Today's Global Economy Pulse
Australia's April CPI eases to 4.2% as core inflation hits 2024 high
Australia’s consumer price index slipped to a 4.2% annual rise in April, missing the 4.4% consensus as a temporary fuel excise cut trimmed transport costs. At the same time, the trimmed‑mean core inflation gauge rose to 3.4% year‑over‑year, the highest level since late‑2024, keeping pressure on the Reserve Bank of Australia’s inflation target.
JPMorgan Says Higher Oil Prices Could Spark a 'Domino Effect' That Tanks the S&P 500 by 15%
JPMorgan warned that Brent crude staying above $90 a barrel could trigger a 10‑15% correction in the S&P 500, creating a domino effect across global equities. The bank estimates the equity decline would shave about 1% off U.S. consumer spending through higher gasoline prices and a wealth effect on households holding $56.4 trillion in stocks. Prolonged oil spikes could deepen recession risks as inflationary pressure mounts while growth slows. The outlook follows the recent escalation of the Iran‑U.S. conflict, which has pushed oil near $100 a barrel.
Video on the Iran War
Economist Steve Keen has released a new video commentary on the Iran war, outlining its likely economic and geopolitical repercussions. He apologizes for recent posting gaps, citing a heavy workload and progress on his forthcoming book, "How Economists Will Destroy...
Oil At US$250/Bbl?
Escalating Gulf tensions have reignited a sharp rally in oil, with some analysts speculating prices could approach $250 per barrel. The piece ties this surge to a concurrent rise in gold, arguing that the gold‑oil ratio serves as a key...
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Here it comes. Covering : - US Strike on Iran's Kharg Island - Impact on USOIL & trade idea with targets - Why Gold ( XAUUSD ) isn't moving higher & whats next for it - Stagflation update & its impact - US Indexes update &...
Tory Recklessness Sparked Inflation, Banking Crisis, Oil Embargo
In fact the high inflation and run on the pound that caused the bailout were the result of the previous Tory government's reckless fiscal and monetary loosening in a "dash for growth", a banking crisis caused by the Tory government's...
Kevin O'Leary Says Iran's Strait Of Hormuz Threat Shows World Still Depends On Oil, Alternative Energy 'Didn't Deliver'
Kevin O'Leary warned that Iran's threat to mine the two‑mile‑wide Strait of Hormuz underscores the world's ongoing reliance on oil. He highlighted that oil is the only commodity used across every sector, including by adversarial nations. O'Leary noted that securing...
Global Debt Surges to Record $348 Trillion, Crisis Deepens
‼️Global debt CRISIS is reaching INSANE levels: World debt SPIKED +$29 trillion in 2025, to $348 trillion, the highest EVER. This was the 2nd LARGEST annual increase in HISTORY. Global government debt hit a record $107 trillion.👇 https://globalmarketsinvestor.beehiiv.com/p/us-stocks-dropped-amid-rising-ai-and-geopolitical-uncertainty-weekly-market-recap-trading-week-09-20-a312
2026 Supply Chain Checklist: How to Prepare for Tariffs, AI, and Geopolitical Uncertainty
The 2026 Supply Chain Checklist warns that volatility—from tariffs and geopolitical conflict to cyber threats and climate shocks—has become the norm. Legacy, siloed systems leave firms exposed to costly errors and missed opportunities. The checklist offers a practical roadmap that...
Gasoline, Diesel Prices Seen to Spike Again
Diesel and gasoline prices in the Philippines are set to spike again this week, driven by the ongoing war in the Middle East. The Mean of Platts Singapore benchmark, combined with freight costs, suggests diesel could rise up to P23...
Oil’s Irreplaceable Role Spurs Pro‑Hydrocarbon Shift
Oil is the only commodity on Earth used in every single sector of every economy. Even our adversaries need it. The Strait of Hormuz is two miles wide, and Iran is threatening to mine it. Whether securing it costs $2...
Hormuz Strait Will Eventually Open Despite Recession Fears
I know it won't come in time for the global economy to avoid a recession, but the world WILL eventually pry open Hormuz one way or another. Iran won't have this card indefinitely. This is not the White Mountains of...
Stock Trader’s Guide to Navigating Supply Disruption by Iran War
The outbreak of a protracted war with Iran has lifted oil prices and triggered supply chain disruptions, dragging global equities down 5.5% and delivering the worst monthly performance since 2022. Asian markets have borne the brunt, while airlines and shipping...
Fuel Oil Prices Spike, Threatening Container Shipping Costs
COLUMN: While the price of Brent and WTI crudes remain well below their record high, the cost of fuel oil has surged above the 2022 and 2008 peaks. The surge is a big problem for the workhorse of globalisation: the container...
Trump's Waning Focus Stalls US Ukraine Peace Push
NEW: The US-led peace process in Ukraine is fizzling out because Trump is losing interest and his war against Iran is easing pressure on Russia. “A pause has indeed appeared in the talks. The Americans have other priorities,” Kremlin spox...
Pre-War/Conflict/”Excursion” GDP, Core GDP, and Nowcasts
The Atlanta Fed’s GDPNow nowcast for Q4 2025 shows a modest slowdown, trailing the Survey of Professional Forecasters (SPF) projection. Goldman Sachs, assuming a 21‑day Strait of Hormuz disruption, trims its growth estimate from 2.5 % to 2.2 % year‑over‑year. The SPF survey, collected...
Iran's Hormuz Blockade Catches White House Off Guard
As they said at the White House, "who could have imagined Iran would block the Straits of Hormuz?"
Iran's Inflation Hits 66.2%, World’s Third‑Highest
#IranWatch🇮🇷: Today, I measure Iran’s inflation at a PUNISHING 66.2%/yr. That's the world's THIRD HIGHEST INFLATION RATE. I remain the only reliable source of inflationary measures in Iran. https://t.co/8Dw75zObyw
DRC Govt Reviews Oil Market Risks With Petroleum Distributors
The Democratic Republic of the Congo’s Deputy Prime Minister Daniel Mukoko Samba met with the Professional Group of Petroleum Product Distributors on March 10, 2026 to assess global oil market volatility. The discussion focused on the recent Brent crude surge...
LNG Fleet Shifts to Asia, China Eyes US Supply
⭕️A large number of LNG carriers were diverted from Europe to Asia. Will China restarts buying US LNG? Map form @Kpler I added the red arrows
Trump’s Waiver Ends Flawed Russian Oil Price Cap
By the way, by giving a waiver for Russian crude on water to be sold freely on the market, Trump single-handedly eliminated the "price cap." The "price cap" was one of the lowest-IQ policy decisions in recent years.
Trump’s War Jolts Global Central Banks From Fed to ECB to BOJ
Global central banks are preparing to evaluate the economic fallout from the two‑week US‑Iran conflict. In the coming week, policymakers from the United States, Eurozone, United Kingdom, Japan and other major jurisdictions will announce decisions that could signal a new...
Betting Odds Show 15% Chance of US‑Iran Ceasefire
Betting markets are seeing the probability of a US-Iran ceasefire by the end of the month deflate to an extremely skeptical 15%... https://t.co/Brj4lTcqSK
Global Shift Toward China Signals US Decline
The second map (most of the world moving towards China and away from the US) is post-tariffs but pre-invasion-of-Iran. Will be interesting to see how this evolves. Probably not in a good direction for the US.
AP Exclusive: Turkey's Foreign Minister Hakan Fidan Talks Diplomatic Efforts as Regional War Rages
Turkey’s foreign minister Hakan Fidan told the AP that while no formal US‑Iran negotiations are underway, Tehran appears willing to engage in back‑channel talks. Ankara has tried to mediate, even offering Istanbul as a venue, but Iran rejected discussions on its...
Iran's Alleged Strait Move: Face‑saving Bluff, Not Blockade
If true, this is actually a face-saving withdrawal by the Iranians. It lets them pretend to be mean to US & Israel without actually blocking the strait. But I doubt it’s true. https://t.co/xCTeY2zGRE
Iran Says Hormuz Open, only US/Israeli Ships Barred
"Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi on Saturday said the Strait of Hormuz is open and that the strategic route is only closed to the US and Israeli vessels" Are ships and tankers moving? If not, then where is the problem? Look...
Jet Fuel Prices Soar as War in Iran Ripples Through Global Aviation
Jet fuel prices have spiked to $150‑$200 a barrel after the U.S.–Israel attack on Iran, more than doubling pre‑conflict levels. The surge, compounded by the closure of the Strait of Hormuz, is forcing airlines such as Qantas, SAS and Air...
Oil Spike and Strait Closure Cripple Emerging Markets
Emerging markets down 14% from February highs. The EM rally was built on dollar weakness. Then the Strait of Hormuz closed and oil rewrote the script. Oil at $100 is devastating for importers like India, South Korea, and Turkey. Even exporters need...
Iran War Drives up Global Prices, Hitting Canada
For those of us fortunate enough to be far away and out of the line of fire, the impacts of the war in Iran are economic. Why is the war making the price of so many things more expensive? #canada🇨🇦...
Saudi Arabia Drives OPEC Output Higher Ahead of Iran Conflict, Survey Shows
OPEC’s crude output jumped 640,000 barrels per day in February, the steepest rise since June, driven largely by Saudi Arabia’s production increase. The kingdom lifted output by roughly 340,000 bpd to 10.34 MMbpd and later signaled an additional boost of about...
Newsquawk Week Ahead Highlights (and Week in Review) 16-20th March 2026
The week ahead is dominated by high‑profile diplomatic and monetary events, starting with a US‑China meeting in Paris that will discuss extending the tariff truce and a 25 million‑ton soybean purchase agreement. Nvidia’s GTC will showcase its Vera Rubin GPU roadmap...
Iran’s Hormuz Standoff Exposes Global Power Game
Ugly game theoretics at play in Iran. Teheran has found its pain point in Hormuz, Russia is happy as it gets to sell its 'sanctioned oil', China is flapping like a kite in a hurricane, Europe has an incentive to...
East Asia Oil Import Pincer Beckons Bond Backstop
The outbreak of the Iran war has jolted East Asian markets, exposing the region’s heavy reliance on Middle‑East oil imports. A trade‑risk ranking flags the Philippines and Vietnam as the most vulnerable, while China continues sourcing from Tehran and Russia...
Trade on Macro Fundamentals, Not Noisy Economic Data
Don't stare at spot noisy reported economic data. Answer these questions at a high level. Directionally not precisely. Is the U.S. labor market healthy and labor is in demand Is the population growing Is the 6 month to a...
Fiat Currency Levels Dominate Markets; Gold Is Niche
It actually doesn’t make it a moot point. Bc single most important variable in global markets is relative level of fiat currencies. If you only care about gold, consider yourself fortunate to be in the .0001% of people on the...
FTPL Slope < 1 Reflects Expected Deficit‑repayment Dynamics
Excellent. In FTPL, one can interpret the slope as "what fraction of the deficits did people think would be repaid by later surpluses or lower interest costs?" and the error term as variation from a common value. A slope <...
Markets Dictate Tariffs, War, and Financial Stability
Article and podcast episode: The ‘TACO Trade’: How Markets Can Shape Tariff, War and Financial Stability Policy https://t.co/O3ySkt05wf
Iran Says only US, Israel Barred From Hormuz
Any country except for US and Israel can pass through Strait of Hormuz, Iranian Foreign Minister says: NY Post
Hormuz Shipping Halt Threatens Billions; Resume for All
Because some folks seem confused: I think it’s really bad that shipping through the Strait of Hormuz is halted, and it would be better for pretty well everyone (except Russia) if traffic resumes It will be utterly miserable for billions of...
Oil Loss Anywhere Sends Prices Soaring Everywhere, U.S. Knows
A barrel of oil lost anywhere is a barrel lost everywhere. It’s a global market and acute scarcity in the Middle East/Asia will inevitably spike prices in North America as markets work to incentivize cargoes to fill the hole. US foreign policy...
IEA Taps One-Third of Reserves, Biggest Release Since 1973
IEA just released 400M barrels from emergency reserves. That's one-third of their total stockpile. For context, the largest prior release was during the 1973 oil crisis. This is not normal. $WTI https://t.co/pSOwsqWZJ0
Tariffs Shift US‑China Trade Balance, Not Global Flow
A case study in how tariffs can change the bilateral trade balance but not the global trade balance -- the US is now importing a ton of computers, but essentially zero of those are registering in customs as Chinese made 1/...
Hormuz Threat Lulls: No New Attacks, Interference Persists
🚨Mar 14 Hormuz Update🚨 1️⃣Confirmed attacks: 20 2️⃣Attacks last 24 hrs:0 3️⃣Passage last 24 hrs: 2 4️⃣Average passage: 138 5️⃣Electronic interference: widespread https://t.co/nQ4ZTet45o
Energy Crisis From Iran War Discussed Tomorrow on CNN
Tune in tomorrow when I’ll be discussing today’s energy crisis created by the Iran war with @FareedZakaria on GPS @CNN.
Key Macro Trends Reviewed and Forecast for March
Premium Users - Macro Week in Review/Preview March 13, 2026, on the blog and here https://t.co/2iKkxzCJa9
Yardeni Warns War‑driven Correction, US Credit Cracks
YARDENI: “.. three days after the war began, we concluded it might last longer, leading to a 10%-15% correction, and warned that we could not rule out a bear market. “.. we've become concerned that a weakening US economy might exacerbate...
Use a Simple Mental Model for the Oil Shock
A mental model for how to think about the current oil shock: As I said I’m sure 10 different economists have 10 differing econometric models on what price that flip occurs but you get the idea
Hormuz Blockade Triggers Energy, Shipping, and Food Crises
🚨Strait of Hormuz Disruptions🚨 Implications of Global Trade and Development by @UNCTAD 1️⃣Energy Surge 2️⃣Soaring Shipping Crisis 3️⃣Insurance Spikes 4️⃣Fertilizer & Food Security 5️⃣Insurance Spikes & Higher Borrowing Costs https://t.co/SxnLDTDmwG
US Debt Costs, Not Iran, Pose Existential Threat
The biggest issue the US is dealing with right now isn’t Iran — it’s the cost of its own debt. Plain and simple: The government can’t afford a war at this stage, and higher interest rates are becoming an existential threat. https://t.co/mHVMQJMS82 https://t.co/yW1dmgDC7i
Middle East War's Economic Fallout Explained
Catch me at 8:05am on the economic impact of the war in the Middle East #bbcwales #sundaysupplement Listen at: https://t.co/WBmMlC57rn https://t.co/TZIU8SNTCQ