Today's Global Economy Pulse
Australia's April CPI eases to 4.2% as core inflation hits 2024 high
Australia’s consumer price index slipped to a 4.2% annual rise in April, missing the 4.4% consensus as a temporary fuel excise cut trimmed transport costs. At the same time, the trimmed‑mean core inflation gauge rose to 3.4% year‑over‑year, the highest level since late‑2024, keeping pressure on the Reserve Bank of Australia’s inflation target.
Oil Prices Rise After Trump Claims US ‘Totally Demolished’ Iran’s Kharg Island Export Hub
U.S. forces struck Iran’s Kharg Island, a hub handling about 90% of Tehran’s oil exports, prompting a sharp rally in crude markets. Brent crude jumped 1.8% to $104.98 per barrel, pushing oil above $100 for the first time since the 2022 Ukraine invasion. President Trump called for allies to help reopen the Strait of Hormuz, but responses have been limited, with the UK considering minesweeping drones. The disruption has lifted U.S. gasoline prices to $3.70 a gallon, intensifying consumer backlash.
China’s Iran Oil Choice Shapes US Exit Strategy
Context is that China needs oil from Iran. The cacth22 is: 1. China helps: USA wants to get a fast offramp and avoid boots on the ground - will happen if China helps (then Russia is in a Catch22). China is unlikely...
Lonely Empire
The article warns that the Trump administration has revived overt American imperialism, sparking an active war with Iran and turning Venezuela into a U.S.-controlled satrapy. It claims the United States is pursuing territorial grabs, including Greenland, while seeking to expel...
PS Quarterly Interview: Desmond Lachman
In a recent Project Syndicate interview, economist Desmond Lachman warns that President Donald Trump’s increasingly aggressive foreign policy could revive bond‑market vigilantes and destabilize the U.S. Treasury market. He argues that such stress may puncture the soaring AI‑related equity rally and...
Global Markets Are A-Changin’
Dambisa Moyo outlines three major trends reshaping the global investment landscape, pushing a risk‑on mindset in the short term. These forces are expected to lift risk assets while simultaneously threatening the traditional functioning of capital markets. The article cautions that...
Trade Officials Advised to Find New Export Markets
Caretaker commerce minister Suphajee Suthumpun has instructed Thai commercial attachés to actively seek new export markets, emphasizing diversification in Asia and Europe. The ministry’s new strategy, guided by the TAM model – Think Big, Act Small, Move Right – targets...
Trump Threatens China Trip Delay over Hormuz Blockade
Donald Trump says he could delay his trip to China later this month if Beijing doesn’t help in unblocking the Strait of Hormuz. — FT
Iran Conflict Sharpens Asia?s Energy Security Focus- #CapitalMarkets #Finance #Treasury #Finance
The escalating Iran‑Israel conflict is spilling into Asian energy markets, prompting the inaugural Indo‑Pacific Energy Security Ministerial in Tokyo. Ministers and industry leaders warned that regional fuel imports are increasingly vulnerable to geopolitical shocks, as military actions push oil prices...
GCC Bond, Sukuk Issuances Plunge Amid Iran War- #CapitalMarkets #Finance #Treasury #Finance
GCC dollar‑denominated bond and sukuk issuances have plunged since the Iran war erupted, despite the region’s strong credit fundamentals earlier in 2026. The GCC still represents roughly 40% of all emerging‑market dollar issuance this year, with outstanding DCM at $1.2 trillion....
Trump Mulls Deal in the Mirror
Former President Donald Trump signaled openness to negotiations with Iran to resolve a dispute that has disrupted oil markets and nearly halted shipping through the Strait of Hormuz. He said Iran wants a deal but the terms must include Tehran...
Trump Threatens Xi Summit Delay If China Doesn’t Help in Hormuz
Donald Trump warned that he would postpone his upcoming summit with Chinese President Xi Jinping unless Beijing assists in securing the Strait of Hormuz. The demand came amid a US‑Israel war that has tightened global oil supplies and highlighted the...
Hong Kong Should Work to Ensure a Steady Fuel Supply Amid War in Iran
The escalating U.S.-Israel conflict with Iran is disrupting global oil supplies, prompting price pressures across Asia. In Hong Kong, petrol station prices have risen modestly, while airlines such as Cathay Pacific and Hong Kong Airlines are set to double fuel...
Small Firms Under Pressure as Costs Soar
Thai small and medium enterprises are confronting a perfect storm of rising energy and logistics costs, tighter loan conditions, and geopolitical uncertainty. The Federation of Thai SMEs notes that corruption and competition from expanding retail chains further erode profitability, especially...
EU Doesn’t See Risks to Oil and Gas Supply Yet
In ad‑hoc meetings on March 12, the EU’s Gas and Oil Coordination Groups reported no immediate security‑of‑supply risks despite ongoing Middle East tensions. Oil inventories across member states remain at elevated levels, while gas storage fill rates are stable and not...
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Defense & Aerospace Report Podcast [Mar 15 ’26 Business Report]
During the March 15 Defense & Aerospace Report podcast, analysts discussed how the escalating US‑Israel‑Iran conflict and extended Russian energy sanctions are pushing oil prices higher, despite a 400‑million‑barrel reserve release. Weaker U.S. employment data and modest Q4 2025 growth...
And Now for a Shortage of Everything
The article highlights that the Middle East produces roughly 45% of the world’s sulphur, a key input for fertilizers and a broad range of chemicals. Sulphur’s central role in manufacturing and agriculture makes its supply a strategic vulnerability. The piece...
The 50 Geoeconomic Minds Every CEO Should Be Reading in 2026
Geoeconomic thinking has moved from an academic niche to the core of foreign‑policy and corporate decision‑making. A relatively small cohort of about twenty scholars, including Luttwak, Farrell and Newman, shape how governments design sanctions, control technology and assess supply‑chain risk....
Hormuz Closure Risks Boost Long Volatility Gains
They had all weekend to think something up. The best they could come up with is sailing into a turkey shoot… Think it’s time to accept the obvious. Hormuz opens when the Iranians want it to open. Only way Trump can...
Inaction Costs: US Will Reward Allies, Punish Bystanders
Maybe sounds like just words, but countries not chipping in here are running a risk. Let us look at the US perspective: 1. Iran is a terroist state, that has been supporting terroism for decades, had a 'death over...
The Iran Crisis Is Hitting KiwiSaver Balances – but Market Volatility Can Work for You Too
New Zealanders watching their KiwiSaver balances see declines as oil prices jump above $100 per barrel following the US‑Israeli attack on Iran. Higher oil costs drive inflation, interest‑rate hikes and reduced corporate profits, pushing global equity markets lower, including the...
The Closed Strait of Hormuz Is Testing Asia’s Energy Security. The Answer Lies Across the Pacific—In Canada
Iran’s IRGC announced the closure of the Strait of Hormuz, prompting 150 oil and LNG tankers to remain idle and forcing Qatar Energy and others into force majeure. The shutdown stranded roughly 20 million barrels of crude per day and sent...
The Iran-Israel-US War Is Exposing China’s Alliance Problem
The Iran‑Israel‑U.S. war underscores how the United States leverages a dense network of allies, from Gulf partners providing early‑warning data to Indo‑Pacific nations offering bases and logistics. U.S. officials highlighted Israel’s combat prowess, but the broader coalition’s role is the...
Mounting Interest Costs Pushed Debt Service Bill to P2.1 Trillion
The Philippines’ debt service bill surged to P2.1 trillion in 2025, a 4 percent increase over the previous year and 2.44 percent above the government’s P2.05‑trillion target. Interest payments jumped 11.8 percent to P854.1 billion, representing 19.4 percent of total revenues and 14.3 percent of expenditures. Domestic...
BSP Seen Unlikely to Rush Into Hawkish Action
Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas (BSP) is unlikely to raise interest rates immediately despite oil prices breaching $100 per barrel. Inflation remains modest at 2.4%, within the central bank’s 2‑4% target, and the BSP recently cut its policy rate to 4.25%...
War and Summer–A Double Whammy for Energy Markets
The escalation of the U.S.-Israel-Iran conflict has driven Brent crude above $100 per barrel, creating a global energy shock. Simultaneously, the Philippines faces a summer heat‑index surge that will require roughly 3,340 MW of additional peaking capacity to keep the grid...
Philippines-Chile FTA Talks Seen Wrapping up in April
The Philippines is poised to finalize a free‑trade agreement with Chile by April 2026, after a series of negotiations that left only a few items unresolved. Bilateral trade last year totaled $334 million, with exports of $43.3 million and imports of $290.8 million,...
It Was Unthinkable a Couple of Weeks Ago, but Could the Next Move by the Fed Be a Rate Hike?
The Federal Reserve’s March 18 meeting may break the recent easing trend as traders assign a roughly 25% probability to a rate hike, driven by a sharp oil‑price surge linked to the Iran conflict. Chief economist Carl Weinberg warns that...
Few Missiles and Drones Can Keep Hormuz Shut Indefinitely
Question for all the maritime insurance experts out there - what will it take for the large P&I clubs to reactivate coverage through the Strait of Hormuz? One of my takeaways from this conflict is how few missiles and drones it...
Oil Demand Loss Hurts Big Economies More than Small
At risk of sounding unkind, for the global economic impact, it matters where oil demand destruction happens. The GDP hit — and spillover — isn’t the same if it occurs in a small economy like, say, Bangladesh, than if it happens...
Instantaneous PCE Inflation with Nowcasts/Tracking
Goldman Sachs’ tracking model nudged its February core PCE inflation nowcast higher, while the Cleveland Federal Reserve’s nowcast suggests lower instantaneous inflation for February and March. The two estimates diverge because Goldman Sachs blends judgmental inputs with data, whereas the...
Stock Futures Gain as Oil Eases From Earlier Highs: Markets Wrap
U.S. and European stock index futures rose after crude oil eased from earlier highs, following President Donald Trump’s call for nations to help reopen the Strait of Hormuz and his indication that the United States is in talks with Iran....
Individual Investors Are Chasing Oil’s Surge Amid Iran Conflict; Institutions Are Thinking About What Comes Next
Oil prices surged to $100 a barrel as the Iran‑Hormuz crisis intensified, prompting a wave of individual buying in the United States Oil Fund (USO). USO attracted nearly $1 billion of inflows and has risen about 46% since the conflict began,...
U.S. War Deepens Iran's Dictatorship, Raises Gas Prices
He puts his name on everything, so let’s make sure his name is on this, too: —> “Overall, it has not toppled Iran’s dictatorship and might have strengthened it. We helped install a younger supreme leader, Mojtaba Khamenei, who may be...
Rising Oil Price and Inflation Fears Make Rate Hike Likely
Oil prices have spiked above $100 a barrel as the war in Iran forces the Strait of Hormuz to close, prompting the International Energy Agency to label the disruption the worst in history. Australian economists and the RBA’s futures market...
MarketWatch: “The Financial Sector Is Sending some Spooky Technical Signals About the Stock Market”
DataTrek co‑founder Jessica Rabe warned that the financial sector’s weakness reflects dual concerns: exposure to private‑credit assets and the prospect of higher oil prices slowing the U.S. economy. She noted that historically, a rapid doubling of oil prices within a...
Trump’s Erratic Demands Jeopardize Hormuz Cooperation, Iran Outlasts
It’s hard to see how international countries will cooperate with Trump on keeping the Strait of Hormuz open after 14 months of erratic demands. It’s one thing for Trump to complain about paying for European protection (somewhat understandable) but asking...
African Nations Tiptoe Around Recruitment of Citizens by Russian Networks
Kenya’s foreign minister is traveling to Moscow to demand an end to Russian recruitment of Kenyan citizens, amid reports that over 1,000 Kenyans and more than 1,700 Africans overall have been enlisted to fight in Ukraine. African governments, including Ghana...
All Five Asset Classes Align: Stagflation Signals Return
Gold up. Oil up. Bonds down. Stocks wobbling. Dollar flat. When this many asset classes move at once, the market is repricing the entire macro regime. This pattern has a name: stagflation. The last time all five conditions aligned simultaneously was 1979-1980. What...
Korea Faces Economic Shock and Shifting Security Guarantees
hard to be korea right now fuel price cap - first oil intervention since 1997 THAAD system forcibly relocated away (historians estimate korea has taken 0.5% hit to GDP from china) stock mkt down 10% china/NK deterrence weakening security guarantees will likely change forever
Iran Risk Unpriced, Threatening GCC and AI Tech
I will keep repeating: IRAN RISK NOT PRICED IN https://t.co/4PcaQ3ES81 GCC countries at risk and with it our Tech darlings #AI
Strait of Hormel Closed, Chili Spikes to $200 per Barrel
the Strait of Hormel remains closed and the price of chili has surged to $200 a barrel
Qatar, Kuwait Will Dump US Assets Amid GDP Collapse
If their GDP drops 14%, do you think Qatar and Kuwait will: a) Slash government outlays (thereby risking domestic unrest), or; b) Sell USTs & US equities “until their hands bleed” to raise USDs to buy needed goods to try to...
Promises of 5% Growth Ignore Looming Debt Reality
January 2025: "Don't worry about the $2 trillion deficit and the rising national debt. We are going to grow our way out of it with 5% Real GDP." Today: "Wait till next year." https://t.co/D1ZtfYxn0r
IEA vs Market: Hormuz Closure Impact Dispute
Iran's supreme leader says the Strait of Hormuz should remain closed. Tankers are burning near Basra. The market is treating this like a temporary disruption. The IEA is treating it like a structural one. Someone is wrong. https://t.co/VEZoi3Wz44
Global Tensions Trigger Fertilizer Shortage, Food Price Surge
More supply chain extension of Iran war. China halts fertilizer exports. How does Trump’s trade war with Canada and Canadian potash fit here for US farmers? Which can affect the E2E food supply chain. That supply-inflation loop.
Crude Oil's 48% Surge Marks Second‑Largest 2‑Week Jump
Crude Oil Futures started trading in 1983. The 48% spike over the past 2 weeks was the 2nd biggest 2-week % increase in history. From $67/barrel to $99/barrel... Video: https://t.co/P29a0c5vMR
Government Claims 20% Health Insurance Cost Drop—Absurd
The most absurd number in CPI? According to the US Government, the cost of health insurance has declined 20% over the last 5 years... https://t.co/Iw2M0izZim
Iran Conflict Triggers Massive Flight Cancellations and Higher Fares
The Iran war has forced the cancellation of TENS OF THOUSANDS of flights across the Middle East. Rerouted flights are burning more fuel and pushing ticket prices higher. TRUMP-NETANYAHU = A WAR TAX. https://t.co/xDKppRjcdi
Trump’s Naive Belief: Decapitation Yields Compliant Iran
Distinguished military historian Phillips O’Brien on the war in Iran: "[Trump] was boasting about American military power... He thought this would be relatively straightforward, [like] the Venezuela model... Kill the leadership, and get a leadership that is much more compliant." https://t.co/gV29tXCQYl
Markets Reset, Not Correct, as Macro Regime Shifts
Gold up. Oil up. Bonds down. Stocks wobbling. Dollar flat. When everything moves at once, the market is repricing the entire macro regime. That's not a correction. That's a reset. https://t.co/tyjpVcTUuH