Today's Global Economy Pulse
Australia's April CPI eases to 4.2% as core inflation hits 2024 high
Australia’s consumer price index slipped to a 4.2% annual rise in April, missing the 4.4% consensus as a temporary fuel excise cut trimmed transport costs. At the same time, the trimmed‑mean core inflation gauge rose to 3.4% year‑over‑year, the highest level since late‑2024, keeping pressure on the Reserve Bank of Australia’s inflation target.
India Restricts Imports of Silver Jewellery with Cheap Diamonds Till June 30
India’s Directorate General of Foreign Trade announced that, effective immediately, imports of silver jewellery studded with cheap diamonds are restricted until June 30, 2026. The move targets a surge in such items from ASEAN nations that have been entering India at reduced duty rates under existing trade agreements. By shifting the import policy from free to restricted, the government aims to curb low‑cost inflows and protect domestic producers. The curbs apply specifically to silver pieces featuring inexpensive diamonds, a segment that has grown rapidly in recent years.
Rate Cuts and Easing Inflation Mask Everyday Cost Pressures
We've had six cuts to interest rates in a row since the general election, and the markets expect inflation to be back on track this year, but the cost of living at home and the unrest abroad means that it...
A Maoist Survival Guide to the Iranian Energy Crisis
China is reinforcing energy self‑sufficiency as the Iran‑Ukraine war disrupts oil supplies. Xi Jinping’s 2021 oilfield visit underscored a Maoist‑style “rice bowl” doctrine, urging domestic production and strategic reserves. Beijing has accelerated renewable investments, expanded state‑owned oil drilling, and built...
Capital Gains Outpace Labor, Concentrating Wealth and Power
Take a look at these two charts together. One is income concentration (Top 10% share of consumption v Bottom 80%), the other is equity market concentration (S&P 500 Growth vs Value weight). In the last 15 years, surplus flowed to capital,...
Rates Spark: The Impact Is No Longer Transitory
The U.S. 10‑year Treasury yield is projected to climb into a 4.25‑4.5% band before easing back toward 4%, driven by higher nominal and real yields after the war’s shock. Even as the conflict winds down, inflation expectations remain structurally elevated,...
US Finalizes Reciprocal Trade Deal with Ecuador
The United States and Ecuador have finalized a reciprocal trade agreement that extends most‑favored‑nation (MFN) tariffs to a range of Ecuadorian products such as flowers, coffee, fruits and chemicals, while granting Ecuador preferential treatment for future US tariff actions. In...
Inside Trump’s Economic Strategy, with EXIM Bank’s John Jovanovic
In a March 2026 Atlantic Council podcast, EXIM Bank chairman John Jovanovic outlined how the Trump administration’s economic strategy hinges on resilient, "free, fair, and functioning" supply chains. He highlighted the bank’s role in financing U.S. exporters amid heightened geopolitical...
UK Mortgage Rates Jump, and Petrol Prices Rise, Amid ‘Trumpflation’ Worries; Oil Price Falls as Bessent Says US Is Letting...
UK mortgage rates edged higher on Monday, with the average two‑year fixed rate climbing to 5.20% and the five‑year rate to 5.25%, reflecting market expectations that the Bank of England will keep policy tight. At the same time, pump prices...
Pulled in Opposite Directions, the Swiss National Bank Is Likely to Keep Rates Steady
The Swiss National Bank (SNB) is expected to keep its policy rate at 0% as inflation remains near‑zero, hovering between 0.1% and 0.3% year‑on‑year. Recent forecasts show a modest rise to 0.2% in 2026 and 0.8% by mid‑2028, supporting a...
War’s End Won’t End Oil Crisis, LNG Recovery Lags
Ending the war does not mean ending the crisis. We have countries that literally shut down production because their storage is full. To bring back that oil to a pre-crisis level takes time. For [liquified natural gas] in particular, it takes a very...
FX Talking: Forecast Table
ING’s research team released its latest foreign‑exchange forecast table on 16 March 2026, drawing on Refinitiv data and internal modeling. The outlook covers major pairs such as USD/EUR, GBP/USD, and emerging‑market currencies, highlighting expected rate movements through the year. Analysts attribute the...
Trade Finance Faces Stress Test as Global Risks Rise
The war in Iran has crippled the Strait of Hormuz, halting non‑Iranian sea traffic and forcing airlines to reroute over the Middle East. Air freight rates on affected corridors have surged more than 70%, while shipping companies avoid the risk...
Oil Continues to Rise, the Federal Reserve, Nvidia's Big Week and More in Morning Squawk
U.S. oil prices breached the $100 mark after President Trump threatened additional strikes on Iran’s Kharg Island, reigniting geopolitical risk in the energy market. A federal judge blocked subpoenas targeting the Federal Reserve, extending the Justice Department’s probe into Chair...
India’s Unemployment Rate Moderates in February, Rural Trend Unchanged
India’s overall unemployment rate slipped to 4.9% in February, down from 5.0% in January, driven primarily by a decline in urban joblessness. Urban unemployment fell to 6.6% from 7.0%, with female urban unemployment dropping to 8.7% from 9.8%. Rural unemployment...
Crude Bottleneck Extends, but Geopolitical Premium Flaring; Brent Oil Will Likely Test $120
The United States carried out large‑scale strikes on Iran’s Kharg Island over the March 14‑15 weekend, targeting military facilities while sparing the island’s crude export terminal. Kharg processes over 90 % of Iran’s oil shipments, so the attacks raise geopolitical tension...
Middle East Conflict Ends Expected BoC Rate Cuts
The Stage Was Set For Bank Of Canada Cuts Later This Year: That's All Gone Now Today's CPI Report would have provided cover for the BoC to cut its key rate at the end of April or June but the War...
Iran War to Hit Europe Directly and Indirectly, Von Der Leyen Warns
European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen warned that the US‑Israeli war in Iran will have direct and indirect repercussions for the EU, citing massive internal displacement in Iran and Lebanon. The Commission announced €458 million in humanitarian aid for Egypt,...
EU Pays More for Bangladesh Garments
A RAPID study shows Bangladeshi garment exporters receive 5‑18% higher prices in the EU than in the US for their top ten products. For T‑shirts, German buyers pay a 20‑27% premium, while trousers fetch 9‑15% more. Exporters typically charge about...
Iran Seeks Return of 3 Tankers Seized by India in Return for Hormuz Safe Passage: Report
India's coastal authorities seized three U.S.-sanctioned oil tankers—Stellar Ruby, Asphalt Star and Al Jafzia—on February 6, alleging illicit trade links to Iran. Tehran has offered to release the vessels in exchange for guaranteed safe passage of Indian‑bound ships through the Strait...
Kroenig Interviewed on CNN on US Action in Iran
Matthew Kroenig, senior director at the Atlantic Council’s Scowcroft Center, was interviewed on CNN on March 13 to defend President Trump’s approach toward Iran. He claimed that recent U.S. actions, including expanded sanctions and calibrated military signaling, are deliberately weakening...
Asia-Europe Air Cargo Space Tightens as Rates, Fuel Surcharges Soar
Air freight between Asia and Europe is tightening as the US‑Iran war curtails Middle‑East corridors, which handle roughly 30% of the trade lane. Simultaneously, jet fuel prices have doubled, prompting carriers to add steep fuel surcharges on top of already...
SPY Preps for Inflation Data and Fed Decision
$SPY levels going into the week. On the agenda: - CPI & PPI Inflation Data (Wed) - FOMC / Interest Rate Decision (Wed) - Fed Press Conference (Wed)
Oil Spike Overblown, Prices Set to Fall Soon
Bessent says too much is being made of the run-up in oil prices from Iran's retaliatory measures to U.S.-Israel strikes, claiming coverage of the risks around the Strait of Hormuz is being amplified by anti-Trump media bias and is part...
Africa’s Critical Minerals Gain Strategic Importance as Global Demand Intensifies
Africa is emerging as a strategic source of rare earths and critical minerals as the United States seeks alternatives to China-dominated processing. The continent hosts vast deposits, including DRC cobalt, Zimbabwe lithium, and new rare‑earth projects in Namibia, Tanzania, and...
Higher Rates, Free Market, Not Fed Cuts, Win
There's going to be a lot of people complaining this week when the Fed doesn't cut rates. Let them. It's the right decision. In fact, interest rates should be much higher than where they are today. The free market should...
Fed Expected to Keep Rates Unchanged at Upcoming Meeting
99% probability the Fed holds rates steady at the next FOMC meeting in 2 days https://t.co/McZZLqnIC5
Annual Inflation Cools to 1.8% in February: Statistics Canada
Statistics Canada reported Canada's consumer price index increased 1.8% year‑over‑year in February, a slowdown from January’s 2.3% gain. The deceleration was largely driven by the end of the GST/HST temporary break, which pushed restaurant prices higher while gasoline and other...
US Growth Slows to Third‑Slowest in 14 Years
Last year, the US economy grew at its third-slowest rate in the last 14 years. https://t.co/RDFeuSRfcT
War Costs Americans at Pump and Grocery
Pres. Trump and PM Netanyahu's war is TAXING Americans at the pump and at the grocery store. US-ISRAELI WAR ON IRAN = COLLATERAL DAMAGE. https://t.co/l1tQlYx8aS
Returns Vary in February’s Positive Markets
February closed with broadly positive market momentum, yet returns diverged sharply across asset classes and regions. U.S. equities posted a 2.3% gain, while emerging market indices lagged, delivering negative performance. Commodities rallied, led by oil and copper, whereas fixed‑income remained...
Trump’s $50 Oil Goal Risks Global Recession
President Trump will get his $50 oil price wish before the elections— but only after triggering a global recession. Or: End the war this week and keep flooding the market with SPR releases in the coming months.
U.S. Soybean Exports Beat Forecast, 57% to China
🇺🇸Last week's U.S. corn export inspections land near the top of trade expectations and soybeans surpass them. 57% of the week's bean cargoes were destined for China. https://t.co/ttZsn3agHO
Winners & Losers | Small Men Want to Destroy the World
In the sixty weeks since President Trump’s inauguration, long‑standing military and economic alliances that underpinned post‑World War II peace have begun to fray. The author argues that Trump’s fiscal mismanagement, confrontational diplomacy, and overextension of U.S. forces have weakened America’s global...
DXY Bears Inside Day, Mirrors VIX Retreat
The $DXY Dollar Index has put in for a bearish 'inside day' from a technical analysis perspective. Happens to align to the $VIX retreat - though the 10-day correlation is waning. Is the Dollar more aligned as a safe haven,...
Tariffs and Midterms Threaten President's Political Capital
Tariffs and elections are historically a toxic mix for US presidents. Are we about to see history repeat itself in this year's midterms? My latest for @BW & @business: https://t.co/46jYYRwocA
First Non‑Iranian Tanker Sails Hormuz Amid Quiet Approvals
Did Iran just negotiate safe passage through the Strait of Hormuz? The Aframax tanker KARACHI just became the first non-Iranian cargo ship to transit the strait with AIS on since attacks on shipping escalated—raising questions about whether certain vessels are...
US Clears Iranian Tankers Through Hormuz as Oil Prices Spike
U.S. Allows Iranian Tankers to Transit Hormuz as Oil Prices Surge and Select Ships Begin Crossing Strait https://t.co/7Cu9sdFEOi
Strait of Hormuz Threatens Global Supply Chains
Strait of Hormuz. Global supply chain risk. Across product and market sectors. Oil. Fertilizer. Sulfur. Aluminum. Natural gas. From logistics to agriculture. And more. Chaos. https://t.co/bI5EP6euSD
Input Cost Surge Won’t Halt Cycle Until 2027
I get why people fear that the input cost spike that we have seen over the past month will end the business cycle, but it is probably more of a 2027 story.. There is a whole "time-line" that we need...
Biden Transforms US Asian Alliances Into Latticework
Nice graphic illustrating the Biden-era shift in the US alliance system in Asia from hub and spokes to latticework. One thought was that it might be “Trump-proof”. This and more on the Chartbook Top Links today. https://t.co/5rn87BajVq
Hormuz: Vital Energy Artery Threatened by Geopolitical Tension
The Strait Of Hormuz: Energy Lifeline Or Global Time Bomb? | 4K Documentary https://t.co/t6N6hRSPrD via @YouTube
Energy Price Surge Threatens to Reverse US Inflation Decline
For most of the past three years, falling energy prices have been helping to push the US inflation rate (CPI) lower. But that tailwind will soon become a headwind, with prices of Oil and Gas spiking on a YoY basis......
Trump's Oil Price Push only Stalls US Shale Output
The funny thing about the Trump admin trying SO hard to jawbone down the price of oil is that the main thing they're accomplishing, beyond a temporary political reprieve, is a delay in the production response from US shale producers.
Hard-to-Shift Supply Chain Risks Loom Under Trump's 2026 Policies
With the easy bits of US-China supply chain decoupling now over, it is the hard-to-move parts that remain. Trump’s 2026 policy decisions have the potential to affect much of the world’s economic security. If he gets them wrong, the worst may...
Hormuz Closure Threatens Oil, Gas, Fertilizer, Food Security
Former CIA analyst Larry Johnson on the GLOBAL IMPACT of the STRAIT OF HORMUZ: "You’ve now closed off 20% of the world’s oil supply, 25% of the world’s liquid natural gas, and 35% of the world’s urea... There's going to be...
Gas Prices Surge 25% in Just Two Weeks
National average of gas prices is up 73 cents since the war started 15 days ago (middle panel), or 25% (bottom panel). https://t.co/NhhuStQnOD
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Fed Must Erase 12% Excess Inflation Before Rate Cuts
The Fed should not even think about cutting rates again until the 12% additional inflation we've had since January 2020 above the 2% trendline is erased. There's no point in having an inflation target if you're not going to adhere...
Consumer Spending Now Driven by Top 10% Earners
This is 100% completely unsustainable as a society. Nearly 50% of all consumer spending now comes from the top 10% of earners. The bottom 80%? Their share keeps falling. This is why the economy can look strong in the data while millions of people...
Fertilizer Prices Surge 35%, Fueling Food Inflation
Fertilizer prices have moved up to their highest levels since October 2022, rising 35% YoY. About a third of global fertilizer supply passes through the Strait of Hormuz. This will drive food price inflation higher in the coming weeks/months. Video: https://t.co/pOPRl50mmA