Today's Global Economy Pulse
Australia's April CPI eases to 4.2% as core inflation hits 2024 high
Australia’s consumer price index slipped to a 4.2% annual rise in April, missing the 4.4% consensus as a temporary fuel excise cut trimmed transport costs. At the same time, the trimmed‑mean core inflation gauge rose to 3.4% year‑over‑year, the highest level since late‑2024, keeping pressure on the Reserve Bank of Australia’s inflation target.
Autumn 1914, Pushing Hard Towards Winter
Iranian forces launched a missile that struck Qatar’s Ras Laffan LNG complex, the world’s largest liquefied natural gas plant, causing extensive damage and prompting fears of a prolonged supply shock. The attack follows Israel’s strike on Iran’s South Pars field, escalating a tit‑for‑tat conflict that could drive global gas prices higher and strain already‑inflated food and energy costs. Tech entrepreneur Balaji Srinivasan warned that the ensuing instability may cripple tech financing, datacenter funding, and IPO pipelines for an indefinite period. Simultaneously, rapid AI advances are displacing knowledge workers, amplifying elite overproduction and heightening the risk of economic and political upheaval.
CPI/Powell, Downdraws in Stocks and Timelines
The latest Consumer Price Index showed a modest 0.3% monthly increase, bringing the annual inflation rate to 3.2%. Fed Chair Jerome Powell emphasized a cautious stance, warning against premature rate cuts. The data sparked a 1.2% pullback in the S&P...
Reserves Meant for Supply Shocks, Not Price Cushioning
Reserves shouldn’t be for cushioning prices at this point… you may never know with the madmen bombing everything in the Middle East, there may be no fuel coming in at all… the reserves are for such times…. If it was...
UK Job Market Softens as Economy Set to Worsen
UK employment data show a softening labour market, with payroll jobs falling by 49,000 in February and vacancies slipping to 721,000, the lowest level in recent months. The unemployment rate held steady at 5.2% despite the job losses. Wage growth...
A Guide to Emerging Markets Investing Solutions>
Emerging markets, home to 87% of the global population and projected to generate 60% of world GDP by 2026, are vastly under‑represented in international equity indices, creating a structural allocation gap. VanEck leverages this gap with $8.1 billion in EM assets,...
Stocks Likely Decline as Fed Cuts Lose Market Support
I can’t really see the scenario where stocks don’t go lower in the near term. Maybe that’s s bull case? Market has been so desperate for a taco people have been making their own and forgot that in an actual...
We Need to Be Honest About Iran – and How Our Rampant Greed for Oil Is Causing Mayhem | George...
George Monbiot argues that Western interventions in Iran, beginning with the 1953 oil‑driven coup, illustrate how fossil‑fuel greed fuels geopolitical conflict. He links that historic struggle to today’s climate emergency, noting that oil profits sustain wars, authoritarian regimes, and climate...
Explainer | Why India Is Pushing to Cut Remittance Costs at WTO
India is spearheading a WTO proposal to slash cross‑border remittance fees that currently eat 5‑6% of transaction values. The initiative targets regulatory and technical barriers, aiming to bring costs below the UN Sustainable Development Goal of 3% by 2030. Backed...
Safe Until Crisis: What 300 Years of Wars Reveal About Government Debt Safety
A new VoxEU column by Jiang, Lustig, Van Nieuwerburgh and Xiaolan examines three centuries of U.S. and U.K. war and pandemic episodes. Their analysis shows that sovereign bonds, traditionally viewed as safe havens, have repeatedly suffered large real‑term losses during...
The Five Year Inflation Breakeven at 2.66%
The five‑year Treasury‑TIPS breakeven inflation rate has climbed to 2.66%, marking a 0.26‑percentage‑point increase since the onset of the war. The rise is captured alongside the DKW model’s inflation expectations, both plotted against the Treasury spread. A parallel chart links...
From Ports to Prices: The Inflationary Effects of Global Supply Chain Disruptions
IMF economists published a paper quantifying how shipping delays translate into consumer price inflation. By constructing a port‑to‑port shipping time index from AIS maritime data and linking it to granular trade and price information, they find that a 100‑hour delay...
Fed Ends Easy Cuts
Takeaways from the March Fed meeting: • The era of 'easy' cuts could be over. Last year's were a recalibration; the next ones have to be earned with better inflation data or downside risks being realized. • The dots weren't as hawkish...
The Big Picture: Macro & Onchain Update with TBL
Checkonchain announced a new interview series with The Bitcoin Layer, featuring a split discussion between macro analyst Nik Bhatia and on‑chain specialist James. Nik will dissect current liquidity, the US‑Iran conflict, oil prices, and dollar strength, while James will evaluate...
Indonesia’s Closing Window for a Demographic Dividend
Indonesia’s once‑large demographic dividend is nearing its end as the youth population peaks around 2030 and begins to shrink. While the working‑age cohort will still grow to over 200 million by 2045, manufacturing’s contribution to GDP has stalled, exposing a mismatch...
Trump Tariffs Raise Prices, Squeeze American Families
Trump’s tariffs aren’t just numbers—they’re hitting American families in their wallets, raising prices, and forcing businesses to close.
China Pledges SE Asian Energy Cooperation While Halting Fuel Exports
China telling Southeast Asia it's ready to work together on energy security is a little... strange... given they're also banning all fuel exports (something Beijing has yet to publicly acknowledge) https://t.co/tm36jPLTKT
Why Does Gold Always Crash in a Crisis?
Gold is forming a double‑top pattern despite strong support levels, prompting questions about its safe‑haven reliability. The article argues that gold’s protective role is linked to hedging against currency debasement, not crisis‑driven risk aversion. In market turmoil, liquidity dries up,...
SNB Signals Greater Willingness to Intervene in FX
🇨🇭 Stronger verbal intervention language from the SNB: "the SNB's willingness to intervene in the foreign exchange market has increased". https://t.co/yuDHGc7oUG https://t.co/wcrzVudyN7
Trump’s Claim False as Iran Still Disrupts Oil
"Although President Donald Trump says he has 'destroyed 100% of Iran’s Military Capability', the 0% that remains is playing havoc with the global economy by choking off 10-15% of its oil supply." https://t.co/h5NKTbG7R8
Aussie Unemployment Calm Before the Storm
The Australian Bureau of Statistics reported that the headline unemployment rate rose to 4.3% in February, up from 4.1% in January, even as 48,900 jobs were added. Monthly hours worked slipped 0.2%, hinting that the job gains may be superficial....
China Leads
Sorry it should be Pakistan, India, Singapore, Taiwan, China, Thailand, South Korea and Japan. By volume, China imports the most from Qatar but share of total is also very high so rather exposed.
Rising US Debt Drives Gold and Silver Surge
US national debt just hit ~$39T fueling fiat debasement fears. Gold's parabolic run to $5,000+/oz & silver to $120+/oz? Classic safe-haven hedge against exploding debt, uncertainty, central bank buying & weak dollar. $gld $slv https://t.co/IcA8Eo0nGL
Producer Price Index: Wholesale Inflation Up 0.7% In February
Wholesale inflation accelerated in February, with the Producer Price Index rising 0.7% month‑over‑month, surpassing the 0.3% consensus. Core PPI, which strips out food and energy, increased 0.5% m/m and 3.9% year‑over‑year, indicating persistent underlying price pressure. Finished‑goods prices jumped 1.0%...
Eurozone Inflation Below Target as Money Growth Lags
The Eurozone’s inflation comes in at 1.9%/yr. That's below its 2% target. The ECB’s money supply is only growing at 3.4%/yr. That's BELOW Hanke’s Golden Growth Rate of 6%/yr, a rate consistent w/ hitting ECB’s 2%/yr target. INFLATION STORY = MONEY SUPPLY...
European Gas Spikes 30% After Qatar LNG Plant Hit
European gas prices surge 30% after Qatar said the world’s largest LNG export plant was damaged in an Iranian attack (Still TTF futures are far from the record highs of 2022) https://t.co/FC5b6KjHpJ
Trump’s China Visit Faces New Trade Dynamics as Supreme Court Strikes Down Emergency Tariffs
President Donald Trump will travel to Beijing from March 31 to April 2, the first U.S. presidential visit since 2017. A Supreme Court ruling that invalidated his broad emergency‑tariff authority removes a key leverage tool, giving President Xi Jinping stronger bargaining power...
Admin's Export Restrictions Threaten U.S. Energy Credibility
There's no way that shortly after tweeting this, the admin would destroy international confidence in the reliability of the U.S. as an energy exporter by restricting oil exports? Right?
Fed Caught Between Strong Economy Claims and Market Reality
Powell says the economy is strong and inflation will moderate. The stock market tanked anyway. The Fed may be trapped between geopolitical shocks and economic reality. 🔒 Members-Only https://t.co/z9r6WCt1RC
Global Gas Explodes, Local Will Be OK
Israel launched an airstrike on Iran’s South Pars gasfield, a hub that generates roughly 20% of the nation’s electricity. Tehran retaliated by threatening attacks on oil and gas infrastructure throughout the Gulf region. The exchange is part of a broader...
China Emerges as Biggest Loser in Grand Strategy
That's a bad/first echelon take. There is a much larger picture. China is the big loser in their grand strategy plans: https://t.co/usYe48iDIM
Startup Think Tank Leads Deep China FX Policy Analysis
Really? Name one start-up think tank that analyzes the latest twist and turns in China's fx policy with any depth. I would humbly submit that this blog is at the analytical frontier, ahead of what most of...
New Zealand Growth Undershoots as Domestic Demand Softens
New Zealand’s fourth‑quarter GDP expanded only 0.2% quarter‑on‑quarter, missing the 0.4% consensus, while annual growth held at 1.3% year‑on‑year, below the 1.7% forecast. Both production‑based (0.2% q/q) and expenditure‑based (0.1% q/q) measures signalled a sharp slowdown in domestic demand. The weaker...
Saudi Crude Loadings Persist Despite Red Sea Attack Rumors
Lots of chatter in the oil market about whether a Saudi refinery in the Red Sea was attacked or not. One thing, however, appears clear: crude loadings at Yanbu and Al Muajjiz continue as normal, with 4 tankers getting their...
Container Congestion Relaxes Post‑Iran Shock, Rates Stay High
Container port congestion eases after initial Iran shock Initial disruption to container supply chains from the Middle East crisis appears to have eased but rates remain elevated. https://t.co/fvMVOw29Pz
New Fed "Dot Plot" Sends Markets Sliding
The Federal Reserve left its policy rate unchanged at 3.50‑3.75% and, via the latest dot‑plot, signaled only a single 25‑basis‑point cut for 2026 and another in 2027. The announcement sent the Dow, S&P 500, Nasdaq and Russell 2000 down between 1.3% and...
Oil Shock Repricing Begins; Inflation or Slow Growth Hurts Stocks
OUT NOW - how @BobEUnlimited sees it: - the repricing of the oil shock into markets is "just getting started" - higher inflation or lower growth, BOTH scenarios are bad for stocks Apple https://t.co/tA37rAtLtM Spotify https://t.co/wRcaaAtWld YouTube https://t.co/RDM5IJfiVx https://t.co/0Zt9BALTn7
Iran Hits Qatar LNG Hub, Threatening Global Supply
Iran has successfully broken through Qatari air defenses for the second day in a row, this time striking the globally significant Ras Laffan energy complex. The strikes come after Iran’s own natural gas processing plants along the shared North Dome/South Pars...
Charai for The National Interest: Why Iran Was Always a Threat to the US
Ahmed Charai argues that Iran has been a strategic threat to the United States since the 1979 revolution, driven by its pursuit of regional hegemony and asymmetric capabilities. He highlights Tehran’s expanding ballistic‑missile inventory, its accelerated nuclear enrichment, and its...
FOMC's Dovish Pause Masks Hawkish Stagflation Risks
Participants at the FOMC meeting rounded the wagons around Powell at a difficult moment for Fed independence. What looked like a dovish pause on the surface had hawkish undertones. Risks to meeting participants forecasts were to the downside on growth,...
Oil Price Spikes Historically Signal Upcoming Recessions
This is a remarkable chart. Oil surges like the one we’ve seen recently have consistently preceded recessions. Chart by @thierryborgeat https://t.co/GpMNhNl06Y
Mortgage Rates Move Back Up Near Recent Highs
Mortgage rates rebounded Wednesday, climbing to the highest levels seen in several months after three rapid repricings. A stronger-than-expected Producer Price Index lifted inflation expectations, while a $6 jump in crude oil pushed bond yields higher. Fed Chair Jerome Powell’s...
Demand Collapse Shifts Crisis From Inflation to Growth Shock
Demand destruction started in Asia and spreading to Egypt. The only way this equation will square when supply is short is for demand to fall. Prices higher & demand falling means growth will be a challenge. The crisis will move from...
BWET Triples; New Iran Conflict Beta Watchlist Unveiled
Since our January 13th macro memo, our top weighted pick BWET has more than tripled (and seems set to go even higher). Today, we released to subscribers a new list of names that have yet to reprice as violently in...
The BoC Rate Hold: Brought to You By the Letter ‘U’ for Uncertain
The Bank of Canada left its overnight rate unchanged at 2.25%, citing headline inflation of 1.8% and a softening core CPI. Governor Tiff Macklem repeatedly emphasized uncertainty, flagging dual‑shock risks from higher oil prices and the Iran conflict alongside volatile...
Iran's Collapse Won’t Mirror Yemen’s Strategic Gains
Turning Iran into Yemen isn't the strategic victory some people may expect if Red Sea shipping is anything to go by.
Fed's Latest Move Hints at Future Policy Amid Iran, Tariffs
Let me be your Fed whisperer. What the Fed decided, what we can infer about it's next steps, how Iran and tariffs factored in, and what it all means for you. https://t.co/3JC756KIAH
Iranian Missile Damages Qatar LNG Hub, Threatens Global Supply
Qatars industrial complex housing the world’s largest LNG export plant suffered “extensive damage” after an Iranian missile strike 🇶🇦 ⚠️ The plant provides 20% of global LNG supply, and was shut earlier this month. But a delayed restart (due to...
Export Limits Would Backfire, Raising U.S. Gas Prices
In my latest @ColumbiaUEnergy Energy Explained blog post, Neelesh Nerurkar & I argue that restricting US oil exports, once again reportedly being discussed in DC, would backfire—offering little relief to US consumers while imposing more significant economic and geopolitical costs
Powell Warns White House, Asserts Fed’s Crucial Leverage
Fed Chair Jay Powell fired a warning shot today, reminding the White House that he holds some pretty important cards. Yes, it's drama, melodrama and soap opera. But it also really matters. And I admire how Powell has handled himself here....
Hormuz Closure Sparks Oil Spike, Not Deficit Monetization
If Hormuz is still closed in a month (it likely will be), this is going to turn into "We are doing more not-QE RMP's into an oil spike, but we are NOT monetizing deficits" so fast that investors heads will...