Today's Global Economy Pulse
Australia's April CPI eases to 4.2% as fuel cuts mask rising core inflation
The consumer price index slipped to a 4.2% annual rise in April, missing the 4.4% forecast, helped by a temporary fuel excise cut that lowered transport costs. Meanwhile, the trimmed‑mean core inflation gauge rose to 3.4% year‑over‑year, the highest level since late‑2024, keeping pressure on the Reserve Bank of Australia’s policy outlook.
Chalmers Says Latest Treasury Modelling Shows Australia’s Inflation Could Reach 5%, as National Cabinet Meets on Fuel
Treasury modelling released by Treasurer Jim Chalmers indicates Australia’s headline inflation could peak in the high‑4s, potentially reaching 5%, as oil prices remain elevated. Two scenarios are examined: oil at $100 a barrel for the first half of the year, and a higher $120 scenario that would take three years to normalize. Both paths would shave up to 0.2 percentage points off GDP growth in the short term and leave the economy up to 0.6% smaller by 2027. The outlook comes as Prime Minister Anthony Albanese convenes a national cabinet on the fuel crisis, appointing a coordinator‑general to manage diesel shortages and preparing a budget focused on tax reform, productivity and savings.
PPI Shows No $80+ Oil Days in February
Producer Prices - How much oil data (days > $80) is in this PPI inflation data? PPI vs Brent Move -- Zero days above $80 in this Feb PPI print—WTI cruised the entire month between $61–$67 (avg ~$64.50, peak 67.31 on...
Control of Hormuz Determines Iran War’s Global Impact
Comparing what is now happening with what has happened in analogous historical situations and triangulating my thinking with smart, well-informed leaders and experts has always helped me make better decisions. I have found that most wars are filled with big...
No ‘Last Hurrah’ Expected for US De Minimis as Legal Challenge Advances
The U.S. administration’s suspension of the de minimis exemption is now being challenged in the Court of International Trade after a lawsuit by auto‑parts retailer Detroit Axle alleges the move exceeds legal authority. The challenge follows a Supreme Court ruling that limited...
China’s 90% Model Redefines Global Economic Power
𝐓𝐡𝐢𝐬 𝐢𝐬 𝐬𝐨𝐦𝐞𝐭𝐡𝐢𝐧𝐠 𝐲𝐨𝐮 𝐬𝐢𝐦𝐩𝐥𝐲 𝐜𝐚𝐧𝐧𝐨𝐭 𝐨𝐯𝐞𝐫𝐥𝐨𝐨𝐤. What if China’s economic power is much bigger than we realize? In just 45 seconds, I’ll reveal the truth behind China’s 90% Model and how it’s reshaping industries globally. 𝐖𝐡𝐚𝐭 𝐲𝐨𝐮’𝐥𝐥 𝐥𝐞𝐚𝐫𝐧: The insidious strategy behind...
US Strikes on Iran Risk 5% Global Oil Loss
Iran produces 4-5% of the world's total oil supply, making it the 3rd largest producer in OPEC. The best case for this conflict just took a leg lower. At best, this ends in the next 1-2 months and the Strait...
DA Seeks Fertilizer Supply Deals with China, Russia Amid Mideast Tensions
The Philippine Department of Agriculture is negotiating fertilizer supply agreements with China, Russia, India and Belarus as Middle‑East tensions threaten the flow of nitrogen‑based inputs. While the agency has already secured more than 80% of its annual fertilizer requirement, rising...
Fed Decision Zone Signals Hedge Opportunity Near $670
📺 WHY THIS FED MOVE СOULD BE SOLD 🛑 Get my newsletter tomorrow: https://t.co/Rqp84Wg39F The market has shown short-term strength going into the Fed today. $SPY has rallied meaningfully from around $662.34 to the $674 area, a solid move given the macro backdrop...
US Waiver Redirects Russian Oil to India, Squeezes China
Macro: US waiver shifts Russian crude to India, squeezing China; grades flipped to Brent premium 🛢️ Drivers: waiver, Hormuz closure, voyage economics. Risks: geopolitics, supply swings. Trade: buy Indian refinery exposure. — Viktor Kopylov, PhD, CFA. More insights: t.me/si14Kopylov
Hope Lifts Risk Appetites Ahead of the Bank of Canada and FOMC Meetings
Markets are navigating heightened uncertainty as the Middle East conflict eases oil flow, pushing WTI back above $94, while the Federal Reserve and Bank of Canada are set to keep policy unchanged. The Fed’s updated dot‑plot still signals a single...
Energy Becomes National Security, Triggering State‑Driven Markets
🔴Thoughts on the Future of Energy Markets🔴 The most severe long-term consequence of escalating trade wars, tariffs, sanctions, disruptions involving Venezuela, Iran, the Strait of Hormuz, and even moves like the Greenland interest isn't just higher prices or short-term supply shocks....
EU Gas Buyers May Replicate 2022 Spending Surge
This is a key theme for EZ inflation/gas. The curve in gas suggests that EZ buyers hold their nerve, but supply is paramount. The longer it goes on, the higher is the risk that EU buyers will do what...
Why Asia Hopes for a Short Mideast War
A potential war in Iran is sending shockwaves through the Asia‑Pacific as the region’s heavy reliance on Middle Eastern oil, LNG and petrochemicals makes the closure of the Strait of Hormuz a catalyst for inflation, supply‑chain strain and strategic uncertainty....
Official Statistics: Forecasts for the UK Economy: March 2026
The UK Treasury released its March 2026 edition of the monthly "Forecasts for the UK economy" comparison, collating short‑term and medium‑term projections from a selection of independent forecasters. The 19‑page PDF presents outlooks for 2025‑26 through 2029‑30, covering GDP, inflation, labour...
Instead of Shopping They’re Quietly Stockpiling Cash — ‘Shadow Saving’ — and It Could Short-Circuit the Global Economy
Chinese households are amassing cash at record levels, with deposits reaching roughly 118% of GDP by 2025, despite falling interest rates. A Reuters poll shows more than 80% of respondents prefer saving over spending, reflecting deep‑seated precautionary behavior. The shift...
AI, Supply Chains, and the Future of Economic Power
In this episode, Jacob Helberg, Undersecretary of State for Economic Affairs, discusses how AI, hardware, and secure supply chains have become central to U.S. economic and national security. He outlines the administration’s three‑front strategy to win the AI race: superior...
Fed Meeting Updates: FOMC Set to Hold Rates Steady as Oil Prices Soar
The Federal Open Market Committee is expected to leave its benchmark interest rate unchanged at the March 2026 meeting. The decision follows a February jobs report that revealed a loss of roughly 100,000 positions and a sharp rise in oil...
Strait of Hormuz Is Chokepoint for Sulphuric Acid and Critical Metal Processing
The Strait of Hormuz channels about 50% of the world’s sulphur, a key feedstock for sulphuric acid used in nickel, copper and cobalt processing. Indonesia, which produces over half of global nickel, imports roughly 75% of its sulphur from the...
Hedge Funds Position for Potential BOJ Hawkish Tilt Amid Iran War Inflation Risks
Hedge funds such as Fivestar Asset Management are reshaping their Japanese bond and currency positions ahead of the Bank of Japan’s policy meeting, expecting Governor Kazuo Ueda to hint at a hawkish stance due to inflation pressures from the Iran...
Bank of England Interest Rate Decision: What to Expect on 19 March
The Bank of England will announce its March 19 interest‑rate decision, weighing whether to keep the Bank Rate at 3.75% or trim it by 25 basis points to 3.50%. A narrow 5‑4 vote in February highlighted deep divisions within the...
FOMC Cheat Code: Trade, Spot Hawk/Dove, Decode Powell
FOMC CHEAT CODE. Covering : - How to trade FOMC - How to spot a hawk or dove in FOMC - How to breakdown Powell's words in FOMC - How to know if FOMC is bullish or bearish See the comments to watch.
Germany's New Debt Fuels Handouts, Not Investment
Good Morning from Germany, where newly issued debt has so far not been used for investment, but rather to finance election giveaways & plug budget holes – once again proving the laws of political economy. Acc to Ifo, public borrowing...
Double-Edged Swords: How Military Purges Shape Authoritarian Appetite for War
China’s defense ministry announced the investigation of top general Zhang Youxia, marking the latest in a wave that has seen Xi Jinping remove five of six Central Military Commission generals since 2022. The article argues that military purges create a...
75% of World Bleeds $1
One has to be out of their mind to buy a petrol car - or bus, or scooter, or heater - today if they're even remotely cognizant of the reality around them ➡️New @EmberClimate report shows 75% of the world is...
China’s Gulf‑Iran Balancing Act Strains Amid Escalating Strikes
Can China still maintain good relations with Gulf states and Iran as fighting escalates? Iranian strikes on neighbouring states in response to US and Israeli attacks highlight how difficult Beijing’s balancing act has become https://t.co/nw8sJ9lHjm
Bailing Out Russia for “Peace” Is a Losing Proposition
In February 2026 Russia unveiled the “Dmitriev package,” a $14 trillion economic reintegration proposal that promises sanctions relief, Western market access and joint energy ventures. The article argues the plan is unrealistic and overlooks Russia’s war‑driven economy, where defense and security...
US Economy Slows; Trump’s Iran War Threatens Further Damage
The US economy is losing momentum. In January, consumer spending slowed sharply to a crawl of 1.56% annualized. TRUMP’S WAR ON IRAN PROMISES MORE ECONOMIC DAMAGE. https://t.co/sjumYo1FBt
Trump-Netanyahu Iran Conflict Triggers Market Correction, Threatens US Economy
A stock market correction caused by the Trump-Netanyahu War On Iran that spikes oil, yields & dollar poses the greatest risk to the US economy. Fixed it for ya, GS
China’s Multibillion-Dollar Minerals Investment Lifts Foreign Economies: Report
Since 2023, China has poured more than $120 billion into overseas mining and mineral‑processing projects, covering lithium, rare‑earth metals and battery components. The Australian think‑tank Climate Energy Finance says the outflow fuels clean‑energy deployment in developing economies, supplying inputs for solar,...
China Shifts Food Imports From US to Emerging Markets
China retaliated against tariffs by importing much less food from the US in 2025. Canada, Ukraine and the EU also got hit. Instead, China ramped up its food imports from many across emerging markets. Vietnam, Indonesia and Argentina are among...
Middle East Conflict Dampens Prospects for 2026 Rate Cuts
President Trump is demanding that the Fed immediately lower borrowing costs. But the war in the Middle East has now made any interest rate cuts much less likely in 2026 — not just in the U.S. but around the world. w/...
Hope Boosts Risk Appetite Ahead of BoC, FOMC
Hope Lifts Risk Appetites Ahead of the Bank of Canada and FOMC Meetings: There are three main talking points today. The first is the war. While it continues to rage, more oil is reportedly moving through the Strait of Hormuz...
Fed Rate Outlook Shifts Dramatically in Three Months
Wild to think just 3 months ago there was an FOMC member projecting a 2-2.25% Fed Funds rate for 2026 (6 cuts from current). How quickly the times change... https://t.co/pLQLDHIdVx
Japan's Gas Prices Surge on Conflict and Weak Yen
Japan's gasoline price hits a record high 📈⚠️ 🛢️ The Middle East conflict and weak yen are delivering a double whammy to Japanese consumers 👉 Japan depends on the Middle East for most of its oil https://t.co/NMJurOwuQM https://t.co/ivLXm4sdIQ
Middle East Flight Cancellations Cost $34‑56 B in Tourism
MORE COLLATERAL DAMAGE FROM THE US-ISRAELI WAR AGAINST IRAN: More than 52,000 flights have been canceled across the Middle East. Roughly 6M passengers have been affected. According to the NYT, the resulting loss of tourist spending alone could range from $34B-$56B this year....
Hope Boosts Stocks and Bonds Pre‑Fed
Hope seems to be lifting equities and bonds ahead of the Bank of Canada and Federal Reserve meetings. May WTI is lower but nearly $3 above lows. Hawkish hold may be more convincing from the Fed than the...
Private Credit Strain May Force Fed to Backstop Mania
Will private credit stress push the Fed to once again backstop irrational exuberance ? https://t.co/dnERejAvPo
Upcoming Q2 2026 Macro Themes Webinar – March 18
EVENT | Q2 2026 Macro Themes: Wednesday, March 18, 11:00 AM ET https://t.co/jT4huLbBBJ via @hedgeye
Yield Curve Reflects Economic Quad Cycle, Not Daily Noise
YIELD CURVE: doesn't care about Taco Time Trading, Tourists, etc. It cares about The Quads (i.e. The Cycle) #Quad1 peaked in early FEB and the #Quad3 slowdown continues in the real economy this morning https://t.co/KVMr12qbUs
China Trades Stability for Sovereignty, Not Energy
China offering Taiwan stability in exchange for sovereignty This is less about energy and more about power. China doesn't have spare energy to offer. https://t.co/YAE9bzHoXv #China #Taiwan #Energy #Geopolitics #Power
Hormuz Shock Reveals Fragile Energy‑Food System
Hormuz is a SYSTEMS SHOCK, writes @ctindale Energy → fertilizer → food → unrest → state control. This isn’t a disruption. It’s the exposure of a fragile system built on false efficiency. #Energy #Overshoot #Geopolitics #SupplyChains #Inflation
Hormuz Remains Uncontrollable System Favoring Disruptors
U.S. power can strike targets—but it can’t control Hormuz, writes @citrinowicz Hormuz isn’t a target—it’s a system, and it favors the disruptor. #Hormuz #Geopolitics #Oil #Energy
Gulf Growth Model Crumbles: Deals, Exports, Capital Falter
This isn’t just an energy shock—it’s a structural hit to the Gulf growth model, writes @anasalhajji Deals are collapsing, exports are stalled, capital is coming home. This goes far beyond oil. #Geopolitics #Energy #Gulf #Macro
Trump’s China Delay Signals End of US Asia Pivot
.@JohnDelury: “Are we witnessing the end of the Pivot to Asia?…Trump’s desire to delay his China trip sends a clear message to the region that Washington has a serious bandwidth problem.” https://t.co/z3Dfcg9e3q
1990 Payroll Drop Preceded Oil Shock, Delayed Fed Cuts
Surprised more people arent talking about 1990. Payrolls contracted in the month before the surge in oil prices, which tipped the economy more forcefully into recession. Fed couldn't respond sufficiently, delaying its cutting cycle for 6 months, until energy prices...
Bob Brackett Returns: War in Iran Reshapes Global Gas Flows
NEW ODD LOTS: It’s the return of the legend Bob Brackett @tracyalloway and I talk to Bernstein’s top commodities researcher about war in Iran and how natural gas flows are being reshaped all around the world. https://t.co/DlSfweVsgl
US Welcomes Chinese Dependence, Resists Chinese Market Involvement
.@ZichenWanghere: “The United States is comfortable with economic ties that deepen Chinese reliance on U.S. supply—yet far less willing to tolerate even tightly constrained forms of Chinese participation in the U.S. economy.” https://t.co/DoXfoZWKzl
Europe Swapped Russian Gas for LNG, Still Vulnerable
Europe's LNG imports have gone from 3% of gas supply in 1990 to nearly 50% today. We replaced Russian pipeline gas with LNG at record speed. But we replaced one dependency with another. That's why Europe is so exposed. Answer is transforming demand...
Goldman Sees Possible US Export Bans, Targeting Refined Oil
Goldman > While not our base case, we would not rule out US export restrictions. If implemented, they appear more likely for refined products than for crude oil.
Export Bans Threaten Philippines' Fuel and Food Security
Products matter as we don’t consume crude but the by products. The Philippines is vulnerable to export bans of not just diesel and gas but also eventually food should the conflict endures.