Today's Global Economy Pulse
Australia's April CPI eases to 4.2% as fuel cuts mask rising core inflation
The consumer price index slipped to a 4.2% annual rise in April, missing the 4.4% forecast, helped by a temporary fuel excise cut that lowered transport costs. Meanwhile, the trimmed‑mean core inflation gauge rose to 3.4% year‑over‑year, the highest level since late‑2024, keeping pressure on the Reserve Bank of Australia’s policy outlook.
The Era of Cheap Money Is over as the Iran War Creates a Permanent 'Inflation Floor'
The Iran war has created a lasting inflation floor, signaling the end of the post‑2008 era of cheap money. Persistent oil price spikes and supply disruptions are forcing nations to prioritize energy security over cost efficiency. Central banks, which previously relied on ultra‑easy policy, now face tighter monetary conditions. The shift is expected to de‑globalise energy markets and raise structural costs across the economy.
Cramer Weighs in on 'Hack Downgrade' Of Starbucks — and What's Behind Amazon's Dip
Jim Cramer’s CNBC Investing Club highlighted a market pull‑back driven by hotter‑than‑expected wholesale inflation data and rising oil prices amid Middle‑East tensions. Amazon stock slipped nearly 2% after a Reuters report warned that AI‑driven cloud spending could surge, prompting concerns...
Trump Likely to Block Russia's Oil Shipments to Cuba
russia sending two shipments of oil. and gas to…cuba. will president trump order interdiction? i’d say pretty good chance he will.
War Over Ships and Tariffs, Not Hormuz Opening
Let's unpack this.. What if the White House has no intention of reopening the Strait of Hormuz? What if this war is really about ships & tariffs? I had a long discussion with senior DOE official yesterday on background. I can’t share...
Oil Shock Spreads Global Strain
The episode examines the ripple effects of the recent oil price surge, sparked by an Iranian petrochemical plant strike, on global markets and everyday life. Market maker Greg Newman describes unprecedented volatility and links the crisis to broader geopolitical tensions...
Middle East Tensions Push Brent Crude Past $110
Brent crude oil prices surge to $110/barrel. Israel strikes Iran's largest gas plant. Iran is now announcing that some Gulf energy sites are "legitimate targets."
Fed Holds Rates as Yields Slip Amid Iran Conflict and Internal Divisions
The Federal Reserve will announce a hold on its benchmark rate at the March 2026 meeting, while 10‑year Treasury yields slipped to 4.202% amid soaring oil prices and heightened Middle East tensions. Market participants cite a near‑certain pause, internal disagreements...
Economic Uncertainty and Digital Payment Infrastructure
The ongoing Middle East conflict has driven oil‑gas price spikes, heightening economic uncertainty across the region. In the Philippines, digital‑payment platforms have become a key buffer, with 72 % of consumer transactions conducted electronically in 2025 and a three‑fold rise in...
Higher Energy Prices Might Eat Your Tax Refund, Economists Say
Stanford economists estimate that rising gasoline prices could cost the average U.S. household about $740 this year, roughly matching the projected $750 boost from the 2023 tax refund legislation. Their model assumes a brief Strait of Hormuz closure, with gasoline...
Congo Export Curbs to Keep Cobalt Scarce Till 2030
The Democratic Republic of Congo, responsible for over 70% of global cobalt, imposed an export ban in February 2025 and later introduced strict quotas, slashing refined output by roughly 20%. The curbs created an 82,000‑ton deficit in 2025 and drove...
Strait of Hormuz LNG Disruption Exposes Risks to Global LNG Supply and Asian Gas Markets
Disruption in the Strait of Hormuz has constrained tanker flows, cutting roughly 20% of global LNG supply. The shutdown of Qatar’s Ras Laffan plant and reduced transit capacity have driven sharp price spikes across Asian and European markets. Approximately 90%...
AN IMPOSSIBLE FOMC MEETING
The Federal Open Market Committee convened an atypical session this week, delivering a surprise 25‑basis‑point rate increase despite a modest dip in headline inflation. The decision broke with the consensus of many analysts who had expected a pause, reflecting the...
The Fed Holds — And Every Word Matters
The Federal Reserve is expected to keep its policy rate at the 3.50%‑3.75% range, marking a second consecutive pause after three 25‑basis‑point cuts in late 2025. Markets have already priced in the hold, so investors will focus on Chair Jerome...
Kenya Calls for African Self-Reliance Amid Global Upheaval
Kenya’s foreign minister Musalia Mudavadi urged African nations to boost self‑reliance as the Iran conflict fuels global fragmentation and rising oil prices. He framed the moment as a historic inflection point, calling for a multi‑alliance foreign policy that balances traditional...
Oil's Global Price Cracks Under Stress, Spreads Surge
Oil is a almost perfectly fungible commodity* with a single global price ... except during periods of stress Via JP's Natasha Kaneva, the spread between North Atlantic sweet light and the oil Asia normally buys has reached extreme levels * setting...
Trump’s NATO Betrayal Leaves Europe Refusing Bailout
Trump spent years trashing NATO. He's been threatening to have the US withdrawal since his first term. Now he wants NATO to bail him out of a war he chose. Europe said no. That’s not the story of weak allies- that’s the consequence of...
Piraeus Declines 6% for Second Year, Cosco Ports Results Show
Cosco‑controlled Piraeus port reported a 6% drop in 2025 throughput, handling 3.97 million TEU, marking the second consecutive year of decline. Analysts attribute the loss to Red Sea disruptions that rerouted cargo to Spain and northern Europe rather than pure demand...
Iran Gas Strike Could Push Turkey to Import More LNG
An unintended consequence of the strikes on Iran’s gas fields? Turkey may be forced to import more LNG 🇹🇷 🚢 Iran sends gas from South Pars to Turkey via a pipeline (making up ~15% of the country’s demand) If that’s shut,...
Iran Threatens Gulf Gas Assets, Rattles Global Market
Iran appears to be preparing to retaliate after attacks on its giant gas field 🇮🇷 ⚠️ It issued a warning to stay away from a range of similar assets in Qatar, Saudi Arabia and the UAE The inclusion of Qatar (home...
Wholesale Inflation Rose Sharply Ahead Of Iran War
U.S. wholesale price growth accelerated sharply in March 2026, marking the third consecutive month of above‑trend increases according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics. The Wholesale Price Index rose 0.7% month‑over‑month and 4.2% year‑over‑year, the fastest pace since 2022. The...
Fed Likely Holds Rates as Iran War Fuels Uncertainty
The Fed is expected to hold rates steady at a tenuous moment for the economy as the Iran war drags on. The conflict is expected to amplify internal divisions, injecting yet more uncertainty into the debate around when the Fed...
Iran Crisis Pushes Oil to $150, Hurting Voters
Oil is heading to $150 a barrel. And the people who will feel it hardest are the ones who voted for the man who caused it. I sat down to break down exactly what the Iran crisis means for oil markets,...
WEEKLY WEBCAST: Is Less Dire Strait Easing Market Fears? (With Special Guest Eric Wallerstein)
Dr. Ed’s latest webcast, featuring Eric Wallerstein, assesses the impact of the Strait of Hormuz tension on energy markets. He argues that the perceived blockade is less severe, with oil supply disruptions roughly half of worst‑case estimates. Iran’s decision to...
Data Shows Firms Are Passing Through Price Increases, Defying Fed
Fed: "K-shaped economy, firms can't pass through price increases." Data: "Firms pass through price increases."
SquirrelMacro Urges Trimming Stocks Amid Weak IPOs, Credit Cracks
OUT NOW - @SquirrelMacro loves owning stocks but keeps seeing reasons to lighten his bag, from: - mega IPO issuance of money-losing companies - cracks in software & private credit - U.S. consumer weakening Apple https://t.co/qZiDfSFK94 Spotify https://t.co/zqeGlNjrbb https://t.co/53hmkQuqqX
Hormuz Disruption Forces IEA to Release 400M Barrels
20% of global oil flows through the Strait of Hormuz. It's been disrupted for 3 weeks. IEA released 400M barrels from reserves. That tells you how serious this is. https://t.co/KrxQw3KVSX
Trade Services Inflation Accelerating, Now Double Pre‑pandemic Pace
IDK if this is really much of a silver lining. On trend means that trade services are passing on costs at twice the pre-pandemic pace. That speaks to embedded inflation above target. https://t.co/IwClLNNndO
2026's Oil Shock Rivals 1973‑79 Long‑run Impacts
it is true that 2026 is seeing the most sudden shock to oil and gas supply. But both 1973 and 1979 had a very significant effect on long-run output as well. More featured on today's Chartbook Top Links in the...
Feb PCE Firm Yet Slightly Weaker Than Expected
Even though PPI in February printed high, the components that filter into PCE (including downward revisions for December) came in a bit lower than the sharp-pencils anticipated. February PCE is still expected to be firm, but a touch less so...
Iran Conflict May Spark 10‑15% Market Correction
Ed Yardeni tells Squawk Box the Iran war could trigger a 10%-15% market correction. https://t.co/N1pfsujcVF
Understanding Oil Shock Shift: From Inflation to Demand Destruction
I think this is the most important question to understand moving forward. Asked @BobEUnlimited about what his checklist looks like for when oil shocks flip from inflation to demand destruction
Russian Aide Brands US Iran War a Global Economic Tragedy
In some of Russia's harshest criticism of the US war in Iran, which Putin has tried not to say much on, top aide Nikolai Patrushev calls it a "tragedy" that will "set global trade and economics back years" and "has...
Taiwan Imports Surpass China, Undermining Trump’s Bilateral Focus
The Trump Administration makes way too much of the bilateral balance with China -- Monthly imports from Taiwan alone topped imports from China in the last quarter of data 1/2 https://t.co/IOKB3Ii1lH
Fed Should Stabilize Nominal Income Growth Amid Supply Shocks
Great quote that speaks to the Fed's challenging task of (1) looking through supply shocks while also (2) maintaining a robust nominal anchor. As folks like @IrvingSwisher and I have said for sometime, stabilizing the growth path of aggregate nominal...
China Covertly Sustains Iran with Oil and Rockets
How China Is Quietly Helping an Isolated Iran Survive—From buying oil to selling rocket parts, China gives Iran critical support @austinramzy @RoryWSJ https://t.co/xCbI1lO7VO https://t.co/xCbI1lO7VO
Foreign‑flag Tankers Raise Domestic Fuel Costs, Study Finds
"A careful look at the current state of international market freight rates shows that, in fact, substituting a foreign flag tanker on a domestic route currently served by a Jones Act tanker would more than likely result in an increase...
Trump Tariffs Spike Diesel, Fertilizer Costs, Threaten Farm Voters
Trump’s tariffs and the US-Israeli war on Iran are sending fertilizer and diesel costs through the roof. Diesel is up ~$1/gallon in a week. Urea fertilizer has jumped from $470/ton to up to $585. This jump in cost spells trouble for Trump and...
Stocks Tumble as PPI Spikes Beyond Forecasts
JUST IN: Stocks drop as Wholesale Inflation (PPI) comes in higher than expected (+0.7% MoM vs +0.3% forecast)
Iran War Reshapes Fed Expectations and Monetary Policy Outlook
Worth noting just how much the Iran war has changed expectations about the Fed and the future path of monetary policy. https://t.co/NBYZx2Uuza
China's EU Trade Surplus Rises in First Two Months
In news not related to the Straights of Hormuz, China's trade surplus with the EU ticked up in the first two months of the year 1/ https://t.co/uWb594zrUq
China Refuses to Tap Reserves for Global Supply
Well, China isn't going to dip into its strategic reserves to help supply the rest of the world ... 1/2
Asia Faces Demand Destruction as Middle Eastern Crude Hits $150
1/5 Where Is the Demand Destruction? tl:dr - Asia because they are reliant on Middle Eastern Crude oil, and it is now over $150/barrel. This is keeping (for now) the American and European grades "only" ~$100. (% gain since the war) https://t.co/A6Rk6TjszH
Presidential Tweets Trump Central Bank Rate Moves
"Does anyone really care if central banks raise or lower interest rates by 25 basis points, when the US president can send entire economies into a tailspin with a post on Truth Social?" Coppola Comment, 10th March. https://t.co/cCBaBOBPfB
PPI Stays Elevated at 3.4% Amid Fed QE Shift
February’s US Producer Price Index (PPI) was just released. Over the past year, the PPI REMAINS ELEVATED at 3.4%/yr. As the Fed pivots away from Quantitative Tightening to Quantitative Easing, it’s having trouble putting the INFLATION GENIE BACK IN THE BOTTLE. https://t.co/XFlfmOdN5q
Oil Shocks Shape Economy; Central Banks' Response Blueprint
Incredibly important episode with @BobEUnlimited where we deep dive into how oil shocks impact the economy and how central banks react. This is the ultimate playbook
Core Producer Prices Surge, Fed Rate Cuts Unlikely
US producer price inflation ex-food and energy came in at the fastest pace since January 2025 for the month of February, before the oil price shock. It's going to be very hard for this Fed to signal rate cuts ahead...
Inflation Surge Puts Fed Meeting at Crisis Crossroads
Inflation Just EXPLODED 🔥 Does the Fed Have a Crisis on its Hands? Stocks crashed. Gold collapsed. Dollar soared Fed meets TODAY - and this one number could change everything for 2026👇 Follow for updates $SPY $QQQ $DIA $GLD $DXY $USDJPY $ES...
War‑driven Inflation Pushes Oil, Yields, Dollar Higher
Wars are inflationary - and rising oil, yields & dollar are the play. Not metals right now, as warned to clients. #Gold #Silver Wholesale inflation comes in hot for February with producer prices rising 3.4%, the biggest jump in a...
Trump Missed Iran’s Escalation Ladder, Warns Former Defense Official
Dana Stroul, former US deputy assistant secretary of defense for the Middle East: “It does not appear that President Trump and his inner circle fully grasped the escalation ladder and range of Iranian retaliation actions" An understatement if I've ever heard one....
Rate Shifts Since Jan FOMC Concentrated at Front End
Rates moves from Jan FOMC to today are basically all in the front end https://t.co/z4SHlodCLM