Today's Global Economy Pulse
Australia's April CPI eases to 4.2% as core inflation hits 2024 high
Australia’s consumer price index slipped to a 4.2% annual rise in April, missing the 4.4% consensus as a temporary fuel excise cut trimmed transport costs. At the same time, the trimmed‑mean core inflation gauge rose to 3.4% year‑over‑year, the highest level since late‑2024, keeping pressure on the Reserve Bank of Australia’s inflation target.
Trump Seeks to Delay China Summit Due to Iran War
U.S. President Donald Trump announced he will push back the high‑profile summit with Chinese President Xi Jinping by roughly a month, moving it from the end of March to early May. The delay is attributed to the escalating war in Iran, which Trump says requires his direct oversight. The original meeting, slated for March 31‑April 2, was intended to build on talks held in Paris and last October’s face‑to‑face. The postponement underscores how the Iran conflict is reshaping Washington’s foreign‑policy calendar.
Yen Slides Below Mid‑2024 Low; Intervention Won’t Halt Decline
The Yen has fallen below its previous low from mid-2024. This even though we're within two months of the NY Fed "rate check," which temporarily lifted it. As long as Japan believes in FX intervention, it's in denial on debt...
Iran War Has Global Economy On Verge Of Complete Meltdown
The Iran‑Israel war has reignited fears of a major disruption to oil flows through the Strait of Hormuz, sending shockwaves through global markets. Gold futures remain near $5,013 per ounce while silver hovers around $81, reflecting heightened volatility but limited...
A Last Gasp for Chinese Growth
China’s January‑February 2026 data showed a surprising rebound, with industrial production climbing to 6.3% year‑on‑year, up from 5.2% in December, driven by stronger‑than‑expected exports. Fixed‑asset investment also turned positive, moving from a 13% contraction in December to a 1.8% expansion....
South Korea and Japan Bear Brunt of Global Stock Sell-Offs Amid Oil Shock
South Korea and Japan have led global equity sell‑offs after the US‑Israel‑Iran conflict drove oil prices above $100 a barrel. The Kospi plunged 12% and the Nikkei slid nearly 9% since February 28, outpacing declines in Europe and the United States....
Iran’s Victory Could Collapse Petrodollar, End US Era
If Iran wins, it's the end of five eras. 1991-2026: the unipolar era 1974-2026: the petrodollar era 1945-2026: the postwar era 1776-2026: the union era 1492-2026: the Western era Specifically, the end of the petrodollar (1974) would also be the end of the unipolar moment (1991)...
Rising Income, Oil, Deficits Make Rate Cuts Tough
Disposable personal income is rising. Oil price is rising. Budget deficits are rising. Going to be very hard to cut rates
Redfin Economists’ Weekly Take: Rates Will Jump Around As Markets Weigh Iran War and Fed Outlook
Redfin economists expect mortgage rates to keep oscillating as the Iran‑Israel conflict pushes energy prices higher and markets brace for the Federal Reserve’s second‑to‑last FOMC meeting this week. Mortgage rates have climbed from roughly 6.0% to 6.36%, while the ten‑year...
The $100 Trillion Energy Crisis Nobody Saw Coming
The Strait of Hormuz shut completely after Iran’s retaliation, halting all commercial traffic and stranding nearly a fifth of the global tanker fleet. While crude oil found temporary relief through Saudi and UAE pipelines and strategic reserves, other energy streams—LNG,...
How Governments Globally Are Shielding Consumers From War Fuel Shocks
Governments across Asia and Europe are rolling out fuel subsidies, price caps, and emergency stock releases to blunt the surge in energy and food costs triggered by the US‑Israeli war on Iran. The conflict has cut roughly one‑fifth of global...
The Iran War Is Roiling Commodities Far Beyond Oil
Since the third Gulf war erupted three weeks ago, the closure of the Strait of Hormuz has immobilized roughly 10‑15 % of global oil supply, pushing Brent crude above $106 a barrel. President Donald Trump has ordered the largest-ever strategic reserve...
Middle East Crashes Into Recession
The Gulf region is sliding into recession as refined fuel prices surge amid tightening global energy markets. Distillates such as diesel and jet fuel have risen far faster than crude, with some products nearly tripling in cost. The sharp price...
AIS‑active Ships Signal Genuine Reopening Underway
The most important chart right now. Note that this only tracks ships with their AIS (Automated Identification System) turned on, think the GPS on your phone or in your car. More ships are going through, but they turn off their AIS. But once...
Moody’s Says a Recession Will Be Hard to Avoid if Oil Prices Stay Elevated for Even a Few More Weeks
Moody’s chief economist Mark Zandi warned that a sustained oil‑price spike—driven by the Iran conflict and a closed Strait of Hormuz—could push the U.S. into a recession. Moody’s machine‑learning recession model, which previously indicated a 49% chance, is expected to...
RBA Ready to Destroy Itself?
The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) is under market pressure to increase interest rates as inflation remains sticky. The author argues the RBA should refrain from a hike, citing a historical parallel where the European Central Bank raised rates in...
Amanpour Interview: Iran, Oil
The link to this afternoon’s conversation with Christiane Amanpour. Thanks so much, Christiane, for having me on your show. https://www.cnn.com/2026/03/16/tv/video/amanpour-el-erian-trump-iran-hormuz-economy #economy @cnn #middleeastwar #oil #inflation #growth @pbs @camanpour
Navarro's Iran “Terror Premium” Claim Sparks Expert Backlash
Energi Media Expert Incurs Wrath of White House Trump trade advisor Peter Navarro claims Iran created a "terror premium" of $5-$15/b for decades. Nonsense, said Ed Hirs, it doesn't exist. Then the sparks flew. #trumptariffchaos #uspoli #cdnpoli https://youtu.be/Fn3qWrIpsOI
Pulse Sales to Middle East Markets Are ‘Frozen’
Canadian pulse exporters say sales to the Middle East have effectively frozen due to the Iran‑related conflict. Shipping lines are diverting cargo, imposing surcharges up to $2,000 per container and rerouting fees, making deliveries unsafe and uneconomical. The MENA region,...
Germany Declares Hormuz Conflict Not Its War
The Chancellor of Germany has responded to President Trump’s request for help in opening the Strait of Hormuz… In simple English he said: “That war is not our war and we won’t be involved.” Germany is the LARGEST & RICHEST...
Global Economic Uncertainty Now Nearly Double Pandemic Levels
Global economic uncertainty is nearly twice as high now as it was during the pandemic.
Bill Kristol: End the War
In this episode, host Tim Miller and editor‑at‑large Bill Kristol discuss the escalating conflict in Iran and its broader geopolitical fallout. Kristol argues that the war has fractured U.S. alliances, especially with Europe, as Trump’s unilateral actions left allies feeling...
War‑driven Inflation Fuels Liquidity‑to‑solvency Crises
For those bullish wars, don't forget: WARS ARE INFLATIONARY which can accelerate economic deterioration that is already in motion. Now pit INFLATION against this backdrop: liquidity versus solvency.👇 Liquidity crisis can quickly turn to solvency crisis. Fed can step in during liquidity episodes, Fed...
Iran and U.S. Have Been in Direct Contact in Recent Days, Sources Say
U.S. envoy Steve Witkoff reactivated a direct texting channel with Iran’s foreign minister Abbas Araghchi amid the two‑week war. The exchange, focused on ending hostilities, marks the first known direct contact between the parties since the conflict began. Iran’s foreign...
Trans-Pacific Contract Talks Accelerating After Walmart Signs
Walmart has finalized its 2026‑27 trans‑Pacific shipping contracts with six major carriers, prompting container lines to resume stalled negotiations. The war in the Middle East had paused talks, but carriers now urge importers to lock in space allocations before the...
Jobs Stagnant Since Sep 2024, Business Apps Surge
No New Jobs have been created since September 2024 but new business applications have been surging
Miran’s Next Vote
Polymarket now prices a 98% chance that Fed governor Stephen Miran will dissent from the upcoming Federal Reserve decision, up from 89.1% after the Iran war began. The odds surge highlights heightened market focus on any deviation from the committee’s...
OPEC+ Shutdown Nears 8.5 MMbpd Amid Iran Conflict
🚨 NEW POST 🚨 Latest OPEC+ production data heading into the Iran War, as well as estimates of how much production has already been shut in across the Gulf By my tally we're currently sitting at ~8.5 MMbpd confirmed shut it, with...
Fed's Treasury Holdings Surge, Echoing Past Funding Crises
Preparation for liquidity crisis to minimize repo/money market volatility that are threatening credit spreads due to oil spike and growth contraction from Trump trapping US-Israel War on Iran. #HYOAS “The Fed now holds about $358B in Treasury bills. That’s higher than the...
Post-Covid Inflation Heavily Influenced by Global Factors
Global consumer‑price inflation peaked in 2022‑23, ranging from 3 % in Switzerland to 85 % in Turkey. The surge was traced to lingering supply‑chain bottlenecks after pandemic restrictions lifted, which outpaced the gradual return of supply. Since then most economies have entered...
Seizing Kharg Island Would Checkmate Iran’s Oil Revenue
Taking Kharg Island (variety of ways) "kind of checkmate" - General (ret) Jack Keane, Chairman @TheStudyofWar , on @FoxNews "The Straits of Hormuz eventually will be a problem that will be solved, but not immediately. Kharg Island; Kharg Island,...
Stable BDI Masks Looming Freight Spike From Ship Shortage
The long-term history of the Baltic Dry Index (BDI), the benchmark measure of global dry bulk freight rates. It tracks what it costs to ship commodities like: * Iron ore * Coal * Grain * Bauxite * Steel inputs Because these commodities sit at the very beginning...
Reconstructing Gaza Starts with Giving Palestinians Financial Agency
The article argues that any credible reconstruction of Gaza must first secure financial agency for Palestinians, who currently rely on Israeli banks and indemnity waivers to access cash and digital payments. Recent moves by Israel’s finance ministry threaten to cancel...
Trump Claims U.S. Requested Delay of Xi Summit
Trump Says U.S. Has Asked to Delay Summit With China’s Xi—President Trump said the U.S. had asked to delay a summit with Chinese leader Xi Jinping that had been expected to begin later this month in Beijing. @KThomasDC https://t.co/RIlqe39hUE
Drones Strike Majnoon Field, Iraq Faces Escalating Threat
Lots of attention on the GCC - but as drones hit the Majnoon field, what does the war mean for Iraq? A very dangerous time ahead https://t.co/nO2Yr3HQde @ColumbiaUEnergy
Hassett on the Economic Impact of the US-Israel-Iran War
Kevin Hassett told CBS’s Face the Nation that the US economy will not be harmed by the US‑Israel‑Iran conflict, citing abundant domestic oil production and a steep decline in futures‑based oil prices. He argued the temporary 20% disruption to global...
Trump’s Iran Gambit Ignites a Raging, Unintended Inferno
My view of Trump's grasp of reality: "Trump foolishly thought he was going to easily put out a little brush fire in Iran. Instead, he poked a stick into a hornet's nest. It's fueled a raging inferno that's generating massive collateral...
US‑China Trade Board Unprecedented; Washington Must Prepare
A new US-China “Board of Trade”? The world has never before seen an attempt to manage trade at this scale. If the US government wants to do this seriously, it really has to do its homework. by @AnaSwanson https://t.co/ooAO5hs8Jv
LABJ Stock Index: March 16
A $10 jump in oil prices, driven by geopolitical risk, has jolted global equities but left U.S. stocks surprisingly resilient. The United States, now a net oil exporter with most imports from Canada and Mexico, experiences a lagged impact on...
China Curbs Fertilizer Exports, Iran War Spikes Global Prices
"China is tightening its curbs on fertilizer exports as the war in Iran disrupts trade of key crop nutrients, driving up prices globally." https://t.co/X35yEEwYZH
Cuba Opens Doors for Diaspora Investment to Boost Economy
#Cuba is moving to allow more investment from Cubans living abroad as part of a larger effort to bolster the state-dominated economy amid increased pressure from the US. https://t.co/uhnTdxoWpo
Bessent Mirrors 1992 BOE: Fighting USD Collapse Over Oil
Bessent now finds himself in the position of the Bank of England in 1992 when Soros, Druckenmiller, & Bessent "broke the BOE": Trying to prevent the USD from collapsing v. oil with a finite amount of oil reserves as markets &...
Venezuela's Oil Gains From Hormuz Shutdown, Spiking Prices
Well that’s one way to Make Venezuela’s Oil Great Again…by shutting traffic in the Strait of Hormuz and pushing oil prices into the $90s and $100s https://t.co/0dXdhaPaQ6
India Vulnerable to Soaring Oil Prices From US‑Israel Conflict
My take on the effect of the US-Israel war on India: "It will hit India particularly hard if the price of oil hits $120 / barrel or $200 / barrel because India is the third largest oil importer in the world."...
Iran's First Direct Strike on Oil/Gas Field
I believe this is the first sucessull Iranian attack against an **oil / gas field** since the war started (previous strikes against oil facilities involved refineries, terminals, and storage tanks). (Althought the tweet calls it an oil field, it likely...
US and Global Tax Reforms Boost Irish Corporate Tax Revenue
On the eve of St. Paddy's day I raise a glass to my Irish friends -- offer a toast their international tax wizardry. Every international tax initiative, and every US tax reform, somehow ends up increasing the Irish corporate tax...
Iran Controls Key Chokepoint, US Planners Overlooked It
It is clear that Iran is in control of one of the world's greatest choke points. Apparently, the US military planners failed to see what is CLEAR AS A NOSE ON YOUR FACE. https://t.co/mGgjrf1ZGW
EU Savings Union Could Launch This Year, Says Harris
EU savings union can be ready this year, Ireland’s Harris says https://t.co/ncveXVZHvW via @jenniduggan @livfletcher_ https://t.co/9gb3pbnbBC
Rare Unsanctioned Russian LNG Heads to Southeast Asia
This is a rare Russian LNG shipment going through the Red Sea to Southeast Asia. Why is it rare? Because neither the LNG nor the carrier is sanctioned, and most likely it is not going to China. All previous...
Oil Spike Fuels Inflation, Keeps Fed From Cutting
The US-Iran conflict pushed oil past $100 a barrel. This is going to keep inflation elevated. Elevated inflation stops the Fed from cutting, which isn’t good for risk assets. I don’t see a super cycle this year only lower lows as stated many...
LNG Shutdown Threatens 1.8 B in Three Poorest Nations
I’ll be presenting this slide during a speech tomorrow to the Texas Agricultural Cooperative Council. Three of the world’s poorest countries — combined population: 1.8B people — will be hammered by the shutdown of LNG shipments through the Strait of...