Today's Global Economy Pulse
Australia's April CPI eases to 4.2% as core inflation hits 2024 high
Australia’s consumer price index slipped to a 4.2% annual rise in April, missing the 4.4% consensus as a temporary fuel excise cut trimmed transport costs. At the same time, the trimmed‑mean core inflation gauge rose to 3.4% year‑over‑year, the highest level since late‑2024, keeping pressure on the Reserve Bank of Australia’s inflation target.
Attacks on UAE Energy Assets Increase as War Broadens
Iran and its proxies have intensified drone and missile strikes on UAE energy infrastructure, targeting both downstream storage hubs and upstream production sites. A fire at Fujairah port halted oil loading and forced berths to close, while a drone hit the Shah gas field – the first direct attack on an upstream asset in the Emirates. The UAE reported intercepting over 300 ballistic missiles, 15 cruise missiles and more than 1,600 drones, far exceeding the numbers faced by neighboring Gulf states. The surge follows U.S. strikes on Iran’s Kharg Island, raising the risk of broader regional escalation.
Kuwait Returns To The Global Debt Market
Kuwait re‑entered the international sovereign market in September 2024, issuing an $11.25 billion eurobond – its first external debt sale since 2017. The issuance was enabled by a new debt law approved in March 2025 that authorises up to KD30 billion (≈$97 billion)...
War’s End Won’t Instantly Revive Commodity Output
I think the most dangerous thing that I see in markets currently is this assumption that, as soon as the war ends, commodity production will just switch back on again. It won’t. It can’t. Commodity production is not like a manufacturing...
USTR Investigates 60 Economies over Forced Labour Enforcement
The U.S. Trade Representative (USTR) has opened Section 301 investigations into forced‑labour practices in roughly 60 economies, including China, the EU, India, Japan and others. The probes will assess whether these countries’ measures are unreasonable, discriminatory, or burden U.S. commerce. USTR...
South Korea Caps Fuel Exports to Safeguard Supply
South Korea’s Ministry of Trade, Industry and Energy imposed mandatory caps on refined fuel exports, limiting shipments to 100 % of the monthly 2025 volumes and introducing wholesale price ceilings for gasoline, diesel and kerosene. The measures, effective 13 March, aim to...
Causal Evidence on Cost-of-Living Shocks: How the Energy Crisis Affected Energy Demand, Labour Supply, and Financial Strain
Researchers using Finnish administrative data examined how the 2022 European energy crisis affected household behavior. An eightfold jump in electricity prices revealed stark income‑based heterogeneity: high‑income families sharply reduced usage, while low‑income households cut consumption little and instead faced higher...
AI Turns Into Geopolitical Infrastructure, Shaping Global Alliances
AI is quickly becoming geopolitical infrastructure. An Nvidia-backed startup plans to spend billions on a data center in South Korea, as the U.S. increasingly uses AI chips and models to strengthen alliances and counter China. The AI race is no longer just...
RBA Hike Hints at Tighter Path for Single‑mandate Banks
As expected, the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) hiked interest rates by 25 basis points. Markets suspect this telegraphs what's on the cards for other single-mandate central banks, such as the Bank of England and the ECB. While a hike isn't...
Jorgovanka Tabaković: Industrial Policy Supporting Serbia's Long-Term Economic Growth
Governor Jorgovanka Tabaković used the 33rd Kopaonik Business Forum to underline Serbia’s industrial re‑industrialisation agenda while highlighting the National Bank’s macro‑economic results. She reported 2025 inflation at 2.7%, a stable dinar, record‑high foreign‑exchange and gold reserves, and a €48 bn export...
RBA Raises Rates to 4.1% as BOJ Stalls
The RBA hiked its benchmark rate to 4.1%. That is the first major central bank this week of a long list. If you want to pit it against the most prominent carry counterpart and contrast against rate of change, it...
Thailand Offers Iran Food for Plastic Pellets, Fertiliser
Thailand’s commerce ministry is negotiating a barter arrangement with Iran and other Middle‑East nations, offering processed food and raw materials in exchange for safe passage of Thai vessels carrying plastic pellets and fertiliser. Minister Suphajee Suthumpun warned that Thailand’s domestic...
Alberto Naudon: Chile's Economic Outlook
Alberto Naudón highlighted that Chile’s 2025 economy outperformed expectations, with non‑mining growth near 3% and gross fixed capital formation rising about 7%. Inflation accelerated early in the year but fell faster than projected, positioning headline inflation around 3.5% and core...
How Does the Iran War Affect China’s Energy Security?
China imports over 10% of its oil from Iran, most of it routed through the Strait of Hormuz, and the ongoing Iran‑U.S. conflict threatens to choke that corridor. While oil accounts for less than one‑fifth of China’s total energy consumption,...
Asian MTBE Arbitrage Flows Wrecked by Middle East Conflict
The episode examines how the Middle East conflict has upended global MTBE arbitrage, causing sharp price spikes and volatility across Asia, Europe, and the U.S. Asian producers face supply constraints as Middle‑East feedstocks dry up, while European demand for cheap...
Tired of Geopolitical Chaos? You Wouldn’t Be if You Were Prepared!
Geopolitical events are increasingly moving directly onto corporate profit and loss statements, reshaping input costs, working capital and supplier access. Most firms lack visibility beyond tier‑one suppliers, forcing them to scramble when crises emerge. Without a structured risk‑assessment framework, companies...
What the Supreme Court’s Tariff Ruling Means for Luxury Imports
The Supreme Court invalidated the Trump administration’s executive‑order tariffs on foreign goods, reaffirming that Congress alone controls commerce regulation. The ruling does not eliminate presidential tariff authority, as statutes like the Trade Act’s Section 301 and Section 122 still grant limited powers....
Russia Has Taken 12 Settlements in Ukraine
Russia’s military announced the capture of twelve settlements in Ukraine during the first two weeks of March, extending its foothold along both the eastern and southern fronts. The advances were highlighted by General Valery Gerasimov during a frontline visit. Kyiv’s...
Xi Pushes Belt and Road Initiative Port Alliance Amid Iran War, Panama Canal Dispute
Chinese President Xi Jinping announced plans to establish an international port alliance under the Belt and Road Initiative, aiming to link key maritime chokepoints such as the Strait of Hormuz and the Panama Canal. The proposal comes as China faces...
China-Linked Hormuz Traffic Plummets, VLCCs Shift to Red Sea
China-linked Hormuz transits retreat to shipping’s opaque fringes ▶️China-linked traffic through Hormuz has slowed sharply after recent attacks, with transits largely confined to an opaque bulker and one sanctioned VLCC ▶️Mainstream Chinese state-owned tanker fleets continue to stay out, citing safety, insurance...
Global Funds Look to Malaysia as Iran War Shakes up Asian Assets
Global funds are turning to Malaysia as the Iran‑Russia conflict rattles Asian markets. The country’s political stability, current‑account surplus and status as one of the few net oil exporters in the region have limited equity outflows, keeping the KLCI near‑flat...
Oil Futures in War
Kevin Hassett highlighted on CBS Face the Nation that oil futures are pricing a rapid decline in oil prices, even as spot gasoline prices surge due to current Strait disruptions. The forward curve suggests Brent will not revert to its pre‑war...
Trade FOMC: Align Timing, Levels, and Liquidity
FOMC is the biggest event this week. Interest rate decisions and Fed commentary can shift market direction, volatility, and momentum across Nasdaq and gold. Price often reacts aggressively around these releases, especially near key supply and demand levels. If you’re trading this week,...
The Great Fuel Scab Grab Begins
Australia’s Defence Minister Richard Marles has stopped short of dismissing fuel rationing as the Iran‑Israel conflict drags into its third week, stoking concerns over domestic supply. While officials claim there is no immediate shortage, global oil markets are already feeling pressure...
Fed Faces Tension Over Near‑Term Rate Cut Projections
The Fed might prefer to say nothing this week. But the projections force them to sketch out a path. Two former Fed presidents told me they'd want to avoid projecting near-term cuts in the current situation. Whether sitting officials do...
Sweden Seizes First Shadow Fleet Vessel, Signaling Global Crackdown
Sweden has seized its first shadow fleet vessel. They even went after a bulk carrier rather than a tanker. As more countries join in on the crackdown on Russia's shadow fleet, the dominoes are beginning to fall. Full Newsletter: https://t.co/pUmv12pCMy
Trump Seeks to Delay China Summit Due to Iran War
U.S. President Donald Trump announced he will push back the high‑profile summit with Chinese President Xi Jinping by roughly a month, moving it from the end of March to early May. The delay is attributed to the escalating war in...
Iran's VIP Checkpoint Makes Hormuz Transit Politically Controlled
So Iran has basically set up VIP access (or a separate customs checkpoint, if you prefer) for friendly vessels, per JPM “In practice, this creates a system in which the Strait is not formally closed, yet transit increasingly depends on political...
RBA Hike Ahead,
3 Developments: RBA hike, and mkt favors another one by mid-year. Trump-Xi meeting postponed by at least a month. Reason? War. Beijing tightens exports of fertilizer components. Oil firm but in yesterday's range. USD quiet. See https://t.co/QYsOxDPAlE...
Geopolitics and Inflation Now Top Tail Risks
"...geopolitics & inflation replace AI bubble as biggest tail risks." - BofA Global Fund Manager Survey
Record US Private Credit Defaults Drive Gold, Silver Rally
Rising U.S. private credit defaults hit record 9.2% in 2025, signaling credit stress & shadow banking risks. This erodes confidence in paper assets, investors flock to hard money with no counterparty risk. Bullish for gold & silver as safe-haven hedges. https://t.co/TcCYRkMkIZ
Rising Real Rates Threaten Gold’s Safe‑Haven Appeal
Have developed world interest rates hit their nadir - courtesy of energy prices? Perhaps one point of key implication is the possible pivot is the gold. Already eschewing its safe haven roots, a turn higher in real rates will be...
Iran Tensions Spike Oil Volatility, Brent‑WTI Spread Hits 3‑year High
The headlines around Iran and the Strait of Hormuz are flipping daily, which is keeping #oil volatility (realized and implied) elevated. Meanwhile, the Brent-WTI spread has jumped back near its highest in 3 years. https://t.co/h3S81SQWjn
New Analysis Finally Explains China’s Economy‑stock Market Split
The divergence between the performance of China’s economy and its stock market has been a topic for decades. This may finally explain it. https://t.co/Kuo5CiNr8e https://t.co/6CgHtlepQL
RBA Leads Rate Hikes, Others Remain Silent
All talk, no action from other central banks this week, except for the RBA which hiked rates to 4.10%, the highest among DM central banks. https://t.co/JKCGcBPwIG
Iran Conflict Threatens Global Chip Supply Chain
Iran war chokepoints begin to cast doubt on global chip supply https://t.co/oHuurB7rl9 via @debbywuintaipei @ckyrious https://t.co/EFKkB6ppV0
Reducing Hormuz Shipping Threat Demands Resources, Political Resolve
I write for the @Telegraph on the military challenges in re-opening the Strait of Hormuz. BLUF: the threat to shipping can be reduced but eliminating it is very resource intensive and can only be made permanent through politics: https://t.co/N9pN5Z9XmD
US Unveils Section 301 Trade Action Against 16 Nations
The US drops Section 301 trade bombshell on 16 countries | Article | Hinrich Foundation https://t.co/d4DGMQE6Zp
Fuel Price Hikes Act as Hidden Interest Rate Rise
Rising cost of fuel already an interest‑rate rise on households and businesses Higher Aus interest rates don’t fix inflation from rising oil prices, nor tax oil companies gaining a windfall. Who in Aus pays the price? Those who can least afford it https://t.co/6qbQujyqgg
Oil Slides as Iran Opens Hormuz, Markets Rally
Crude oil prices ticked down after Iran said the Strait of Hormuz is open to all but its "enemies", lifting stocks and pulling down the US dollar. Is the crisis ending? #oil #IranWar #stocks #dollar #macro #trading https://t.co/1OST27OxI9
Markets Shrug as China Disruptions Echo 2020
I was in Hong Kong in Feb 2020 and remember this being a very weird time. Investors had been worrying about the US-China trade war under Trump 1.0. Then China effectively shut down most of its economy and markets basically...
Iranian-Linked Tankers Still Dominate Hormuz Despite Attacks
India- and Pakistan-owned ships transit Strait of Hormuz ▶️Iranian-linked tonnage still dominates Hormuz transits ▶️Attacks on shipping are succeeding in halting crossings ▶️Eastbound transits prevail westbound journeys ▶️US ‘fine’ with Iranian tankers sailing through Hormuz to ‘supply’ the rest of the...
Supply Shocks Could Trigger Crises Bigger Than COVID
If a meaningful fraction of the analyses I’m seeing on major supply disruptions to global energy, food and pharmaceutical inputs is real, the humanitarian crises and government responses that are about to unfold will make COVID mayhem feel quaint.
S&P 500 Fell
The S&P 500 dropped only 5% during a Middle East war that shut down oil transit routes. A 10-15% correction was expected. 🔒 Members-Only https://t.co/7hi7kivw1h
Drone Strike Threatens Fertilizer Supply, Endangering Global Harvest
Drone strikes fuel truck at Dubai airport. What is happening is more than the Strait of Hormuz and oil. Supply and supply chains. A key product not moving is fertilizer as planting season is arriving. The impact on crop output...
Macro Monday Market Update with CryptoLandy
Market Update with Landy: Macro Monday 03/16/2026 Brought to you by @davidgokhshtein @gokhshtein and hosted by @CryptoLandy. https://t.co/hUnE1k6tKY
3,200 Ships Stuck West of Hormuz, Emergency Meeting Called
UN Shipping Agency Says 3,200 Ships Trapped West of Hormuz as Emergency Council Meeting Called https://t.co/JURA89iBEy
Allies Resist Trump's Push to Reopen Strait of Hormuz
US allies in Europe and Asia are in no hurry to bow to Trump's demand in helping reopen the Strait of Hormuz. TRUMP = A MASTERCLASS IN MAKING ENEMIES, EVEN WITH FOREIGN ENEMIES. https://t.co/er5H0ym7dv
Weak Currency and Deregulation Amplify Philippines' Oil Price Pain
Here’s why high oil prices are hitting places like the Philippines a lot harder than others (net energy importer, deregulated, very weak currency, relatively low income) 🔉on https://t.co/qMgihHYgGD
Brent Drops Sharply; Hormuz Ship Theory Seems Dubious
I am normally not a big fan of conspiracy theories to explain market phenomena. But #Brent futures slid from an intraday high of just over $106 to settle at $100.21 on Monday. The only “explanation” I can find is “because some...
Yen Slides Below Mid‑2024 Low; Intervention Won’t Halt Decline
The Yen has fallen below its previous low from mid-2024. This even though we're within two months of the NY Fed "rate check," which temporarily lifted it. As long as Japan believes in FX intervention, it's in denial on debt...