Today's Global Economy Pulse
Australia's April CPI eases to 4.2% as core inflation hits 2024 high
Australia’s consumer price index slipped to a 4.2% annual rise in April, missing the 4.4% consensus as a temporary fuel excise cut trimmed transport costs. At the same time, the trimmed‑mean core inflation gauge rose to 3.4% year‑over‑year, the highest level since late‑2024, keeping pressure on the Reserve Bank of Australia’s inflation target.
How the Conflict in Iran Is Impacting the Global Energy Market
The ongoing U.S.-Israel conflict with Iran is beginning to ripple through the global energy market, prompting concerns about oil shortages and higher prices. A panel on Washington Week with The Atlantic highlighted rising gasoline costs and the lack of a formal presidential address to the nation. Panelists warned that without clear communication, American consumers may face sustained price pressure. The discussion underscored how geopolitical tension can quickly translate into market volatility.
Trump’s Kharg Strike: Desperate Gamble, War Beyond His Control
Trump's attack on Kharg was an act of desperation He needed a quick "win" to offset the perception that he's lost control of the war Opening Hormuz could take months or longer Oil & financial markets won't wait The War IS out of his...
Trump Seeks to Close $1.6 Trillion Revenue Gap with Raft of New Tariffs
The Trump administration is launching a series of Section 301 investigations and new duties to recoup roughly $1.6 trillion in tariff revenue lost after a Supreme Court ruling. The probes will examine 16 economies for excess factory capacity and dozens more for...
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Federal Funds Rate Vs. LIBOR: Key Differences Explained
The Federal Reserve sets the U.S. federal funds rate, an overnight benchmark that shapes domestic liquidity, inflation, and employment. LIBOR, by contrast, is a London‑based multi‑currency benchmark derived from bank submissions and has long guided global short‑term lending. While both...
Iran-US-Israel War May Cause Short-Term Economic Shortfall in India, Says Piyush Goyal
Union Commerce Minister Piyush Goyal said India’s economy remains resilient despite the Iran‑US‑Israel war, though a short‑term dip in activity is expected. He cited strong fundamentals and a projected 7%‑plus growth rate for the next fiscal year. State Bank of...
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Understanding Reserve Currencies: The Role of the U.S. Dollar
The U.S. dollar remains the dominant global reserve currency, accounting for about 57% of disclosed reserves in Q3 2025, down from a peak of 72% in 2001. IMF data show the euro (20%), yen (6%), pound sterling (5%), Canadian dollar (3%)...
This Week at Stay Tuned, March 14
This week’s Stay Tuned lineup features former Goldman Sachs CEO Lloyd Blankfein discussing the economic fallout of the Iran war, lessons from the 2008 crisis, market outlook and why CEOs should steer clear of politics. A separate episode examines the...
A Recessionary Bear Ahead?
Betting markets have lifted the implied probability of a U.S. recession in 2026 following the onset of Gulf War III, signaling heightened concern over an oil‑price shock. Although the implied recession odds have eased slightly since their peak, they remain well...
Chip Material Prices Double as Middle East Conflict Compounds China's Existing Gallium Export Ban — Wide Range of Materials for...
Prices for key compound‑semiconductor metals have surged, with tungsten, tantalum and molybdenum doubling and gallium climbing 123% to $2,100 per kilogram. The spike follows China’s late‑2024 gallium export ban to the United States and is amplified by the Middle East...
Middle East War Shakes Bangladesh’s Economy with Trade Deals in Flux
The ongoing Middle East conflict is driving up oil and gas prices, prompting Bangladesh to ration fuel and face long queues at stations. Export routes are jeopardized by the closure of the Strait of Hormuz, while higher shipping costs and...
Opinion: How Hong Kong Is Building New Bridges for the Future
James Fok, chief commercial officer of CMU OmniClear, uses the 2026 Hong Kong budget as a springboard to argue that the city must build new physical and digital bridges with mainland China. He contends that deeper infrastructure ties will reinforce Hong Kong’s...
Markets Adjust: Bitcoin’s Smaller Dip After Iran Strike
The US struck Iran's Kharg Island last night — the hub for 90% of Iran's oil exports. Oil jumped $5 a barrel. The S&P 500 flipped negative. Gold fell. And Bitcoin? It dropped 3.5% from its session high and held...
High Leverage and Oil Shock Tighten Crisis Risks
There are parallels now to the lead-up to the last financial crisis, writes @JeffSnider_EDU Leverage is high, funds are gating withdrawals, and officials say it’s contained. Now add an oil shock. The range of outcomes is narrowing fast #OilMarkets #FinancialCrisis #CreditMarkets...
War Fears Spark Market Panic, but Correction May Be Opening Buying Opportunities: Sunny Agrawal
Geopolitical tensions and rising oil prices triggered a broad market sell‑off, prompting panic‑driven declines in large‑cap Indian stocks. Sunny Agrawal of SBI Capital Markets argues the fall reflects exaggerated risk assumptions rather than weakened fundamentals, leaving valuations attractive for long‑term...
Double Standards: Free Trade for Us, Tariffs for Rivals
Free trade for my inputs; tariffs for my competitors. A tale as old as time.
Yuan Can't Fund Hormuz Oil Flows, Dollar Remains Essential
Paying in Yuan for Hormuz passage doesn't work, writes @biancoresearch Oil markets run on liquidity and deep capital markets. China’s financial system can’t absorb global oil flows, There’s no way to verify settlement currency at sea. #OilMarkets #Hormuz #DollarSystem #Geopolitics
US Says Can Provide 'Reliable' Energy Supply to Asia-Pacific
U.S. Interior Secretary Doug Burgess announced that the United States can provide a reliable, affordable and secure energy supply to the Asia‑Pacific amid the Middle East war that has disrupted oil flow through the Strait of Hormuz. The Trump administration’s...
Analysts' Oil Forecasts Serve Producers, Not Truth
One of the things I learned after Russia invaded Ukraine is that many commodity analysts are in bed with oil producers and ship owners. They forecast terrible oil price spikes and financial Armageddon to keep the West from being tough....
U.S. and Israeli Policies Breed Predictable Blowback
Wrong, it's not an 'ancient and rampant evil.' It's blowback and the tragic and predictable result of U.S. and Israeli foreign policy. Can we stop pretending that our actions have no consequences?
Surge in Oil Prices Shakes Pakistan’s Already Fragile Economy
Oil prices have spiked as conflict in the Persian Gulf blocks the Strait of Hormuz, the sole maritime corridor for Pakistan’s crude imports. Over 85% of Pakistan’s oil comes from Saudi Arabia and the UAE, making the country highly vulnerable...
Iran’s Yuan Demand Threatens Petrodollar, Ships Bottlenecked
Did the Greek tanker owner pay in Chines yuan? What will Iran’s payment demand mean to the petrodollar? And the quantity of ships stuck in the Strait?
Iran's Warning Threatens UAE Ports, Strait Oil Flow
Iran telling civilians to get out of UAE ports. After the attack on Kharg. What will it mean to maritime, the Strait, and oil?
Japan, South Korea Ready to Act Against FX Volatility, Ministers Say
Japan and South Korea’s finance ministers voiced serious concern over the sharp depreciation of the yen and won, saying they stand ready to act against excessive foreign‑exchange volatility. The yen slipped to its lowest level in 20 months, hovering near...
Core Services Inflation Spreading Across over Half of Categories
Further proof we have an inflation problem, even before Iran. Core PCE services (ex-housing) shows more and more broadening out of higher prices. Proportion of 105 categories with 3%+ y/y inflation Dec '19: 26% Jun '22: 69% Jan '25: 53% Jan '26: 59% https://t.co/nA65sTTb6A
Tariffs Fail to Boost Manufacturing Jobs, May Reduce Payrolls
"One thing becoming clear: tariffs on foreign imports didn't result in an increase in manufacturing payrolls (and may have directly resulted in the opposite)." 🙀 https://t.co/zvrbKgPxg3 https://t.co/h5DLBYPjf6
Higher Oil Prices Are Just a Short-Term Worry
Oil prices have surged sharply this month, driven by geopolitical friction and OPEC+ output curbs, but analysts argue the rally is transitory. Global inventories remain ample and demand growth is modest, limiting upward pressure. Historical data shows oil’s price cycle...
IEA Warns Hormuz Crisis Could Trigger Historic Oil Disruption
‘The largest supply disruption in the history of the global oil market’: IEA’s take on the Hormuz crisis https://t.co/H9zKo9tCi4
US Lifts Anti-Dumping Duties on 13 Italian Pasta Brands
"The US Department of Commerce has cut anti-dumping duties on 13 Italian pasta brands following an investigation into alleged export undercutting, Italy's Foreign Ministry announced." https://t.co/2KrLcSuyUY https://t.co/7S8ssbunhj
How China Is Wooing Paraguay’s Political Class Away From Longtime Ally Taiwan
China is intensifying a diplomatic campaign in Paraguay, offering all‑expenses‑paid tours of Chinese cities to lawmakers and journalists to showcase its economic might. The outreach aims to persuade Paraguay’s political class to abandon its long‑standing recognition of Taiwan, its last...
Risk‑Off Signals Rise, Yet Core Market Levels Hold
Today felt like a textbook risk-off session. Weak GDP revision. VIX back above 20. Short-term breadth rolling over. Dollar up. Rates pushing toward 4.3%. Oil surging. In CHART THIS I walk through what’s actually changing — and what isn’t. Six viewer questions. Clear levels. No drama. Watch...
Growth or Oil Shock Could Cripple S&P 500
GS: A moderate growth shock could see the S&P 500 drop to 6300, while a severe oil supply shock could trigger a 19% decline to 5400. https://t.co/87Poznn4vR
Elliott Wave Analysis of EURUSD – March 16th, 2026
EURUSD slipped another 200 pips this week, marking a second consecutive decline as market expectations shift away from further Federal Reserve rate cuts. The move reflects heightened inflation risk and a stronger dollar, prompting analysts to apply Elliott Wave theory...
War Disruption Drives Hawkish Stance Across G10 Central Banks
New weekly drops. The war's disruption shapes the investment climate. Hawkish holds by seven of the 8 G10 central banks that meet. RBA could hike. Brazil had indicated a cut before the war. Still seems reasonable....
Hawkish Rate Shift Triggers Lower Growth Expectations
GS: A hawkish rate move has coincided with a decline in the market's pricing of economic growth https://t.co/JO5RIgmjDP
Decentering the Dollar: A Conversation
The Peterson Institute for International Economics hosted a high‑profile conversation titled “Decentering the Dollar,” featuring former Dutch central bank governor Klaas Knot and renowned economist Maurice Obstfeld. The panel examined how the Trump administration’s trade and geopolitical shifts could undermine...
Strait Closure Sparks 360% Surge in Freight Diversions
I missed this project44 press release from earlier this week - Strait of Hormuz Closure Triggers 360% Surge in Ocean Freight Diversions https://t.co/u3NrIui3y3 project 44 Insights - https://t.co/fZoIuMEoDt
Iranian Tankers Resume Loading at Kharg Despite US Strikes
Iranian tankers back to loading at Kharg this morning despite yesterday’s US strikes on the island, which currently stages the vast majority of Iranian exports.
International Imbalances Again? Still? Forever?
The Peterson Institute for International Economics (PIIE) convened a high‑level discussion titled “International Imbalances Again? Still? Forever?” to examine why global trade and current‑account gaps persist. Moderated by Maurice Obstfeld, the panel featured Joseph Gagnon, Hélène Rey, and Alan Taylor,...
Middle East War Drives Policy Swings as G10 Banks Convene
Week Ahead: Eight of the G10 Central Banks Meet, Maybe One Moves: The Middle East War dominates the investment climate. The inflationary implications are first order considerations and there has been a large swing in expectations of central bank policy…...
Weekly Global Economy Snapshot: Key Trends in Charts
What happened in the global economy this week — in charts https://t.co/QMU9rVUUcj via @MollySmithNews https://t.co/qKUd7bcnPi
Trade 360 Degrees: Trade Winds LIVE From DC!
Global trade faces heightened tariffs, divergent industrial policies, and a weakened WTO, creating turbulence across supply chains. At the same time, recent free‑trade agreements and renewed multilateral efforts are opening fresh opportunities. The Peterson Institute for International Economics hosted a...
LPG Tankers Cross Hormuz After Tehran‑Delhi Talks
One-off or sign of easing? Two tankers transporting LPG (think the butane canisters) have crossed the Strait of Hormuz in the last few hours on the way to India. The crossing happened after gov-to-gov talks between Tehran and New Delhi....
Starmer's Economic Revival Hopes Dim Amid Iran War
Starmer’s hopes to revive the UK economy are fading as Iran war drags on https://t.co/bp1l1ELBA0 via @alexwickham https://t.co/xDIqYkHO1e
The Future Economic Architecture of the Eurozone
The Peterson Institute for International Economics hosted a high‑level panel on the future economic architecture of the eurozone. The discussion featured Spain’s finance minister Carlos Cuerpo Caballero, ECB Executive Board member Isabel Schnabel, and senior economists Olivier Blanchard and Ángel...
Oil Shocks Ripple Through Every Product, Exposing Economic Vulnerability
Why oil shocks still hit everything we buy. “We should be very concerned, the longer the conflict lasts, the more prices will rise and ripple through the economy.” From petrol to plastics, another fossil fuel crisis shows how exposed economies remain...
Industrial Policy for Development
The Peterson Institute for International Economics hosted a briefing on a new World Bank report examining the resurgence of industrial policy in the 21st‑century. The study finds developing economies, especially upper‑middle‑income nations, are the heaviest users, allocating an average of...
Key UAE Port Suspends Oil Loadings After Drone Attack, Fire
The United Arab Emirates suspended oil‑loading operations at Fujairah, its primary oil‑trading hub, after a drone strike ignited a fire on Saturday. The blaze was quickly extinguished, opening the possibility for loading to resume. At the time of the attack,...
Germany's
Good Morning from Germany, which investors increasingly see as one of the losers of the current oil shock. Germany’s share of global mkt cap has fallen <1.95%, lowest level since early 2025. There is growing concern that persistently high energy...
Iran-Israel Conflict Driven Fuel Cost Spike Hits United Airlines (UAL) Results
United Airlines warned that a 15% jump in jet fuel prices, sparked by the Iran‑Israel conflict, could dent its short‑term earnings. The spike helped push United’s stock down about 4.5% and contributed to a broader market sell‑off, with peers such...
Trump's Actions Push Russia and China Closer Together
.@AlexGabuev in FT op-ed: “‘The one thing you never want to happen is you never want Russia and China uniting. I’m going to have to un-unite them’…Fourteen months into his second presidency, Trump’s actions are having precisely the opposite...