Today's Global Economy Pulse
Australia's April CPI eases to 4.2% as core inflation hits 2024 high
Australia’s consumer price index slipped to a 4.2% annual rise in April, missing the 4.4% consensus as a temporary fuel excise cut trimmed transport costs. At the same time, the trimmed‑mean core inflation gauge rose to 3.4% year‑over‑year, the highest level since late‑2024, keeping pressure on the Reserve Bank of Australia’s inflation target.
Milei Blasts Iran on Anniversary of Attack on Israeli Embassy
Argentine President Javier Milei denounced Iran at a ceremony marking the 34th anniversary of the 1992 bombing of the Israeli embassy in Buenos Aires. He reiterated Argentina’s support for the United States and Israel amid the ongoing US‑Israeli military campaign against Tehran launched on Feb. 28. An Argentine court in 2024 had ruled the embassy attack, along with the 1994 AMIA bombing, was ordered by Iran. Milei highlighted the strategic alliance with Israel and warned that terrorism cannot be negotiated.
Allies' Oil Shortage Fuels US Strait Standoff
It should be taken with a grain of salt when you hear European and Asian countries saying they won’t help to open the Strait. Majority of these countries are short oil and will face severe crises if they don’t act....
Energy Economics Monitor: March 2026 Update
Energy Intelligence’s March 2026 update highlights rapid AI integration across the world’s 50 largest energy firms, with national oil companies leading and three regional hubs emerging in North America, Europe and the Gulf. Simultaneously, the escalating US‑Israel‑Iran conflict is disrupting...
Deployment of ARG Tripoli, Betting on Hormuz Re-Opening
The U.S. Navy has transferred the Amphibious Ready Group (ARG) Tripoli, together with THAAD and Patriot air‑defense systems, from the Indo‑Pacific to the Middle East. Prediction‑market data show the probability of the Strait of Hormuz returning to normal traffic has...
The Goods Trade Deficit Adjusted for Gold
The latest balance‑of‑payments data shows that when the U.S. goods trade balance is adjusted for gold, the deficit expands beyond the headline figure. The red line in the chart, representing the gold‑adjusted balance, sits noticeably lower than the blue unadjusted...
Sinocism Live on US-China Relations with the FT’s Demetri Sevastopulo
In this live Sinocism episode, FT China correspondent Demetri Sevastopulo discusses the delayed Trump‑China summit, attributing the postponement to domestic political concerns and the ongoing Iran conflict rather than bilateral tensions. He outlines the key players shaping U.S. China policy...
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DIPLOMATIC RELATIONS: No Ambassador, No Problem — SA’s Unorthodox Approach to the US
President Cyril Ramaphosa has kept South Africa’s embassy in Washington without a formally appointed ambassador for over a year, opting to run the mission through Deputy Ambassador Thabo Thage as chargé d’affaires. Senior adviser Alistair Ruiters, based in Pretoria, has become the...
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Trump Says NATO's Refusal to Help on Iran Is "Very Foolish Mistake"
President Donald Trump criticized NATO allies for refusing to join the U.S.–Israeli military effort against Iran, calling the decision a “very foolish mistake.” He urged nations to help secure the Strait of Hormuz, where Iran’s attacks have threatened a key...
China Ramps Up Scrutiny of Meta’s Acquisition of Manus
China’s National Development and Reform Commission has summoned Meta and Manus executives to question the $2 billion acquisition of the Singapore‑based AI startup. The move appears aimed at penalising individuals linked to the deal and may include exit bans preventing Manus...
Carney Plans to Outspend Trudeau by Nearly $70 Billion: Study
Prime Minister Mark Carney’s 2025 budget will outspend the outgoing Trudeau government by roughly $68 billion over the 2025‑2030 period, according to a Fraser Institute analysis. The plan doubles projected deficits to $321.7 billion, compared with Trudeau’s $154.4 billion, and pushes total federal...
Clients Hope to Get Refunds From Tariffs
The Supreme Court invalidated tariffs imposed under the International Emergency Economic Powers Act, leaving importers entitled to refunds but without a clear administrative process. The Trump administration is developing an online portal for refund applications while simultaneously probing forced‑labor based...
Tomorrow's FOMC Meeting: Most Critical Decision Yet
Tomorrow will be the most imporant FOMC meeting of our lives Until the next one
Episode 48: What Conflict in the Middle East Means for Your Portfolio
In Episode 48, Alex Jung and Wesley Blight discuss how the recent Middle East conflict—particularly the direct confrontations involving the US, Israel, and Iran—affects investment portfolios. They explain that while energy prices and inflation expectations spike due to disrupted oil...
Japan’s Bull Market Takes Shape
In this episode, Shou Nakazawa explains how Prime Minister Sanae Takai‑ji’s conservative administration is reshaping Japan’s equity market through three structural pillars: heightened economic security and supply‑chain resilience, a sweeping AI and compute revolution, and massive infrastructure investment for national...
Oil Prices Top $103 as U.S. Allies Reluctant to Escort Tankers in Strait of Hormuz
Oil prices surged on Tuesday, with Brent climbing to $103.42 a barrel and U.S. crude reaching $96.21, reflecting a 2‑3% jump amid heightened geopolitical tension. President Donald Trump warned that NATO allies are unwilling to join a U.S.-led naval escort...
No Severe Shocks Despite Crises, Says Sitharaman as She Highlights India's Economic Strength
Finance Minister Nirmala Sitharaman told the Rajya Sabha that India’s economy has withstood the pandemic, supply‑chain strains, the Russia‑Ukraine war, and the current West Asia conflict without severe shocks. She highlighted the passage of the Appropriation Bill 2026, which adds...
How the Iran War Could Trigger a Global Credit Crunch
The Iran‑Israel war has shut the Strait of Hormuz, cutting off a vital source of petro‑capital that Gulf sovereigns traditionally channel into global finance. This disruption threatens the $1.4 trillion of assets held in UAE financial hubs and has already forced...
China Cannot Escape the Energy Shock
China is grappling with a global energy shock that has widened the price gap between its domestic fuel and the higher rates in neighboring Hong Kong. The disparity, driven by lingering subsidies and import dependence, prompts Hong Kong motorists to cross the...
Only Two of Three Oil, Fed, Inflation Scenarios Can Occur
The market is pricing in three things simultaneously: • Oil stays above $100 • Fed cuts rates • Inflation falls to 2% You can have two. Not all three. If oil wins → stagflation. If Fed capitulates → dollar collapses. If demand craters → recession. Every...
US May Abandon Hormuz, Destroy Iran’s Oil Infrastructure
Here is what I think will happen if USA can't keep strait of Hormuz open - I do think that USA will have a very low threshold for pain in the Gulf because Trump is elected on avoiding 'forever wars'....
House Subcommittee Hearing Focuses on WTO Reform as U.S. Agriculture Continues to Face Trade Challenges
The House Ways and Means trade subcommittee held a hearing on March 17 to examine WTO reform amid persistent challenges for U.S. agriculture. Chairman Adrian Smith urged the organization to address non‑tariff barriers that now limit market access. Former Trump...
Warflation: Unnamed Economic Threat Looms Ahead
The word warflation does not appear in any economics textbook. But it is the most accurate word for what is coming.
Coffee Break: Armed Madhouse – Distributed Deterrence
The article outlines a shift toward "distributed deterrence," where precision‑strike weapons such as cheap missiles and long‑range drones enable smaller states to threaten critical infrastructure far beyond their borders. Declining costs and mobile launch platforms make these capabilities accessible to...
Nissan Joins Toyota, Honda in Plans to Export U.S. Cars to Japan
Nissan announced it will begin exporting the Murano SUV, built in Smyrna, Tennessee, to Japan early next year, marking the first American‑made Nissan sold in Japan since the 1990s. The move follows recent regulatory changes that allow U.S.‑produced vehicles to...
U.S. Exploring Venezuelan Fertilizer Purchases
The U.S. Treasury is expanding sanction waivers to allow imports of Venezuelan fertilizer as part of a broader effort to curb soaring input costs for American farmers. The move follows comments from Ag Secretary Brooke Rollins that the administration is...
Gina Rinehart’s $2.4 Billion Rare Earth Fortune – by Tim Treadgold (Forbes Magazine – March 16, 2026)
Australian mining magnate Gina Rinehart’s rare‑earth holdings have surged to over $2.4 billion, driven by a global push to diversify away from China. The portfolio, once a modest side‑investment, now represents a significant portion of her $25 billion wealth. China still controls...
Trump’s Tariffs Have Cost Automakers Over $35 Billion So Far: Report
President Donald Trump’s import tariffs have imposed more than $35.4 billion in costs on automakers during the past year, according to Automotive News analysis. Japanese giant Toyota bears the heaviest burden at roughly $9.1 billion, while other foreign brands such as BMW,...
External Debt Relatively Manageable Compared to Previous Balance of Payments Crises
India’s external debt hovered at $746 billion by September 2025, translating to a 19% debt‑to‑GDP ratio—well below the peaks of the FY91 and FY13 crises. The debt‑service ratio remains modest at 6% of export earnings, while foreign‑exchange reserves cover 94% of total...
UK Steel Decoilers Bracing for 50pc Quota Cut
The UK Department for Business and Trade is poised to slash tariff‑rate quotas for steel imports by up to 50%, targeting hot‑rolled coil (HRC) and hot‑dip galvanized (HDG) products. Argus estimates the cuts would create annual shortfalls of roughly 488,000 t...
Major U.S. Ports Navigate Uncertainty as War with Iran Threatens Global S...
U.S. container ports are bolstering security and coping with sharply higher bunker‑fuel costs as the Iran‑Israel conflict escalates. While the Strait of Hormuz remains largely closed, shippers are rerouting around the chokepoint, extending voyage times and raising freight expenses. Major...
Are China & The USA Working Together To Carve Up The Globe? | Peter Alexander
The interview with Peter Alexander, founder of Z‑Ben Advisors, challenges the polarized Western view of China by highlighting a pragmatic, on‑the‑ground assessment. He argues that China is not on the brink of collapse nor poised for outright global domination, but...
German Investor Confidence Crashes Amid Iran War
Hello from Germany, where investor confidence plummets on the Iran war. An expectations index by the ZEW institute decreased to -0.5 in March from 58.3 in Feb. That’s below all estimates in a Bloomberg survey, which had foreseen a reading...
Post‑Fed, Iran War’s Hidden Employment and Income Risks Emerge
When the dust settles after tomorrow's Fed meeting, the potential economic costs of the war in Iran are likely to feel more real. Headlines will be hawkish with a greater emphasis on inflation, but downside risks to employment and disposable...
Global Inflation Rates Set to Shift Dramatically Next Month
This chart is going to look at lot different a month from now. Global Inflation Rates... https://t.co/97kgL1q8Hx
Crude Oil's Market Ripple Effects Discussed on Podcast
Plenty to talk about this week as @MrMBrown and I resume our weekly podcast. Amongst other things we'll be looking at crude oil's impact on markets which could well reverberate for some time #oilcrisis https://t.co/B6h8K0JLAj
Market Predicts Near‑Certain No Rate Cut at FOMC
FOMC interest rate decision will happen within 24 hours. The market expects a 99.1% odds of no rate cuts. https://t.co/mwK46vPADA
Russian Shadow Fleet Set to Vanish, Shipping Shortage Looms
There's a good chance that the entire Russian shadow fleet could be dismantled within months. Beyond the impacts on Russian, Iranian, and other oil supplies, global shipping could be shifting towards a shortage as the vessels are retired. #crude #crudeoil #geopolitics...
Trump Admin to Loosen Venezuela Oil Sanctions Amid Price Surge
SCOOP: The Trump administration intends to take additional steps to ease sanctions on #Venezuela’s oil sector in an effort to increase crude production as the #Iran war sends prices surging, sources tell me @GaripPatricia @peterbmillard @zerpius. https://t.co/aefUIb9tHJ
Australia Raises Rates Again, 25 Bps to 4.10%
Global Central Bank Update: -Australia hiked rates for the second straight month, 25 bps move up to 4.10%. https://t.co/tBFSesl4qo
Brazil Sends Delegation to China Over Soybean Sanitary Dispute
🇧🇷🇨🇳 Brazilian officials will head to China next week to discuss the ongoing sanitary issues with soybean exports. Brazil's minister said they have stepped up inspection efforts, yet he also said there has been no change in protocol. https://t.co/RrTP0clcZT
Airlines Face $400M March Fuel Surge, Higher Fares
"Global airlines sounded the alarm ... over soaring jet fuel prices triggered by the US-Israeli war against Iran, warning of hundreds of millions of extra costs, higher fares and cuts to some routes." Delta fuel costs up by $400mn for March...
Closing Hormuz Guarantees Outcome; Only Duration Matters
Keep Hormuz closed long enough and it is a mathematical and logistical certainty. The only debate is "How long is 'long enough' to make that happen?"
Higher Oil Prices Trigger Demand Collapse, Recession, Fed Cuts
Actually Higher Oil Prices, cause Demand destruction that causes recession that causes Fed to cut
Oil Hitting $125 Could Reshape Global Economy
Oil prices climbing to $125 could shift the global economic outlook – Morgan Stanley’s Seth Carpenter @seekingalpha https://t.co/W6t7v236nu
Stocks Held Until Oil Surge Triggered 2022 Inflation Sell‑off
The equity market was "resilient" at the start of the Russia-Ukraine war as well...it took five weeks of high oil prices before stocks started to capitulate to inflation pressures in 2022. https://t.co/CXaKnBXbHv
Reliable Iran War Sources Still Hold Up After Two Weeks
My list of accounts to follow for quality information about the Iran war and Strait of Hormuz holds up two weeks later… 👇👇
Expect Tomorrow's EZ Inflation Forecasts to Surprise Markets
Have sense that the floodgates will open on EZ inflation forecasts tomorrow. We have been updating daily since last week with the final HICPs from the individual countries, and I still think we're behind the curve ahead of the numbers...
China Adopts US‑style Economic Coercion as America Wanes
China learned economic coercion from the best, as I wrote with Adam Szubin in this coauthored 2023 essay in @ForeignAffairs: https://t.co/fsxpb7Zusb
Pakistan Faces Highest Energy Risk if Hormuz Closes
Pakistan looks like the Asian energy importer that is most at risk because of the closure of the Strait of Hormuz. More at today's Chartbook Top Links: https://t.co/7rDXmrxVqy
Greece, Eurogroup Discuss Energy Shock’s Economic Impact
Very good meeting with Greece's Minister of Economy & Finance Kyriakos @Pierrakakis, the President of the Eurogroup, at IEA HQ in Paris We discussed recent developments in energy markets amid the war in the Middle East and the potential economic implications...