Today's Global Economy Pulse
Fed's Kashkari warns inflation remains far too high
Minneapolis Fed President Neel Kashkari told CNBC that headline CPI was 3.8% in April and core CPI rose 2.8% year‑over‑year. He said the persistent price pressure could unanchor consumer expectations and may force the Federal Reserve to act more aggressively.
The Briefing Room
Donald Trump suggested the US‑Israel conflict with Iran could end soon, but analysts warn the war may linger, keeping oil markets on edge. Prolonged fighting threatens to disrupt the Strait of Hormuz, a critical chokepoint for global oil shipments, which would push energy prices higher. The briefing examined how this single geographic vulnerability amplifies worldwide economic risk. Guests from BBC Verify, Oxford Institute for Energy Studies, and defense think tanks debated solutions to reduce oil dependency.
USD Pressure Rises; Japan Not Defending Fixed Rate
I think it is a mistake to think that Japanese officials actually defend a fixed USD-JPY level. It makes sense to be cautious about the $USD in general as interest rate differentials have moved against it. It is a...
Watch: Your Oil Questions Answered
ING commodity strategist Warren Patterson discusses the ongoing oil price volatility, with Brent crude intermittently breaching $100 per barrel despite the International Energy Agency’s announcement of record supply releases. He examines how the conflict with Iran, particularly the strategic choke...
Anglo American Iron Ore Cargoes Diverted by Iran War
Anglo American rerouted three iron‑ore vessels after the Strait of Hormuz became impassable following U.S. and Israeli strikes on Iran. The ships—Cape Shangrila, Cape Jasmine and Mineral Zimbabwe—were diverted to Singapore, Vietnam and China respectively. Vale experienced similar disruptions, sending...
Middle East Tensions, Rising Energy and Fertilizer Costs Push Grocery Prices Higher
Grocery prices in February rose 0.4% month‑over‑month, reaching a 2.4% year‑over‑year increase for food consumed at home. The uptick coincides with a 0.6% rise in energy costs and a more than 25% surge in urea fertilizer prices, driven by escalating...
Markets Underestimate Iran Conflict’s Oil Shock Potential
Why are oil speculators assuming this war is short and irrelevant? Yesterday I talked to an energy analyst I highly respect, and he waved off the Iran situation. Oil/gas markets are dynamic and flexible, he posited, they can handle it....
U.S. Trade Deficit Falls in January
The U.S. trade deficit shrank to $54.5 billion in January, a 25 percent drop from December. Exports rose 5.5 percent to $302.1 billion, driven by gold, computers and other precious metals, while imports slipped 0.7 percent to $356.6 billion. The narrowing gap appears amid a tariff...
As War Rages, Multimodal Demand Surges on Asia-Europe Landbridge
Major ocean carriers are rerouting Gulf‑bound cargo to land‑based corridors after the Strait of Hormuz was effectively closed by the ongoing war. Maersk now ships to Salalah, Khor Fakkan and Jeddah, then secures trucking capacity to move goods into the Persian...
Hormuz Closure Threatens Markets, Fuels Inflation Surge
...and yet, the Strait of Hormuz is STILL closed, for the 13th day. Why? 🤔 At some point, investors are going to understand why this is; when they do, it is going to be very bad for both stocks AND...
A Year of Tariffs: Looking Back at the Global Impact
A year after the United States launched its aggressive tariff regime, a Javelin Strategy report finds that global supply chains adjusted faster than anticipated, limiting consumer‑price spikes and product shortages. Low‑margin imports such as electronics, toys and apparel remained stable,...
The Relationship Among Oil Prices, Food Costs, and Consumer Inflation
U.S. military actions in the Middle East have driven Brent crude sharply higher, reviving scrutiny of oil’s influence on broader price levels. Historical FRED data reveal that oil price movements have consistently co‑moved with the Global Food Price Index and...
3 Consumer Staples Mutual Funds Amid Inflation, Global Turmoil
The U.S. Consumer Price Index rose 0.3% in February, bringing the year‑over‑year CPI to 2.4% while core inflation held steady at 2.5%. Higher inflation typically pressures discretionary spending more than essential consumer staples, whose demand remains relatively inelastic. In this...
Tariff Takedown: Implications of Tariff Refunds for Government Contractors
On February 20, 2026 the Supreme Court ruled that the Trump‑era tariffs were not authorized under the International Emergency Economic Powers Act, and on March 4 the Court of International Trade began liquidating refunds for those duties. The rulings trigger...
Facing Heavy Losses, Honda Cancels Its Three US-Made Electric Vehicles
Honda announced the cancellation of its three U.S.-made electric vehicles—the Honda 0 SUV, Honda 0 sedan, and Acura RSX EV—after projecting losses of $5.1 billion to $7 billion for the fiscal year. The decision stems from a mix of trade‑war tariffs, the end of the...
Canada January Trade Balance -3.65B vs -0.9B Expected
Canada’s merchandise trade balance posted a C$3.65 billion deficit in January, far worse than the C$0.9 billion shortfall analysts expected. Exports slipped 4.7% to C$62.48 billion while imports fell 1.1% to C$66.13 billion, with motor‑vehicle and parts shipments plunging 21.2% to $5.4 billion – the...
US January Trade Balance -54.5B vs -66.6B Expected
The U.S. trade deficit narrowed to $54.5 billion in January, well below the $66.6 billion forecast and the revised $72.9 billion December figure. A surge in gold and other precious‑metal exports contributed roughly $9 billion of the improvement, while imports fell modestly. Capital‑goods exports,...
Tariffs, Scarce Power and a Splintered Map: The Macro Forces Reshaping Technology Investment to 2035
Technology investment through 2035 will be reshaped by enduring tariffs, fragmented supply chains and tightening infrastructure capacity. Governments are turning tariffs and export controls into permanent industrial tools, forcing chipmakers and device makers to absorb higher, uncertain costs. Simultaneously, AI‑driven...
The USD Is Mixed as the Market Prepares for the North American Session
The U.S. dollar opened the North American session mixed, firming against the euro and pound while slipping against the yen after testing 2026 highs. Technical analysis highlights key support and resistance levels on EUR/USD, GBP/USD and USD/JPY as traders brace...
Commodity Hoarding Signals New Regime, Not Temporary Spike
Carlyle’s Currie warning on the risks of upward pressure on all commodities. Says hoarding can lead to sustained upward pressure and this marks a regime change, not a spike. References post dotcom bubble (China entrance to WTO; gulf war; etc)...
Global Doubt Threatens US Debt Sustainability
New NYT Opinion from me: The debt math of the United States only works if the rest of the world believes in it… but they’re starting not to. What does that mean for our future (and for all this debt)?...
US Energy Secretary Wright: Iran Operations to Take Weeks, Not Months
U.S. Energy Secretary Jennifer Wright said Iran‑related naval operations in the Strait of Hormuz will last weeks, not months, and that a U.S. Navy escort for commercial tankers is expected by the end of the month. Washington is working with allied...
Gold Stays Flat Despite Safe‑Haven Surge and Tensions
Gold should be exploding right now. Here's why it isn't Oil +8%. Stocks tanking. USD rising on safe haven flows But gold? Flat Meanwhile Iran's new Supreme Leader Khamenei says Strait stays closed warns of US military bases attacks Watch what happens next👇...
Carriers Redefine Red Sea Disruption as Permanent Shift
Maersk. Treating the Strait as a long-term situation. The length of the war. How it ends? Iran’s position? Undoing the ship mess in the Strait and Persian Gulf?
Beyond the Data Center: Critical Minerals Driving AI
A Sprott report warns that 2026 marks the start of a new commodity supercycle centered on critical minerals. Geopolitical de‑globalization, energy security and the AI boom are pushing demand for metals like copper and uranium. The report highlights the Sprott...
Binary Labels Mask the Strait’s Complex Phases
At some point (idk when) "the Strait is closed/open" is going to be a bit like "we shut down/reopened the economy for covid" -- a binary that glosses over various phases of the process.
Dollar, VIX, and Yields Surge Past 20‑Day EMA
U.S. dollar $DXY, volatility $VIX and yields $TNX all rising in tandem > 20-day EMA... https://t.co/Dv49pGJIRC
West Asia Conflict Hits Bhilwara Textile Exports; US $86 Million–US $100 Million in Shipments Affected
The Gulf conflict is disrupting trade routes, causing Indian textile exporters to face delays and higher costs. Bhilwara, a major textile hub, now has shipments worth Rs 800‑1,000 crore (US $86‑$108 million) on hold, affecting key markets in the Gulf and Europe. Exporters cite...
US Inflation Far Exceeds 2% Myth; Fed Must Hold Rates
Consumer Prices in the US rose 4.4% per year over the last 5 years and over 24% in total. 2% inflation is a myth. The Fed should not be cutting rates at all this year. https://t.co/yilrof4KhM
Iran War Threatens Fertilizer Flow, Spikes Food Prices
My take on the CONSEQUENCES of the WAR IN IRAN: "About 33 percent of the world's fertilizer goes through the Strait of Hormuz. Some people realize this is a BIG DEAL." UNINTENDED CONSEQUENCES OF WAR = HIGHER FOOD PRICES. My latest with @JanetOnTheMoney on...
Can Global Cooperation Survive a Fragmenting World?
The Peterson Institute for International Economics will host a virtual event titled “Can global cooperation survive a fragmenting world?” on March 24, 2026. Communications manager Anjali V. Bhatt will interview senior fellow Kimberly Clausing to examine how the United States’...
U.S.-China Rivalry Ends; Focus Shifts to Acceptable Terms
The ‘competition’ between the U.S. and China is over. It’s just a question of the terms they will tolerate us to live by.
German Manufacturing Orders Plunge 11% Amid Green Policies, Sanctions
The WSJ reports that German manufacturing orders fell 11.1% in January compared with the previous month. GERMANY’S GREEN MADNESS & SANCTIONS AGAINST RUSSIA HAVE PROVEN TO BE A DEADLY COCKTAIL FOR GERMANY. https://t.co/sqcs2lQvqA
Olivier Blanchard on Eurobonds and Optimism for Europe's Future
Senior economist Olivier Blanchard will discuss Europe’s Eurobonds proposal at a virtual Peterson Institute event on April 14, 2026. He will examine how the bond framework could deepen fiscal integration and address rising defense expenditures. Blanchard also addresses broader challenges...
Escalating War, Markets Unmoved by IEA Oil Release
The War Escalates and Markets are Unimpressed with IEA Oil Move: The Middle East war is escalating. The market seems unimpressed with the announcement that strategic oil reserves will be released. The announcement is light on details, such as pace...
Strait of Hormuz Blockade Halts Global Shipping
Good point. There s no viable workaround for the Strait of Hormuz. Ships and supply chains are at a standstill.
EU to Respond ‘Firmly and Proportionately’ to Any Breach of US Trade Deal
The European Union announced it will respond "firmly and proportionately" to any breach of the U.S.-EU trade deal signed at the Turnberry resort. This statement follows the United States' Section 301 investigations that could lead to new tariffs on EU goods....
Iran Claims Tanker Attack, Shipping Risks Surge Globally
Iran says it hit an American tanker. If true…. Iraq has spent the last few days upping the danger for ships. The global risk keeps increasing for ships, crew, and cargo. The Strait of Hormuz and no safe movement...
Iran War Threatens Global Oil System, Risks Economic Collapse
Oil is the lifeblood of the global economy. The system just had a heart attack. The Iran War could become the most consequential geopolitical blunder by an American president in modern history. LINK👇 https://t.co/Tx2sjAvFjq #IranWar #OilMarkets #StraitOfHormuz #EnergyCrisis #EnergySecurity #Geopolitics #GlobalEconomy #OilShock #EnergySystem #SystemicRisk
Middle East Conflict Ripples Through Karnataka’s Garment and Silk Industries
The escalating Middle‑East conflict is disrupting Karnataka’s textile supply chain, slashing new garment orders by 25‑30% for March 2026 and pushing overall garment exports down 15‑20%. Export shipments worth roughly $2 billion are stranded, while silk demand has slipped 8% and cocoon...
Yen Hits Intervention Threshold, MoF Faces Decision
As Bloomberg notes, the yen has reached levels where Japan's Ministry of Finance (MoF) and perhaps Secretary Bessent have a choice to make; the yen is clearly in the zone where intervention is a real possibility 1/ https://t.co/gE34g8gEW4
A 'Special' Relationship? No, Let's Call It Coercive
The article argues that the long‑standing US‑UK "special relationship" has morphed into a coercive partnership under Donald Trump, characterized by threats, intimidation, and financial pressure. It cites Trump’s public insults toward Prime Minister Keir Starmer, his warnings about military action...
Yield-Oil Divergence Signals Market Concern Shift
War continues. I am watching the cross asset class correlations. So far, bond yields and oil have moved together on inflation concerns. But eventually high oil prices are negative for growth. When bond yields fall as oil prices rise it’s...
Finland Moves From Neutrality to Geopolitical Focal Point
Finland, a nation of less than six million that for decades inhabited a diplomatic limbo between East and West, now sits at the center of these geopolitical cross currents https://t.co/k9rSYzOhx1 via @liamdenning @loupalu @opinion https://t.co/qncnWOqcmj
Iran War Could Leave Lasting Shock on Commodities: Report
The US‑Israel war against Iran has already rattled global commodity markets, tightening supply chains for oil, fertilizers, chemicals and several metals. BMO Capital Markets notes oil prices spiked toward $120 per barrel before settling near $90, while nitrogen fertilizer costs...
Luke Forau: 2026 Monetary Policy Stance
The Central Bank of Solomon Islands (CBSI) announced an accommodative monetary stance for the next six months, introducing a new policy rate of 1.5% as a primary signal to the market. Growth for 2025 was revised up to 3.6% and...
China Extends Ban, Halts BHP Iron Ore Purchases
China is expanding its ban on steel mills buying BHP iron ore again, adding another product to the blacklist. They've been negotiating for BHP for ~6 months now and there's no end in sight. This is the second ban in...
Advisors May Be Watching the War, but Market's Tariff Troubles Remain
The Supreme Court overturned key Trump tariffs, eliminating roughly $1.7 trillion in projected revenue through 2036 and raising concerns about a national debt surge to $58 trillion, or 125% of GDP. In response, the White House invoked a temporary 10‑15% emergency tariff...
Consumers Paid for Trump’s Illegal Tariffs. These Companies May Profit.
The Supreme Court ruled 6-3 that President Trump exceeded his authority under the International Emergency Economic Powers Act, striking down most of his tariffs and opening the door to roughly $175 billion in refunds. A federal judge ordered Customs and Border...
Indonesia Poised to Lift Fuel Prices Amid Ongoing Conflict
If the conflict lasts, Indonesia will raise fuel prices, which is what it did by end 2022 as the subsidy rose by 30bn…
Chang Yong Rhee: The Future of Asia - Can It Remain the Engine of Global Growth?
In a keynote at the IMF‑Bank of Thailand “Asia in 2050” conference, Bank of Korea Governor Chang Yong Rhee highlighted Asia’s remarkable economic transformation since 1991. Per‑capita GDP across the region has risen nearly eightfold, lifting more than 1.2 billion people...