Today's Global Economy Pulse
Australia's April CPI eases to 4.2% as core inflation hits 2024 high
Australia’s consumer price index slipped to a 4.2% annual rise in April, missing the 4.4% consensus as a temporary fuel excise cut trimmed transport costs. At the same time, the trimmed‑mean core inflation gauge rose to 3.4% year‑over‑year, the highest level since late‑2024, keeping pressure on the Reserve Bank of Australia’s inflation target.
Nigeria Faces Iran War Oil Price Conundrum
Nigeria’s oil revenues are set to surge as the Iran‑Ukraine war pushes crude above $100 a barrel, a windfall for the country’s export‑driven economy. Yet the nation still imports most refined fuels, so higher global prices translate into steeper pump prices and generator costs for households. President Bola Tinubu, campaigning for a second term, must balance the fiscal boost with the political risk of a cost‑of‑living backlash tied to his fuel‑subsidy removal. The administration is betting on targeted cash‑transfer programs rather than reinstating subsidies to cushion the poorest.
Yields, Bitcoin Up; Risk Assets Down—Macro Puzzle
What does it all mean? Why are yields and Bitcoin higher while risk assets are down and the dollar is bid? I take you back to the correlation matrix (below). Is it all just technical or is there a larger...
Rate Hikes Now Start From a Higher Baseline
If we are now about to enter a Central Bank rate rising period, it's worth considering we are in a very different place to the last rate rising period. Back a few years ago interest rates were artificially low and...
Africa’s Strategic Moment: Turning the Iran–USA–Israel Crisis Into Continental Opportunity
The recent Iran‑USA‑Israel escalation, highlighted by Operation Epic Fury and Iran’s closure of the Strait of Hormuz, has halted the flow of roughly 20 million barrels of oil daily, unsettling global energy markets. The disruption creates a strategic opening for Africa...
Bond Yields Surge Globally, Curve Bears Flattening
Global bond yields continue to climb: the UK 10-year has touched 5%, while the German Bund has crossed 3% and the US stands at 4.36%. Compounding the warning signs for the global economy, this comes amid an ongoing bear flattening...
Grim Week in Review
Industrial production nudged up 0.2% in February, marking a modest 1.4% year‑over‑year gain, a small but positive signal for the NBER recession gauges. Homebuilder confidence ticked higher in March yet remains historically low, with 37% of builders cutting prices. Gasoline...
UK Economy in Peril as Growth Forecast Slashed in Half
Oxford Economics slashed its UK GDP growth forecast to 0.4% from 0.9%, half the OBR’s estimate. The downgrade reflects rising oil and gas prices after the Iran‑Israel conflict, which keep interest rates high and increase business costs. Analysts warn that...
Hong Kong Should Use ‘Safe Haven’ Status to Draw Capital From Gulf: Agency Chief
InvestHK director Alpha Lau urged Hong Kong to leverage its safe‑haven reputation to attract capital fleeing the Middle East conflict, noting a shift of firms from Dubai to the city. She highlighted growing interest from Gulf high‑net‑worth individuals and sovereign...
China’s Rare Earth Magnet Exports to the US Keep Falling as Europe Gains
China’s shipments of rare‑earth permanent magnets to the United States fell 22.5% year‑on‑year in January‑February 2026, marking the seventh consecutive month of decline. The US now accounts for just 9.2% of China’s magnet exports, slipping to the third‑largest buyer behind...
Hurdles in Persian Gulf Test Carriers Moving Stranded Asian Cargo From India
Container lines are scrambling to move 40,000‑50,000 TEUs that have been temporarily stored at Indian ports toward the Middle East. Nhava Sheva alone has discharged roughly 25,000 TEUs, creating a bottleneck as carriers seek shuttle capacity at Gulf gateways. Alternative...
Tariffs and Economic Uncertainty: Why There’s Still Reason for Optimism
U.S. tariffs have narrowed the trade deficit with China from roughly $290 billion to $202 billion, while shifting import volumes toward Vietnam, Taiwan, India and Mexico. The policy has spurred “origin‑washing,” where Chinese goods are mislabeled to evade duties, complicating enforcement. Manufacturing...
A Seventh Central Bank Interest Rate Cut in Russia
On March 20 2026 the Central Bank of Russia trimmed its benchmark rate by 50 basis points to 15.0%, the seventh reduction since the October 2024 peak of 21%. The cumulative easing amounts to six percentage points, the deepest policy shift in over two...
Lifting Sanctions Boosts Iran's Oil Profits, Not Global Prices
Iranian oil has been sanctioned for many years. The 140 million barrels he is referring to are part of the "dark fleet" that has been shipping Iranian oil to Asia (mainly China) for years. Iran gets money for oil, and...
Kharg Island Tension Could Trigger Market Shock Soon
🚨 THE MARKET IS ONE ISLAND AWAY FROM RELIEF AND CHAOS US is quietly considering lifting Iran sanctions but behind the scenes? There's talk of something far more aggressive. And it all comes down to one tiny island in the Persian Gulf...
Weekend Reading and MB Media Appearances
Recent coverage underscores a convergence of fiscal and energy pressures in both the United States and Australia. In the U.S., the national debt has breached $39 trillion, while President Trump’s hard‑line stance on Iran and rising oil prices are being linked...
Middle East Energy Infrastructure Strikes and European Power Markets: Rising Power Prices, Stable Credit Profiles
Recent U.S., Israeli, and Iranian strikes on Middle East oil and gas infrastructure have sharply lifted European natural‑gas prices. Because gas‑fired plants often set marginal electricity rates, merchant power prices across Europe are expected to rise in the near term....
IMF Warns Sustained Oil Price Surge Could Reignite Inflation and Curb Growth
The International Monetary Fund warned that oil and gas prices staying above $100 a barrel for a year could add 40 basis points to global inflation and trim output by up to 0.2%. The alert follows Brent and WTI breaching...
China’s Russian Oil Imports Spike in Early 2026, but Iran War Changes Outlook
China’s imports of discounted Russian crude surged to 21.8 million tonnes in January‑February 2026, a 40.9% year‑on‑year increase, while the dollar value rose only 5.8% due to steep discounts. Russian oil now makes up more than one‑fifth of China’s total crude...
Malaysia Cracks Trump’s Tariff Wall
Malaysia announced it is terminating its customs agreement with the United States after a Supreme Court ruling declared the IEEPA‑based tariffs illegal. The original pact imposed a flat 19% tariff on most Malaysian exports, a rate now effectively cut in...
Feds Waller: If Oil Stays High for Months on End, at some Point It Bleeds Into Inflation
Federal Reserve Governor Christopher Waller warned that a prolonged oil price surge could seep into core inflation, making any shock more than a transitory blip. He noted that while structural inflation is edging toward the Fed’s 2% target, tariffs are...
Fed Governor Waller Balks at Rate Cut Amid Inflation Worries
Fed governor Chris Waller to CNBC's Steve Liesman: I was ready to dissent for a rate cut after the February jobs report came out. But the inflation picture is looking worse and has become more of a concern because the Strait...
Serbia Secures US Sanctions Waiver for Its NIS Oil Firm, Energy Minister Says
Serbia secured a U.S. Treasury waiver extending sanctions relief for the Russian‑owned Naftna Industrija Srbije (NIS) until April 17, 2026, allowing continued crude oil imports amid the war on Iran. The waiver comes as Serbia imposed a ban on crude and...
Oil Whipsaws as War Risk and Emergency Supply Measures Collide
Oil prices swung sharply this week as escalating war risk in the Middle East collided with a series of emergency supply measures. WTI fell to $94.13, down 3.98%, after traders weighed tanker delays in the Strait of Hormuz against strong...
The Race to Stabilize Oil Markets as the Iran War Expands
The Iran‑Israel conflict is spilling into global oil markets as strikes target both the Hormuz corridor and Iran’s Kharg Island export hub. U.S. officials have responded with a Jones Act waiver, Strategic Petroleum Reserve drawdowns, and the prospect of releasing...
Dollar Mixed, Equities Down, Bond Yields Higher, and Mood Remains Fearful
The U.S. dollar posted mixed moves, gaining against the yen and won while slipping versus the euro, sterling and Canadian dollar. U.S. Treasury yields rose five basis points, outpacing modest increases in Japan, Spain, Switzerland and Germany, while all four...
Friday's Must-Read: Finance Turmoil, Political
10 Friday AM Reads -Finance Bros to Tech Bros: Don't Mess With My Bloomberg Terminal -Bond Traders No Longer Price In Any Chance of Fed Cut in 2026 -Demand destruction has begun -Trump Wants Powell Out. Powell Is Digging In -Concierge Nation: Welcome to White-Glove...
Suppressing Price Adjustments Fuels Future Volatility
I'm a big advocate for stabilization policies generally, but.... The more you try to play games to stave off fundamental price adjustments altogether, the nastier they can get as time goes by. Could end up adding more volatility than what you've...
Air Cargo Backlogs Build as Mid East Disruption Cuts Capacity and Scrambles Networks
Air cargo backlogs are mounting as Middle East airspace closures have stripped roughly 20% of global air‑freight capacity, equivalent to over 500,000 tonnes. Qatar Airways Cargo has resumed limited freighter services under a temporary authorisation, while other regional carriers operate...
Inflation Spikes Fast; Real Stability only when Jobs Slip
inflation shows up on your screen much quicker than financial stability tremors and layoffs. hawk talk out of the gate is easy; hawk walk when UnE is up a percentage point and rising, not so much
Fed Must Cut Rates as Oil‑Driven Recession Looms
Now powell and Fed will be forced to do an emergency rate cut and be late as high oil prices start slowing down economy into recession.
FOMC Hawkishness Index Surges After Powell’s Press Conference
It'll be interesting to see how this looks over the next week, as we get more post-FOMC Fedspeak. But my proprietary measure of FOMC hawkishness climbed even further after Powell's press conference. https://t.co/lNilk5T2yz
Single‑mandate Central Banks Are Trapped, Forced to Hike
This week we unpack just how trapped central banks are, especially single mandate central banks who are forced to hike into this shock. Shit is not great yo
Markets Delay US‑Iran Ceasefire as Recession Fears Grow
The prediction markets are pushing out expectations of a US-Iran #ceasefire further and further... It's not unrelated that expectations of a #recession are creeping up at the same time... https://t.co/oFshabOLCJ
US Debt Swells $2.8T Since July, Near $40T
The US National Debt has now increased by $2.8 trillion since the Debt Ceiling was raised last July. The Federal Government continues to borrow from our future to spend money like drunken sailors today. Next stop: $40 trillion... https://t.co/rtXuDORPwa
Ireland Outperforms Europe on Iran War Risk Exposure
Irish economy in better position than European peers on Iran war risk, Makhlouf says https://t.co/lomrlc1AAE via @livfletcher_ https://t.co/T1sVPBtbzJ
Extended Hormuz Closure Threatens Sovereign Debt, Consumer Credit
If Hormuz stays closed another 3-4 weeks, it all begins to crumble...into an already-teetering global sovereign debt problem & consumer credit problem. Based on what I'm hearing, it is highly likely Hormuz will remain closed for at least another 3-4 weeks. Let's...
Local Gilt Issues Can Lift Global Yields
Price is set on the margin. One underappreciated problem n today's global fixed income markets is that the biggest participants (bank, insco, pension) are indifferent among G10 sovereigns. Local problems relatively small market like UK Gilts can then force global...
War’s Short‑term Impact, yet Markets Thrive Long‑term
Wars can move markets in the short run, as they are today. But over the long run, stock returns are driven by economic growth and corporate earnings. Since 1941 the world has seen almost constant conflict. And yet, $1 in the S&P 500...
Oil Futures Signal Long-Term Impact From Iran War
It's not just a blip. Increasingly oil futures markets are suggesting that the Iran war is going to have (or has already had) effects that will last for years. https://t.co/j23M3zH7AL
G10 Hawkish Policies Weigh on Dollar Strength
The reason the Dollar isn't stronger is because markets price a much more hawkish policy shift by central banks in the G10 compared to the Fed. That's moving rate differentials against the Dollar and tempering what otherwise would be an...
Waller Warns Oil Could Eventually Lift Core Inflation
Waller having his own personal Trichet moment: "oil can bleed through to core inflation at some point"
Hormuz Tensions Could Spike Oil Past $200, Triggering Long‑term Chaos
Reupping this as the continued Hormuz chaos seems increasingly likely to drive oil above $200/barrel, followed by years of hydrocarbon market chaos
Raising Rates over a Closed Oil Strait Is Absurd
There is nothing more idiotic than raising interest rates because a strait with oil is closed.
Euro Summit Highlights Growing Economic Uncertainty Amid Middle East Turmoil
Glad to join leaders at last night’s Euro Summit in Brussels. We discussed the current economic situation in light of events in the Middle East, which has made the outlook significantly more uncertain. https://t.co/bHxScsvXzq
US May Permit Iran Oil Sales to Boost Supply
Bessent: U.S. May Allow Iran to Sell Oil in Order to Increase Supply https://t.co/cJQjJqRa54 #maritime #maritime-news
Canada 5‑Year Yields Surge, Hinting at Rate Hikes
Canada 5-year year yields... looking poised to move higher as they break to 14+ month highs... rate hikes on the horizon to battle inflationary pressures? https://t.co/3jtEuhVfkZ
CNY Posts Lowest USD Fix Since April 2023
PBOC set the $USD fix today at its lowest level since April 2023. Since the war began, $CNY is the fourth best EM currency, trailing HKD and two high yielders in Latam. YTD, CNY it has only been bested by...
Oil Prices Soar Despite Limited Infrastructure Damage, Demand at Risk
Prices have surged but physical oil infrastructure damage remains limited & still some slack in system. For a disruption this large, prices eventually need to rise high enough to actually destroy demand—as parts of crude & product mkts are starting...
Markets Unfazed as Iran Eases Hormuz Oil Flow
Markets are shrugging off Middle East tensions as oil disruptions prove less severe than feared. Iran's selective passage through Hormuz is easing supply concerns. 🟢 Open https://t.co/I5Gu8mRO2F
US Chooses Between Lifting Iran Sanctions or Invading Kharg
On the one hand, the US is considering lifting sanctions on Iran's oil. On the other, the US e is considering invading Kharg. It's one or the other. Either the US understands the MAD dynamic at play with energy flows...