Today's Global Economy Pulse
Australia's April CPI eases to 4.2% as core inflation hits 2024 high
Australia’s consumer price index slipped to a 4.2% annual rise in April, missing the 4.4% consensus as a temporary fuel excise cut trimmed transport costs. At the same time, the trimmed‑mean core inflation gauge rose to 3.4% year‑over‑year, the highest level since late‑2024, keeping pressure on the Reserve Bank of Australia’s inflation target.
How This Oil Supply Shock Compares With the Embargo of 1973
The article compares the present oil supply shock, triggered by Iranian retaliation against U.S. and Israeli strikes, with the 1973 Arab oil embargo. Experts say the current disruption is the largest ever, affecting a far greater share of global consumption than the 7% cut in 1973. While gasoline prices have spiked, U.S. authorities have not yet imposed rationing or emergency measures. The piece highlights how policy missteps in 1973 amplified shortages, a risk policymakers aim to avoid now.
U.S. Tech Giants Flocked to the Persian Gulf. Now They Are Targets.
U.S. tech giants including Amazon, Google, Microsoft and OpenAI have poured billions into data center projects across the Persian Gulf to support AI development. Iranian drone attacks in early March damaged Amazon’s facilities in Bahrain and the UAE, disrupting services...
Oil Market Bets on Short US‑Iran Conflict, Quick Hormuz Re‑opening
Oil prices still anticipate short war or early re-opening of the Strait Oil traders are still betting war between the United States and Iran will end relatively quickly - or that the United States will soon be in a position to...
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ISS TODAY: Agoa Extension Offers Little Relief as US Trade Chaos Rattles African Exporters
The U.S. Congress extended the African Growth and Opportunity Act (Agoa) only until 31 December 2026, a modest reprieve after President Trump’s 2025 tariffs eroded its benefits. Tariffs imposed under the International Emergency Economic Powers Act and a new 10% surcharge under...
“The Market Is Way Too Aggressive with Its Rate Hike Forecast”
Russell Investments’ head of Canadian strategy, BeiChen Lin, warns that the market is over‑pricing rate hikes after Canada shed a record 84,000 jobs in February, the biggest monthly loss since 2022. He attributes the slowdown to trade‑policy uncertainty and a...
Trump’s Oil Crisis Is Already Costing Massachusetts Drivers Over $2.4 Million A Day In Higher Gas Prices
A surge in global oil prices after President Trump’s attack on Iran has pushed Massachusetts gasoline prices up 45 cents per gallon, costing drivers over $2.4 million daily. The state consumes about 6 million gallons per day, so the extra expense totals...
Consumer Spending Slows, Core Inflation Stays Stubbornly High
US economic data released today suggests that, leading up to the Middle East War, hitherto robust consumer spending had begun to soften. Meanwhile, inflation — as measured by core PCE, the Federal Reserve’s favorite measure — remained sticky, holding well...
Inflation Rising Pre‑Conflict Signals Trouble for Economy, Fed
Inflation was hearing up even before the US-Iran conflict began. Bad news for the economy and bad news for the Fed
Trump’s Temporary 10% Tariff Faces Further Legal Scrutiny
Two small firms, spice maker Burlap and Barrel and toy producer Basic Fun, have filed a lawsuit in the Court of International Trade to overturn President Trump’s temporary 10% global tariff imposed under Section 122 of the Trade Act. The companies argue...
Bond Yields Rise on Moderate Oil Shock, Easing Doubtful
How to interpret the rise in bond yields across the G10? Here's a guess: the market has priced in moderate oil disruption that marginally raises upside inflation risks and lowers probability of central bank easing this year. If at some...
Trump Pushes Fed Cut as Oil Spikes Amid Iran Conflict
As oil prices surged on Thursday during the intensifying Iran war, President Donald Trump again urged Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell to cut interest rates, even as markets increasingly bet that rising energy costs would keep inflation elevated and delay...
War Premium and the Defensive Stampede
The latest Leaders‑Laggards analysis highlights a pronounced "war premium" as energy and defense equities outperform amid $100‑plus oil and deteriorating payroll data. Defensive sectors such as utilities and consumer staples are rallying, creating a clear rotation away from riskier assets....
No TACOs: Trump Lacks Leverage in Energy Crisis
The discussion around TACO is wrong. There are no TACOs here. TACOs don't exist when: 1) It's not a unilateral decision. It's very clearly not up to Trump any more. Things we said in this episode are playing out - he...
US Debt, Geopolitics Top Advisors' Market Risks List Through 2028
A February 2026 FUSE Research survey of over 520 financial advisors shows government debt and fiscal policy are the top market risk for the next 12‑month horizon, rising to 56% for a three‑year outlook. Advisors are shifting client conversations toward...
Singapore Contests US Claim of Trade Surplus Amid Excess Capacity Probe
Singapore has rejected the U.S. Trade Representative’s claim that it posted a $27 billion trade surplus with the United States in 2024, asserting instead a $27 billion deficit – $1.7 billion in goods and $25.1 billion in services. The dispute arises as Washington launches...
The Iran Crisis Is Making Markets Unpredictable – What Can Investors Do?
The escalating Iran crisis is driving sharp, hourly swings in oil prices, with Brent crude moving nearly $30 in a single day. While the broader equity markets have remained relatively calm, European stocks are under pressure compared with resilient US...
Core PCE Inflation Slips to 3.1% in January
January was another hot month for PCE inflation (we're getting these data two weeks later than usual due to shutdown). Annual rates for core PCE: 4.5% 3.7% 3.1% 3.1%
Monthly Spotlight: Global Investing
Wealth Professional’s March spotlight turns to global markets as Canadian advisors note a renewed appetite for international allocations. Since early 2024, global equities have outperformed key U.S. indices, ending a 12‑year period of lag. Tyler Mordy of Forstrong Global explains...
Seven Ways the Iran War Could Disrupt Global Tech Supply Chains
The ongoing Iran war is creating hidden infrastructure risks that could ripple through the global technology supply chain. Gartner analyst Cori Masters identifies seven disruption pathways, from data‑center workload relocations to delayed semiconductor fab equipment deliveries. Rising petrochemical‑based material costs...
Government Should Cut Fuel Taxes, Not Blame Retailers
Rather than blame business for price gouging perhaps the government would be better served at looking at its own policies around fuel duty, where the Treasury takes more than 50% of the pump price. Perhaps a temporary cut to...
Trump’s AI Ambitions Undermined by Risky Iran Oil Move
On one hand, Trump laid out the 21st Century Manhattan project with the Genesis Plan, promising to lead the world in AI- an objectively good thing for America. @DavidSacks On the other hand, he goes into Iran cutting off oil...
The Impact of U.S.-Venezuela Relations on Ocean Shipping
U.S. sanctions on Venezuela's oil sector are intensifying, combining aggressive enforcement such as tanker seizures with narrowly‑tailored licenses for limited oil and diluent exports. The heightened scrutiny is affecting ocean transportation, with regulators, insurers, and lenders examining vessel movements, charter...
Prediction Markets See Two‑thirds Chance US Troops Deployed by Year‑end
Prediction markets are pricing in 2/3rds chance that U.S. boots are on the ground by the end of the year https://t.co/2kcrfgNU6v
Poland to Fund Program Using Unrealized Gold Gains
Based on what Glapinski said during his press conference two days ago, all indications are, as I expected, that the plan is to use unrealised gains on the NBP's gold to fund the programme. https://t.co/csre6RPhlr
Trump Says US Will Hit Iran ‘Very Hard’ for Another Week
President Donald Trump announced that the United States will intensify attacks on Iran for the next week, following a partial 30‑day waiver for Russian oil purchases aimed at easing soaring fuel prices. The statement came as Brent crude hovered around...
Mearsheimer: US War in Iran Faltering, Trump Stuck
Distinguished UChicago Prof. John Mearsheimer on the war in Iran: “It’s quite clear that the war is not going well for the United States… and the problem that [Trump] faces is he can’t find an off-ramp.” https://t.co/7LkbA4GAp1
Fed Still Engaged in QE Despite Denials
BESSENT: A LONG WAY FROM FED GOING BACK TO QE Talk about blatant BS- the Fed is doing QE
Barclays Pushes Back Expectations for Fed Rate Cuts
Barclays economists now expect the Federal Reserve’s first rate cut in September 2024, pushing the next reduction to March 2027. This postpones the earlier June and September 2024 cuts the bank had forecast. Market pricing has collapsed to just 22.5...
War Risks Trigger Oil, Food Shocks and Stagflation
If this war lasts much longer, it's not just an oil shock that could destabilize the economy. Food too. "We are facing a risk of stagflation" - @JosephEStiglitz Apple🔊https://t.co/7Ewtn8N1AT Spotify📽️https://t.co/3AKmC9yw2d YouTube📽️https://t.co/yR3j6zbCrB https://t.co/hYJLSPL2uF
Trump Releases 172M Barrels, Calls SPR Outdated White Elephant
TRUMP PANICS and orders the release of 172 million barrels of oil from America's strategic petroleum reserve (SPR). This will amount to a drop in the bucket. SPR is a classic OUTDATED GOV'T WHITE ELEPHANT. It's time to liquidate it and shut it...
Russia’s Nuclear Exports a Flourishing Geopolitical Asset, After Four Years of Ukraine War
Four years after the Ukraine invasion, Russia’s state nuclear firm Rosatom has turned civil nuclear exports into a robust geopolitical tool. The company now leads global reactor sales, offering VVER‑1200 and VVER‑1000 plants financed up to 90% by Russian state...
Wolf: Oil Price Nightmare Unlikely; Iran Regime Change Implausible
OUT NOW - @martinwolf_ on "nightmare scenario" for oil prices and why the democratic regime change in Iran is "extremely implausible" 🇮🇷 Apple🔊https://t.co/YIUZqmamAH Spotify📽️https://t.co/TIAT3VANJk YouTube📽️https://t.co/unzLSGazzM https://t.co/MQl4DAj8d0
Refined Product Prices, Not Crude, Will Drive Demand Collapse
Crude prices aren't what will ultimately drive the necessary demand destruction should the Strait of Hormuz remain closed. That job will fall to refined product prices, the things we as consumers actually consume. Singapore spot jet fuel prices are there already, over...
Dollar Surge Revives 2018 Liquidity Squeeze, Hurting Risk Assets
DXY starting to move up just as it did in early 2018. This threatens to tighten global liquidity even further, which will continue to be a macro headwind for risk assets https://t.co/70JRVsUDZk
Copper‑Gold Ratio Distorted by Gold Surge, Awaiting Normalization
When will the Copper-Gold ratio 'normalize' such that it will once again stand as a reflection of economic health? The unusual surge in gold these past months is still distorting it. Would be good to have a clear reading from...
Iran Conflict Revives Debate on Booming U.S. Oil Exports
Iran war reignites debate over U.S. oil exports, which have surged after Congress + Obama lifted a ban in 2015. https://t.co/xCz2d8WdQ1 via @axios https://t.co/kHinCgc4Z7
Oil Prices Set to Remain High Through Midterms
Oil prices aren't expected to fall anytime soon. Futures markets suggest oil prices are very likely to be high high during the midterms. https://t.co/5A4nd2c298
Hormuz Closure Would Crash Markets, Boost Commodities and Inflation
It is hard to overstate how negative it is for stocks, bonds, and the global economy, and how positive it is for commodities and inflation (up bigly) if Hormuz is still closed in a month. Every single price on our screens...
EM ETF's Sharp Drop Signals Market Minefield
$EEM up 33% over the past year. Then dropped 8.4% in a single week. That's not volatility. That's a warning. Dollar weakness opens the door. Oil slams it shut. EM is a minefield right now. https://t.co/i9MYZbdcdq
US, Japan, EU to Forge Critical Minerals Trade Pact
The US, Japan and the European Union are set to announce plans in the coming weeks to lay the foundation for a trade agreement in critical minerals. Trade agreements, ok, personnel, IP, experience, required... https://t.co/4wQbtrIhCR
Saudi Bypass of Hormuz Spurs Red Sea Supertanker Surge
Supertankers Build Up in Red Sea as Saudi Arabia Races to Bypass Hormuz. The plan and how much the infrastructure can handle. https://t.co/0tUBLK1icp
Chinese Zinc Shipments From Iran Cancelled Amid Conflict
"In the wake of the conflict in Iran, Chinese buyers have been informed that shipments of zinc concentrates set to leave the port city of Bandar Abbas have been called off, according to people familiar with the matter..." https://t.co/jXqFGxfn43
Fed Stalls Amid One‑Time War Inflation, Awaiting SEP Clarity
Fed's in a tough position here. Labor market and economy in general need a bit of TLC but war inflation may be one too many one-time price level increase. Default reaction will be no reaction for now. FOMC...
Saez and Zucman Analyze Sanders' Billionaire Tax Plan
Emmanuel Saez and Gabriel Zucman on the Sanders proposal for a billionaire tax. More on this in the Chartbook Top Links today. https://t.co/985S5J7cYd
USTR Launches 76 Section 301 Probes, Reviving Tariffs
Quick update on tariffs in light of this week’s new USTR announcement of over 76 new Section 301 investigations that will likely result in new tariffs being put back in place on substantially all of US imports that were taken...
Conab Slightly Lowers Crop Estimates, Boosts Soybean Export Forecast
🇧🇷Conab made very slight trims to its estimates for Brazil's 2025/26 soybean and corn crops. First-crop corn production went up, but that was offset by a reduction to the heavily-exported second crop. Projected soybean exports rose from last month. https://t.co/vXR8g5NOEG
Fed Treasury Holdings Surge, Keeping Gold Bullish
The Fed's balance sheet holdings of US Treasuries is now at October 2024 levels and rising. This is why it's difficult to get secularly bearish on gold. Material balance sheet expansion has begun with asset prices at ATHs and no...
Iran's Move Could Crash Oil Prices, Lose Leverage
If Iran does this, crude oil prices fall back to bear pre-war levels, and they lose the only leverage they have.
Tehran’s Real Leverage: Shutting Hormuz, Not Drone Control
Everyone wants a Hormuz EZ-Pass but Tehran's primary leverage is keeping the Strait closed to *all* traffic. It's the total supply flow lost—not the destinations— that ultimately matters. And no guarantee that person with whom you're negotiating is controlling the drones. https://t.co/xNoSi9YCh5
Small‑Cap Investors Mimic Dunkirk, Smuggling Oil Through Hormuz
The Little Ships of Dunkirk except its small cap investors smuggling oil through the Strait of Hormuz https://t.co/grhS8iKYsL