Today's Global Economy Pulse
Australia's April CPI eases to 4.2% as core inflation hits 2024 high
Australia’s consumer price index slipped to a 4.2% annual rise in April, missing the 4.4% consensus as a temporary fuel excise cut trimmed transport costs. At the same time, the trimmed‑mean core inflation gauge rose to 3.4% year‑over‑year, the highest level since late‑2024, keeping pressure on the Reserve Bank of Australia’s inflation target.
Double-Edged Swords: How Military Purges Shape Authoritarian Appetite for War
China’s defense ministry announced the investigation of top general Zhang Youxia, marking the latest in a wave that has seen Xi Jinping remove five of six Central Military Commission generals since 2022. The article argues that military purges create a paradox for authoritarian regimes: they strip elite checks on leaders, potentially encouraging war, while simultaneously degrading the armed forces’ combat effectiveness, which can deter conflict. Both mechanisms are at play in China, where purges weaken elite punishment power yet erode the PLA’s operational depth. U.S. policymakers are urged to weigh these opposing forces when shaping strategy toward Beijing.
FOMC Cheat Code: Trade, Spot Hawk/Dove, Decode Powell
FOMC CHEAT CODE. Covering : - How to trade FOMC - How to spot a hawk or dove in FOMC - How to breakdown Powell's words in FOMC - How to know if FOMC is bullish or bearish See the comments to watch.
Germany's New Debt Fuels Handouts, Not Investment
Good Morning from Germany, where newly issued debt has so far not been used for investment, but rather to finance election giveaways & plug budget holes – once again proving the laws of political economy. Acc to Ifo, public borrowing...
Bailing Out Russia for “Peace” Is a Losing Proposition
In February 2026 Russia unveiled the “Dmitriev package,” a $14 trillion economic reintegration proposal that promises sanctions relief, Western market access and joint energy ventures. The article argues the plan is unrealistic and overlooks Russia’s war‑driven economy, where defense and security...
75% of World Bleeds $1
One has to be out of their mind to buy a petrol car - or bus, or scooter, or heater - today if they're even remotely cognizant of the reality around them ➡️New @EmberClimate report shows 75% of the world is...
China’s Multibillion-Dollar Minerals Investment Lifts Foreign Economies: Report
Since 2023, China has poured more than $120 billion into overseas mining and mineral‑processing projects, covering lithium, rare‑earth metals and battery components. The Australian think‑tank Climate Energy Finance says the outflow fuels clean‑energy deployment in developing economies, supplying inputs for solar,...
European Structured Finance and the Middle East War: Resilient So Far but Risks Rising
Despite the Middle East war, European securitisation issuance has remained remarkably active, excluding BSL CLOs. The conflict has nearly halted corporate lending markets, yet consumer‑focused asset classes show no systemic disruption. Pricing discipline has tightened and execution windows are more...
Qatar Can Keep Goods Flowing Amid Tensions, Customs Chief Says
Qatar’s customs chief assures that supply chains remain secure despite regional tensions, citing strategic reserves, digital customs systems, and multiple transport routes. The Al Nadeeb electronic platform and recent upgrades have accelerated clearance and increased transparency. Coordination with the GCC Customs...
Fastmarkets Set to Launch New Rare Earth Spot Prices to Capture Global Trade Outside China
Fastmarkets will introduce three new global spot prices for dysprosium oxide 99.5%, terbium oxide 99.99% and ferro‑dysprosium 80% on March 19. The move responds to Chinese export controls and dwindling non‑Chinese supply, which have forced Japan and other magnet‑dependent economies...
Why Vietnam Is the World's Most Exciting Emerging Market
In this episode, Chris Sheldt‑Hoheaton talks with Dominic Scriven, founder and chair of Dragon Capital, about Vietnam’s evolution from a war‑torn, isolated economy to the region’s most dynamic emerging market. Scriven recounts his personal journey—from learning Vietnamese in Hanoi to...
Delayed US-China Summit Raises Stakes for Takaichi Ahead of White House Visit
US President Donald Trump’s scheduled summit with Japanese Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi was postponed, pushing back the pre‑China coordination meeting ahead of Trump’s Beijing visit. Analysts link the delay to the escalating Iran‑Israel conflict and the newly announced Chinese meeting...
Israeli Strike Hits Central Beirut After Evacuation Warning
An Israeli airstrike hit Beirut’s central Bachoura neighbourhood on March 18 after the military warned residents to evacuate the building. The strike was part of a broader wave of attacks across Lebanon targeting Hezbollah, following the militant group’s March 2 assault on...
Market View: Drone Warfare - How AI and War Are Coming Together? Oil Shockwaves & Big Tech’s Strategic Reset
The episode examines how AI is reshaping modern warfare, spotlighting startups like Swarmer, which offers AI‑driven drone swarm software, and Gecko Robotics, which supplies wall‑climbing robots for US Navy ship maintenance. It discusses the surge in defense investment amid global...
FOMC Chaos: 5‑Year Inflation‑Killing Plan Revealed
The FOMC is a mess. I have been writing about the original sin, the false flag of 2019, and a workable plan to kill inflation for 5 years. Here is Sundays client only DSR. I'm making it...
Goldman Sees Possible US Export Bans, Targeting Refined Oil
Goldman > While not our base case, we would not rule out US export restrictions. If implemented, they appear more likely for refined products than for crude oil.
Fed Set to Hold as Deutsche Bank Flags Geopolitics Clouding Outlook
Deutsche Bank expects the Federal Reserve to keep its policy rate unchanged at the March 2024 meeting, with only modest tweaks to the post‑meeting statement. The bank says the Fed will downplay volatile payroll data and instead spotlight rising geopolitical...
Export Bans Threaten Philippines' Fuel and Food Security
Products matter as we don’t consume crude but the by products. The Philippines is vulnerable to export bans of not just diesel and gas but also eventually food should the conflict endures.
Heating Oil Prices Near $4, Spiking From Middle East Tensions
If you heat with oil you are exposed to sky-high heating oil prices. US heating oil futures are near $4 per gallon and prices have almost doubled since February, driven by escalating disruption linked to the war in Iran and...
India's Digital Economy to Account for 20% of GDP by 2030, Says MeitY Secy S Krishnan
India’s digital economy, currently contributing about 13 % of GDP, is projected to rise to nearly 20 % by 2030, growing at roughly twice the pace of the broader economy. The surge is driven by rapid adoption of artificial intelligence and expanding...
Rosatom Shifts Hafnium Exports From Europe to Asia
MOSCOW, March 17 (Reuters) - Russia's state nuclear company Rosatom, the country's sole producer of hafnium used in high-tech industries, said on Tuesday it had redirected its supplies of the metal from European to Asian markets.
China’s Strong Start Hides Uneven Growth Amid External Risks
Chinese Economy’s Bright Start Masks Uneven Growth as External Risks Loom—Data released showed industrial production rebounded on surging exports https://t.co/ccsgwcicJL https://t.co/ccsgwcicJL
World Bank Forecasts Global Commodity Prices to Plunge to Six‑Year Low in 2026 Amid Oil Glut
The World Bank’s March 2026 Commodity Markets Outlook projects that global commodity prices will fall 7% in 2026, reaching their lowest level since the 2020 pandemic lockdowns. The forecast, released mid‑March 2026, cites a massive oil glut of about 1.2 million...
Economic Warfare Shifts Pain: $150 vs $100
FT says the economy is worse off because of economic warfare @TheMichaelEvery says that misses the point It’s not about prices on screens anymore. It’s about who pays $150 and who pays $100. Same shock. Different pain. That’s the strategy. https://t.co/sGABAdh3EV #Oil #Geopolitics #Statecraft #Energy
Middle East Conflict Fuels South African Petrol Shortage Fears
South Africa: Middle East conflict sparks fears of fuel rationing and petrol shortages in South Africa https://t.co/FvxkRqShtg
China’s Economy Anchors Global Growth as 2026 Targets 4.5‑5% Expansion
On March 17, Beijing’s National People’s Congress and CPPCC concluded their two‑session meeting, where China announced a 2026 GDP growth target of 4.5‑5% and unveiled a suite of fiscal measures. Foreign Minister Wang Yi, alongside investors like South Korea’s STI...
China's Central Asian Influence Extends Beyond Extractive Industries
I'm afraid China's economic presence in Central Asia went way beyond oil, gas, and mining some time ago. If folks still think it's all just about extractive industries, they've missed quite a bit about the Chinese presence.
China’s State Banks Shift Forward FX Book Post‑2010
The visible forward book of China, Inc (state banks plus PBOC) -- or at least changes in the book after 2010 FX settlement data via Bloomberg 1/ https://t.co/IgUc2aEtHT
U.S. Gasoline Prices Surge, Heightening Political Pressure on Biden Administration
In the United States, gasoline prices jumped sharply over the past 24 hours, a development reported by BBC Business that is intensifying political pressure on the Biden administration. The surge comes as consumers face higher fuel costs and lawmakers question...
Seventh Oil Shock Arrives, Yet Recession Uncertain
The first five oil shocks since 1970 triggered recessions. The sixth one in 2022 didn't. Now we're in the seventh spike. 🔒 Members-Only https://t.co/E0T0q5vh0c
Iran-Israel War Sends Oil Over $100, Triggers Global Energy Triage and Rate Hikes
On March 16‑17, 2026, the intensifying Iran‑Israel war shut down the Strait of Hormuz, trapping roughly 20 million barrels of oil per day and lifting Brent crude to just above $100 a barrel. The shock spurred the Reserve Bank of Australia...
Urgent: US Multinationals' Massive Tax Avoidance Demands Attention
Trying to get the folks who matter to care about industrial scale tax avoidance by US multinationals ...
Iran Hints at Post‑War Strait of Hormuz Deal
Iranian FM Araghchi is talking of a new "post-war arrangement" for the Strait of Hormuz. Would be interesting to see what other details emerge. Right now, the markets are more focused on what kind of "war arrangement" might fall into place, if...
PBOC Sets USD/ CNY Mid-Point Today at 6.8909 (Vs. Estimate at 6.8798)
The People’s Bank of China (PBOC) set the USD/CNY reference rate at 6.8909 for the current session, modestly above the 6.8798 market estimate. The central bank maintains the yuan’s daily fluctuation band at plus or minus 2% around this midpoint....
Trump Announces Xi Summit in Five to Six Weeks
Trump Says Meeting With Xi Taking Place in Five to Six Weeks—President Trump said his planned summit in Beijing with Chinese President Xi Jinping will take place in about five or six weeks. @KThomasDC https://t.co/8gdFGagYZb
Geopolitical Risk Spikes to 21st‑century Worst Levels
This measure of geopolitical risk just hit levels that put the current moment in the same league as the most dangerous moments of the 21st century. https://t.co/7ciy5RuN8b
Turkey Emerges as Revived Route for Iraqi Oil Amid Hormuz Crisis
Iraq announced the rapid revival of the 600‑mile Kirkuk‑Ceyhan pipeline, aiming to resume crude shipments to Turkey and bypass the Hormuz bottleneck caused by the Iran‑US‑Israel conflict. The oil ministry expects the line to be operational within a week, targeting...
Philippines Down to Its Last Three Weeks of Fuel Reserves, Turns to Russia for Help
The Philippines faces a looming fuel shortage, with national reserves estimated at only three to four weeks of supply. The crisis stems from Iran’s restriction of the Strait of Hormuz, a key conduit for 20% of global oil, which has...
Fed Rate Call Sets Direction for Stocks and Dollar
My latest on tomorrow FED rate decision and what to expect for stocks and the US dollar
Reeves Plans to Give England’s Regional Leaders a Share of National Tax Revenues
Chancellor Rachel Reeves announced plans to devolve a share of national tax revenues, starting with income tax, to England’s regional mayors. The Treasury will also allocate £2.3 bn in city investment funds and allow future business‑rates revenue to stay with metro...
Sustainable Farming Push Could Avoid £150bn Economic Hit, Report Warns
A cross‑party think‑tank report, funded by McCain Foods, warns that the UK could face a £150 billion economic hit by 2050 if sustainable farming is not scaled up. It estimates regenerative practices could unlock over £56 billion in natural capital by 2035...
US-China; PRC-Vietnam; H200s; China Cuts the "Apple Tax"; Chinese Modernization and 15th Five-Year Plan
President Trump indicated his long‑awaited summit with Xi Jinping could be pushed back five to six weeks, likely occurring after April 20, as China signals tentative approval but remains cautious amid the ongoing war in Europe. A senior Chinese delegation...
Oil Risks Spark Inflation, Reviving Short‑Gold, Long‑Bitcoin Play
War, oil, and crypto collide with Ram Ahluwalia, Austin Campbell, Chris Perkins 🛢️ Why elevated oil risks flipping markets into an inflationary regime 📉 Deleveraging everywhere ₿ "Short gold, long Bitcoin" trade is back on the desk 🎲 Prediction markets...
US Blocks Cuban Oil Shipments, Keeps Rubio in Dark
No one told Rubio that the United States is blocking oil shipments to Cuba. Trump wants to keep in the dark on this.
Global Trade Flows Stay Resilient Despite War, Tariff, Geopolitical Tensions
The DHL Global Connectedness Report 2026 shows globalization holding steady at a 25% index in 2025, matching the 2022 peak. Global trade grew faster than any year since 2017, driven largely by a surge in AI‑related product shipments that accounted...
U.S. Hits Iranian Coastal Missile Sites With Bunker-Buster Bombs
U.S. Central Command confirmed that on March 17, 2026 it deployed multiple 5,000‑pound deep‑penetrator bunker‑buster bombs against hardened Iranian missile sites along the coast of the Strait of Hormuz. The strikes targeted underground launch and storage facilities that could threaten...
As Oil Price Surges, Will US Fracking Production Increase?
The episode examines how the recent surge in oil prices, driven by the Middle East conflict, is affecting U.S. shale production and global economies. CEO Mike Eastman of Tall City explains that despite higher prices, his company is not altering...
Standard Chartered Predicts Oil Prices Will Remain Higher For Longer
Standard Chartered raised its 2026 Brent forecast to $85.50 a barrel, up from $70, citing a 7.4‑8.2 million bpd supply cut from the Middle‑East war and limited off‑ramps. The bank projects quarterly Brent prices ranging from $78 in Q1 to $98...
RBA Responds to Domestic Strength and Rising External Risks
On March 17 the Reserve Bank of Australia lifted the cash rate by 25 basis points, marking its second straight increase and a sharp reversal from the gradual easing path pursued throughout 2025. The hikes respond to inflation running above...
Oil at $150/Barrel Could Push Inflation to 6% Q2
PANTHEON MACRO: In a $150/barrel oil scenario, “we think inflation would peak in Q2 at about 6% ..” https://t.co/lFerTyCGCR
U.S. Customs Tightens Importer of Record Rules
U.S. Customs and Border Protection announced that, effective March 20, 2026, it will begin canceling Importer of Record (IOR) numbers for declarations submitted after 12:01 a.m. ET. Importers must now provide an updated CBP 5106 form, government‑issued photo ID, EIN verification...