Today's Global Economy Pulse
China's producer price index rose 3.9% year‑on‑year in May, the strongest increase since July 2022, driven by a 10% jump in fuel and power costs and a 22% surge in non‑ferrous metal prices. Consumer inflation eased to 1.2% YoY, below expectations, highlighting a split between rising wholesale prices and subdued retail inflation.
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Inflation Holds Firm at 3% in February
The UK Consumer Price Index (CPI) held steady at a 3% year‑over‑year increase in February, unchanged from January. Monthly inflation also remained at 0.4%, mirroring the same pace recorded a year earlier. Clothing prices were the primary upward force, while...
UK February Inflation: Stable Headline Rate Masks Rising Retail and Housi...
UK inflation held at 3% in February 2026, matching expectations and marking the lowest level since March 2025. While the headline rate was unchanged, clothing and footwear prices rose 0.9% and housing costs ticked up to 4.6%, indicating emerging retail...
Yannis Stournaras: The Greek Economy Ten Years After the Crisis - Lessons for National Economies, the Eurozone and Future Challenges
Greek central banker Yannis Stournaras reflected on a decade after Greece’s debt crisis, highlighting how fiscal consolidation, debt restructuring and deep structural reforms restored macro‑economic stability and turned a primary deficit into a surplus. He noted that the banking sector’s...
Elizabeth Genia: Presentation of the March 2026 Economic Outlook, Inflation and Monetary Policy
The Bank of Papua New Guinea presented its March 2026 outlook, projecting GDP growth of about 3% after a strong 5.3% expansion in 2025 and forecasting headline inflation near 4% despite a fresh Middle‑East energy shock. The Monetary Policy Committee kept...
India’s Total Exports Rise to USD 714.73 Billion Amid Global Uncertainty
India’s merchandise and services exports rose 5.26% year‑over‑year to $714.73 billion in April‑January FY 2025‑26, extending a 6.9% compound annual growth rate since 2021. The surge reflects a blend of traditional strengths and technology‑driven sectors, underpinned by the Foreign Trade Policy 2023...
Chiara Scotti: Financial Stability and Regulation in an Age of Transformation - How Economic Research Can Help Reorient Navigation
At the fifth joint conference of Banca d'Italia, Bocconi University, EIEF and CEPR, Chiara Scotti highlighted how the 2023 banking turmoil exposed stark differences in deposit dynamics across institutions. She argued that digitalization and the rise of non‑bank intermediaries have...
Follow the Money: Finance and the Future of Allied Economic Statecraft
Finance is emerging as the core instrument of modern economic statecraft, linking public priorities with private capital to shape critical sectors such as defense, infrastructure, manufacturing, and AI. The generative‑AI boom highlights how massive, capital‑intensive projects—like a one‑gigawatt data center...
Israel Strikes Tehran as Trump Says US Negotiating to End War
Israel launched a missile strike on Tehran while President Trump announced that the United States is negotiating a cease‑fire with Iran. The news sent crude oil prices plunging more than 6%, before partially recovering on doubts about the report’s veracity....
Steel Companies Gear up for Further Hike in Prices
Indian steel producers are preparing for another price increase as U.S. attacks on Iran lift coking coal, ferro‑alloy and shipping costs. Domestic hot‑rolled coil prices have risen 23 percent to roughly $650‑$700 per tonne, up from about $566 a month earlier....
EU FTA Holds some Benefit for Grain, Oilseed Sector Bar Rice
The Australia‑EU free trade agreement eliminates tariffs on key grains – wheat, barley and wheat starch – saving up to $166‑$392 per tonne, and grants a $70 million duty‑free wheat‑gluten quota. Canola oil, machinery and chemicals also become tariff‑free, while ethanol...
Oil Prices Drop 5% Amid Hopes of Ceasefire in the War in West Asia, Brent Below $100
Oil prices plunged about 5% on Wednesday as optimism grew that a US‑Iran cease‑fire could be negotiated, pushing Brent crude below $100 per barrel and WTI to $88.31. The decline follows a recent peak near $119, but ongoing strikes and...
Food Inflation Update Feb 2026
Food inflation in February 2026 shows a fragmented pattern, with red meat prices driving overall increases while fresh produce prices decline. Beef rose 7.9% year‑over‑year and lamb/goat 6.8%, whereas vegetables, fruit and eggs fell 1‑2% annually. Monthly data reveal a...
Trump‑Iran Talks Spark Hormuz Oil Fears, Lift Prices
Trump Iran talks revived Strait of Hormuz oil flow fears and pushed global energy prices higher. https://www.metalnomist.com/2026/03/trump-iran-talks-put-strait-of-hormuz.html
Saudi Red Sea Exports Avert Major Hormuz Oil Disruption
Saudi oil exports from its Western ports on the Red Sea represented the most immediate and largest mitigation of the Hormuz crisis. Logically, any oil transported via pipelines from east to west and loaded at the Red Sea ports must be...
Electricity Prices Return to Reality
Australia’s February 2026 CPI rose 3.7% year‑over‑year, a modest dip from January’s 3.8%. The headline increase was driven primarily by a 7.2% surge in housing costs, while food and non‑alcoholic beverages rose 3.1% and recreation and culture climbed 4.1%. A...
Markets Overestimate Rate Hikes; PMI Says Otherwise
The markets now think the ECB and BOE will now hike rates by at least 50bps apiece, and the RBA will hike by at least another 50bps on top of the 50bps they've done already. The PMI data says otherwise....
US Navy's Proximity Stalls Commercial Traffic in Hormuz
And Trump just explained why there’s virtually no commercial shipping through the Strait of Hormuz right now. The Lincoln is ~600 miles off Iran’s coast. That gives it several minutes of warning time, plus an entire air wing, three destroyers, a...
Lamborghinis Stranded in Sri Lanka as War Disrupts Asia's Used-Car Trade
The U.S. and Israeli strikes on Iran have choked the Strait of Hormuz, causing severe port congestion that left more than 500 Japanese‑exported cars idle at sea before finally off‑loading in Sri Lanka’s Hambantota port ten days late. Japanese firm...
SPR Release Trivial, Hormuz Shock Permanently Alters Oil Market
SPR releases are a rounding error against a 10–17 mb/d disruption, says @ericnuttall Paper oil is still pretending everything’s fine. Even if this ends tomorrow, you’re left with a $10+ security premium Damaged infrastructure takes years, not weeks to recover This is a...
Gift Nifty Signals Strong Start as Trump’s Iran Talks Boost Global Sentiment
Indian markets kicked off strong on Wednesday as the Gift Nifty rose to 23,170, roughly 100 points higher at the open. The rally was spurred by President Donald Trump’s remarks suggesting imminent US‑Iran negotiations, which buoyed global risk appetite. Crude...
Australia Politics Live: Treasurer Jim Chalmers Responds to Latest Inflation Figures
Treasurer Jim Chalmers addressed Australia’s latest inflation data, noting that headline CPI eased to a 3.7% annual rate in February while underlying inflation slipped to 3.3%. The figures suggest price pressures are moderating after a brief pause before the Iran‑Israel...
Goldman Sachs Lifts US Recession Odds to 30% as Oil Shock Fuels Risk
Goldman Sachs raised its forecast for a U.S. recession in 2026 to a 30% probability, up from 25%, citing a confluence of geopolitical tension, higher oil prices and waning fiscal support. The revised outlook is prompting corporations to tighten budgets...
Trump’s 15 Point Plan to Catastrophe
A report claims former President Donald Trump sent Iran a 15‑point peace proposal, though the full text remains undisclosed. The outlined items call for decommissioning key nuclear facilities, regulating enriched uranium stockpiles, ending Iran’s ballistic missile program, and halting support...
Eurozone Private‑Sector Output Slides to 10‑Month Low, Input Costs Surge
Eurozone private‑sector activity slipped to a ten‑month low in March, with the flash composite output index dropping to 50.5, below expectations. At the same time, input‑cost inflation accelerated to its strongest level in over three years, underscoring weakening domestic demand...
Africa’s 4.3% Growth Forecast Stumbles Over Power‑Infrastructure Gap
Fresh projections put Africa’s economy on a 4.3% expansion path in 2026, with East Africa hitting 5.8%, outpacing most developed markets. The surge is being throttled by chronic power‑infrastructure deficits that cost the continent billions each year.
Boao Forum Projects 4.5% Growth for Asia in 2026, Cementing Its Role as Global Engine
The Boao Forum for Asia released a report projecting a 4.5% expansion of the Asian economy in 2026, keeping the continent as the world’s primary growth engine. The outlook, unveiled at the annual Hainan summit, is expected to steer investment...
Slovenia Enacts EU’s First Fuel Rationing Amid Hormuz Blockade
Slovenia became the first EU member to impose fuel purchase limits after the Strait of Hormuz blockage triggered long lines and shortages. Private motorists can buy up to 50 liters a day, while companies are capped at 200 liters, with the army...
CERAWeek CEOs Warn of Oil Market Volatility as Iran-Israel War Keeps Hormuz Closed
At CERAWeek in Houston, Chevron CEO Mike Wirth, TotalEnergies chief Patrick Pouyanne and NNPC GCEO Bashir Ojulari warned that the Iran‑Israel war and the closure of the Strait of Hormuz are creating unprecedented volatility for oil and gas markets. Their...
U.S. Treasury Two‑Year Note Auction Draws $69 Bn with Weak 2.44 Bid‑to‑Cover Ratio
The U.S. Treasury auctioned $69 bn of two‑year notes on March 24, posting a high yield of 3.936% and a bid‑to‑cover ratio of 2.44, well under the ten‑auction average of 2.62. The soft demand underscores growing investor caution amid rising yields...
Blast Hits Texas Oil Refinery Amid Shifting Global Commodity Markets
A blast was reported at a Texas oil refinery, though details remain scarce. The incident comes as crude oil prices slipped on easing US‑Iran tensions, while India's coal consultancy CMPDI struggled to attract investors and turmeric prices fell sharply amid...
Australia’s Energy Vulnerability Is 20 Years in the Making
Australia’s strategic fuel reserves have dwindled to roughly 30 days of petrol, diesel and aviation fuel, far short of the International Energy Agency’s 90‑day benchmark. About 90 % of the nation’s refined fuels are now imported, exposing the country to supply...
Bank of Ghana Cuts Policy Rate to 14% as Cedi Slides, Defends Dual‑track Approach
The Bank of Ghana reduced its policy rate from 15.5% to 14% and said the move is part of a dual‑track monetary framework that balances cheaper credit with aggressive liquidity absorption. The central bank absorbed about GH₵17 bn in excess liquidity...
India's Private Sector PMI Slips to 3‑Year Low Amid Middle East War
HSBC's flash PMI shows India's private sector output index fell to 56.5 in March, the lowest level since October 2022. The slowdown is tied to the Middle East war, rising input costs and weaker domestic demand, raising concerns for investors...
GDP‑B: A Fresh Lens on Economic Well‑Being
Kevin Fox provides a terrific summary of GDP-B, a new way of measuring economic well-being
Countries Scramble for Fertilizer to Avert Food Crisis
Nations race to secure enough fertilizer and prevent a food crisis https://t.co/XNG35EquM6 via @parija_pratik @ilenapeng @ElThorn22 https://t.co/6wfySPHkym
US-Israeli Conflict Boosts Iran's Oil Sales and Prices
My take on @AJEnglish on how the US-Israeli war has backfired and is benefiting Iran: “Iran is getting more oil out, they’re selling it at higher prices, and at lower discounts than prior to the US-Israeli attacks.” https://t.co/ySeIcR0lFS
Turkey Tourism Dips as Middle East Tensions Rise
#TurkeyWatch 🇹🇷: Foreign visitor arrivals dropped 2.1% y/y in February. Turkey’s tourism sector is paying the price for the US-Israeli attack on Iran. TURKEY’S TOURIST OPERATORS SHOULD SEND A BILL FOR DAMAGES TO TRUMP & NETANYAHU. https://t.co/HORq6jRes2
India's Economy Crippled by Gulf Dependence Amid Iran War
#IndiaWatch 🇮🇳: As the Iranian war drags on, India takes an economic hit. Eighty percent of Indian gas imports, forty percent of Indian oil imports, and forty percent of India’s remittances depend on the Gulf. MODI SHOULD SEND TRUMP AND NETANYAHU A...
Asia Cuts LNG Imports to Free Gas for Europe
This is why there is so much focus on gas demand destruction 👇 Importers (particularly those in emerging Asia) will need to take less LNG to free-up more for Europe and other richer nations the longer Hormuz/Qatar is shut
OPEC+ March Crude Supply Hits 2020 Low
OPEC+ crude supply in March will be the lowest since the major production cuts during COVID lockdown in 2020.
March PMI Slump Hits Australia; US‑Iran Energy Crisis Spreads
Global composite activity PMIs for March universality dropped for the latest month's activity. Australia took the biggest hit. Japan and US still holding up the best relatively speaking. Overall, the US-Iran conflict's energy crisis is spilling over https://t.co/viZdRPVFN9
North Korean Won Plummets 61%, World's 2nd Worst Currency
On this week's Hanke's #CurrencyWatchlist, the North Korean won ranks as the WORLD'S 2ND WORST CURRENCY. The won has depreciated by 61% against the USD over the past year. THE COLLAPSE OF THE WON IS THE WORLD’S MOST UNREPORTED CURRENCY STORY. https://t.co/WiB50eaMz6
Venezuela Leads, North Korea Follows in Hyperinflation
#HankeInflationDashboard: By my measurements, this week's top 5 inflators are: 🇻🇪Venezuela — 634.0%/yr 🇰🇵North Korea — 160.7%/yr 🇮🇷Iran — 67.0%/yr 🇱🇾Libya — 55.3%/yr 🇨🇺Cuba — 48.9%/yr https://t.co/mNBJPXLGIg
Iran's Global Economic Power Outpaces Domestic Concerns
This will be nothing like VZ @HayekAndKeynes Iran is the most powerful country in the world right now. It controls the blood supply of the global economy. It's wildest dream wan't half this good It couldn't give a shit about its own people...
China Gas Prices Surge 20% Since Iran War
Gas prices in China jumped 20% since the war in Iran began. This is big. It affects 300 million drivers. CHAIRMAN XI SHOULD SEND A BILL FOR DAMAGES TO TRUMP & NETANYAHU. https://t.co/5AEwfc2iWb
Fed Says China's Exports Driven by Constrained Household Consumption
1/5 This new paper by the Fed concludes that China's export success stems from weak domestic demand "rooted in structural features of China's economy and financial system—particularly those that constrain household consumption." https://t.co/jplDeN5d6g
Record February Home Purchase Cancellations Hit 13.7%
42k US home purchases were canceled in February which equates to 13.7% of all homes under contract. That's the highest cancellation percentage for any February on record. https://t.co/QuxiWyB3TE
Relief Fails in Panic: Trump, IEA Miss Oil Reality
What Trump and the IEA Missed About the Oil Market: Relief Does Not Work When Markets Are in Panic Mode Daily Energy Report https://t.co/9c26JYBjru
Irreconcilable Demands Make Iran‑US Deal Impossible
Both sides want a deal Washington wants Iran to give up the things that define it Iran wants relief without giving up those things NO DEAL IS POSSIBLE on these terms. #Iran #Trump #Hormuz #Geopolitics #Diplomacy #MiddleEast #War #Strategy #Oil #IRGC https://t.co/cfX0dD9IzF