Today's Global Economy Pulse
Australia's April CPI eases to 4.2% as core inflation hits 2024 high
Australia’s consumer price index slipped to a 4.2% annual rise in April, missing the 4.4% consensus as a temporary fuel excise cut trimmed transport costs. At the same time, the trimmed‑mean core inflation gauge rose to 3.4% year‑over‑year, the highest level since late‑2024, keeping pressure on the Reserve Bank of Australia’s inflation target.
Rising Crude Prices May Push US Towards Recession, Warns Moody's Chief Economist Mark Zandi
Moody's chief economist Mark Zandi warned that a 49% chance of a U.S. recession looms within the next year as crude oil prices surge amid the U.S.-Iran conflict. Brent crude jumped nearly 40% in March, reaching $119.50 per barrel, while the U.S. economy grew at a sluggish 0.7% annualized rate in Q4, its weakest performance since early 2025. Zandi’s machine‑learning indicator flags oil price spikes as a key recession trigger, echoing patterns seen in every post‑World War II downturn except the pandemic. Continued price pressure could tip the economy into contraction.
German Investor Confidence Crashes Amid Iran War
Hello from Germany, where investor confidence plummets on the Iran war. An expectations index by the ZEW institute decreased to -0.5 in March from 58.3 in Feb. That’s below all estimates in a Bloomberg survey, which had foreseen a reading...
Markets Ignore FOMC; Dot Plot and Language Drive Moves
The FOMC meets this week but no one's paying attention. Markets are focused on geopolitics, not rate decisions. Here's what actually matters: the dot plot, the statement language, and the three scenarios that could move markets.
Takeaways From China’s National People’s Congress Meeting
China’s 2024 Two Sessions highlighted a paradoxical policy mix as Beijing seeks to revive a slowing economy. Leaders stressed boosting domestic consumption while simultaneously ramping up state‑led investment in advanced manufacturing and strategic technologies. The 15th Five‑Year Plan reinforced this...
Fed Meeting’s Dot Plot Will Steer Markets This Summer
The Fed starts its most consequential meeting of the year today. Oil is above $100. The S&P 500 clings to its 200-day moving average. Wednesday's dot plot will reveal whether any rate cuts survive in 2026. The answer could set...
Beijing’s Real Problem With Trump’s China Summit Delay
President Donald Trump hinted at delaying his state visit to Beijing unless China helped reopen the Strait of Hormuz, prompting a brief media frenzy. Beijing’s foreign ministry responded calmly, accepting the postponement without framing it as U.S. pressure and emphasizing...
USITC Advances 4 Trade Cases with Implications for Packaging
The U.S. International Trade Commission has advanced four packaging‑related trade cases this year, adding to a December antidumping ruling on thermo‑formed molded‑fiber products from China and Vietnam. The new investigations target polypropylene corrugated boxes from China, PET film from China,...
The Tariff Mirage: Why Steel Prices Are Higher than They Should Be
U.S. steel prices remain elevated because tariff uncertainty adds a risk premium that outpaces weak demand and softening industrial indicators. Reduced imports have pushed buyers toward higher‑cost domestic mills, providing short‑term price support despite limited capacity. Ongoing legal challenges to...
Brazil Steps Up Bond Market Intervention as Oil Upends Rates
Brazil's National Treasury announced an expanded bond market intervention after a sharp rise in oil prices lifted inflation expectations and pushed sovereign yields upward. The authority increased direct purchases and offered additional liquidity to stabilize benchmark rates and limit volatility....
Navigating Demographic Headwinds in Croatia
Croatia has posted strong, resilient GDP growth over the past decade, outpacing OECD and euro‑area averages. However, a rapidly shrinking and ageing population threatens that momentum, with the working‑age cohort projected to fall 25% between 2024 and 2050. OECD modelling...
Tony Elumelu to Spearhead Macron's New France-Africa Initiative
French President Emmanuel Macron has appointed Nigerian billionaire Tony Elumelu to head the newly created Africa‑France Impact Coalition, a forum designed to deepen private‑sector collaboration between France and Africa. The coalition will be highlighted at the France‑Africa summit in Nairobi...
Gold, Silver Rates Today: Comex Gold Gains $47/Oz; Silver Rallies $2 as US Dollar Eases From 10-Month High
Gold rose to $5,049 per ounce and silver to $82.76 per ounce on 17 March as the U.S. dollar eased from a 10‑month high. The rally was fueled by the weaker dollar, central‑bank meeting anticipation, and a concurrent jump in crude‑oil...
Iran War Shatters Bullish Wall Street Consensus
The outbreak of war in Iran has shattered the previously bullish consensus on Wall Street, prompting professional money managers to slash global growth forecasts and shift heavily into cash. Cash allocations among hedge funds, pension funds and sovereign wealth funds...
Brian Dooley to Lead New Ports of Indiana International Trade Office
Ports of Indiana announced the launch of its first overseas trade office in Ireland, appointing maritime veteran Brian Dooley to lead the European Trade Office based in Cork and Kildare. The office aims to develop a direct Europe‑Indiana container service...
Robertson's Garretty Says War Has Put 'Recession' Back Into Conversation
In this episode of Money Life, chief economist Jeanette Garrity warns that the war in Iran has revived recession and bubble concerns, estimating a 30‑35% chance of a recession. Technical analyst Adam Grimes argues that current market volatility—especially in stocks...
China, Russia Discuss Boosting Transport Links as Middle East Conflict Disrupts Shipping
Amid heightened Middle East conflict disrupting traditional maritime corridors, China and Russia convened the inaugural China‑Russia Logistics Business Forum in Moscow to explore deeper logistics cooperation. The dialogue emphasized expanding the Arctic Northern Sea Route, leveraging ports such as Arkhangelsk...
The Indonesia-US Agreement: A ‘Reciprocal’ Trade Deal That Isn’t
The Indonesia‑U.S. Agreement on Reciprocal Trade (ART), signed in February 2026, obliges Indonesia to eliminate tariffs on 99 percent of American goods, purchase billions in U.S. energy and aircraft, and surrender digital‑tax authority, while the United States faces a 19 percent tariff on...
Uganda: Copper Is the New Oil, but Will Uganda Be Norway or Nigeria?
Global demand for copper and other transition metals is set to triple by 2030, prompting a scramble for new sources. Uganda’s dormant Kilembe copper mine and newly identified mineral belts could supply millions of tonnes of copper and rare‑earth elements....
Traders Bet Fed Dovish; Stocks Rise, Dollar Falls
🚨 TRADERS JUST TIPPED THEIR HAND BEFORE FED The market is already telling us what to expect from the Fed - and smart traders are paying attention. Stocks are rallying and the dollar is pulling back ahead of Wednesday's Fed decision. That's...
Trump’s Missteps Reveal Diplomacy’s Critical Role
Trumps learns the hard way the importance of diplomacy and soft power… GeopoliticalGuy | Substack https://bit.ly/4rAmIyw #Geopolitics #Iran #NATO #Hormuz #Trump
Canada Initiates Safeguard Inquiry Into Imports of Canned and Frozen Vegetables, Considers Future Investigation Into Wood Products
Canada’s finance ministry has instructed the Canadian International Trade Tribunal (CITT) to launch a safeguard inquiry into imports of certain canned and frozen vegetables, covering tariff headings 7.10 and 20.05. The tribunal has 180 days, with a recommendation due by...
India’s Tea Imports Doubled in 2024-25
India’s tea imports surged to 50.14 million kg in fiscal 2024‑25, exactly twice the 25.21 million kg recorded in 2023‑24. The first ten months of 2025‑26 already show 33.55 million kg imported, underscoring a sustained upward trend. In response, the Tea Board issued strict labeling and...
Import Tariffs: Turning Up the Heat on Tariff Evasion
The U.S. is shifting trade enforcement toward economic security, targeting import‑tariff evasion with a new Trade Fraud Task Force and expanded DOJ whistleblower incentives. In 2025 CBP collected a record $200 billion in tariffs, prompting $2 million funding for the task force...
Indian Textile and Apparel Exports See Marginal Decrease in April ’25-February ’26
Indian textile exports fell 2.1% YoY to $18.36 bn in April ’25‑February ’26, while apparel exports edged up 0.5% to $14.53 bn. Combined, the sector’s total exports slipped 1% to $32.89 bn versus the previous year. February 2026 showed a sharper apparel decline...
India to Defer US Trade Pact Signing Pending New Tariff Framework, Says Commerce Secretary
India’s Commerce Secretary Rajesh Agrawal announced that the country will postpone signing the bilateral trade agreement with the United States until Washington finalizes a revised tariff framework. The delay follows a U.S. Supreme Court decision that invalidated several Trump-era tariff...
Full Rate Cut Postponed Until March 2027.
"While markets previously anticipated a cut as early as this July and two more by next spring, the current trajectory has moved aggressively, with a full cut now not priced in until March 2027." -S&P Global Vörös
China Funds 9 Border Posts for Tajikistan as Frontier Violence Escalates
China has pledged a non‑repayable $61 million grant to build nine border posts along Tajikistan’s Afghan frontier, covering 17,109 sq m of observation posts and headquarters. The project follows a series of lethal attacks on Chinese workers in late 2025, which heightened Beijing’s security...
Fed Hikes Driven by Macro Policy, Not Oil Spikes
In the two oil shocks of the 70's the Fed tightened due to the broad inflationary impact of leaving the gold standard and Bretton woods. Oil was a symptom not a cause of inflation In 90 the Fed paused cuts...
Iran’s Hormuz Stranglehold Upends Markets and Geopolitics
Iran’s renewed aggression in the Strait of Hormuz triggered a sharp rebound in Brent crude, pushing prices above $103 a barrel, and sent U.S. diesel to a multi‑year high of $5 per gallon. Tehran’s threats to halt oil shipments through...
Summit Delay Minor; IEEPA Tariff Relief Drives Trade Gains
“Trump has asked to postpone the scheduled summit with China’s President Xi. The delay is unlikely to be too economically significant. Trade talks are continuing, and China’s export numbers remain robust. A trade deal would reduce the tariff burden on...
LA Rebounds as Post‑CNY Port Volumes Surge
LA is coming back strong from weak conditions earlier this year. As port volumes return from Chinese New Year, we could see a resurgence of momentum.
Oil Shock: Panel Urges Finance Ministry to Craft Strategic Energy Mitigation Framework
India’s parliamentary panel urged the Department of Economic Affairs to develop a strategic energy mitigation framework to shield the economy from oil price volatility. The report highlighted the need for a coordinated national strategy on critical minerals, calling for diversified...
China‑US Summit Delayed, Soy Market Hopes Stall
🇺🇸🇨🇳Trump says they are "resetting" the meeting with China that was supposed to occur March 31-April 2. That's now been pushed 5-6 weeks out, putting it around April 21 - 28. Ag markets had been hoping the meeting would result in more...
New Lens on Marginal Consumer Spending Hits Spot‑On
👇This is the way (to look at marginal consumer spending) spot on, again @EPBResearch !
The Daily Feather — Shockers
The Daily Feather’s new post spotlights the oddball nicknames of U.S. colleges, zeroing in on Wichita State University’s “Shockers.” It traces the Shockers moniker to early 20th‑century wheat‑harvesting students who earned a reputation for “shocking” the grain. The article pairs...
Fed's Inflation View to Steer Near‑term Rate Path
Despite the recent steepening of the back-end, hard to fade and set up for next week's auctions with FOMC tomorrow. Fed clarification on how they view the recent crude inflation will have a strong impact on the...
Live: Economic Fallout of Middle East Conflict
Coming up in 1 hour LIVE @TheNationalNews Discussion of economic impact of Mideast warfare With @ManusCranny https://t.co/1QprixfNpq
Refinancing Wall: An Ever-Present Market Reality
Is there ever NOT a "refinancing wall"? Feel like I've been seeing charts like that for 20 years...
Iran Keeps Shipping Oil, China Still Receives It
PHOTO(S) OF THE DAY: China is still getting (some of) its oil — and Iran its getting (some of) its money. Three weeks into the war, Iran continues loading oil supertankers from Kharg Island. (No damage visible at this resolution) Photo @CopernicusEU...
Rising Tanker Traffic Could Shrink Brent's War‑driven Risk Premium
Great piece by @MelissaLawford in @Telegraph on tanker traffic through the Strait of Hormuz and what's going on in global markets. Brent is up 42% from before the war, a big risk premium. As oil tanker traffic picks up, this...
Private Credit Defaults Surge to 9.2%, Outpacing 2008
Private credit default rate just hit 9.2%. That's higher than 2008 bank loan peaks. $1.8 trillion in assets, $100B in secondary liquidity. 18:1 mismatch. When exits close, panic starts. https://t.co/PTz3djlLMl
EU's Kallas Rejects Belgium's Push to Normalize Moscow Ties
BRUSSELS, March 17 (Reuters) - European Union foreign policy chief Kaja Kallas pushed back on Tuesday against a call by Belgian Prime Minister Bart De Wever to normalise relations with Moscow and regain access to cheap Russian energy.
Germany Declines Hormuz Escort; High Oil Prices Reflect Policy
Germany just refused to join the Hormuz escort coalition. "We lack the mandate." $100+ oil isn't a blip. It's a policy choice the West keeps making by not making one. $WTI https://t.co/hftmXwpdXG
Global LNG Market Visualized in New Interactive Map
Kate Mackenzie and Tim Sahay at Phenomenal World posted this nice map of the global LNG market. It's featured in today's Chartbook Top Links: https://t.co/hQaQMt4GjH
China’s Fuel Ban Strains Regional Supply, Sparks Contract Disputes
China's fuel export ban last week is already rippling through the region. Bangladesh, which relies on Chinese diesel and jet fuel, has come out and asked Beijing to honour its contracts. Australia imported a third of its jet fuel from China...
Trump Pivots to Dealmaking, Seeks Delayed US‑China Summit
Trump Shifts U.S.-China Strategy on Trade to Dealmaking—Plus, President Trump has asked Beijing to delay his summit with Xi and some have signaled renewed openness to bilateral investment @Lingling_Wei https://t.co/XagDzu9g7G https://t.co/XagDzu9g7G
Pakistan Faces LNG Shortage Within a Month
Pakistan’s LNG supply at risk of running out in less than a month 🇵🇰 🚢 Officials warn that there may not be enough gas to meet power needs after April 14 Pakistan imports 99% of its LNG from Qatar. But supplies...
Empires Crumble when Power Replaces Ideology
“When a hegemon abandons the legitimating ideas that built its empire and operates on naked power alone, it has already begun to fall.” @Noneotherthanwe
Iran Conflict Spikes Fertilizer Costs, Deepening Farmers' Woes
"Minnesota corn farmers withstood a trade war. The war in Iran is the next cost challenge. The conflict is increasing the cost of an essential fertilizer. With corn prices already down, it’s another financial headache for farmers." https://t.co/NT2pX8mfN9
Fed Shouldn't React to Oil Supply Shocks
Should the Fed hike due to a supply shock in oil? No. Should the Fed cut due to oil supply shock causing weaker real growth. Also no. Get a grip pundits.