Today's Global Economy Pulse
Australia's April CPI eases to 4.2% as core inflation hits 2024 high
Australia’s consumer price index slipped to a 4.2% annual rise in April, missing the 4.4% consensus as a temporary fuel excise cut trimmed transport costs. At the same time, the trimmed‑mean core inflation gauge rose to 3.4% year‑over‑year, the highest level since late‑2024, keeping pressure on the Reserve Bank of Australia’s inflation target.
Brazil Imposes 12% Tax on Crude Exports Amid US-Iran War
Brazil announced a provisional measure that eliminates federal PIS and Cofins taxes on diesel for domestic consumption while imposing a 12% export tax on crude oil and a 50% levy on diesel shipments. The move, driven by soaring crude prices linked to the US‑Iran conflict, aims to curb diesel price inflation and generate additional revenue, offering a 0.32 real per litre discount and matching subsidy to consumers. Petrobras confirmed its compliance with the diesel subsidy scheme, and the tax is expected to cost foreign operators like Galp up to €100 million. The temporary measure is effective for 60 days, with a possible 60‑day extension, as the country heads toward a tightly contested presidential election.
Core P
Just In: PCE Inflation was 2.8% in January, a bit below expectations. But Core PCE Inflation was 3.1%, the highest since March 2024. **PCE Inflation could easily hit 4% this spring due to the war in Iran** It's notable that PCE...
Canada Loses 84,000 Jobs in February, Unemployment Rate Increases: Statistics Canada
Canada’s labour market contracted in February 2026, with Statistics Canada reporting a loss of 84,000 jobs, pushing the unemployment rate to 6.7%. The decline was driven by a 47,000‑job drop among youth and a 41,000‑job loss among men aged 25‑54,...
QTR & Adam Taggart: Private Credit, Valuations, Favorite Sectors
In a recent interview with Adam Taggart, the author warned that market optimism masks deepening fragilities, especially in private credit. He highlighted rising redemptions and gating in private credit funds as a precursor to a broader credit event. While equity...
Italy Weighs Options as Damaged Russian LNG Tanker Drifts in the Mediterranean
A Russian LNG tanker, the Arctic Metagaz, was struck by Ukrainian naval drones and left drifting in the Mediterranean between Italy and Malta. The vessel’s 30 crew were evacuated, and while the hull remains afloat, the amount of LNG on board...
Canada Dodges Trump’s New Tariff Probe but CUSMA Clock Is Ticking
Canada escaped inclusion in the Trump administration's latest Section 301 tariff investigations, even as Washington revamps its trade‑war toolkit after a Supreme Court setback. The U.S. has imposed interim 10% tariffs under Section 122, with a potential rise to 15% before a...
Managing the War Economy
The article argues that the West is ill‑prepared for a modern war economy, especially in critical‑metal supply chains. It highlights that the United States has produced virtually no tungsten or antimony in the past year, while the EU retains a...
The Loadstar Explainers: CBP Refund Process; USTR Section 301 Investigation; Jones Act Waiver Plan
The U.S. Customs and Border Protection is near‑completion of CAPE, a new module within the ACE platform that will let importers electronically claim refunds on duties imposed under IEEPA. The USTR has launched a Section 301 investigation into alleged overcapacity in...
As Global Cotton Firms up and Rupee Weakens, CAI Pares 2025-26 Cotton Import Projections
The Cotton Association of India (CAI) trimmed its 2025‑26 cotton import forecast to 47 lakh bales, down three lakh from the earlier 50‑lakh estimate, citing higher international prices, a weaker rupee and rising freight costs. Despite the cut, imports remain above...
India, US on the Heels of Finalising a Critical Minerals Agreement, ‘Big Announcement in Few Months’, Says Sergio Gor
U.S. Ambassador Sergio Gor announced that India and the United States are on the brink of finalising a critical minerals agreement, with a major public announcement expected within months. The pact is designed to shore up supply chains for advanced...
Dragon No Longer in the Cab: Senator Cotton and Rep. Stefanik Quietly Move to Eject China From American Trucking
Rep. Elise Stefanik introduced the Trucking Security and CCP Disclosure Act of 2026, mandating that every carrier in the Department of Defense freight chain certify it has no ownership or control ties to Chinese military‑linked entities. The bill creates a...
Cardoso Returns CBN to Central Banking Orthodoxy
Nigeria’s central bank, under new governor Olayemi Cardoso, has shifted back to orthodox monetary policy after a period of development‑bank‑style interventions. Since taking office in October 2023, Cardoso led a tightening cycle that pushed the policy rate to a record...
Living the Unseen War: Egyptians Feel Ripple Effects of Iran Conflict
Egypt raised domestic fuel prices by 14‑17% after the Strait of Hormuz closure, prompting immediate transport fare hikes and higher food costs for ordinary Egyptians. The surge in energy prices has accelerated inflation, with staple items like bread and tomatoes...
When It Comes To Energy Dependence On Other Countries, Americans Have An Easy Choice
The post argues that the United States should prioritize domestic oil and gas, especially Canadian supplies, over reliance on China for energy security. It highlights how Middle‑East conflicts, such as the recent Iran war, make imported crude volatile. The author...
Italian Industrial Production Started 2026 on a Soft Footing
Italy's industrial production in January 2026 slipped 0.6% month‑on‑month, extending a downturn. Year‑on‑year output also fell 0.6%, reversing a modest 2.7% gain recorded in December. While energy output grew and transport equipment rose, consumer, intermediate and investment goods contracted, and...
Trump Is ‘Wrong’: Europeans Slam US Decision to Ease Russia Oil Sanctions
European leaders, including Germany’s Friedrich Merz, France’s Emmanuel Macron and Ukraine’s Volodymyr Zelenskyy, condemned the Trump administration’s decision to temporarily lift sanctions on stranded Russian oil. They argue the move will replenish Moscow’s war chest and undermine the G7’s unified pressure on Russia...
SE Asia May Fit the Bill as Forwarders Shy Away From US ‘Tariff Silliness’
European freight forwarders are reducing exposure to the United States amid unpredictable tariff policies and turning to South‑East Asia for new import opportunities. The region, bolstered by the broader “China+1” diversification, shows steady growth, with Indonesia, Thailand and Vietnam leading...
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Trump Claimed in G7 Call that Iran Is "About to Surrender," Axios Reports
Former President Donald Trump told G7 leaders in a virtual meeting that Iran is "about to surrender," citing the ongoing U.S.-Israel Operation Epic Fury. He boasted that the campaign had eliminated a threat and dismissed Iranian leadership as "deranged scumbags."...
Seven in 10 Americans Say Trump Tariffs Have Cost Them More Money
A Harris Poll finds 72% of Americans say Trump’s tariffs have raised their costs, with grocery items like beef and coffee seeing double‑digit price jumps. Despite a Supreme Court ruling limiting many levies, the administration plans a 15% baseline tariff...
Get Ready for US PCE Data in 3 Steps
US PCE Data is set to release today. Lets prepare for it in 3 simple steps using @mrkt_ai terminal. Comment "playbook" & i will dm you the MRKT access link
India's Modi Reaches Out to Iran as Energy Crunch Fears Grip the South Asian Nation
Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi reached out to Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian, seeking safe passage for Indian vessels as Iran threatens to keep the Strait of Hormuz closed. The closure jeopardises roughly half of India’s crude‑oil imports and its primary...
Short-Term Pairs Trade Favours the Dollar
The market is adjusting to heightened geopolitical risk after coordinated US‑Israeli strikes on Iran, which have effectively shut the Hormuz Strait and intensified regional drone attacks. These developments are pushing oil prices higher for a longer period, bolstering the U.S....
A 60-40 Portfolio Is No Help as War Drives Stagflation Threat
The escalating war in Iran is pushing oil prices higher, reviving stagflation fears across global markets. As inflation expectations rise, both equities and government bonds are falling in tandem, eroding the historic hedge that bonds provide against stock losses. This...
2026 Mirrors Past Crises: Bitcoin, Oil, Yields Peak
Is 2026 Next After 9/11, 2008, 2022? Bitcoin Slides - This year may be shaping up like some combination of 2001, 2008 and 2022, with similar risk-asset-reversion implications. Crude oil's spike to its $147-a-barrel peak in 2008 accelerated the Great...
OPEC Analyst Explains Iran War Impact on Oil
🎙️ NEW PODCAST 🎧 In the latest episode of the Oil Ground Up podcast, I spoke with @ncitayim for a view on the Iran war from one of my absolute favourite OPEC and Middle East oil analysts, reporting from the Gulf. (Link...
NXT Conclave 2026: PM Modi Unveils India’s Energy Strategy
Prime Minister Narendra Modi used the NXT Conclave to unveil India’s comprehensive energy strategy, emphasizing expanded domestic infrastructure and reduced reliance on imports. He highlighted a surge in strategic petroleum reserves to over 5 million tonnes, a tripling of LPG connections,...
Core PCE on Target; Headline Inflation Eases Below
January Core PCE prints at 3.1% as expected - previously 3.0% y/y Headline PCE prints at 2.8% vs 2.9% expected- previously 2.9% y/y
S&P Rebounds From Low, Eyes 6740 Resistance Amid Hawkish Fed
$SPX hit a 6636 low Monday and bounced to 6670, and now we’ll see if early strength holds or fades with 6740ish as resistance. #FOMC is the next move as the Fed turned more hawkish with inflation and higher...
EM Lens: War-Induced Oil Shocks Aren’t Kind to EM Economies
In this episode, Gustavo Medeiros of Ashmore Group and Bloomberg Intelligence’s Damian Sassower examine how the war‑induced oil shock is pressuring emerging market (EM) economies with rising energy costs, stagflation risks, and declining asset prices. They discuss the extraordinary policy...
Cuban President Confirms First US Talks on Cooperation
NEW: The president of #Cuba for the first time CONFIRMS talks with the US, which he says are to identity areas of bilateral cooperation. He's giving his SECOND press conference in as many months, addressing the problems of the current energy...
Extended Hormuz Closure Accelerates Alternative Energy Shift
What are the longer term ramifications of an extended closure of the Strait of Hormuz? Growth in alternative energy sources? What else?
Pharma’s Godfather Moment: Pulled Back Into Tariff Uncertainty
The U.S. Supreme Court nullified President Trump’s emergency authority to impose tariffs, reigniting uncertainty for the pharmaceutical sector. Despite the ruling, most‑favored‑nation (MFN) pricing agreements between branded drug makers and the Administration are expected to hold, though new U.S. manufacturing...
War Tension Squeezes Equities, Bonds as Oil Stabilizes
The War Rages On; Equities and Bonds Don't Like It,: The war and rhetoric around it keep investors on edge, even though WTI and Brent are consolidating now after reaching marginal new four-day highs. The greenback is firm against the...
Dollar Nears Breakout, Taming Global Import Prices
While everyone focuses on volatile oil prices, the dollar is nearing a breakout higher. An appreciating dollar tightens monetary policy outside of the US and helps tame import prices. Many other implications as well. https://t.co/69NGmJLCB1
Fitch Raises India's GDP Growth Projection for FY26 to 7.5%
Fitch Ratings raised its forecast for India’s FY 2025‑26 GDP growth to 7.5%, a slight uptick from the 7.4% projected in December. The agency also lifted its outlook for FY 2026‑27 to 6.7% from 6.4%, citing strong domestic demand and double‑digit credit...
Quiet Markets, Massive Week: 7 Central Bank Rate Decisions
Markets are quiet today but there's a BIG week ahead with 7 central bank rate decisions including the Fed Here's my take on it all 👇
Crude Steadies, GBP Sinks, JPY Nears
Crude is consolidating despite the war showing no signs of relenting. Disappointing UK Jan GDP pushes $GBP to the bottom of G10 fx today. Proximity of JPY160 turns mkt cautious and $JPY is faring best. See https://t.co/Xdwqs68Eew https://t.co/aB4Tekr0wK
Equities Showing Complacency, Vulnerability on Iran, Principal’s Shah Says
Seema Shah, chief global strategist at Principal Asset Management, warned that equity markets are displaying complacency despite a sharp escalation in oil price expectations tied to the Iran conflict. While her base case envisions oil stabilizing near $90 a barrel,...
U.S. Energy Firms Begin Re‑entering Iraq After War
We've all heard the claim that the Iraq War was a war for oil, but American energy firms barely wanted to touch Iraq after Saddam fell. Things might be shifting now. Full Newsletter: https://t.co/5iqjffXWpl #crudeoil #iraq #chevron #geopolitics https://t.co/tn3Jsb1BTc
Iran Conflict Threatens China's Small-Scale Oil Refineries
NEW ODD LOTS: What War in Iran means for the 'teapot' oil refineries in China. @tracyalloway and I talk to @Erica_Downs_ about what the closure of the Strait of Hormuz means for Chinese energy security. https://t.co/ZdGwLQJV8E
Rethinking Transatlantic Power: Why Trade Dependencies Cut Both Ways
The article examines transatlantic trade dependencies, showing that while the United States remains a major market for Europe, the EU actually supplies more strategically important products to the United States than vice‑versa. Data from CEPII indicate the US imports 36...
US Eases Russian Oil Bans as Iran Fuels Price Surge
Great @business reporting by @DanielPFlatley on US moves to ease restrictions on buying Russian oil. This is all backwards. Russia and Iran are making money while the Strait of Hormuz is shut and global oil prices spike. Iran's oil exports...
Iran's War-Era Oil Exports Surge, Prices Likely Drop
According to this excellent @WSJ story, Iran is today exporting more oil than before war broke out. That’s insane. First order of business for the US Navy is to stop any and all ship traffic out of Iran. That won’t...
The Demonic Policy Strangling the British Economy
The United Kingdom’s “triple lock” pension rule forces state pensions to rise faster than wages, regardless of economic conditions. This automatic uplift adds a growing burden to the nation’s fiscal balance as the population ages and pension outlays swell. Despite...
Iran's Oil Surges Amid War; Call to Blockade Ports
Iran is a gas station posing as an Islamic Republic. Iran's oil exports are reportedly up since war broke out. That's nuts. First order of business must be to blockade Iran's ports. If that hurts China, all the better. Have...
Middle East Crisis Adds Pressure on Global Automotive Sector
Volkswagen and Volvo warned that the escalating Iran conflict could suppress vehicle demand in the Middle East, a region projected to sell three million light vehicles in 2025, with Iran contributing roughly a third. Executives cited rising consumer anxiety and...
UK Economy Posts No Growth in January
The UK economy stalled in January 2026, with gross domestic product flat month‑on‑month, missing the 0.2% growth forecast. Services output was unchanged while production slipped 0.1%, though construction posted a modest 0.2% rise after three consecutive declines. Over the three...
The Spheres-of-Influence Illusion
For the first time since World War II, the United States, China and Russia are coalescing around an authoritarian notion of sovereignty that privileges raw power over international law. This emerging bloc coincides with a surge in U.S. military activity under...
China’s Credit Shows Surprise Growth as Firms Step Up Borrowing
China’s aggregate financing surged 2.4 trillion yuan in February, outpacing the Bloomberg‑survey median forecast of 2 trillion yuan. The People’s Bank of China reported that banks extended 900 billion yuan of new corporate loans, also beating expectations. The growth was driven by stronger...
The Macroeconomic Consequences of Undermining Central Bank Independence: Evidence From Governor Transitions
An IMF study of 132 central‑bank governor transitions across 28 economies finds that politically motivated appointments erode independence and alter macro outcomes. Such governors are linked to higher, more volatile inflation and cause professional forecasters to anticipate dovish policy. Following...