Today's Global Economy Pulse
Australia's April CPI eases to 4.2% as core inflation hits 2024 high
Australia’s consumer price index slipped to a 4.2% annual rise in April, missing the 4.4% consensus as a temporary fuel excise cut trimmed transport costs. At the same time, the trimmed‑mean core inflation gauge rose to 3.4% year‑over‑year, the highest level since late‑2024, keeping pressure on the Reserve Bank of Australia’s inflation target.
Exante Weekly Report: Oil Surge Threatens Global Economy
Exante’s weekly macro update warns that a sharp oil price surge, driven by escalating Middle‑East tensions and a US torpedo strike on an Iranian submarine, is pressuring global markets. Brent crude settled at $82.60 and WTI at $74.66, marking weekly gains of roughly 15% as the Strait of Hormuz remained closed for a fifth day. While U.S. equities posted short‑term rallies, the S&P 500 fell 1.1% over the week and European indices slipped further. Strong U.S. services and payroll data contrast with rising inflation fears, pushing Fed‑cut odds to 35.5% and boosting ECB‑hike expectations.
Dollar's Rise Is Modest; Will Fall Post‑war
The Dollar has risen against the G10 (lhs) and against EM (rhs), but - once you factor in that this shock is at least 3 times as big as Russia's 2022 invasion of Ukraine - it's trading quite soft. We're...
Chinese Trade Negotiator Li on Talks with US: We Reached Preliminary Consensus
Chinese trade negotiator Li announced a preliminary consensus with the United States covering tariff extensions, trade mechanisms, and economic concerns. Both sides emphasized stability of tariff levels and raised issues such as Section 301 probes and recent U.S. restrictive measures....
Mocking NATO Leaves America Isolated, Leadership Lost
You know how we say in Ukraine: now Trump has to eat the mess pie he was baking for others. You either support alliances, respect your friends and their interests, coordinate with them and thus benefit from partnerships with countries close...
Iran War Chokepoints Begin to Cast Doubt on Global Chip Supply
The ongoing Middle East war is creating chokepoints that could restrict the flow of chemicals, equipment and other inputs essential for semiconductor manufacturing. Rising power costs in Taiwan, the hub of advanced chip production, add further pressure on fab operations....
Iran Conflict Deepens Fed Rate Split, Fuels Inflation Worries
Fed officials were already before divided the Iran war over what to do about rates. Now the conflict threatens to entrench those positions and make it even harder to reach a consensus "Both sides are going to be able to say...
China Risks Belt‑Road Investments as US‑Israel Iran Conflict Escalates
"China Has a Lot to Lose in the U.S.-Israel War on Iran," my latest in @WSJ @WSJopinion The U.S.-Israel war against Iran isn’t only reshaping security and the balance of power in the Middle East. Its stakes are also high...
Thawing Dragon
Former President Donald Trump has largely diverted his attention away from China and President Xi, despite a scheduled meeting later this month. Observers note Trump’s tendency to concentrate on single, transactional issues, leaving broader geopolitical concerns sidelined. The article argues...
China’s 90% Model: Subsidized Exports Decimate Global Competition
𝐓𝐡𝐞 𝐒𝐭𝐫𝐚𝐭𝐞𝐠𝐲 𝐃𝐞𝐬𝐭𝐫𝐨𝐲𝐢𝐧𝐠 𝐆𝐥𝐨𝐛𝐚𝐥 𝐈𝐧𝐝𝐮𝐬𝐭𝐫𝐢𝐞𝐬 For three decades, I have advised over 50 Chinese companies and served on Chinese boards. I have watched American, German, and Japanese companies struggle to compete with Chinese imports. What they face is not competition. It is...
Alcohol-Free Beer and Pet Grooming Used to Measure Inflation
The UK Office for National Statistics has refreshed its consumer price basket, adding items such as non‑alcoholic beer, houmous, motorhomes, dashboard cameras and pet‑grooming services. The revision introduces 27 new products and removes 19, keeping the basket at 760 items....
US Cruises Sail Into Higher Costs as Oil Prices Rally; Carnival Could Be Hardest Hit
Rising oil prices, up more than 35% since the Iran conflict, are inflating fuel costs for U.S. cruise lines. Carnival Corp stands out as the only major U.S. operator that does not hedge its fuel, exposing it to steep profit...
Falling Metals Signal Strengthening Dollar Trend Over Daily DXY Fluctuations
Falling prices of precious metals are a signal that the dollar is getting stronger overall, even though today the DXY may be down a little. What really matters is the trend and not a day in the life of a...
Oil Supply Disruptions Are Rocking Chip Stocks Like Nvidia or AMD, But Should You Buy the Dip?
Rising oil prices sparked by Middle East tensions pushed crude above $100, tightening energy markets and raising electricity costs for data‑center operators. The shock rippled through the semiconductor sector, with the iShares Semiconductor ETF down 3.5% and chip leaders Nvidia...
The Market Brief
US equity futures nudged higher on Monday, led by Meta’s rally after the company disclosed sweeping AI‑driven workforce cuts. Meanwhile, crude oil lingered near the $100‑a‑barrel mark as Strait of Hormuz shipments remained disrupted, keeping risk appetite muted. Elevated energy...
Trump Demands Help with Hormuz; Japan and Australia = NO | Rapid Read 16 Mar 2026
President Trump has pressed allies for US warship escorts through the Strait of Hormuz, but Japan and Australia have declined the request. Drone strikes have forced a shutdown of oil loading at Fujairah and disrupted Dubai airport operations, prompting Saudi...
Canada Trade Pivot Has Funds for Supply Chain Development, but Lacks a Plan
Canada is reshaping its trade policy to cut reliance on the United States, aiming to double non‑U.S. exports by 2035. Prime Minister Mark Carney’s push has unlocked a new C$5 bn Trade Diversification Corridors Fund to upgrade ports, rail and air...
Gold-to-Crude Ratio Hits Record, Signals Potential Peak
Historic Gold Stretch vs. Crude May Signal Peak - "Unsustainably high" describes the 79 barrels of WTI crude oil equal to an ounce of gold at the end of February. Only the collapse to negative crude prices in April 2020...
War With Iran Is Rewriting Global Markets
In this episode of Prop G Markets Live, Scott Galloway and Ed Elson examine how the ongoing war with Iran is reshaping global financial markets, highlighting disruptions in oil supply, heightened geopolitical risk premiums, and shifting investor sentiment. They also...
‘Made in America’ Should Accept Chinese Investment
The article argues that the United States should stop treating all Chinese capital as a security threat and instead allow limited, well‑structured Chinese investment in non‑sensitive sectors. It cites Trump’s “Made in America” agenda, which welcomes foreign money, and contrasts...
Stock Market Week 11/26: High Energy Prices Drive the RENIXX - Ballard Up Double Digits - Nordex: Additional Orders -...
The RENIXX renewable‑energy index climbed 4.9% last week to 1,251 points, driven by soaring oil and gas prices and Middle‑East geopolitical tension. Heavyweight gains came from Ballard Power (+20.1%) after securing a 500‑unit fuel‑cell drive order, while Xpeng, Canadian Solar,...
Tackling Prices Will Help Ignite Growth
The article argues that keeping prices stable is a powerful lever for reigniting UK growth because it allows the Bank of England to cut interest rates. Recent government actions, such as energy‑bill relief, have already shaved inflation, and the BoE...
Carney’s Davos Speech Won’t Fix the World Canadians Actually Live In
At Davos, Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney warned that the post‑Cold‑War rules‑based order is unraveling and outlined a “value‑based realism” strategy focused on sovereign supply chains, AI and critical minerals. He simultaneously affirmed confidence in open capital flows and integrated...
The US Exports Oil, but that Won’t Shield Americans From Higher Gas Prices
Energy Secretary Chris Wright claimed the United States is a net oil exporter, but the reality is more nuanced. While the U.S. does export more crude oil and petroleum products than it imports, it remains a net importer of crude...
Mantashe Pushes Oil and Gas Drive as Global Tension Raises Fuel Price Risks
Mineral and Petroleum Resources Minister Gwede Mantashe warned that soaring global crude prices—now above $100 a barrel—expose South Africa’s reliance on imported fuel and urged a rapid acceleration of domestic oil and gas development. He highlighted significant offshore prospects in...
Listen: What to Expect From the Provisional Application of the EU–Mercosur Agreement
After 25 years of negotiations, the EU‑Mercosur free‑trade agreement is set to be provisionally applied within weeks, following a rare EU signing without France’s formal approval. The deal reduces tariffs on a range of agricultural products while retaining quotas for...
U.S. Asks for Help to Address Energy Crisis
The episode focuses on the U.S. effort to keep the Strait of Hormuz open amid rising energy tensions, detailing President Trump's appeal to allies—including China, NATO members, Japan, and Australia—for naval support, and highlighting European hesitancy due to limited resources...
Global Bear Market Spreads Across All Sectors and Nations
As the decline in the stock market gets more broad-based, people will wake up to the idea that it is really a bear market. The same is true at a country level. As more countries outside the US join the...
The United States Is Losing Its Grip on Canada's Steel Market
U.S. steel exports to Canada fell 22% in 2025, dropping the United States' share of Canadian steel imports to 36% from 39%. Overall Canadian steel imports contracted 16% to 2.4 million tonnes as protectionist measures and retaliatory tariffs reshaped trade flows....
The Sacrifice Ratio Puzzle
Inflation surged to 9.1% in mid‑2022 due to pandemic disruptions and the Russia‑Ukraine war, then fell sharply in 2023 despite unemployment staying low. The traditional sacrifice ratio—unemployment needed to cut inflation—proved near zero, challenging Phillips‑curve expectations. Tariff hikes in 2025‑26...
Uncle Sam Goes Mining in the Congo
The U.S. International Development Finance Corporation, together with Abu Dhabi’s ADQ and New York‑based Orion Resources, signed a non‑binding MOU to acquire a 40% stake in Glencore’s Kamoto and Mutanda cobalt mines in the Democratic Republic of Congo. The move...
Drone Attack Threatens Dubai's Aviation‑Driven Economy
Dubai under serious stress. Airport Dubai atau DXB tutup akibat serangan drone berdekatan. Implications? •Home of Emirates, the world’s most profitable airline, pretax profit USD6.2b (31 Mar 25). •Dubai Airport is the 2nd busiest in the world. •The aviation sector amat penting,...
First Non‑EU Fiscal Response Signals Upcoming Continental Action
First fiscal response out the block; tiny mind, but I suspect continental governments will not be far behind, as will the EU. Important for the ECB's reaction function too.
Northern Shift: Iceland’s EU Bid & Sweden’s Euro Debate
Iceland’s new Social Democratic government has scheduled an August referendum to decide whether to restart EU accession talks, with a Gallup poll showing 52% support for re‑engagement. The island already implements roughly three‑quarters of EU law through its EEA and...
Embargo Iranian Oil, as Missed Russian Embargo Cost War
The big mistake the West made in 2022 was to not embargo Russian oil. That would have spiked oil prices further, but Russia's economy would have imploded and it likely wouldn't still be waging war in Ukraine. The lesson for...
Trump Urged to Welcome Chinese Investment in U.S. Manufacturing
Trump Should Be Open to Chinese Investment in U.S. Manufacturing Private Chinese capital is being locked out of mutually beneficial opportunities. https://t.co/gKtY0mscVo
The Ghost of Gallipoli.
President Trump signaled he may delay his upcoming Beijing summit as the United States intensifies its war against Iran, reshaping the fragile US‑China dialogue. He warned NATO that a lack of European assistance in securing the Strait of Hormuz could...
US, China Push to Seal Trade Talks Before Summit
US, China seek to wrap Paris talks on managed trade, agriculture deals for Xi-Trump summit Managed trade, tough sell in many quarters... https://t.co/XXu7CtHIdB
Trump Threatens Xi Summit Delay without Chinese Hormuz Aid
Trump Floats Xi Summit Delay If China Doesn’t Help in Hormuz “Head of state diplomacy plays an irreplaceable role in providing strategic guidance to China-US relations,” he added, without specifying a timeframe for the leaders’ meeting. https://t.co/2UjmNtyIUW
Strait of Hormuz Marks First Full Day’s Pause as No Ships Cross Amid Iran War
Maritime tracking data recorded zero commercial transits through the Strait of Hormuz on Saturday, marking the first full day without traffic since the U.S. and Israel launched strikes on Iran on Feb. 28. Vessels were observed clustering just outside the narrow...
Neighbor Releases $2 Bn Frozen
This is from the end of December. Was this meant to lure Iran into negotiations? ran says $2bn of frozen assets released by neighboring country https://t.co/miz6slNXAM
Warsh Delay Helps Him, Harms Powell Amid Oil Shock
“Interestingly, any delay in Warsh’s confirmation is a gift to Warsh and a curse for Powell as the Fed now faces the challenge of managing yet another supply side shock with a president that views rate cuts as the answer...
Indexes’ Uncertain Response in a Volatile Container Market
The Iran‑related conflict in the Arabian Gulf is creating sharp uncertainty in container markets, with analysts reporting divergent rate trends. Drewry’s spot‑rate data shows double‑digit increases on Asia‑North America and Asia‑Europe lanes, while Xeneta’s regional data points to stagnant or...
India Buys Pricey Russian Oil Legally, Boosting Putin
Somewhere in the Kremlin, Vladimir Putin is rubbing his hands. India is paying ~$99 a barrel for Russian crude Urals (including shipping costs). And since the US eased its sanctions on Russian crude, it's all legal.
WTI and Dollar Slip, Markets Hope Exit Ramps Amid Conflict
April WTI is trading lower as is the US dollar. The market still seems hopeful that exit ramps are found shortly, even though the conflict escalated over the weekend. Many are skeptical of the unexpected gains in PRC data....
Confusion over Malaysia-US Trade Deal as ‘Null and Void’ Claim Retracted
Malaysia’s highly publicised tariff reduction agreement with the United States has hit a political snag after a senior minister mistakenly announced that a U.S. Supreme Court ruling rendered the deal null and void. The ministry quickly retracted the statement, clarifying...
India, Russia, Iran War Issues Are Distinct, Not Conflated
There have been two major developments involving India, Russia, and the Iran war being conflated. These are two separate issues altogether. Full Newsletter: https://t.co/SjgRO1nWPF #iranwar #crudeoil #geopolitics https://t.co/nhLc5LS8wH
No Policy Can Replace Hormuz Oil Flow Loss
I did not say there's nothing we can do to open the Strait of Hormuz. I said there are no policy options that can offset the loss of flow from the Strait of Hormuz.
Shortening Conflict Drives Oil Prices Down, Prolonging Rises
Every time markets think this conflict lasts longer, oil prices rise. Anything that shortens it makes prices fall. A Trump TACO does that or a blockade of Iran's ports, which'll cause Iran's economy to implode, forcing the Mullahs to reopen...
U.S. Softens Ban on Uyghur Forced‑Labor Goods
“Amid the…turns in the Trump administration’s China trade policy, one feature has attracted little attention: the [U.S.] has apparently eased its efforts to block imports of goods made using the forced labor of China’s Uyghur population.” @economicsnoah https://t.co/C9UGkHv9WW
Belgian PM Urges Russia Normalization for Cheap Energy
Belgium’s PM Bart de Wever: “We must normalise relations with Russia and regain access to cheap energy. That is common sense. [...] We must end the conflict in the interest of Europe, without being naïve towards Putin.” https://t.co/BopPAyhKSL