Today's Global Economy Pulse
Australia's April CPI eases to 4.2% as core inflation hits 2024 high
Australia’s consumer price index slipped to a 4.2% annual rise in April, missing the 4.4% consensus as a temporary fuel excise cut trimmed transport costs. At the same time, the trimmed‑mean core inflation gauge rose to 3.4% year‑over‑year, the highest level since late‑2024, keeping pressure on the Reserve Bank of Australia’s inflation target.
Towards Correction?
The S&P 500’s aggregate valuation masks a stark split between the high‑flying Magnificent 7 and the rest of the market. Forward price‑to‑earnings ratios for the Magnificent 7 are significantly higher than those for large‑, mid‑, and small‑cap indices. While the Magnificent 7 index has slipped about 16% from its recent peak, the ex‑Magnificent 7 segment has delivered modest gains of roughly 12% year‑to‑date. Rising geopolitical uncertainty from the US‑Israel/Iran conflict could act as a catalyst for a broader market correction.
U.S. Intervention in Venezuela Could Help Solve Colombia’s Energy Crisis
Colombia’s natural‑gas output fell to a multi‑decade low of 683 mmcf/d in January 2026, a 17 % drop year‑over‑year, forcing the government to lean heavily on costly LPG imports that now cover about 30 % of domestic gas demand. The shortfall threatens electricity...
Oil Company Shares Soar to All-Time Highs as Middle East War Turbocharges Price per Barrel
Shares of the world’s oil super‑majors have surged to record levels following the US‑Israeli strike on Iran, driving oil prices above $117 a barrel. In the two weeks since the conflict began, the combined market capitalisation of the six listed...
Current Account Deficit Narrows to $16 Billion in 2025
The Philippines’ current‑account deficit shrank by 12.3% in 2025, falling to $16.3 billion or 3.3% of GDP, down from $18.6 billion in 2024. Strong export growth of 15.2%, led by electronics, machinery and minerals, offset a 5% rise in imports. Record remittances...
Alternative Fed Tightening Tools, Not Rate Hikes, Curb Inflation
FWIW while many are suggesting Fed Rate Hikes and markets are beginning to price that as well. We much prefer 1. Ending RMO 2. Addressing the uneven distribution of reserves by establishing a minimum reserve requirement to protect the high...
Battle-Weary Fed Confronts Another Supply Shock
The Federal Reserve is confronting a new supply‑side shock that threatens to revive inflationary pressures as geopolitical tensions persist. Central banks are diverging, with Australia likely to raise rates again while Europe and the UK pause policy tightening. This split...
Mark Carney’s Hidden Post‑American Economic Blueprint for Canada
Mark Carney’s Post-American Economic Strategy Phew. This essay took a lot of work. The argument is simple: PM MarkJCarney has an economic strategy for Canada, it's just not obvious. I try to connect the dots for readers. https://markhamhislop.substack.com/p/mark-carneys-post-american-economic
Central Banks Delay Hikes in Supply Shocks, Await Wage Inflation
The supply shock move in Energy prices, fertilizer prices, and food prices IS a Rate hike which slows the economy and is disinflationary to goods and services that are not energy and food. A dual mandate central bank doesn't hike...
Analysts Have a Message for Gold Investors Before the Fed Meeting
Gold investors face a pivotal Fed meeting on March 17‑18, with spot gold slipping below $5,050 and losing more than 1% for the week as a strong dollar and mixed economic data weigh on the metal. The Fed’s rate decision...
Global Economy Faces Growing Complexity and Uncertainty
Please find below the links to my weekly look at what has become a much more complicated and uncertain situation for the global economy and markets. linkedin.com/pulse/weekly-look-global-economy-markets-mohamed-el-erian-shp3e/?trackingId=vXKBwDM3QxqdFHY2kfbOrQ%3D%3D&lipi=urn%3Ali%3Apage%3Ad_flagship3_detail_base%3BXcJdDTIXTiGfbxaVzWx6xA%3D%3D https://open.substack.com/pub/mohamedelerian/p/the-weekly-look-at-the-global-economy-372?utm_campaign=post-expanded-share&utm_medium=web #economy
Iran Attacks Hint at Sixth Shock, but Prices Modest
"This month’s attacks on Iran point to a sixth global energy supply shock, but the rise in crude oil prices to date does not represent a shock of the magnitude seen in earlier episodes. At $100bbl, Brent crude is less...
Amid Soaring Aluminium Imports, India Brings in New QCO
India has introduced a new Quality Control Order (QCO) that obliges both domestic and foreign manufacturers of aluminium and alloy products to adhere to Bureau of Indian Standards (BIS) specifications. The move comes as imports from China surged from $1.47 billion...
Oil Shock Boosts Dollar, Weakens Euro and Asian Currencies
I don’t know how much clearer I could have been in the latest roundup. 1) the price of oil doubled in a week and the Hormuz closure is 100x works for European and Asian markets. Therefore as long as it...
Interest Rates Hold ‘Almost Certain’ as Trump Rules Out Deal with Iran
The Bank of England’s Monetary Policy Committee is expected to keep the base rate unchanged at 3.75% as the Middle‑East war fuels higher energy prices and fresh inflation risks. Economists had pencilled in a rate cut after January’s inflation dip...
Review: “The Age of AI and Our Human Future” — A Futurist’s Take on Power, Purpose, and Partnership
In "The Age of AI and Our Human Future," Henry Kissinger, Eric Schmidt and Daniel Huttenlocher argue that artificial intelligence is reshaping geopolitics, ethics and human identity, demanding a partnership rather than replacement. The review by futurist Ian Khan highlights...
The Iran War Is a New Test of America's Economic Superpower
Despite the Iran‑Iran war threatening oil flows through the Strait of Hormuz and pushing crude prices above $103 a barrel, the United States economy continues to show resilience. Recent data show unemployment at 4.4% and Q1 2025 GDP growth projected...
Gas Prices Surge 23% Since War Began
The @wsj on one of the most sensitive prices across the economic, political and social landscape: “Average regular gasoline prices nationally were around $3.68 a gallon on Saturday, according to AAA, a 23% increase from before the war started at the...
France and Italy Seek Safe Passage Deal with Iran
France and Italy have opened diplomatic talks with Iran to secure safe passage for commercial vessels through the Strait of Hormuz, a vital oil transit chokepoint. The initiative follows recent French casualties and heightened military presence that underscored the risks...
Oil Price Manipulation, an Unrecognized Stratagem and an Unhinged Plan
Governments are scrambling to curb soaring oil prices after Iran’s closure of the Strait of Hormuz cut roughly 20% of global supply. The International Energy Agency authorized a historic release of 400 million barrels from strategic reserves, equivalent to about 20...
Chaos of War Bolsters 10-Year Real Yield Heading Into This Week’s Auction
War‑driven uncertainty in Europe and the Middle East has pushed the 10‑year Treasury Inflation‑Protected Securities (TIPS) real yield to its highest level in a decade, setting the stage for this week’s Treasury auction. The surge reflects heightened inflation expectations and...
Kyodo News Digest: March 15, 2026
The United States and China launched high‑level trade talks in Paris, setting the stage for a Trump‑Xi summit in Beijing at the end of March. Japan’s ruling Liberal Democratic Party signaled a cautious stance on a potential Self‑Defense Forces ship‑escort...
India’s Gulf Oil Imports Vanish, Boosting Iranian, Russian Demand
India used to import 50% of its oil from Iraq, Qatar, Saudi Arabia and UAE (blue). All this oil had to transit the Strait of Hormuz and - recently - this is down to zero. It's this massive hole that's...
West Asia Conflict : Plastics Manufacturers Raise Concerns About Polymer Price Hikes, Seek Survival Package for MSME Units
The All India Plastics Manufacturers Association (AIPMA) warned that polymer prices have surged 59% in just 11 days amid the West Asia conflict, threatening the viability of India’s plastic‑processing sector. Over 90% of the roughly 50,000 units in the industry...
_150326.jpg)
Turkey’s Inflation Fight Stands Exposed to a Trump Wrecking Ball
Turkey’s inflation remains above 30% as the Central Bank of the Republic of Turkey (CBRT) paused its tightening cycle on March 12, sparking criticism from analysts who argue a rate hike was warranted. The country’s $50 bn annual energy import bill and...
War Triggers Gulf’s Defense Surge and Pipeline Pivot
I was reading Ziad Daoud and Dina Esfandiary's analysis of how this war will change the Gulf. They argue that just as the 1990 invasion of Kuwait created a deep psychological rupture, the current missile strikes are threatening to repeat that...
India-EU Ties in Focus as Jaishankar Starts 2-Day Visit to Brussels
India’s External Affairs Minister S. Jaishankar began a two‑day visit to Brussels, the first high‑level Indian delegation since the EU‑India free‑trade agreement was signed in January. He will meet EU High Representative Kaja Kallas, attend the EU Foreign Affairs Council,...
Geopolitical Wars Drive Stocks Down as Oil Spikes
🔴Watch oil prices: In past geopolitical conflicts, stocks were negatively correlated with oil. The longer the conflict lasted and the higher oil prices went, the deeper the drawdown, with the worst being -19.3% during the 2011 Libyan Revolution 👇 https://globalmarketsinvestor.beehiiv.com/p/the-iea-has-proposed-the-largest-emergency-oil-release-from-strategic-reserves-in-history
Fujairah Resumes Oil Loadings, Prices Set to Rise
UAE's Fujairah resumes oil loadings after attack, sources say. Oil is still expected to open higher when trading resumes tonight https://t.co/PPrPe2zMLy
JPMorgan Says Higher Oil Prices Could Spark a 'Domino Effect' That Tanks the S&P 500 by 15%
JPMorgan warned that Brent crude staying above $90 a barrel could trigger a 10‑15% correction in the S&P 500, creating a domino effect across global equities. The bank estimates the equity decline would shave about 1% off U.S. consumer spending through...
Goldman Sees 25% US Recession Risk as Oil Hits $100
Goldman just raised US recession probability to 25%. Oxford Economics says $140 oil triggers recession in the eurozone, UK, and Japan. Brent is at $100 and the Strait of Hormuz is still closed. https://t.co/7yjIA43hkG
Israel's Occupation Devastates West Bank and Gaza Economies
Take a look at what Israel's Reign of Terror in the occupied West Bank & Gaza has done to their economies. And we don't even have 2025 data, yet. https://t.co/AruQRDwOZD
Australia Seeks Foreign Gas Investment Amid Middle East Turmoil
Australia is lobbying for more overseas investment in its gas resources as the Middle East conflict riles energy markets 🇦🇺💰 https://t.co/GpZPpkrjwB https://t.co/pVWyatVjys
Historian Calls US Iran War Strategy Shoddy
Military historian Phillips O’Brien on the problems the US is facing in executing its war in Iran: "It reveals a lot of the shoddy nature of the strategic planning." https://t.co/qS1gZLapCT
Stocks Typically Bottom Five Months Before GDP Rebounds
As recession fears mount, remember that stocks bottom ~5 months before GDP inflects. JPMAM https://t.co/R8swcw5iFp
Quant Models Spot Energy Upside, Uranium Long‑Term Play
Chatted w/ @TheKEReport this weekend about the outlook for financial markets amid the ongoing war -- and what our quant models are signaling...
US Now Settles Trade Deficit with Gold Exports
3rd month out of the last 4 that the US' biggest export has been gold. Only time that's happened in at least 20 years (& probably ever.) US is de facto net settling a portion of trade its trade deficit...
Trump and Netanyahu Drive Dollar Dedollarization Amid Iran War
Trump-Netanyahu orchestrated dollar dedollarization, debasement & devaluation in full view as collateral damage to their war on Iran, Lebanon, et al. #ByDesignOrDefault
IEA Nations Confirm Massive Oil Release, Need Hormuz Opening
IEA countries have now confirmed their contributions to our largest ever oil stock release This brings unprecedented additional volumes of oil to the market from 16 March onward. However, opening the Strait of Hormuz is vital for a return to stable...
War on Iran Sparks Unprecedented Supply Chain Uncertainty
The US-Israeli war on Iran, is heavily disrupting fertilizer, aluminum, semiconductor inputs, and other key industrial supplies. Supply chain expert Nick Vyas: “We have created equal if not greater uncertainty than during the pandemic.” TRUMP’S WAR = AFFORDABILITY PROBLEMS. https://t.co/zziB6qAr5L
UK January Growth Stalls; Starmer Prioritizes Russia over Economy
The UK economy showed NO GROWTH in January. No surprise. RUSSOPHOBE Starmer is too busy picking fights with Russia than fixing Britain's TANKING economy. https://t.co/Wz4vL8LULC
Oil Shock Resilience Masks Sectoral Strain on Airlines, Farms, Autos
The WSJ reports: "The U.S. economy is less exposed to oil shocks today than in prior decades." But, today’s economy shows strain in airlines, farms, autos. Airlines face soaring fuel costs. Farmers face higher fertilizer prices. Rising gas prices threaten US autos. https://t.co/bOpYCs0pCD
Iran Conflict Freezes U.S. IPO Pipeline This Week
Iran war chills the IPO market: No companies expected to price in the U.S. this week
Central Banks Brace for Inflation as Iran War Spikes Oil
The world’s top central banks are about to confront a fresh inflation threat as the war in Iran jolts oil https://t.co/dTDfbxKZsB via @jrandow https://t.co/tBFHewSb2m
US Oil Exports Could Spark Overwhelming Ban Demand
I’m really concerned that when people take this one step further and learn that the US is actually selling oil to other countries that the public’s demand for an export ban will become overwhelming.
Global Shipping Chaos Raises Costs for Everyone
More than 100 cargo ships are stuck in the Persian Gulf. Nearby ports are packed with redirected cargo. Costs are being driven up globally. NOBODY IS SPARED FROM THE TRUMP- NETANYAHU WAR TAX. https://t.co/EF8fmqKgiV
US and China Officials Meet in Paris to Plan Summit
US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent, US Trade Representative Jamieson Greer and China’s Vice Premier He Lifeng began talks in Paris on Sunday to map out plans for a leaders’ summit later this month https://t.co/ALjOia2Bim
Alba Cuts 19% Capacity to Safeguard Operations Amid Hormuz Disruption
March 15 (Reuters) - Aluminium Bahrain https://t.co/oYsWepGMNg, known as Alba, said on Sunday it had initiated a shutdown of three aluminium smelting lines accounting for 19% of its capacity to preserve business continuity amid ongoing disruption in the Strait of...
Greek Shipowners Sabotage EU Sanctions for Putin Profits
Greece' shipping oligarchs fatally undermined the maritime services ban that should've been in the EU's 20th sanctions package. They're loyal only to money. If that means helping Putin, they fall over themselves doing it. No one should celebrate them... https://t.co/LOEwsvkjYG https://t.co/xUJgZVccK2
Trump Forces Unpopular Northern Iraq Oil Export Resumption
Press the translate button. Remember what I mentioned before: The resumption of oil exports form Northern Iraq was forced by the Trump administration. None of the parties are happy, especially the KRG.
Dollar Debasement Spurs Gold, Silver Miner Upside
USA printing trillions to rebuild Gaza ($17B+ pledged), Venezuela ($100B+ oil), Cuba & Iran. Dollar debasement accelerates → inflation hedge essential. Gold & silver miners: leveraged upside on rising metals, undervalued now. https://t.co/X9WvAtyZxp