poised to Outperform Amid Heavy Shorts
The reality is: If you like commodities, you should also appreciate resource-rich economies — and their currencies. Canadian “peso” poised to outperform while it remains one of the most heavily shorted currencies in the world today. You don’t need to tell me...
Wide Boundary News: The Iranian War, Rising Gas Prices, and the Single Point Failure
The latest Wide Boundary News episode examines the U.S. and Israeli military offensive against Iran and the resulting closure of the Strait of Hormuz, a chokepoint that handles roughly 20% of global oil and a significant share of LNG, sulfur...
A Trump-Xi Summit Nears, but China Doesn’t Know What Trump Wants
President Donald Trump and Chinese President Xi Jinping will meet from March 31 to April 2 in a summit that could extend their year‑long trade truce. Chinese officials say the White House has provided no clear agenda, leaving Beijing unsure...
China's 90% Model Undermines Global Industries
Industries don't collapse overnight. They are systematically pushed out. China's 90% Model works by building production capacity to meet 90% of global demand in a targeted sector. Chinese companies then flood markets and price at or below marginal cost—supported by subsidies, cheap...
Strait of Horm
US political leaders, the oil industry, and traders are waking up to what we advised clients in June: restoring oil and LNG flow in the Strait of Hormuz won't be quick or easy. A load-bearing assumption in global energy is...
Middle East War Intensifies, IEA Proposes a Coordinated Release of Strategic Reserves, G7 to Consider
The Middle East war intensified with three tankers attacked in the Strait of Hormuz, prompting the International Energy Agency to propose a coordinated release of 300‑400 million barrels from strategic reserves. The G7 will discuss the plan, which dwarfs the 180 million‑barrel...
UST 2s Offer Yield Above SOFR Funding Rate
Generally, this has been good value for UST 2s. Chart of yield less funding rate (SOFR) https://t.co/jPLWuxmxaW
War's Economics Explained: Theory Meets Today's Conflict
I'm not quite sure what to call this — a video essay, an explainer, or an econ lesson... It's my attempt to explain the economics of war — economic theories of how and why war occurs — and to use that...
US-Iran War Crimp LPG Supply, Hit Borosil’s Glass Production at Jaipur
Escalating hostilities between the United States, Israel and Iran have disrupted LPG shipments to India, prompting Oil Marketing Companies to issue a force‑majeure notice. Borosil Ltd, a major glass maker in Jaipur, said the shortage forced a temporary shutdown of...
Globalization Remains Resilient Amid Bloc Formation Talk
Toldja: "Globalization is proving resilient" https://t.co/IpMqFYjhJK The data's "a counter-narrative to politicians and analysts arguing that economic disengagement and the formation of new, distinct geopolitical blocs are happening in any seismic way" Twas always a silly idea. https://t.co/UcJgPpaAFP
Core CPI Hits 5‑Year Low, Yet 3‑Month Rate Rises
Two asterisks to what would normally be considered a fairly decent CPI report. First, obviously, this was before the economic fallout from the Iran war. Second, the very favorable data imputation in the October report (due to the govt shutdown) unwinds after...
IEA Proposes Record Release of Oil Reserves
The episode focuses on the International Energy Agency's proposal to release a record 400 million barrels of oil from member countries' strategic reserves to counter a sharp price surge caused by the near‑closure of the Strait of Hormuz after Iranian attacks....
China’s 2025 Car Exports Eclipse Germany Despite Population Advantage
Yes, the numbers are that crazy. Not impossible obviously, but crazy. The increase in China's vehicle/ car exports over the course of 2025 was ~ 2m cars and it acceletated toward the end of the year. ...
Utilities Soar, Gasoline Drops; CPI Modestly Up
Price changes over last year (February CPI report) Gas Utilities: +10.9% Fuel Oil: +6.2% Electricity: +4.8% Medical Care: +4.1% Food away from home: +3.9% Shelter: +3.0% Overall CPI: +2.4% Food at home: +2.4% Transportation: +2.2% New Cars: +0.5% Used Cars: -3.2% Gasoline: -5.6%
Türkiye’s Textile Exports Hold Firm Despite Global Headwinds
Turkey’s textile and raw material exports generated $11.4 bn in 2025. This represents a modest 0.8 % decline from 2024, the smallest dip in a decade. The Istanbul Textile and Raw Materials Exporters’ Association (İTHİB) attributes the performance to resilient demand and...
Westward Gulf Pipelines Become Critical in Coming Weeks
In the coming days and weeks, a lot may hinge on the pipelines running West from the Gulf. Chartbook Top Links of the day just dropped: https://t.co/olUgBDf1dD
Unbalanced Globalization Persists: Insights From PGIM’s Daleep Singh
A conversation between me and PGIM's Daleep Singh (recorded before the bombs started falling on Tehran) that covers a number of big macro themes -- including the persistence of an unhealthy and unbalanced forms of globalization. https://t.co/9i02acEiiE
Europe’s Fossil Dependence Exposes Vulnerability, Urging Faster Energy Transition
I was interviewed by @AlJazeera on impacts of Middle East crisis on energy markets. We discussed Europe’s structural vulnerability due to fossil fuel imports, broader economic effects of energy price volatility & why this moment should sharpen focus on the energy...
Post-War Recovery: Trust Lags, Trade and Cooperation Suffer
Even if the war ends fast, “normal” won’t fully return. Trust and relationships are slow to rebuild, and that shows up as less trade, less cooperation, and more expensive risk management. https://t.co/mIgNA1yJph
Iran's Hormuz Control Boosts Oil Exports Beyond Pre-War Levels
Iran’s Control of Hormuz Means It’s Exporting More Oil Today Than Before the War https://t.co/UlXJwHN0ld
US Fertilizer Prices Surge with Global Market Trends
"Farmers Face Skyrocketing Fertilizer Prices," https://t.co/CYP8u85BYC "Even when the United States is not directly importing fertilizer from the Middle East, domestic prices still follow global markets." 😲 https://t.co/5N5ApqoDhL
War Sparks Call for Coordinated Oil Reserve Release
Middle East War Intensifies, IEA Proposes a Coordinated Release of Strategic Reserves, G7 to Consider: The dollar is mixed as the North American session is about to begin. Heightened expectations of a rate hike next week have lifted the Australian...
Greece Sets Profit Margin Caps on Fuel, Groceries
Greece to impose cap on profit margins for fuel and groceries https://t.co/PeATWo5wZT via @NikasSotiris https://t.co/SdRCwkzf2I
AUD Hits Two-Year High on Looming Rate Hike
$AUD reached its best level since June 2022 amid heightened expectations of a rate hike next week. $USD more broadly mixed. PBOC lows USD fix again. US CPI seems dated but will show floor before the war....
IEA Report Signals Shift From Oil Oversupply to Shortages
From oversupply to concern of shortages - IEA oil stocks release is coming, sources say https://t.co/ttzyIWK0qw
Germany Can Endure Short Iran Conflict, DIW Says
Germany can weather Iran war if it doesn’t last, DIW says https://t.co/p2s5WEREa5 via @KowalczeKamil https://t.co/Tgo1ceqVj6
Russian Oil Tax Price Tops Budget Target Amid Iran War
MOSCOW, March 11 (Reuters) - The price of Russian oil used for taxation has exceeded the budget target for the first time since January 2025 because of the rise in global prices caused by the Iran war, Reuters calculations showed...
China's Trade Surplus Grows as Property Recovery Stalls
Frustrating. China won't use the "clean" balance sheet of the central government to support a real recovery from the prolonged property market slump. The net result: a rising trade surplus supports China's growth at the expense of its trading...
EU Mulls Gas Price Cap to Cut Power Bills
EU weighs a gas price cap to lower power costs amid Iran war https://t.co/3qDLf3s6Jq via @johnainger https://t.co/A2PK57MYOp