Today's Global Economy Pulse
Australia's April CPI eases to 4.2% as core inflation hits 2024 high
Australia’s consumer price index slipped to a 4.2% annual rise in April, missing the 4.4% consensus as a temporary fuel excise cut trimmed transport costs. At the same time, the trimmed‑mean core inflation gauge rose to 3.4% year‑over‑year, the highest level since late‑2024, keeping pressure on the Reserve Bank of Australia’s inflation target.
Ukraine Deploys Units to Intercept Targets in Middle East
Ukraine has deployed interceptor units to five Middle Eastern countries to protect critical and civilian infrastructure from missile threats. The move was announced by Security Council Secretary Rustem Umerov after a regional visit, emphasizing an immediate operational presence. Kyiv is also working to expand the coverage area of these units, indicating a broader security footprint. The deployment underscores Ukraine’s push to monetize its air‑defence expertise while forging new strategic ties beyond Europe.
Trump’s Southeast Asia Policy Turns Allies Into Economic Targets
America’s foreign policy toward Southeast Asia under Trump has been: 1. Slap them with the some of the highest tariff rates in the world 2. Launch Section 301 investigations of their trade practices 3. Create a global energy and commodities crisis that...
'We Were Attacked': Hormuz Sailors in Perilous Waters
Sailors in a WeChat group reported that the bulk carrier "Ocean Pretty," sailing under a Barbadian flag, was struck by gunfire and rocket‑launcher fire while attempting to transit the Strait of Hormuz. The crew said no one was injured, but...
Steady Today, Uncertain Tomorrow: Iran War Tests US Resilience
The Iran war has so far left the US economy largely intact, with the Atlanta Fed nowcasting a 2.1% annualized Q1 GDP rise and the Dallas Fed’s Weekly Economic Index at 2.6%, suggesting stable activity through mid‑March. While global oil...
Tariff Refunds Still Months Away as Court Presses for Progress
A U.S. Court of International Trade order mandated Customs and Border Protection to refund tariffs imposed under the International Emergency Economic Powers Act. CBP’s filing on March 19 reveals its new Consolidated Administration and Processing of Entries (CAPE) system is...
WATCH: The 35% Recession Warning Markets Are Ignoring — with Ed Yardeni
In this episode, host Scott Yalloway recounts his surreal experience at the Vanity Fair Oscars after‑party before diving into a focused interview with Ed Yardeni, president of Yardeni Research. Yardeni explains why his team raised the probability of a U.S....
Money Printing Steals
AI Productivity Stolen By Inflation 1. AI expands the supply of goods and services. That should mean lower prices for you—a pure win. 2. But that win gets stolen. The system prints more money, inflating prices to "offset" the natural drop....
Jerusalem's Muslims Despair as War Shuts Al-Aqsa Mosque for Eid
Israel shut access to Jerusalem’s Al‑Aqsa Mosque and other holy sites amid the Israel‑Iran war, forcing Eid worshippers to pray at the city gates. The closure, imposed for security reasons, marks the first time the mosque has been barred during...
USD Rebounds After Over‑reaction; Short Positions Risky This Weekend
$USD was bought aggressively on a hawkish read of Powell's press conference on Wed and was sold harder yesterday in what seems to be an overreaction to the ECB and BOE. It has come back bid. Who wants...
Government Unveils US $53 Million RELIEF Scheme to Support Exporters Amid Middle East Disruptions
The Indian government launched the Resilience & Logistics Intervention for Export Facilitation (RELIEF) scheme, allocating Rs 497 crore (US $53 million) to shield exporters from Middle‑East conflict‑driven disruptions. The program, administered by the Export Credit Guarantee Corporation, offers extended export obligations, stable insurance premiums,...
Battle for Hormuz Shakes Markets as Oil Swings and Treasury Yields Climb
A US‑led air and naval campaign targeting Iranian forces aims to reopen the Strait of Hormuz, a critical oil conduit, prompting heightened market volatility. Oil prices have swung as traders balance expectations of increased output against the risk of prolonged...
Iran Developing a ‘Vetting System’ for Strait of Hormuz Transit: Report
Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps is rolling out a vetting and registration system to manage ship transits through a newly‑established safe corridor in the Strait of Hormuz. Vessels must disclose ownership and cargo details in advance, and at least nine...
Eye of the Storm?
The episode examines how recent geopolitical tensions are driving a fresh surge in energy prices, with the US and allies pledging to boost supply while Qatar reports that 17% of its gas output has been knocked offline by airstrikes, potentially...
WTO Deadlock in Yaounde Pushes EU Toward CPTPP Partnership, Threatens Multilateral Trade Rules
At the WTO ministerial in Yaounde, trade ministers could not agree on a reform roadmap, prompting the European Union to consider a parallel track with CPTPP members. Swedish Trade Minister Benjamin Dousa warned that failure would drive the EU toward...
Conditions for US-Russia Rapprochement Fall Into Place
Seven months after the historic Alaska summit, the United States issued a 30‑day waiver permitting limited sales of sanctioned Russian crude, a move aimed at offsetting oil shortages caused by Iran’s blockade of the Strait of Hormuz. The waiver signals...
Trump Mulls Kharg Island Takeover to Force Iran to Open Hormuz Strait, Axios Reports
The Trump administration is reportedly weighing a plan to occupy or blockade Iran’s Kharg Island, the nation’s primary oil export hub, in order to pressure Tehran into reopening the Strait of Hormuz. The proposal, cited by Axios from four informed...
Silence Can Be an Epic Folly: A Response to Shashi Tharoor
Muqtedar Khan challenges Shashi Tharoor’s defence of India’s diplomatic silence on the West Asian war, arguing that quietism erodes India’s credibility and strategic autonomy. He cites past instances where silence cost India, from the 1956 Hungary crisis to recent maritime...
Kindiki Invites China VP Han to Kenya
Chinese Vice President Han Zheng will travel to Kenya, South Africa and Seychelles from March 22 to 30, at the invitation of Kenya Deputy President Kithure Kindiki and his counterparts. The high‑level tour is framed as a key exchange to...
Selective Outrage Won’t End the Iran War
The UN Security Council issued a resolution condemning Iran’s retaliatory strikes on Bahrain, Qatar, Saudi Arabia and the UAE, labeling them a breach of international law. The article argues the vote is one‑sided, focusing on protecting Gulf oil flows and...
China-Europe Rail Freight Surges by 25% in January and February, Even Before Iran War
China Railway reported a 25% year‑on‑year increase in TEU volume on the China‑Europe rail corridor during January‑February 2026, moving 352,100 TEU across 3,501 train trips. Train frequency rose 31.7% compared with the same period last year, reversing a 2025 decline...
The Real Fallout From Trump’s Tariffs
In 2025 the United States imposed sweeping import tariffs intended to shield domestic producers. The measures inadvertently lowered costs for foreign rivals, creating a mixed‑bag of winners and losers among U.S. firms. Small businesses, often highlighted in political rhetoric, bore...
Global Rates: Global DM Swap Spread Outlook
In this episode of At Any Rate, JP Morgan’s global rate strategy team breaks down recent dynamics in developed‑market (DM) swap spreads, highlighting how central‑bank policy expectations and technical factors drive the curves across the US, Germany, the UK, Japan and...
Rates Likely Hike Unless Growth Collapses, Says Sell‑Side
And the sell side rolls in. April is punchy; I doubt they will see anything in the March HICP that scares them relative to the baseline. But the message is clear. Unless growth collapses they will hike, I think justifying...
US Fuels Chaos to Cripple China AI, Bind Europe
Really recommend this interview between @freddiesayers and energy expert @HelenHet20 where Helen lays out why markets may be wrong in assuming things will return to normal once Iran is neutralised. The chaos may be the strategy. And whichever way you...
Japan, US Announce Energy Projects, Critical Minerals Action Plan
Japan and the United States announced a $73 billion Japanese investment in U.S. energy infrastructure, including up to $40 billion for small modular reactors (SMRs) built by GE Vernova Hitachi in Tennessee and Alabama. Additional natural‑gas generation projects in Pennsylvania ($17 billion) and Texas ($16 billion)...
US Chooses Between Lifting Iran Sanctions or Invading Kharg
On the one hand, the US is considering lifting sanctions on Iran's oil. On the other, the US e is considering invading Kharg. It's one or the other. Either the US understands the MAD dynamic at play with energy flows...
Europe/UK Rate Hike Likely: 12% April Odds
Europe/UK back at it, forcing their rate hikes on us. April hike odds 12%... more than just noise
Making Sense of the Bank of Canada Interest Rate Decision on March 18, 2026
The Bank of Canada kept its overnight rate at 2.25% on March 18, marking a third consecutive hold. Inflation slowed to 1.8% in February, still under the 2% target, while the labour market remains weak. The decision reflects caution amid...
Oil Embargo, Not Escalation, Is War’s Off‑ramp
This war needs an off-ramp. That isn't military escalation or just declaring "mission accomplished." Instead, it's an embargo of Iran's oil. That'll throw Iran into chaos and the upside for oil prices is limited given how much they've already risen... https://t.co/t20Z7S85OZ...
Swaps Market Overprices Central Bank Rate Hikes
The swaps mkt discounted slightly more than BOE 3 hikes this year. Surely that is exaggerated. The mkt has 70 bp of ECB hikes discounted. Despite the hawks trying to outflank Lagarde's moderate tone, that too seems a...
Government Borrowing Higher than Expected in February
UK government borrowing surged to £14.3 bn in February, the second‑largest monthly deficit on record. The rise exceeded economists' forecasts of £8.8 bn, driven by higher spending that outstripped an increase in tax receipts, including debt‑interest costs. The Office for National Statistics...
Middle East Conflict Set to Spike Retail Prices, Deter Shoppers
How The Middle East Conflict Will Push Retail Prices Up And Consumers Into Retreat via @forbes https://t.co/vHxGN0OKET
Bank Lending Shifts: NBFIs Grow 60%, Corporates
Since 2019, bank lending to non-bank financial institutions (NBFI) has grown by nearly 60% vs only about 20% to non-financial corporations. Divergence has widened since mid-2022 when corporate lending stagnated while NBFI lending continued to rise steadily https://t.co/QEUhoq4feU
FTSE 100 Live: Gilt Yields Soar, Bank of England Rate Hike Fears Grow, Wetherspoon Shares Tumble
UK gilt yields surged to just under 5%, the highest level since 2008, as markets price in expectations of Bank of England rate hikes. Unilever entered talks to sell its foods business to McCormick, while discount retailer The Works saw...
Europe’s Structural Gaps Threaten Productivity and Growth
The Draghi & Letta reports' diagnosis was stark: Europe is falling behind in productivity growth; Single Market remains fragmented; capital markets incomplete; innovation & scale financing insufficient. These are structural weaknesses, not cyclical ones. https://t.co/vne95qESQS
UK Yield Peaks 2008 High Amid Rising Oil Prices
Key UK yield hits the highest level since 2008 as oil prices climb https://t.co/pWaz7E1WOL https://t.co/boVD8nEW6E
Work From Home, Avoid Air Travel to Deal with Higher Energy Prices, IEA Says
The International Energy Agency (IEA) has urged governments, businesses and households to adopt demand‑side measures such as working from home, lowering highway speed limits and avoiding air travel to cushion consumers from soaring oil prices triggered by the US‑Israel war...
April ECB Rate Hike Possible if Data Warrants
Makhlouf says an April ECB hike is possible if data signal there’s a need https://t.co/zEOl2Ko48A via @flacqua @jenniduggan @livfletcher_ https://t.co/IHW9dxYRHQ
CBDCs Could Undermine Bank Deposits and Credit Creation
By giving households direct access to central bank money in digital form, central bank digital currencies (CBDC) is frequently said to threaten bank deposits, disrupt credit creation, and shift seigniorage from commercial banks to the public sector. https://t.co/B04PPjhu5q
South Korea Flags Uncertainty From Qatar LNG Plant Damage, but Downplays Supply Concerns
Iranian attacks crippled 17% of Qatar's LNG export capacity, forcing QatarEnergy to declare force majeure on long‑term contracts for up to five years. South Korea, the world’s third‑largest LNG importer, downplays supply risks, noting its Qatari share is only about...
Canada 5‑Year Yield Surges to 14‑Month High
it's 6am. i'm drinking black coffee. a @tradingview alert just buzzed in my pocket and appeared on my screen to tell me the Canada 5-year yield just broke out to 14-month highs > ~3.1%... 🧐 cool. https://t.co/IHj3aa1dV0
ECB Baseline Assumes Two Hikes; Worse Scenarios Need More
Subtle but important point. The ECB's baseline incorporates nearly two rate hikes. The adverse and severe scenarios use the same assumptions, and thus may require more than two hikes to bring inflation back to target. Only makes things sligthly less...
How Global Conflict Affects Your Finances in Canada
The article outlines how the ongoing Middle East conflict is already rippling through the Canadian economy, pushing gasoline and grocery prices higher, unsettling stock markets, and keeping mortgage rates elevated. It highlights broader effects such as tighter job security, more...
JPM Predicts Back-to-Back ECB and BOE Rate Hikes
JPM woke up this Friday morning and chose violence ... looking for back-to-back hikes from both the ECB and BOE.
US Policy Enables Chinese Firms to Buy Sanctioned Russian Oil
US government policy helps Chinese state owned oil companies buy sanctioned Russian crude wasn't on my prediction list for this year. https://t.co/JFPLk4VSxF
ECB Would Need April Hike If Price Outlook Sours, Nagel Says
European Central Bank Governing Council member Joachim Nagel warned that the ECB could be forced to raise interest rates as early as April if inflationary pressures intensify, particularly due to the ongoing Iran war. He indicated that a deteriorating medium‑term...
EU Faces Prolonged Energy Crunch After Qatar Disruption
EU leaders confront multi-year energy squeeze after Qatar hit https://t.co/VJQeTgB0l1 via @johnainger @E_Krukowska @donatopmancini https://t.co/Res6oTlW0s
BISTRO: A “ChatGPT” For Time Series
Researchers Batuhan Koyuncu, Byeungchun Kwon, Marco Jacopo Lombardi, Fernando Perez‑Cruz and Hyun Song Shin unveiled BISTRO, a transformer‑based model designed to forecast macroeconomic time series. Trained on the Bank for International Settlements' extensive macro data, BISTRO acts like a ChatGPT...
Trump’s Chaos Drives Europe to Forge Ties with China
Chaos unleashed by Trump has Europeans building bridges with China https://t.co/pFSYzBf1W0 via @jendeben @ArneDelfs https://t.co/jlniO6pJgx
Singapore’s 2026 Budget: A Good Time for Surpluses
Singapore’s 2026 budget projects a modest SG$4 billion surplus, continuing the fiscal upside that began with a SG$10.5 billion surplus in 2025 after revenue rose 13 percent year‑over‑year. The government earmarked $6 billion each for Changi Airport’s expansion and the National Productivity Fund, which...