Today's Global Economy Pulse
Australia's April CPI eases to 4.2% as core inflation hits 2024 high
Australia’s consumer price index slipped to a 4.2% annual rise in April, missing the 4.4% consensus as a temporary fuel excise cut trimmed transport costs. At the same time, the trimmed‑mean core inflation gauge rose to 3.4% year‑over‑year, the highest level since late‑2024, keeping pressure on the Reserve Bank of Australia’s inflation target.
FINANCIALS: Black & Blue Owl
The International Energy Agency (IEA) has launched a historic 400 million‑barrel emergency oil release, the largest in its 52‑year history, after the Strait of Hormuz closure removed roughly 20 million barrels per day from global supply. Brent crude rose $6.50 to $98.68, reflecting market skepticism that the conflict will be brief. Meanwhile, the U.S. private‑credit market now holds about $2 trillion in assets, with retail investors accounting for roughly one‑third, and defaults are beginning to climb. Prominent financiers such as Lloyd Blankfein and Jamie Dimon warn that the credit environment could echo pre‑2008 vulnerabilities.
The Federal Budget Wins From War but You Lose
Alex Joiner, chief economist at IFM Investors, argues that the recent surge in energy prices is boosting Australia’s federal budget while simultaneously eroding household purchasing power. Higher gas prices are expected to lift export earnings and improve the nation’s terms...
PETER LEWIS' MONEY TALK - Thursday 12 March 2026
In this episode of Peter Lewis' Money Talk, host Peter Lewis talks with Andrew Freris, CEO of Ecognosis Advisory, and Nick Marro, Principal Economist for Asia at the Economist Intelligence Unit about the recent fuel subsidy crisis in Vietnam and...
Supply Shocks and Politics Won’t Push Oil Prices Down
exploding tankers, the us releasing 40% of its remaining oil reserve, and trump bragging about how well things are going: not indications for low oil prices.
GEOPOLITICS DOESN'T CHANGE PRICES IN THE LONG-RUN?
The piece argues that geopolitical shocks, while capable of causing short‑term commodity price spikes, do not alter the long‑run pricing trajectory, which is anchored in supply‑demand fundamentals, technological progress, and investment cycles. It cites historical data showing oil, copper and...
US Tariff Reprieve Leads to Opportunity, and Scepticism, in China’s Exports Hubs
A U.S. Supreme Court ruling trimmed the weighted tariff on Chinese goods from 32.4% to 22.3%, creating a temporary reprieve through July. Some exporters, like equipment maker Chen Zhuo, are accelerating shipments to lock in lower duties, while others remain...
Is Beijing Stepping up Island Building in South China Sea After 10-Year Pause?
Satellite imagery shows China rapidly expanding Antelope Reef in the Paracel Islands, deploying more than 30 dredgers and construction vessels. The reclamation effort, the first major South China Sea project since Beijing announced a halt over a decade ago, appears...
Presidents' Endless Pledge: Balancing the Budget, Year After Year
“The Federal Government cannot continue to spend more money than it takes in.” - Jimmy Carter (1978) “For decades we have piled deficit upon deficit, mortgaging our future and our children's future.” - Ronald Reagan (1981) “We must bring the Federal budget...
Stress‑test Margins for Hidden Energy, Rate, Regulatory Shocks
Have you asked yourself this? “How robust are our operating margins and cash positions if this so-called 2.4% US inflation is merely a lagging indicator, and we’re confronted with a sustained 20% energy cost shock, still-high interest rates, and regulatory upsets...
Morning Brief Podcast: SPRs to LPG: How Far Will History’s Biggest Oil Shock Reverberate?
The Morning Brief podcast examines an unprecedented oil shock triggered by the effective closure of the Strait of Hormuz, cutting more than 10 million barrels of crude per day—about twice the 1956 Suez disruption. With virtually no spare production capacity, Brent crude...
Hormuz Closure Cripples Oil Markets Amid Ongoing Crisis
hardly the "win" to boast of when the Strait of Hormuz remains closed, oil markets and everything downstream plus several other key commodities are buckling under extreme strain, the Mideast is on fire, and there is no end in sight...
Equities Overpriced Amid 1970s‑Style Rate Surge
In case you have not noticed yet, we are reliving the 1970s with interest rates heading higher and commodity prices blasting off In the 1970s U.S. equities rattled back and forth in a 50% range U.S. equities are overpriced now -- but...
The Role of Spending Rigidity in Fiscal Adjustment
Public debt has surged to record levels, while government wage bills remain rigid, averaging 10% of GDP across OECD nations. New research by de Mello and Jalles shows that higher wage‑bill ratios blunt the primary balance response to rising debt, especially...
Tankers Attacked, Brent Nears $100, Middle East Risk Spikes
Brent crude #oil is flirting dangerously close to the $100/bbl level once again after two tankers were attacked in Iraqi waters, underscoring the broader risks to energy assets across the Middle East and overshadowing a record oil release from the...
Oil Spike Fuels Inflation Fears, Squeezes Stocks
Crude oil prices rose - feeding inflation fears and punishing the stock market- despite an IEA release of 400 million barrels from emergency stockpiles. Now what? #crudeoil #oilprices #IranWar #stocks #stockmarket #inflation #macro #trading #dollar https://t.co/jccqS0V3d3
Chinese Firms with Success in Go-Global Efforts Poised to Reap Profit Rewards
Chinese mainland‑listed firms are set to outpace Hong Kong peers in earnings, driven by aggressive overseas expansion and a commodity price boom. Bloomberg estimates the CSI‑300’s average profit growth could hit 6.3 % in 2025 versus just 2 % for the Hang Seng....
Iran Conflict Fuels Gulf Tanker Attacks, Crude Surge
About to jump on CNBC @asiasquawkbox to talk about the Iran War, the Strait of Hormuz, the latest tanker attacks in the Gulf, and tonight’s jump in the price of crude. Tune in! https://t.co/myMaR7VRA7
SPR Release Announcement Triggers Panic, Fuels Oil Prices
In case you are wondering why oil prices continued to rise despite the US announcement of a massive SPR release: In the SPR literature, more than 30 years ago, experts warned that announcing an SPR release might signal crisis and cause...
US Launches Section 301 Tariff Probe Targeting China, EU, Mexico, Japan and Others
The United States has opened a Section 301 investigation into alleged manufacturing overcapacity across 16 trading partners, including China, the EU, Japan, and Mexico. The probe gives the administration authority to impose new tariffs if state‑backed excess production is deemed...
Money Supply Drives Inflation, Though Lags Vary
My take on the MONEY SUPPLY: "The money supply is always the cause of inflation. There are long and variable lags between changes in the money supply and changes in inflation." THE INFLATION STORY = A MONEY SUPPLY STORY. My latest with @JanetOnTheMoney...
Physical Supply Shortage Freezes Oil Market Despite Premiums
The oil market isn’t clearing Available barrels are being offered at extreme premiums, but refiners are refusing to buy When prices rise this fast, markets freeze. The problem isn’t cost. It’s physical supply. https://t.co/bjYMZAsRUg #OilMarkets #EnergyCrisis #Hormuz #Geopolitics #EnergySecurity
US to Release 172m Barrels From SPR over 3 Mths as US Intelligence Says Iran Regime Stable
The United States will release 172 million barrels from its Strategic Petroleum Reserve over the next 120 days, joining a 400‑million‑barrel drawdown coordinated by the International Energy Agency. The emergency release aims to ease the sharp rise in crude prices...
President Tariffs Still Active; 301s Have Anchor
Of course they are. In case anyone thought President Tariffs was actually done with tariffs. But at least 301s have an anchor.
Hormuz Closure Disrupts Global Energy, Food, Metal Supplies
Good morning from Hong Kong. Day 13 of the Iran War. Hormuz effectively closed, impacting not just global energy supply chain but also food and metals. https://t.co/yXfDXHwzMN
The Philippines: DEFA to Build a Resilient and Inclusive Digital ASEAN
ASEAN negotiators convened in Manila to advance the Digital Economy Framework Agreement (DEFA), refining the draft over three days and targeting a November signing at the ASEAN Summit. The framework is designed to capture Southeast Asia’s projected $2 trillion digital economy...
Cleveland Fed Sees 2.87% CPI, 60th Month Above Target
The Cleveland Fed is now forecasting a 2.87% CPI inflation rate for March, up from 2.4% in February. That will be the 60th consecutive month (5 straight years) with inflation above the Fed's 2% target. There's no way Powell cuts...
Iran Keeps Oil Flowing as Gulf Supplies Stall
“Winning like never before”? Iran keeps exporting oil through Hormuz Saudi, Iraqi, and Gulf supplies stall and global shipping freezes. Control of the chokepoint looks very different from the victory narrative. https://t.co/XWciH00m2o #IranWar #OilMarkets #Hormuz #EnergySecurity #Geopolitics
Iran Raises Stakes on Hormuz in Oil Price Narrative Battle
Iran has escalated its rhetoric and threats around the Strait of Hormuz, a chokepoint that moves roughly one‑fifth of the world’s oil and LNG. The move is part of a broader narrative battle with the United States amid the ongoing...
South Africa Summons New US Ambassador over ‘Undiplomatic Remarks’
South Africa’s foreign ministry summoned U.S. ambassador Leo Brent Bozell III after he labeled the "Kill the Boer" chant hate speech and likened Black Economic Empowerment policies to apartheid. The move underscores a widening diplomatic rift amplified by the Trump...
Trump’s Iran War Pushes Petrol Past $3.50 in Test of US Voter Patience
President Trump’s decision to intensify military pressure on Iran sparked a sharp rally in global oil markets, pushing U.S. gasoline prices above $3.50 per gallon for the first time in years. The price surge coincided with the lead‑up to the...
Markets Reveal Signals on Iran War and US Role
A pretty great conversation with @ed_elson_ and the FT's Katie Martin about what financial markets can tell us at critical moments, and what they're telling us about the war in Iran and America's place in the world. https://youtu.be/Jr7X0tlOl1k?si=9FjFHp0n13n6dPoL
Market Ignores Good News, Flags Geopolitical Risk
Today the market got exactly what it wanted: inflation right on target at 2.4%. And it still fell. Oil surged 7% to $89.50. Ships were struck near the Strait of Hormuz. The FBI warned about Iranian drone attacks on U.S....
How the Iran War Could Jack Up Prices on Store Shelves
The Iran‑driven conflict has effectively shut down traffic through the Strait of Hormuz, a chokepoint that handles roughly half of the world’s oil tankers and a comparable share of container vessels. Disruption of Tier‑3 Middle Eastern suppliers—particularly chemicals, plastics, aluminum...
Bond Market Predicts Near‑Zero Chance of Fed Cut
Bond Market: less than 1% probability of a Fed rate cut next week. Lloyd Christmas: so you're telling me there's a chance? https://t.co/29QHtCRSqe
UN Security Council Condemns Iran's Attacks on Gulf Civilians
UN Security Council Condemns #Iran Attacks Against Gulf Neighbors The resolution, proposed by Bahrain on behalf of GCC, decried Iran’s retaliation against civilian targets, including energy facilities, as an international law violation. @Magdalena_971 https://t.co/P9t8JHNDMg
Trump on Iran: We Won, but Don't Want to Leave Early
U.S. President Donald Trump told a Kentucky rally that the United States has "won" the war against Iran, claiming the destruction of 58 Iranian naval vessels. He emphasized that the U.S. will stay engaged to "finish the job" and avoid...
Iran's Pre‑revolution Growth Could've Made It Developed
Today I learned that Iran's GDP growth rate pre-Islamic revolution was 5%-9% a year, and that's dropped to 2% year in the ensuing 40 years. Iran had been on pace to be a South Korean or Turkey-style developed country before...
U.S. to Release 172 M Barrels Over 120 Days
U.S. details its participation in the IEA coordinated SPR release. Washington will release 172 million barrels over a 120 day period, equal to a flow of ~1.4 million barrels per day.
Trump Says U.S. Will Tap Strategic Petroleum Reserve As Iran War Surges Gas Prices
President Donald Trump announced that the United States will draw 172 million barrels from the Strategic Petroleum Reserve over the next four months, the first release since 2022. The move comes as the U.S. and Israel’s conflict with Iran has pushed...
Oil and Commodities Set to Rise Despite Iran War Outcome
Carlyle's Jeff Currie lays out a case for why oil and other commodity prices are heading higher, regardless of the exact outcome of the war in Iran. https://t.co/tMKWpSXhYe
Carriers Regret Dumping Dubai Cargo in Salalah
Ocean carriers have been leaving containers bound for Dubai in the port of Salalah, Oman until the Strait of Hormuz reopens. They're regretting that decision right now.
Disruptions Reinforce China's Self-Sufficiency Drive
China is intensifying its drive for energy self‑sufficiency by accelerating investments in low‑carbon technologies such as solar, wind, batteries and electric vehicles. The ongoing war in the Middle East, which has disrupted oil and gas imports, underscores Beijing’s anxiety over...
Cargill Halts Brazil Soybean Shipments to China Over New Inspections
🇧🇷Cargill has paused soybean exports from Brazil to China due to the implementation of stricter sanitary inspections at the request of the Chinese government. https://t.co/75cYy0TIFX
Expect 4.8
IF-THEN I am growing in confidence we’re gonna hit 4.8% in the US 10 year yield this year - with potential overshoot of crude to $300 and 10Y to 5.8% in a real panic (outlier event). That's too scary to digest/trade but...
Mideast War Brings Fresh Risks for Low-Carbon Investments
The Gulf conflict has jolted oil and gas supplies, reinforcing the long‑term economic case for clean‑energy projects. Yet the immediate fallout—rising inflation and tighter credit—could choke funding for low‑carbon initiatives. Analysts warn that the war’s duration and the speed of...
Spain Permanently Recalls Ambassador Amid US‑Israeli Iran Strikes
Today, Spain PERMANENTLY withdrew its ambassador to Israel. This comes after the U.S.-Israeli attacks on Iran. TRUMP & NETANYAHU ARE COLLECTING ENEMIES BY THE BUSHEL. https://t.co/PfxwQify0D
Global Debt Set to Double to $29 Trillion by 2026
According to the OECD’s 2026 Global Debt Report, “governments and companies are set to borrow 29 TRILLION USD...in 2026”. That’s DOUBLE the amount TEN YEARS AGO. THE GLOBAL DEBT MACHINE IS IN OVERDRIVE. https://t.co/i5ETywj1pD
G7 Explores Ship Escorts in Gulf as Middle East War Threatens Energy Supply Routes
G7 leaders reaffirmed their commitment to Russia sanctions while confronting the ripple effects of the U.S.–Israeli conflict on Iran and global energy markets. They agreed to deepen coordination with Gulf partners to safeguard shipping lanes and stabilize oil supplies. A...
Escalating Attacks Threaten Strait of Hormuz Disruption
The last 24 hours have brought the most sustained attacks from both sides since the conflict started. We could see this escalation spill into the Strait of Hormuz with mines and further maritime disruption. Full video analysis exclusively on...
Dow Jones Futures Fall As Oil Prices Surge Above $90 On Tanker Attacks, Port Disruption
Dow Jones futures fell 1.1% as crude oil prices jumped above $90 per barrel after tanker attacks in Iraq and Iranian‑linked threats in Oman. The International Energy Agency called for a record 400 million‑barrel strategic‑reserve release, with the U.S. committing 172 million...