Today's Global Economy Pulse
Australia's April CPI eases to 4.2% as core inflation hits 2024 high
Australia’s consumer price index slipped to a 4.2% annual rise in April, missing the 4.4% consensus as a temporary fuel excise cut trimmed transport costs. At the same time, the trimmed‑mean core inflation gauge rose to 3.4% year‑over‑year, the highest level since late‑2024, keeping pressure on the Reserve Bank of Australia’s inflation target.
When A Cooling Economy Meets a Hot War
Recent data show the US labor market losing momentum while consumer spending eases, indicating a cooling domestic economy. Simultaneously, heightened tensions with Iran have pushed oil prices higher, adding inflationary pressure. Legal challenges over tariff revenue and growing Wall Street anxiety, highlighted by a former Goldman Sachs CEO, underscore mounting fiscal and financial strain. The convergence of these fault lines could trigger broader economic instability.
Russian Oil Purchase Allowed… for Now — Scott Bessent Announces ‘Short-Term’ Licence as Crude Prices Rise Amid Iran War
U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent announced a short‑term general licence that lets countries buy Russian crude already stranded at sea, aiming to ease the price surge triggered by the U.S.-Israel‑Iran conflict. The licence covers oil loaded onto vessels by March 12...
Retreating but Not Defeated: AUD/USD Bulls Find Hope in Technical Support...
AUD/USD dropped more than 1% from its multi‑year peak as the U.S. dollar rallied on heightened safe‑haven demand. Inflation expectations in Australia rose to 5.2%, prompting markets to price a 78% chance of a 25‑basis‑point RBA hike at the March...
Indonesia and Australia to Expand Security Cooperation to Include Japan, Papua New Guinea
Indonesia and Australia announced plans to broaden their security partnership by creating two trilateral arrangements, one with Japan and another with Papua New Guinea. The initiatives follow the recent Jakarta Treaty, which already deepens bilateral consultations and joint training, and...
Oil Shock Upends Markets; Fed Cut No Longer Expected
There is probably no single individual asset as widely-consequential to global markets than oil. The financial system’s simply not built to adjust smoothly to extreme swings in oil, let alone in the face of third-biggest quarterly jump in 40 years. Global...
Core Auto Inflation Hits Fastest Rate in 12 Years
The peak for the PCE's core goods x-autos series was 5.3% YoY in 2022. We're not there , but it will jump from 2.3% in Jan26 to 2.9% in Feb26 tks to a 1.0% MoM surge. Outside of covid, it's...
Yen Hits New Low Against Singapore Dollar as Middle East Crisis Jolts Oil Prices
The Japanese yen slipped to a fresh low of 124.78 per Singapore dollar, driven by a sharp rise in oil prices linked to the escalating Middle East crisis. Oil breached the $100‑a‑barrel threshold, pushing Japan’s import bill higher and prompting...
Argentina's Inflation Accelerates in Feb
Argentina’s consumer price index jumped to a 33.1% annual rate in February, up from 32.4% in January. The rise marks a continuation of the post‑low inflation trend that began after a cyclical dip to 31.3% in October. Core sectors such...
Will the Oil Shock of 2026 Crash House Prices
Australian analyst David Llewellyn‑Smith warns that the 2026 oil price shock could depress house prices. He notes a rule of thumb: each 10 % rise in oil adds roughly 0.4 % to inflation. Higher inflation is expected to lift mortgage rates and...
Foreign Holdings of Thai Stocks Peak
Foreign investors' holdings in Thai equities surged to a record 6.11 trillion baht in January, representing 37.1% of total market capitalisation. Although they were net sellers of Thai stocks last year, they continued to buy non‑voting depository receipts, indicating sustained exposure....
Sanctioned Rubio to Take Part in Trump’s China Trip Despite Previous Missed Opportunities
U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio, who has been sanctioned by Beijing and previously rebuffed several invitations, is now slated to join President Donald Trump on a high‑profile visit to China later this month. The South China Morning Post reports...
Fed May Cut Rates If Energy Prices Trigger Recession
"Higher inflation could cause the Fed to eventually raise interest rates. But Sahm said the Fed will also consider what could happen if energy costs rise so high that the economy slows down. “That’s a scenario in which the Fed would...
The Closer – Retail Teeter, Fertilizer, Trade – 3/12/26
Retail flows and options volumes have moderated over the past year, signaling reduced market activity. In the United States, fertilizer prices surged 29% month‑to‑date after the Strait of Hormuz closure disrupted supply chains. Futures markets now price the December 2026...
IEA's One-Month Oil Buffer Signals Looming Global Rationing
The International Energy Agency (IEA) just authorized a 400 million barrel reserve release to offset oil disruptions caused by the Iran war and the Strait of Hormuz blockade. That stabilizes markets—for now. However, with global demand at around 100 million...
Global Baku Forum Opens with Iran War Raging Across the Border
The Global Baku Forum opened under the shadow of the Iran war, with Azerbaijan pledging to increase gas supplies to the EU to offset Gulf disruptions. President Ilham Aliyev warned that rising oil prices—now above $100 a barrel—threaten consumers and...
2008 Oil Surge Crashed Markets, Fueled Inflation, Enriched Energy Giants
Thoughts? The historic oil price spike to $147 a barrel in July 2008, triggered the worst day in Wall Street history with the Dow falling 777 points. Rising oil prices cascade through the economy, causing inflation across all goods...
Inflation Surprise Drives 2026 Portfolio Tilt to Hard Assets
A couple weeks ago, not many were saying inflation was more of a problem than most realized and we probably don't get as many cuts as are priced into things. @sonusvarghese was all over this lonely call. We've constructed our portfolios...
Energy Under Attack: What the Gulf Can Learn From Ukraine and Iraq
Iranian forces struck Qatar's Ras Laffan LNG hub and a Saudi oil facility, underscoring that Gulf energy assets are now frontline targets. The attacks follow a pattern set by the 2019 Abqaiq strikes and highlight the vulnerability of export‑centric infrastructure. Iraq’s...
Key Forces Shaping Global Economy Ahead of March FOMC
A few moments from my recent interview with Asharq Business اقتصاد الشرق 🎙️ We discussed some of the key topics shaping today’s global economic landscape — inflation, oil prices, geopolitical tensions, and the upcoming FOMC meeting on March 18th. Grateful for the...
Firms Plan to Boost Supply-Chain Agility as Tariff Turmoil Persists
U.S. Supreme Court invalidated sweeping tariffs imposed under the 1977 IEEPA, reigniting policy uncertainty for import‑heavy firms. A KPMG survey finds that 40% of U.S. companies will increase spending on supply‑chain agility, while nearly half are already modeling tariff‑mitigation strategies...
Betting on Recession 2026: Up to 32% Fm 21% Pre-War
Market‑based platforms are signaling a notable recession risk for the United States by the end of 2026. Polymarket’s probability sits at 32%, down from a recent 37% peak, while Kalshi’s odds have climbed to 31.6% after a February surge. Goldman...
How the New Gulf War Is Impacting Mongolia
The February 28 Gulf War between the United States‑Israel coalition and Iran has quickly rippled to Mongolia, prompting its foreign ministry to alert the 281 Mongolian nationals living in the Middle East and arrange emergency repatriation flights. By March 11, 91 citizens...
Dow Dives 739 Points as Oil Prices Spike: Stock Market Today
U.S. equities opened sharply lower on Thursday as oil prices surged after Iran’s new supreme leader announced the Strait of Hormuz would stay closed, pushing front‑month crude up 9.7% to $95.73 a barrel. The Dow Jones Industrial Average dropped 1.6%...
UK Government ‘Flying Blind’ with Poor Data in Charting Regional Growth
The House of Commons Science, Innovation and Technology Committee released a report warning that the UK government lacks reliable data to track regional innovation and growth. It highlights severe gaps in metrics for innovation clusters, spin‑outs, and R&D spending, especially...
Iran War Flips Brazil Diesel vs Biodiesel Prices
The outbreak of the Iran war has pushed global oil‑derivative prices higher, causing imported 10 ppm (S10) diesel in Brazil to trade above biodiesel for the first time since October 2023. On 6 March, S10 diesel at Paranaguá reached R5.173 /m³, surpassing the R4.656 /m³...
War Amplifies White House Pressure on the Fed
Military conflicts have driven some of the most intense intervals of White House pressure on the Fed in the past. “I hope the Board will…not allow the bottom to drop from under our securities,” Truman wrote to the Fed chair...
US and Allies Clash with Russia and China at UN Security Council over Iran
The United States, chairing the UN Security Council, pushed a vote to discuss the 1737 sanctions committee on Iran, winning 11‑2 despite opposition from Russia and China. U.S. envoy Mike Waltz accused Moscow and Beijing of shielding Tehran’s nuclear and...
Fed Trapped: Oil, Jobs, and Yield Curve Crisis
The Fed can't cut because of oil. Can't hike because of jobs. Can't do nothing because the curve is screaming. Monetary policy was built for one crisis at a time. This is three.
Options Traders Are Pricing in ‘Disaster’ as Iran Conflict Intensifies. Here’s How Investors Might Profit.
Options traders are pricing in heightened risk as the Iran‑Israel conflict escalates, driving premiums on oil‑related contracts. CME Group’s CEO Terry Duffy warned that any U.S. attempt to directly intervene in oil futures could trigger a “biblical disaster,” potentially destabilizing...
US Says China Is Not Pricing Out American Battery Anode Makers ITC Votes Negative in Lithium Battery AD/CVD Investigation.
The U.S. International Trade Commission issued a final negative determination in its antidumping and countervailing duty investigation of active anode material (AAM) imports from China. The 2‑1 vote blocks the Department of Commerce from imposing tariffs on Chinese AAM, overturning...
Volatile Shipping Market Drags Down OOCL’s 2025 Financial Results
OOCL’s 2025 results were hit by a volatile shipping market, heightened trade tensions and new US tariffs. Revenue slipped 9.3% year‑over‑year to $9.7 billion, while EBIT and net profit plunged 42% and 41% respectively, each landing at $1.5 billion. Despite the earnings...
Oil Price Spike Won’t Slash Consumer Goods Volume
We've been looking at scenarios on the total volume of goods pumped through the economy, based on current geopolitical developments: Our general view is that the impact of high oil prices isn't as dramatic as one would initially fear in...
US Licenses Russian Oil Sales Amid Iran War Profits
NEW: US Treasury issued a general license for the delivery and sale of Russian oil loaded on vessels as of March 12. Moscow continues to be the single largest beneficiary of the Iran War. https://t.co/oVlT1gzuuN
“How Energy Prices Figure Into the Fed’s Interest Rate Decisions”
The Federal Reserve’s rate‑setting calculus is increasingly tied to volatile energy prices, which have surged amid geopolitical tensions and supply constraints. Market participants are using SOFR and Fed Funds futures to price the likelihood of upcoming policy moves, with recent...
Russia Gains $150 Million Daily From Oil After Hormuz Closure
Russia is earning as much as $150 million a day in extra budget revenues from its oil sales after the effective closure of the Strait of Hormuz. https://t.co/cfFgUkBWrB
January Trade Data Masks Deeper Economic Trends
I can see why the Trump administration likes the January trade data. Imports didn't move much v December and exports bounced back from a December dip. But there is a bit more going on under the hood 1/ many...
Ridley: The Gas Price Shock Will Expose Britain’s Catastrophic Energy Misjudgment
The recent surge in global natural‑gas prices has laid bare Britain’s over‑reliance on imports, costing households roughly three times what Americans pay. The author argues that a decade‑old decision to ban on‑shore shale fracking has left the UK vulnerable, missing...
Western Private Credit Crisis Mirrors Economic Involution
In which I argue that the West’s developing private credit crisis is just its equivalent of “involution”. https://t.co/1wAWnParft
Powell Faces Rate‑cut Pressure as Oil Doubles
Live look at Powell getting the demands to cut rates while oil just spiked 100% https://t.co/qDIcLm6oIA
Brazil Fears Tighter China Soybean Checks Amid Low Imports
🇧🇷Brazilian trade groups are concerned with the tightening of soybean inspections to China, potentially hampering the top exporters' shipments. Doesn't seem like great timing for China after its Jan-Feb imports hit 7-year lows. Now, Chinese meal futures have hit contract highs....
Europe Must Boost Domestic Drilling Amid Energy Crisis
Sure, the price of crude is soaring, but so is the price of natural gas delivered to European and Asian buyers. Regardless of what happens in this war, this energy crisis shows that European countries have to do more drilling....
Iran Keeps Flooding Strait of Hormuz with Oil
VIDEO EXPLAINER: The most important map of the Third Gulf War — the oilfields, the Strait of Hormuz, and the bypass pipelines. Plus a look at how, two weeks into the war, Iran is still exporting lots of its oil,...
Italy Backs IEA's Biggest Emergency Oil Release
Thank you to Prime Minister @GiorgiaMeloni of Italy for her and the Italian government’s support for the @IEA’s largest ever release of emergency oil stocks to address the major market disruptions stemming from the Middle East conflict https://t.co/njWNOSd5hu
Cramer Declares Unwavering Bullish Stance on Oil
Cramer getting sassy about Iran not having the cards to force oil to $200/bbl by citing the US experience in the... Vietnam War? I've LITERALLY NEVER BEEN SO BULLISH. https://t.co/d8799zIp8i
Rate‑Hike Pricing Hits S&P, Small‑Caps
As the front part of the curve moves closer toward pricing in Fed rate hikes, SPX is down just 1.2%... and the Russell 2000 isn't getting killed $SPY $IWM https://t.co/ITSA3q3sjN
President Urges Rare Intermeeting Rate Cut Before Scheduled Decision
The president expresses a desire for a rare intermeeting rate cut. The last one occurred on March 15, 2020, as the Covid shock overwhelmed financial markets. The Fed's next scheduled policy decision announcement—widely expected to be no change in rates—is in...
Brent Crude Set to Climb $3+ Daily Amid Iran Tensions
Brent crude price, Iran-War-to-date My expectation is that this rough/steady slope will hope, grinding $3+/bbl higher each and every day this crisis persists, always with the possibility of big lurches higher should Iran successfully take out major regional oil infrastructure. https://t.co/nwGMcg7rja
Keep US Oil Exports; Global Integration Essential
Cannot agree more. DO NOT end US oil exports. Our integration into the global oil market is essential. Protectionism would be a horrible idea right now.
Iran War Inflation Drives Terminal Rate to 3.37%
Iran war inflation continues to push up the terminal rate, now 3.37. This had been trading around 3% a month ago. No surprise UST front end getting shellacked with 2s 3.74 and 5s 3.86 https://t.co/8FiC830XW4
Iran Conflict Sparks Acute Oil Market Volatility
🚨 Mid-week Iran War and oil market update for Commodity Context subscribers. More regular coverage of the acute volatility across the increasingly strained oil complex in Oil Context Weekly tomorrow. https://t.co/lvkkTTJr9s