Today's Global Economy Pulse
Australia's April CPI eases to 4.2% as core inflation hits 2024 high
Australia’s consumer price index slipped to a 4.2% annual rise in April, missing the 4.4% consensus as a temporary fuel excise cut trimmed transport costs. At the same time, the trimmed‑mean core inflation gauge rose to 3.4% year‑over‑year, the highest level since late‑2024, keeping pressure on the Reserve Bank of Australia’s inflation target.
Explainer: How Global Shipping Is Financing China’s Navy without Knowing It
Global shipping’s reliance on Chinese Tier‑1 shipyards is simultaneously financing the People’s Liberation Army Navy. CSIS data shows these yards produce 40% of China’s commercial tonnage while building virtually every major warship, generating $165 billion in export revenue from 2019‑2024. Freight‑rate spikes from Red Sea and Hormuz disruptions drive carriers toward China’s capacity‑constrained yards, reinforcing a loop that subsidizes naval construction. With China holding over 80% of containership orders through 2033, the commercial‑military nexus is deepening rapidly.
US Iran Ops Reveal Global Economy’s Fragile Bottlenecks
3 terrifying reasons the US military operations in Iran expose the fragility of global economics. Mainstream theory assumes a world of abundance and perfect competition. The reality is that our global supply chains rely on massive physical bottlenecks. From the single...
![[Sara Albrecht] Refund Tariffs the Right Way](/cdn-cgi/image/width=1200,quality=75,format=auto,fit=cover/https://wimg.heraldcorp.com/news/cms/2026/03/11/news-p.v1.20260311.e651f3bd62dd42b0826c913d354b87aa_T1.jpg)
[Sara Albrecht] Refund Tariffs the Right Way
The U.S. Supreme Court ruled recent tariffs unlawful, exposing a legal gap in how to reverse the economic fallout. Illinois Governor JB Pritzker proposes $1,700 checks for each household, totaling about $8.7 billion, to reimburse alleged consumer overcharges. The article argues refunds...
US Committed to EU Trade Deal, Top Trump Official Tells Brussels
The United States reaffirmed its commitment to the EU‑U.S. trade agreement in a call between Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent and EU trade chief Maroš Šefčovič. The deal, signed last summer at Turnberry, caps European export tariffs at 15 percent and...
UN Security Council Demands Iran Halt Attacks on Gulf States
The United Nations Security Council adopted a resolution on March 12 demanding that Iran immediately stop its attacks on Gulf states and cease any interference with navigation through the Strait of Hormuz. The measure passed with 13 votes in favor...
Wednesday - March 11, 2026
In this episode of the Dividend Cafe, host Brian Seitel reviews the latest market volatility driven by geopolitical tensions in Iran and rising energy prices, while noting that overall equity indices have been relatively flat. He breaks down the February...
Mortgage Rates Near 2026 Highs as Bond Yields Climb
Bond yields are back near their highest levels of 2026. Mortgage rates are also close to their 2026-highs, with MND putting the 30-year fixed at 6.19% today, just 2 bps below its peak thus far this year. There's a decent chance mortgage...
US Customs Duties Surge to $308B, Refunds Looming
The US collected a record $308 billion in customs duties over the last 12 months, which was 276% higher than what was collected in the 12 months prior ($83 billion). Who is paying this tax and how much of it will...
Oil Shock, Inflation Pressures Dampen RBI Rate-Cut Hopes
India’s central bank faces mounting pressure to pause its rate‑cut cycle as West‑Asia oil price shocks reignite inflation concerns. A surge in Brent crude, coupled with fading food‑price base effects, threatens to push consumer inflation above the RBI’s 4% target....
Market Holds Amid Chaos, One Final Rally Ahead
- Mixed Earnings - New Fed Chair - Multiple sectors collapsing - Aggressive Middle East War - Venezuela invaded - China challenging the US Dollar - US tariffs deemed illegal - Precious metals going parabolic - Oil spiking - $VIX running to 35 - Crypto completing an ABC correction And...
IEA Plans to Release 400 Million Barrels of Oil to Curb the Impact of War in Iran
The International Energy Agency announced it will release 400 million barrels of oil from members' emergency reserves, the largest drawdown in its history and more than double the 2022 release for Ukraine. The volume represents roughly 20 days of oil...
How Putin Views Trump’s War in Iran
The United States, under Donald Trump, launched a war against Iran that immediately killed Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei, prompting Vladimir Putin to issue a rare public condemnation while acknowledging that the conflict mirrors his own vision of a rule‑by‑force world....
How South Africa Is Navigating the Iran War
South Africa is walking a diplomatic tightrope as the United States‑Israel war with Iran intensifies, keeping a non‑aligned posture while trying to repair strained ties with Washington. President Cyril Ramaphosa has launched a probe into Iran’s participation in BRICS+ naval drills...
West Asia Conflict Could Hurt Agri Input Availability: UPL Executive
Escalating tensions in the Strait of Hormuz have driven global fertilizer prices up 50‑80%, raising the cost of key agricultural inputs. Shipping rates, marine insurance and energy prices have also surged, creating pressure on agro‑chemical supply chains. UPL Group’s COO,...
US Senate Democrats Push for Answers on Strike Targeting Iran Girls' School, Civilian Casualties
Nearly every Senate Democrat signed a letter to Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth demanding a swift investigation into a February 28 airstrike that hit a girls' school in Iran, killing dozens of children. Reuters reports U.S. investigators now consider it likely that U.S....
Seafarer Deaths Surpass US Casualties, Strait Reopening Uncertain
1/6 Ten seafarers have now been killed in 13 attacks on merchant vessels since the Iran conflict erupted on February 28 — more than the 7 U.S. servicemen killed in the war. The focal point is shifting: can the Strait of...
Trump Says He Is Not Worried About Iran-Backed Attacks on US Soil
President Donald Trump told reporters he is not worried about potential Iran‑backed attacks on U.S. soil, despite an FBI alert warning California police of possible drone strikes on the West Coast. The warning follows U.S. and Israeli airstrikes on Iranian...
Rotterdam’s 2025 Container Performance Reveals Structural Trade Shifts
Rotterdam’s 2025 container statistics show a structural reorientation of global trade, with imports rising 3.9% while exports continue to fall, especially to Asia. The export slump has widened the import‑export gap by 1.47 million TEU, increasing empty‑container circulation. Carrier alliance reshuffles...
Ghana: Rebalancing of Gold Reserve Not Loss of National Asset - Governor
Ghana’s central bank announced a rebalancing of its international reserves, converting a portion of its gold holdings into foreign exchange. The move follows a Domestic Gold Purchase Programme that lifted gold stocks from 8.7 tonnes to over 40 tonnes, with a 62%...
Rising Yields Signal Dollar Surge, Growth De‑Risking Continues
Bonds fall on growth fears and rise on recession fears - as a rule of thumb. But that’s under monetary dominance, not fiscal dominance. The new rulebook will look very much like February into the April tariff terror event where dollar and bonds...
You Can Just Do Things
The piece argues that the United States’ recent military actions against Iran are a continuation of a long‑standing American imperial habit that disregards international norms. It frames former President Donald Trump as both a symbol and accelerator of this “late‑imperial...
Will Iran War Make the UK Cost of Living Crisis Worse? – The Latest
The looming conflict between Iran and Israel is pushing global oil prices higher, stoking concerns that the United Kingdom’s cost‑of‑living crisis could deepen. Analysts warn that tighter energy markets may lift household electricity and gas bills, while inflationary pressure could...
GEP: Global Manufacturing Levels Rose in February, Led by Asia
The GEP Global Supply Chain Volatility Index shows global manufacturing activity rose in February, driven by a surge in Asian factories that reached the busiest level since October 2022. North America’s index slipped into negative territory, indicating under‑utilized supplier capacity,...
Full Employment Requires Taming Inflation, Not Rate Cuts
My full write up on inflation. Important to remember that we can not sustain or obtain full employment unless inflation is detailed. For those arguing the #FOMC should cut to shore up employment and ease inequality. Cuts in late 2024...
Desensitized by Media, Markets Sleepwalk as Prices Surge
The internet and social media has desensitized humans to a lot of things. I don’t think we grasp just how crazy the stuff that’s going on is and the fact that it’s broadcast for the world to see in real-time. Markets...
War in Iran and Afghanistan Threatens Central Asia’s Gateway to Global Markets
The escalating war between Iran and the Taliban‑Pakistan front is jeopardizing Central Asia’s planned southbound trade routes. Ongoing fighting threatens the Uzbekistan‑Afghanistan‑Pakistan railway, the TAPI gas pipeline, and the CASA‑1000 power line, while U.S.–Israel attacks on Iran disrupt shipping and...
Rapid Deep Dive: Reopening Hormuz Strait Energy Implications
So much energy geopolitics, a weekly show is not enough. Check out our new rapid response deep dive on key Iran-related energy questions like this episode’s look at what it would take to reopen the strait of Hormuz. Great...
Stiglitz Warns War‑driven Price Spikes and AI Bubble
OUT NOW - how @JosephEStiglitz sees it: - higher oil & food prices and "Economic Chaos" are serious risks of U.S.-Iran War - "significant probability" AI is in a bubble Apple https://t.co/7Ewtn8N1AT Spotify https://t.co/3AKmC9yw2d YouTube https://t.co/yR3j6zbCrB 1/3 https://t.co/7fTyMMYBkK
Hormuz Closure Could Redefine US‑Iran Power Balance
The Strait of Hormuz is turning into the key test of strength between the US and Iran. I've been thinking about what happens if it stays closed for an extended period. My conclusions might surprise you. https://t.co/mPXBo8HuqY
Iran Targets US Markets; Conflict Strains Credit Channels
March 3, 2026 edition of FFTT: "Iran doesn't need to defeat the US military; just the UST market" March 11, 2026: "S&P has warned that the Middle East conflict is beginning to strain credit channels across multiple sectors" https://t.co/pnftNUeht5
US Federal Deficit Hits $1 Trillion in First Five Months
In the first 5 months of the 2026 Fiscal Year the US Federal Government took in $2.1 trillion and spent $3.1 trillion. Don’t try this at home. https://t.co/nGKPLUJ4vh
Truce Hangs on Unlikely Iranian Nuclear Commitment
and if Israel & US truce depends on Iran pledging no more nuclear program does anyone believe this?
Oil Pricing Shifted From Negotiations to OPEC Quota Control
yes, it did but it was also followed by a complete revolution in how oil prices were set. Before oil companies negotiated a posted price with OPEC. Afterwards OPEC set prices thru production quotas I♥️historical comparisons, but not everything is directly...
Orban Likely to Amplify Kremlin‑Fueled Ukrainian Conspiracy Claims
Knowing that the Kremlin has sent its political strategists to help him, I’m afraid Orban may soon start pushing even more deranged nonsense, things like a “Ukrainian terrorist attacks” in Hungary or a “Ukrainian assassination attempt” against him.
Core PCE May Hit 3.4% YoY by Q2
BNP PARIBAS: “.. We think core #PCE could climb to 3.4% y/y by Q2, a striking implication of the hot PCE-relevant components that complicates the Fed’s policy path. We see upside risk to this estimate if the oil-price shock persists.”...
US Price Lag Could Shrink, but Strait Closure Threatens Economy
US price-to-production response is typically ~6 months. In an exceptional situation, like now, maybe we could get that down to ~4 months? But if the Strait is still closed in 4 months the entire global economy is pretty well screwed.
CPI Climbs on Food, Energy; OER Masks True Inflation
CPI Inflation Rose on Food & Energy Prices, even before Gasoline Price Spike. YoY still Pushed Down by Bad-Joke OER. The Bad-Joke of Owners Equivalent of Rent (OER) explained https://t.co/Drnu0dnRE2 https://t.co/nyv8tW3qx5
Rising Oil Prices Boost Putin as Sanctions Ease
High oil prices are great for Putin. At $85 per barrel, Urals oil price is now the highest since 2022. High prices also mean the EU's maritime services ban in its 20th sanctions package is dead and pressure in the...
Misguided US Tariffs Spawn Costly Refund and Calculation Services
So, now I'm seeing ads for IEEPA tariff refunds and US tariff calculation work. On the one hand, the market works. On the other hand, this is costly and only necessary because of misguided US tariff policy https://t.co/nU32IBGoFO
Iran‑Hormuz Tensions Threaten Global Supply Chains, Manufacturers Must Act
The Iran conflict and the Strait of Hormuz could have major supply chain implications. Lisa Anderson explains why this global shipping chokepoint matters—and what manufacturers should be thinking about now. Watch the Supply Chain Byte. #SupplyChain #Geopolitics #Manufacturing https://t.co/hLUT5Rpp0T
Treasury Confirms New Tariffs, USTR Prewrites Justifications
No suspense here, seeing as the Treasury Secretary already confirmed that these "investigations" will result in new tariffs. The only question is how USTR will justify the conclusions the White House has already written
Preparedness Can Mitigate Hormuz Closure Impacts
Employ America Statement on the Coordinated IEA Release. https://t.co/goQS5uJUUS No stockpile release can compare to the closure of the Strait of Hormuz, but with the right preparation, there are still ways to make it helpful at the margin. https://t.co/K549sAsIrM
Top Economist Warns Imminent Oil Shock and Stagflation
Interview coming out very soon with legendary economist (by some objective measures he is #1 economist of all time) He has severe concerns about an oil shock & stagflation
Excessive Fuel Subsidies Threaten Fiscal Stability
If governments lean too hard into fuel subsidies this is going to shift from necessary demand destruction to rolling fiscal crises.
EU Considers Lifting Sanctions on Dutch Oil Trader
Sanctions news: EU is weighing lifting its Russian sanctions against oil trader Niels Troost. Diplomats told the FT the designation of the Dutch trader was "legally weaker" than other listings. Discussions on-going. Decision subject to approval by 17 March https://t.co/JxBkaf5Xzx
Kazakhstan Boosts OPEC+ Output, Iran War Cuts Exports
OPEC+ crude production rose more than 400 kbpd m/m in February according to just-released OPEC data, with the bulk driven by the ongoing Kazakh recovery. Unfortunately it's immediately worthless given GCC crude exports were throttled immediately thereafter by Iran War. https://t.co/jTQxOjrt4b
Thai Ship Burns Near Oman Amid Hormuz Transit Controversy
for whom?! Iranian tankers shipping Iranian oil? Right now there's a Thai cargo ship on fire off the Coast of Oman that tried to transit the Strait of Hormuz. Maybe ask them if they think its working out "very well"
Trump Doubts Iranian Mines, Urges Tankers Through Hormuz
President Donald Trump said he didn’t believe Iran was laying mines in the Strait of Hormuz. Asked Wednesday whether Iran had laid mines in the strait, Trump told reporters, “We don’t think so. Trump also urged oil companies to send their...
Diesel Spikes 96¢/Gal, Straining U.S. Supply Chains
Diesel prices for U.S. truckers rose a record 96 cents a gallon this past week, a sign of the financial strains hitting supply chains following the U.S. and Israeli attacks on Iran. https://t.co/C9K90LaXGX
Conflict Is a Supply Shock, Not Demand‑driven Inflation
“More specifically, this conflict represents a supply shock, not demand driven inflation, which from a monetary policy perspective makes a very significant difference, as a supply shock will reduce demand, consumption, and consequently growth.” - Rieder