Today's Global Economy Pulse
Australia's April CPI eases to 4.2% as core inflation hits 2024 high
Australia’s consumer price index slipped to a 4.2% annual rise in April, missing the 4.4% consensus as a temporary fuel excise cut trimmed transport costs. At the same time, the trimmed‑mean core inflation gauge rose to 3.4% year‑over‑year, the highest level since late‑2024, keeping pressure on the Reserve Bank of Australia’s inflation target.
Iran-Israel Conflict Driven Fuel Cost Spike Hits United Airlines (UAL) Results
United Airlines warned that a 15% jump in jet fuel prices, sparked by the Iran‑Israel conflict, could dent its short‑term earnings. The spike helped push United’s stock down about 4.5% and contributed to a broader market sell‑off, with peers such as American, Delta, and Southwest falling 3‑5%. Over 20,000 flights have been canceled, leaving thousands of passengers stranded and exposing airlines to revenue gaps from tickets booked at pre‑spike fares. Rothschild & Co. Redburn trimmed United’s price target to $110, citing heightened fuel‑cost uncertainty and accelerating domestic capacity growth.
DOF Secures $800-M World Bank Loan for Investments, Job Creation
The Philippines' Department of Finance secured an $800 million development loan from the World Bank under the Growth and Jobs Development Policy Loan. The financing targets three pillars: stronger fiscal management, enhanced private investment, and expanded labor‑force capabilities. By focusing on...
Business Cycle Indicators: GDP Growth Downshifts, Consumption Slows, Downside Surprise
The latest business‑cycle data show Q4 GDP growth slashed by roughly half compared with the prior estimate, while consumer spending missed consensus by almost 0.5 percentage point on an annualized basis. Revised non‑farm payroll figures indicate a modest downward bias...
Maria Bartiromo's Wall Street - Friday, March 13
Maria Bartiromo's Wall Street aired on Friday, March 13 on Fox Business, delivering a 20‑minute episode focused on market trends and financial commentary. The broadcast was part of the network’s daytime lineup, interspersed with several paid‑programming blocks. Viewers could stream...
Transcript: The Economic Fallout of the Iran War
The US‑Israeli strikes on Iran prompted Tehran to shut the Strait of Hormuz, cutting roughly a fifth of global oil flows and pushing Brent crude above $100 a barrel. The surge in oil and LNG prices is spilling into gasoline,...
Iran Shifts Oil Payments to Yuan, Undermining Dollar Dominance
Iran has stated it will allow tankers through the Strait of Hormuz - but only for shipments paid for in Chinese yuan rather than US dollars. The dollar is THE standard currency of the fossil fuel trade. Iran didn’t just announce...
Top Chinese Entrepreneurs Commit to Middle East Expansion Despite Iran War
Chinese tech magnates, including the founders of TCL and Xpeng, announced plans to double their outbound investment, targeting the Middle East and Latin America. The pledge comes as the US‑Israel conflict with Iran escalates and Washington intensifies pressure on Venezuela....
Oil Shocks Lift Risk Premiums, Weaken Markets, Curb Inflation
Risk premium rising across equities and credit while intraday correlation between oil and equities around -80%. Oil shocks push the tide out and expose underlying weak links. The peak in oil in June 2022 explained the first low in markets...
Weekly Recap (3/13/2026)
The weekly recap highlights a sharp rise in oil to $99 amid the Iran‑Israel conflict, pressuring equities and widening the S&P 500 correction. Gold and silver have pulled back 10% and 33% respectively, but the author views these moves as...
Canada's Public Workforce Surges, Private Growth Stalls
Public sector employment in Canada grew 27% over the past decade. The private sector grew 13%. Today, roughly one in five Canadian workers is in the public sector. Self-employment continues to decline. Here is the uncomfortable math: Step 1: Businesses create goods and...
Boosting China-India Ties Should Be Pillar of Hong Kong’s Five-Year Plan
Hong Kong’s upcoming five‑year plan proposes making the Sino‑Indian partnership a strategic pillar. The proposal calls for extending visa‑free entry for Indian nationals, leveraging the Indian diaspora for scholarships and AI talent, and offering tax incentives to attract Indian firms...
Trump Tells South Korea He Is only Leader Who Can Break North Korean Deadlock
U.S. President Donald Trump and South Korean Prime Minister Kim Min‑seok met in Washington to discuss reviving high‑level talks with North Korean leader Kim Jong‑un. Trump asserted he is the only Western leader capable of breaking the Korean Peninsula deadlock,...
Wall Street Drops, Set for Weekly Loss as War on Iran Fuels Inflation Worries
Wall Street closed lower on Friday, with the Dow, S&P 500 and Nasdaq all in the red, putting the week on a negative trajectory. The decline was driven by heightened tensions in the war on Iran, which pushed crude oil above...
Gold’s Safe‑Haven Appeal Fading: Overlooked Factor Emerging
Is the gold rush over? The safe haven appeal seems to be fizzling out in gold and silver, the reason is probably something most are overlooking.
Trump's Actions Push Russia and China Closer Together
.@AlexGabuev in FT op-ed: “‘The one thing you never want to happen is you never want Russia and China uniting. I’m going to have to un-unite them’…Fourteen months into his second presidency, Trump’s actions are having precisely the opposite...
The UK North Sea at a Tipping Point: Why the UK Government Must Act Now
The UK North Sea faces a critical juncture as high taxes, a ban on new licences and geopolitical volatility are eroding investment and jobs. An effective tax burden of about 75 % under the Energy Profits Levy has driven rigs and...
U.S. Better Equipped for Prolonged Oil Price Surge
Washington Post: Years spent preparing for a global energy crisis have left the country and its economy better positioned than most to endure a long-term hike in the cost of oil and gas. https://t.co/Z93avoq3HM
China’s Gulf Moves Accelerate De‑dollarization, Curb US Sanctions
Did we just accelerate de-dollarization, strengthen China’s position as a future security guarantor/mediator in the Gulf and long-term weaken the power of US financial sanctions all in two weeks? https://t.co/A3fRsI7R5i https://t.co/H83a474m3Y
China’s Global Port Push Reveals Supply Chain Security Goals
A new AidData report shows China granted or loaned $23.9 billion to finance 168 ports across 90 countries between 2000 and 2025. The investments, covering construction, expansion and equipment, often sit near Chinese‑financed mines and have hosted naval visits at more...
India Poised to Lead Amid New Global Oil Crisis
The global map is being redrawn, and India is right at the center of the new oil crisis. With our non-aligned status, we are in a rare position to take the lead. Dive into the full analysis of what happens...
Middle East Crisis Threatens Global Heavy‑Industry Supply Chains
"The Narrowing Straits: Why the Middle East Crisis is a Fault Line for Global Industry" - my own expert comentary on a recent interview with Maersk CEO Vincent Clerc, and the impact on key heavy industries and supply chains they...
Iran War Knocks Out Thai Mideast Rice Exports, Squeezing Farmers Harder
Thai rice exporters halted two ships carrying 80,000 tonnes bound for Iraq after a Thai vessel was struck near the Strait of Hormuz, effectively pausing Middle‑East shipments. The disruption comes as Thailand’s rice export outlook has already slipped 11% to...
US LNG Demand Soars, Venture Global Expands Plant
MORE US LNG EXPORTS 🇺🇸 🚢 Venture Global will move forward with an $8.6 billion expansion of its third LNG plant in Louisiana Global demand for US LNG is surging as the war in the Middle East cuts off shipments from...
Contentious Fed Decision Will Heighten Market Concerns About Iran
Video of what I'm watching for next week: A Contentious Fed Decision Will Add to Market's Iran Concerns https://t.co/Ikll4zvVyq
Analysis: Ramadan Inflation Surges, with Geopolitics Adding New Risks
Indonesia’s February 2026 consumer price index rose to 4.76% year‑on‑year, overshooting the 1.5‑3.5% target range. The surge is driven by Ramadan‑related food demand, a government free‑meal scheme, and sharply higher electricity tariffs. Commodity pressures are amplified by a tenfold cut...
Iran Stands Firm; China Faces Bigger Oil Risks
The threat to destroy Kharg Island won't convince Iran to back down. But it might convince China to convince Iran to back down. Oil prices may harm the US, but an actual oil shortage or global recession will hurt China.
Strait of Hormuz Blockade Endangers Fertilizers, Aluminium, Plastics, Helium
It's not just oil and gas. What other crucial commodities are under threat from the blockage of the Strait of Hormuz? Fertilisers, aluminium, plastics, helium and more. https://t.co/H1tRNgqzv6
U.S. Officials Have Discussed Trading Oil Futures, Burgum Says
U.S. officials, including Interior Secretary Doug Burgum, confirmed that the Trump administration has discussed using oil futures contracts to temper soaring crude prices amid the escalating Iran‑Israel conflict. While the idea was explored, Burgum said no concrete market intervention has...
Fed Leadership Split Complicates Inflation and Labor Outlook
My take on the difficultly navigating the splintering within Fed leadership amidst tension of inflation and the labor market.
Gundlach Unlocked: Positioning for Inflation and a Weaker Dollar
In the debut episode of Gundlach Unlocked, DoubleLine founder Jeffrey Gundlach warned that inflation is likely to stay above the Federal Reserve’s 2 percent target and that long‑term rates have stalled despite recent cuts. He also sees the U.S. dollar entering a...
Rick Rule: Oil Shocks, Mining Costs, and Lessons From the ’73 Arab Embargo
Rick Rule warns that renewed oil price volatility is inflating mining operating costs and reshaping the sector’s risk profile. He draws parallels to the 1973 Arab Oil Embargo, noting how energy shocks can trigger profound real‑asset cycles. The interview also...
U.S. Vows to Block Iran’s Attempt to Shut Down Strait of Hormuz
The United States announced it will actively prevent Iran from closing the Strait of Hormuz, a vital artery for global oil shipments. Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth downplayed the disruption but affirmed U.S. readiness, while the Trump administration lifted select sanctions...
Volatility Grips Wall Street, Judge Rejects Subpoenas of Fed Board | The Close 3/13/2026
Wall Street faced modest declines as the S&P 500 slipped 0.3% amid heightened oil price volatility and ongoing geopolitical tension in the Middle East. A federal judge dismissed subpoenas targeting the Federal Reserve Board and Chair Jerome Powell over alleged renovation...
Q4 GDP Halved, Inflation Rises: Stagflation Hits Markets
The number Wall Street was dreading arrived today. Q4 GDP was revised down to 0.7% — literally half the initial reading — while core PCE inflation climbed to 3.1%, its highest since early 2024. The S&P 500 responded by hitting...
Centre Flags War Risk to Thai Growth
The Center for Economic and Business Forecasting at UTCC outlined three Middle‑East war scenarios, estimating that a prolonged, wide‑scale conflict could shave 2.31 percentage points off Thailand’s GDP. In the worst case, energy‑cost burdens would rise above 200 billion baht, exports could...
BOJ Seen Waiting Till April for Rate Hike Amid Iran War Turbulence
The Bank of Japan is expected to keep its policy rate at 0.75% at the March 2026 meeting, postponing any hike until at least April. Market participants cite heightened volatility from the Iran‑Israel conflict and surging energy prices as key...
Treasury Tapped Parallel Dollar Market, Used $2.5B, Made Profit
👀 💵Remember the fuss about Bessent conducting an ESF-funded fx swap exchange to support the Argentinian peso back in October 2025? We now have the details of those transactions via the quarterly reporting Congress requires for Treasury’s Exchange Stabilization Fund operations. They...
Market Swings Trading Amid the Fog of War (E254)
DoubleLine’s March 13 Minutes highlighted a market caught between lingering war‑driven energy shocks and rising inflation concerns. Eric Dhall and Ryan Kimmel noted that energy stocks remain volatile while front‑end Treasury yields climb amid jittery price data. Fed funds futures shifted...
US Warned of China Rare Earth Curbs if Section 301 Tariffs Expand
The U.S. Trade Representative announced Section 301 investigations into 16 countries, including China, and separate probes into 60 economies over forced‑labor concerns. In response, Chinese officials warned they could reinstate rare‑earth export restrictions and halt soybean purchases if Washington proceeds with...
Data Mining? Old Servers Could Become New Source of Rare Earths
Enterprises are eyeing retired server hardware as a new source of rare earth elements after Korea Zinc entered talks with major U.S. tech firms to recycle data‑center waste. The initiative follows Western Digital’s pilot with Critical Materials Recycling and comes...
Is Stagflation Creeping Into the Picture?
In this episode of Motley Fool Money, hosts Travis Hoyam, Jason Moser, and Lou Whiteman dissect the risk of stagflation in 2026, highlighting the recent dip in Q4 GDP growth to 0.7% and persistent inflation above 3%. They explore how...
Underlying PCE Inflation Hits 3.2% in January
The PCE-based ecumenical underlying inflation measure was 3.2% in January. This is the median of 24 numbers: 8 concepts measured over 3, 6 and 12 months.
China Ties Strengthen, Boosting Korean Tourism Despite Geopolitics
The geopolitical impact might be negative, but I reckon this brings South Korea even closer to the PRC, probably bullish Chinese tourism to Korea
Israel Admits Targeting Civilian Sites in Lebanon, 773 Dead
ISRAEL CONTINUES BOMBING LEBANON. Today, for the first time, the Israelis admitted targeting civilian infrastructure. Since March 2nd, Lebanon’s Health Ministry reports that at least 773 Lebanese have been killed by Israeli airstrikes. https://t.co/RtUAb9jgfW
Supreme Court Declares Trump Tariffs Illegal, Refunds Delayed
The Supreme Court ruled that Trump’s reciprocal tariffs were ILLEGAL. Now, the US government is slow walking the refunds Americans are due. Once the government illegally taxes you, it’s hard to get a legal refund. https://t.co/crKDhGMBIe
Prime‑age Participation Rates Hit Record Highs Despite Aging Workforce
The *number* outside the labor force will organically rise as the population ages. It says *zero* about labor market health. A better measure is the participation *rate* of prime-age individuals, which excludes those likeliest to be retired or students. It's near...
Recession Bets Surge to Four‑month High on Prediction Markets
Love them or hate them, prediction markets still have some pointed utility. Betting on a #recession this year has hit a four-month high https://t.co/8ycrvzy65o
War on Iran Spikes Fertilizer Prices, Fuels Farmer Backlash
MORE COLLATERAL DAMAGE FROM THE US-ISRAELI WAR ON IRAN: Fertilizer shipments from the Persian Gulf are stuck. Fertilizer prices have jumped about 30%. US FARMERS ARE STARTING TO TURN AGAINST TRUMP. https://t.co/IwXKoWCUj0
Bank of Canada Cuts Rates, yet Yields Rise
tonight at your cocktail 🍸 party when someone says that interest rates are coming down and the central bank has you covered, tell them the @bankofcanada has dropped rates 7 times since Sep/24 and 5 & 10 yields are higher...
2026 Mortgage Rates Show Record‑Low 42‑bp Spread
Since 2000, the average year has seen an 87 bps range between the highest 30-year fixed mortgage rate reading in the calendar year and the lowest reading So far in 2026, that range has been 42 bps Lowest this year: 5.99% Highest...