Today's Global Economy Pulse
Australia's April CPI eases to 4.2% as core inflation hits 2024 high
Australia’s consumer price index slipped to a 4.2% annual rise in April, missing the 4.4% consensus as a temporary fuel excise cut trimmed transport costs. At the same time, the trimmed‑mean core inflation gauge rose to 3.4% year‑over‑year, the highest level since late‑2024, keeping pressure on the Reserve Bank of Australia’s inflation target.
Trump Praises Japan’s Takaichi on Iran as Hormuz Crisis Strains Allies
U.S. President Donald Trump welcomed Japanese Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi to the White House, praising Japan for “stepping up” on Iran while contrasting it with NATO’s lukewarm stance. The discussion focused on securing the Strait of Hormuz, expanding energy cooperation, and possible Japanese contributions to mine‑clearing and missile‑defence initiatives. Tokyo highlighted its diplomatic channel with Tehran as a potential de‑escalation avenue, even as constitutional limits curb direct military action. Trump also hinted at a new tranche of Japanese investment in U.S. critical‑minerals and energy projects.
30
I'd say a 6.50% 30-year fixed seems like a foregone conclusion at this point. When not if... That'd be the first time rates were that high since last summer. Pretty sure the housing market can't handle a return to 7%, not...
Global Fossil Fuel Markets Fuel Domestic Energy Insecurity
Energy insecurity starts here. Fossil fuels are traded through systems where price is influenced not only by supply and demand, but by conflict, sanctions, and speculation. That means households and utilities can face higher costs even when local production remains...
Reefer Shippers Play Waiting Game with Boxes Stuck Outside Persian Gulf
Cold‑chain carriers are forced to pause reefer movements to the Middle East after the war erupted on Feb. 28, leaving containers stranded at ports outside the Persian Gulf. Ocean carriers have suspended acceptance of refrigerated, dangerous and special cargo in the...
Why Is Gold Melting?
Gold prices plunged to $4,508 per ounce, a sharp drop from the $5,311 close on March 2, even as geopolitical tensions and U.S. budget deficits rise. The decline coincided with Pentagon officials confirming a potential $200 billion supplemental request for the Iran‑related...
Extended Mideast Conflict Would Slow Trade and Growth, W.T.O. Warns
The World Trade Organization warned that the ongoing U.S.-Israeli war with Iran could further depress global trade in 2026. WTO forecasts goods trade growth at just 1.9%, a sharp decline from the 4.6% expected in 2025. Elevated crude oil and...
BoC Holds Rates; War Fuels Rising Inflation
Bank of Canada won’t be cutting rates anytime soon. Inflation is rising because of the war 🇮🇷
Tanzania Tax Review Warns of Trust Erosion, Proposes Sweeping Overhaul
A presidential tax reform commission in Tanzania presented a sweeping overhaul after a 17‑month delay, warning that the current tax system is eroding public trust. The nine‑member panel delivered 284 recommendations, including a formal National Tax Policy, a new Tax...
Hormuz Blues
Investigative journalist Greg Palast disclosed a confidential 323‑page plan drafted in 2004 that outlined how the United States and major oil firms intended to secure Iraq’s oil after the invasion. The document, obtained from the Heritage Foundation and a James Baker...
South Korea’s Arms Exports Are Now Involved in the Iran War
South Korea’s defence industry has become a key supplier to the United Arab Emirates, delivering M‑SAM 2 interceptors that have achieved a reported 96 percent hit rate against Iranian missiles. The conflict has forced Seoul to air‑lift interceptor reloads into an active...
The Iran War Tests Taiwan’s Energy Resilience
The US‑Israel war with Iran is disrupting Middle‑East oil and LNG shipments, exposing Taiwan’s heavy reliance on imported energy. Taiwan imports 95% of its energy, over 99% of oil and gas, and holds about 150 days of oil reserves but...
Lagarde Leans on “Propagation” Amid Inflation Uncertainty
ECB's Lagarde is asked to be specific on inflation in a bad case scenario. Instead of Powell's "I dunno", Lagarde says: be patient, I'll expand. Longer speech on "particularly attentive to..." -- uses the magic word "second round effect" --...
Fed Diverges, Creating Clean Macro Trade Opportunity
🚨Every central bank just warned us about inflation Here's what happened this week: ↳ Fed still stuck on easing ↳ ECB and BOE market pricing in 2-3 rate HIKES in 2026 ↳ BOJ keeping its tightening bias intact ↳ SNB hinting at negative rates to...
David vs Goliath: How Vanuatu Is Standing up to the US
Vanuatu is leading a diplomatic push at the United Nations to adopt a resolution that would implement the International Court of Justice’s 2025 advisory opinion on climate‑justice obligations. The draft, slated for an Earth Day vote on 22 April 2026, calls for...
War, Debt, and Inflation Will Cripple Growth Stocks
Growth stocks will be severely decapitated from this war. I just check some data and growth stocks valuations will get capped. Working overtime to get the data ready. It’s not as simple as just buying the dip with 1. Cost of War 2. Escalation of...
Oil Price Spikes Can Boost US Economy
People assume oil shocks are bad. But is that true for the US? After all, we are net exporters. This week's newsletter works through some simple models and calculations https://t.co/wohddXGXAR
Public Opinion in China Is Hardening on America and Taiwan
A new poll reveals Chinese public opinion is hardening toward the United States and Taiwan, with growing anti‑American sentiment and declining support for Taiwan’s independence. The survey, covering over a thousand respondents in major cities, shows a 12% drop in...
IEA Releases 400 Million Barrels, Initial Supplies Arrive
Following @IEA Member countries' decision to release 400 mln barrels of oil stocks to counter disruptions, initial volumes have already been made available Thank you to countries for their stock contributions & to Canada & Mexico for increased production: https://t.co/CjYXygzQpG https://t.co/sUGUpkuuU0
U.S. Administration Confirms No Oil Export Restrictions Planned
Important - U.S. admin says it has no plan to enact an oil export restriction
War Stalls UAE Gold Trade, Pushing Prices Down
Gold and Silver are down in what is a very interesting move in how the war is changing markets. In Gold, UAE is one of the largest importers (#1 in 2024, $105bn) and exporters (#2 in 2024, $78bn) of gold...
Markets Flip: From Rate Cuts to Rate Hikes
2 days ago, markets were still pricing in a (diminishing) bias towards imminent rate cuts. Now we are pricing in a (small) bias towards imminent rate hikes. Folks were not paying enough attention to the rise in the Fed's own inflation...
Oil Must Hit $138 for Recession Odds over 50%
How high does oil have to get for recession probability to top 50%? $138. That's the average answer in our latest survey of economists, who generally see an increase in inflation but little impact on growth from the Iran war....
Fed Underestimates Pre‑war Inflation, Mislabels Risks
New at THE OVERSHOOT: The Fed is Misreading the Inflation Risks https://t.co/NIh6rJDQhK Inflation was getting worse *before the war* across a broad range of categories. Yet Fed officials are still blaming "one-time things". https://t.co/xbrposAsbQ
June ECB Rate Hike More Likely than April
ECB sources suggesting they could hike in April, but if it goes that far I think June is more likely. ECB meeting: 30 April Consumer Expectations Survey (27 March, too early) Survey of Professional Forecasters (4 May, but they’ll get hints) Corporate Telephone...
ECB Officials Hint at Possible April Rate Hike
ECB officials see possibility of rate hike at April meeting https://t.co/p0GjFZzqz2 via @jrandow @Alemrome https://t.co/WN1EPwWl0Y
Dollar's Short-Term Risks vs Long-Term Strength
The U.S. Dollar: Short vs. Long Term Watch Full Video on YT ➡️ https://t.co/vgIHgyjagj #usd #useconomy #geopolitics
US, Allies Push De‑Escalation as Iran Escalates; Hormuz Closed
The US and its allies are making a concerted effort to de-escalate the oil/gas war, having witnessed that Iran was willing -- and able -- to climb the escalation ladder very quickly. To be seen whether Tehran plays ball. Whatever the...
China's Actions Could Cripple Global Fertilizer Supply
As with fuel, so with fertilizers. If maintained, China will remove a major global fertilizer exporter (second largest in 2024) from the market already slammed by the closure of the Straits https://t.co/ecZOLrSkBL
Stagflation: Prices Rise While Economy Slows
By the way, this is what stagflation feels like. Prices are going up, even though the economy is slowing down. It’s the worst economic indicator.
ECB Predicts Inflation Peaks at 6.3% by 2027
ECB sees inflation peaking at 6.3% in 2027 under severe scenario https://t.co/dHGmN1t9Cw via @weberalexander https://t.co/tdjWSfPgLG
Mearsheimer Warns Iran Is a Formidable Strategic Opponent
Distinguished Prof. John Mearsheimer on Iran’s strategy: “When you listen to Hegseth and Trump talk, they talk about the Iranians like they’re a bunch of country bumpkins and we’re the strategic geniuses...I think that's not the case…we are up against a formidable...
US Skips Crude Export Ban, Eyes Refined Limits
*US WILL NOT IMPLEMENT CRUDE EXPORT BAN: POLITICO ... OK, so how about refined products? I've been saying up 'till now that they're going to be tempted to restrict trade, but that I thought they'd be more likely to restrict refined products...
Iran Conflict Threatens Global Energy Summit, 47‑Year Tension
Iran war looms over global energy summit @CERAWeek it's "been brewing for 47 years," says historian @DanielYergin, whose own career rose alongside energy geopolitics. https://t.co/MsWAVCPXhv via @axios
Fed's Data Focus: Charles Payne Analyzes Decision-Making
Will the Fed look at the data? — #charlespayne and I break it down https://t.co/qyX222T1qM #powell #dimartinobooth #economy
Asian Demand Drives Premium Oil Bids, Not Manipulation
Why is everyone assuming CL manipulation and not just occam's razor that asian markets need oil and they cant access landlocked wti as easily and are all bidding up whatever is accessible even if at a significant premium
Polymarket Odds Mirror 2‑year Yield on 2026 Rate Cut
The Polymarket odds of "no rate cut in 2026" continue to generally track the 2-year yield https://t.co/VY0P2eN1XO
European Leaders Assess Middle East War Costs in Brussels
Europe counts the cost of Middle East war as leaders meet in Brussels https://t.co/Uw7ebXs3sG via @suzannelynch1 https://t.co/4He3c2iNMm
Food Inflation Fuels Political Instability, Threatening the Poor
15 years ago, the New England Complex Systems Institute looked at the relationship between food inflation and political instability. I can't emphasize its relevance now as inflation in everything is trampling those at the bottom. https://t.co/Wg5XzDJZAk https://t.co/Se3PcLw0YI
VIX Plunge Signals Rising Market Complacency Amid Stress
$VIX: 27.85 on March 13. 21.51 now. A 6+ point collapse in one week while oil trades near $100, the Fed just held, and private credit is cracking. Complacency doesn't announce itself. It just shows up in the $VIX. https://t.co/QOUSwv6YZ0
ECB Baseline Obsolete as Markets Price Adverse Inflation
🇪🇺 Unfortunately for the ECB, and despite the staff best efforts to use a later-than-usual cut-off date, their baseline scenario looks instantly obsolete. Market pricing for inflation is already consistent with the adverse scenarios. The main question is about indirect effects....
Argentina's 33% Inflation Fueled by Excess Money Supply
Argentina’s inflation comes in at a RED HOT 33.1%/yr. Argentina’s money supply (M3) is growing at 31.8%/yr. That's WELL ABOVE Hanke's Golden Growth Rate of 14.8%/yr, a rate consistent with hitting its de facto 10%/yr inflation target. INFLATION = PRES. MILEI'S ACHILLES...
2‑Year Yield Jump Signals Imminent Fed Rate Hike
The 2 year U.S. Treasury yield has risen 50 basis points in less than three weeks. It now suggests one Fed HIKE may be coming.
US and Brazil Negotiate Critical Mineral Partnership
US in talks with Brazil on critical minerals, US diplomat says at signing of Goias state deal https://t.co/zjFAOPA2pI
De-Dollarization Gold Theory Dead, I Remain Defensive
The de-dollarization thesis driving gold may be well and truly dead. I'm acting defensively. I have failed - once again - to internalize a theory of mind for pathological narcissists and psychopaths.
ECB Forecasts Mild Recession With
🇪🇺 ECB's risks scenarios, including a severe shock generating a mild recession, a rise in unemployment and core inflation peaking at 4%. The latter don't include any monetary policy change as @Lagarde noted, as opposed to the staff which accounts...
ECB's Caution Highlights BoE's Bold Move
its funny (to me) that the ECB obviously looked at the BoE statement today and thought "OK, lets not do anything THAT crazy". The BoE... making the ECB seem sensible
Lagarde’s Mic‑drop Secures Two ECB Rate Hikes
If I heard correctly, Lagarde just talked the ECB into two hikes this year with her mic drop at the end.
Lagarde Signals Two Rate Hikes in Upgraded Outlook
Wait what ... that was a bonkers cliff hanger by Lagarde. She basically say that their *upgraded* inflation baseline, and new growth forecasts, includes two hikes this year?! While their scenarios include nothing. That basically underwrites market expectations ... as...
China Trip Chaos Deepens Beijing's Frustration with US
Chaos over China trip likely to further test Beijing’s patience US leader’s call for delay as he focuses on Iran war follows reports of growing frustration at White House’s erratic behaviour Yes, Beijing hardly views as US "in control".... https://t.co/L5evYyMnMB via @scmpnews
Lag
Have a sense this will be a hawkish presser, on balance ... difficult for Lagarde to push back against market expectations given these new forecasts, unless you take a very asymmetric view on inflation v growth risks, which they may...