Today's Global Economy Pulse
Australia's April CPI eases to 4.2% as core inflation hits 2024 high
Australia’s consumer price index slipped to a 4.2% annual rise in April, missing the 4.4% consensus as a temporary fuel excise cut trimmed transport costs. At the same time, the trimmed‑mean core inflation gauge rose to 3.4% year‑over‑year, the highest level since late‑2024, keeping pressure on the Reserve Bank of Australia’s inflation target.
US-China Trade Talks: What to Expect as Senior Officials Meet in Paris
Senior U.S. and Chinese officials convened in Paris to lay groundwork for the upcoming Beijing summit between President Xi Jinping and President Donald Trump. The talks are expected to focus on procedural issues rather than substantive policy breakthroughs, reflecting both sides' desire to preserve a short‑term trade truce. Analysts note that domestic political pressures in Washington and Beijing drive the cautious approach. The meeting follows a similar high‑level encounter in Stockholm last year, underscoring a pattern of incremental dialogue.
Rising Global Debt Fuels Record Defense Spending Surge
As I research and write my upcoming report on "Defense Innovation", global debt levels have been top of mind. Total global debt surged by $28.8 trillion last year, hitting a record $348 trillion. It was the biggest rise in the...
So What’s the Strategy on Iran?
The Atlantic Council’s Scowcroft Center released a new "So What’s the Strategy?" podcast episode featuring former National Security Council chief of staff Alex Gray. Host Matthew Kroenig and Gray dissect Washington’s approach to the ongoing Iran war, referencing the 2020...
Middle East Shipping Disruptions Boost US Position as Top LNG Exporter
Historic shipping disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz have halted roughly 20% of global LNG flow, prompting buyers to seek alternatives. The United States, already the world’s largest LNG exporter, is set to nearly double its export capacity by 2031,...
Helium Shortage Looms as Qatar Supply Disrupted
Everyone is talking about the impact of closing the Strait of Hormuz on oil and gas. I haven't seen much discussion of the war's impact on helium. Most people think of helium as being a fun gas you use for...
The US and Cuba Are Talking
Mexico's president helped broker the first confirmed talks between the United States and Cuba, with Cuban President Miguel Díaz‑Canel confirming a dialogue aimed at resolving long‑standing bilateral differences. The discussions are in an early phase and follow reports that the Trump...
Charai for The Jerusalem Strategic Tribune: JD Vance and the Strategic Logic of Trump’s Foreign Policy
Ahmed Charai argues that former President Donald Trump’s foreign policy was driven by a coherent strategic logic rather than ad‑hoc decisions. He highlights how the "America First" approach reshaped U.S. engagement in the Middle East, emphasizing energy security, transactional alliances,...
Portugal's Food Basket Cost at All-Time High but Not Due to Iran War
Portugal's consumer price index for a basket of essential foods hit a record €254.12, up €12.30 (5%) from early 2026 and 35% above 2022 levels. DECO says the surge cannot yet be linked to the Iran war, pointing instead to...
Canada Loses 84K Jobs, Signaling Looming Stagflation
Horrible Canadian Jobs Report: 84K Full-Time Jobs Disappear But WAIT This Is Even Worse Than It Seems Ever hear of Stagflation? I have lived through Stagflation & it's a mess Simple concept: Inflation accelerates as an economy withers Central Banks can't help
Fed Cuts Would Spike Yields Amid Oil‑driven Demand Destruction
If the Fed cut rates, bond yields would soar. Crude oil prices are surging due to supply constraints. The market needs demand destruction to restore balance. In plain English, there is not enough crude oil to go around because of the...
After the Petrodollar
In 1974 Henry Kissinger secured an informal pact that required Saudi Arabia to price oil exclusively in U.S. dollars, creating the petrodollar system that channeled massive dollar surpluses into Treasury securities. The arrangement underpinned America’s ability to run large fiscal deficits...
Goldman’s Shifting Forecasts Reveal War to Reopen Hormuz
Looking at Goldman Sachs Research gives a good timeline for thinking about the Strait of Hormuz * March 4, Hormuz flows would recover in 5 days. * March 9, they pushed that to 10 days * March 11, they extended it again...
Ongoing Tariffs, Iran War Weigh on Aluminum Prices
U.S. Section 232 tariffs on aluminum and tinplate steel remain at 50%, despite a Supreme Court ruling that struck down broader trade measures. The Midwest Premium for aluminum broke the $1‑per‑pound barrier in January 2026, pushing input costs for metal‑packaging producers...
Lichfield Quoted in Bloomberg Article Discussing How Countries Are Shielding Their Economies From Iran War Shocks
Atlantic Council senior fellow Lichfield was quoted in a Bloomberg piece highlighting how governments are insulating their economies from the fallout of the Iran‑Israel conflict. He noted that nations are bolstering strategic petroleum reserves, diversifying supply chains, and employing financial...
US Economy Ended 2025 on Weaker Footing than Previously Thought
The Bureau of Economic Analysis revised fourth‑quarter 2025 data, showing GDP growth slowed to 1.5% annualized, well below the 2.2% forecast earlier this year. The downgrade reflects weaker consumer spending, a modest rebound in inflation, and a softening labor market....
Pentagon: Iran's Missiles, Not Mines, Pose Main Threat to Hormuz Shipping
The Pentagon has concluded that Iran’s missile arsenal, rather than naval mines, represents the chief danger to commercial shipping in the Strait of Hormuz. Analysts note that Iran’s short‑ and medium‑range ballistic missiles can reach vessels transiting the narrow waterway,...
USMCA Facing Headwinds Says U.S. Ambassador, as July Renewal Deadline Draws Near
U.S. Ambassador to Canada Pete Hoekstra warned that the renewal of the USMCA (known as COMSA in Canada) faces increasing political headwinds as the July deadline looms, despite strong backing from the business community on both sides of the border....
Fed’s Favorite Core Inflation Measure Hit Multi-Year High Before War
U.S. core inflation accelerated to a 3.1% year‑over‑year increase in January 2026, the fastest pace in nearly two years. The Bureau of Economic Analysis released the data after a delay caused by the prolonged government shutdown. This measure, the Fed’s...
Daily Memo: US Eases Russian Oil Sanctions
The United States announced a 30‑day suspension of sanctions on Russian crude that is currently at sea, aiming to cushion the economic repercussions of the war in Iran. The temporary relief covers roughly 100 million barrels of Russian oil in transit,...
UAE Says Iran Must Halt Attacks on Neighbours to Allow Diplomacy
UAE minister Lana Nusseibeh warned Iran must stop attacks on Gulf neighbours before any mediation can succeed, tying a diplomatic breakthrough to President Donald Trump’s leadership. She described the Iranian strikes on Dubai airport, hotels and infrastructure as shocking and...
Petrol Price Surge Puts Poland’s Low‑inflation Trajectory at Risk
Poland’s inflation outlook has soured as March petrol prices jumped roughly 15%, threatening to push the CPI above the 3% year‑on‑year mark. While core inflation remained modest, the surge in oil and gas prices—driven by the Middle East conflict—creates a...
Russia’s Relentless Interference Since Start of Ukraine War Has Failed to Break Moldova
Four years after Russia’s full‑scale invasion of Ukraine, Moldova has withstood Moscow’s destabilisation campaign and moved forward on its EU accession path. The country secured candidate status in 2022 and opened accession negotiations in 2024, while President Maia Sandu won...
Week 12 VIX Peaks as Central Banks Hold Rates
Looking ahead to next week - we have a laundry list of central bank rate decisions (almost all holding) with critical forecast updates at a critical time - like the #FOMC SEC. Historically, the 12th week of the year is the...
China Rejects U.S. Overcapacity Claims, Emphasizes Global Interdependence
China says US has no right to define overcapacity MOFCOM: "The world economy has long become an inseparable whole. As production and consumption are global, supply and demand must be matched and adjusted from a global perspective. If each country's...
Vietnam and the Geopolitics of Critical Minerals
Vietnam has tightened restrictions on raw rare‑earth exports to force domestic refining, positioning itself as a niche superpower in critical minerals. Meanwhile, the United States is building a broad coalition of more than 50 partners through initiatives like the Critical...
US Economy Gets Sharp Downgrade In Stagflationary GDP Update
The U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis revised fourth‑quarter 2024 GDP growth to roughly 0.5% annualized, half of the initially reported rate. The slowdown coincides with persistently high inflation, reinforcing concerns of a stagflationary environment. Business leaders across diverse sectors report...
India Can Avoid the Middle-Income Trap
Prime Minister Narendra Modi aims to elevate India to a fully developed economy by August 15, 2047, marking the nation’s centennial of independence. Over the past twenty years, India has posted strong GDP growth, while recent years have seen an unprecedented surge...
Brazilian Stock Pullbacks Offer Secular Commodity Play
Pullbacks in Brazilian equities are opportunities, in my view. And no — this isn’t just an energy trade. It’s a derivative of a weakening dollar and a broader commodity bull market. I love a secular thesis. The same applies to metals and mining. H/t to...
Core PCE Hits 22‑month High, Fueling Fed Hike Odds
The Fed's preferred measure of inflation (Core PCE) moved up to 3.1% in January, the highest level in 22 months. That was the 59th consecutive reading above the Fed's 2% target level. There will be no Fed rate cut next...
India Overtakes China as Largest Supplier of Cotton Products to the US in 2025: USDA
India became the United States' top supplier of cotton products in 2025, overtaking China for the first time in recent years. The USDA reports that India shipped roughly 0.6 million metric tonnes, while China delivered about 0.5 million tonnes, out of total...
US Rejects Latest World Trade Organization Reform Proposal
U.S. Trade Representative Joseph Barloon rejected the draft WTO reform plan presented by a Norway‑led group, calling the language ambiguous and the discussions insufficiently mature. The refusal comes ahead of the WTO trade ministers’ meeting in Cameroon scheduled for March 26‑29,...
Germany's 2026 Growth Slips, Inflation Rises Amid Stagflation
Good Morning from Germany, where economic forecasts are turning increasingly stagflationary amid the conflict in the Middle East. The Ifo Institute has lowered its growth forecast for Germany for 2026 from 1% to 0.8% and raised its inflation projection from...
China’s Electrostate Shift Cushions Impact of Rising Oil Prices
China may benefit from higher oil prices triggered by Iran war China’s evolution into an “electrostate” may help insulate it from spiking oil prices. https://t.co/oCfxauQUQP
Policy Paper: Fifth Trade Specialised Committee on Customs Cooperation and Rules of Origin Meeting Minutes
The fifth meeting of the UK‑EU Trade Specialised Committee on Customs Cooperation and Rules of Origin was held on 16 October 2025 and the minutes were published on 13 March 2026. Delegates reviewed progress on customs valuation, intellectual‑property enforcement, and the administration of rules...
Fed Stuck: Low CPI Hides 68% Oil Surge
CPI at 2.4%. Looks fine. Except $WTI is up 68% YTD and none of it is in the data yet. The Fed is trapped. Cut → inflation explodes. Hold → recession deepens. Goldman pushed cut to September. Futures say December 2027. https://t.co/WFbW5IQa0u
EU Proposes Solution to Montenegro's Euro Usage Issue
EU floats fix for euro use that’s clouding Montenegro’s membership bid https://t.co/eov27Lw9Rv via @jaskuzmanovic @europressos https://t.co/KoM3j0R4qx
India’s Forex Reserves Fall $11.68 Billion to $716.81 Billion, Biggest Drop in over a Year
India’s foreign‑exchange reserves dropped to $716.81 billion for the week ended March 6, a decline of $11.68 billion from the prior week—the steepest fall in more than a year. The Reserve Bank of India sold roughly $6.1 billion of dollars to defend the rupee...
Higher Tariffs Inevitably Drive Increased Fraud and Evasion
Higher tariffs have LONG been associated with more evasion (fraud, piracy, etc). That's why most fiscal/econ projections of tariff effects (eg, @TaxFoundation) account for some evasion/leakage. No surprise historically high/complex tariffs led to tons of fraud. It's baked in.
Strait Closure Likely if Conflict with Iran Escalates
Closure of the strait is one of the most obvious possible consequences of conflict with Iran...
What Rob Jetten’s New Minority Government Means for Dutch and European Defense
Rob Jetten leads the Netherlands’ first minority coalition, formed by D66, CDA and VVD, holding only 66 of 150 parliamentary seats. The government’s agenda emphasizes a stronger European pillar within NATO, a 3.5% of GDP defence spending target, and joint...
U Mich Survey Shows Expectations Decline Amid Iran Conflict
"Expectations Worsen After Start of Military Conflict in Iran" - U Mich sentiment survey https://t.co/bJlKLotCQ1
US Eases Russian Oil Bans, Boosting Putin’s War Funds
US Treasury Allows More Russian Oil Sales to Help Tame Prices. And Putin is laughing as he heads to the bank and thumbs his nose at sanctions. And has needed revenue for his Ukraine war. https://t.co/zWRhldvD7W
RBI Net Buys Record $6.2 Billion Debt to Shield Bonds From War Shockwaves
The Reserve Bank of India purchased a record 572.10 billion rupees (about $6.2 billion) of government bonds in the week ending 6 March, marking its third straight week of net buying. The purchases are part of a broader liquidity infusion strategy aimed at...
Overcapacity Rules Target All Except China
The real problem isn't the overcapacity (really state support for further investment in sectors with overcapacity) 301 against China. It is the overcapacity 301s against everyone else. 1/
China’s JV Rules Succeed via Approval Leverage, Tariffs, Cheap Currency
This is a critical point -- China's JV requirements worked b/c China had to approve investments (so it had leverage) generally speaking & b/c China had relatively high tariffs (25% on autos) and an undervalued exchange rate so there was a...
Japan’s Oil Move Exposes Vulnerability, Boosts China’s Leverage
Japan taps oil reserves as Iran war spreads. Could it give China leverage? With Tokyo and Beijing still at loggerheads over Taiwan, analysts warn Japan’s decision exposes its economic vulnerability Yet another "Iran war gives Beijing leverage' piece, short answer....no... https://t.co/nx95uxzmnh
Rising Fuel Costs and Wage Disinflation Curb Spending, GDP 0
Big pop in pump prices will drag on discretionary spending when wages succumbing to disinflation. And consider starting point of 0.7% GDP coming into 2026 (which today’s GDP revisions demonstrate were driven WAY MORE by fundamentals vs old narrative of...
Crude, VIX, Bitcoin Surge After US‑Israel Iran Attack
big picture % change since U.S. & Israel attacked Iran... crude + $VIX & Bitcoin up the most... https://t.co/lK9FCWy5TY
Weak Q4 GDP Gives Fed Leeway to Cut Rates
U.S. GDP grew by only 0.7% in the fourth quarter, compared with the forecast of 1.4%. The pace of growth has slowed noticeably. In such a situation, the Federal Reserve has more room not to keep interest rates high for too...
Core PCE Inflation Jumps to 3.1% in January
Core prices rose 0.36% in January in the PCE index (Nov and Dec price levels were revised up slightly), raising the 12-month inflation rate to 3.1% This index had fallen to 2.6% in April 2025 Headline was +0.28% in January and 2.8%...