Today's Global Economy Pulse
Australia's April CPI eases to 4.2% as core inflation hits 2024 high
Australia’s consumer price index slipped to a 4.2% annual rise in April, missing the 4.4% consensus as a temporary fuel excise cut trimmed transport costs. At the same time, the trimmed‑mean core inflation gauge rose to 3.4% year‑over‑year, the highest level since late‑2024, keeping pressure on the Reserve Bank of Australia’s inflation target.
Ridley: The Gas Price Shock Will Expose Britain’s Catastrophic Energy Misjudgment
The recent surge in global natural‑gas prices has laid bare Britain’s over‑reliance on imports, costing households roughly three times what Americans pay. The author argues that a decade‑old decision to ban on‑shore shale fracking has left the UK vulnerable, missing an opportunity to produce up to 40 billion cubic metres of gas annually. Had shale development proceeded, the country could approach self‑sufficiency, generate export revenues and cut carbon emissions. The piece frames the gas‑price shock as a direct consequence of that policy misstep.
Gold Falls Sharply As Iran Vows To Fight Back Harder, Pushing Oil Prices Up Further
Gold prices dropped sharply on Thursday, with front‑month COMEX gold falling $49.8 (‑0.96%) to $5,129.30 per ounce. The decline coincided with crude oil jumping to $94.50 a barrel, up $7.25 (8.31%) as Iran intensified threats and the Strait of Hormuz...
With Active Security Selection, Airport Bonds Can Add Ballast as Geopolitics Rattle Markets
The airport municipal bond sector has demonstrated strong credit resilience, weathering crises such as 9/11, COVID‑19, and recent geopolitical turbulence. Federal relief via the CARES Act prevented mass downgrades, and General Aviation Revenue Bonds (GARBs) have maintained stable, investment‑grade ratings...
Tame CPI Still Spells Trouble for Fed’s Favored Inflation Measure
Core CPI remained mild in January‑February 2026, but the Fed‑preferred core PCE is projected to outpace it sharply. Economists expect core PCE to rise about 3.1% year‑over‑year, creating the widest CPI‑PCE gap in decades. The divergence stems from differing weightings,...
Globalist Mole Inside Administration Sabotaged Strait of Hormuz
Not gonna sugar coat this and do not care if it costs me my new Pentagon press credentials and access to this administration. The left smeared my name in a major WAPO hit piece and the right can do the...
China’s High-Tech Narrative Cannot Solve Its Deflation Problem
Premier Li Qiang added the Consumer Price Index to the 2026 Government Work Report, formally acknowledging deflation for the first time. The annual GDP growth target was lowered to 4.5‑5 percent, the first sub‑5 percent goal since 1991. While a trade surplus...
Kroenig on The Beacon of Liberty Podcast on the Truman Doctrine
On March 12, Atlantic Council’s Matthew Kroenig appeared on The Beacon of Liberty podcast to discuss the Truman Doctrine. He traced the policy’s origins to post‑World War II fears of Soviet expansion and highlighted its role in shaping early Cold War strategy. Kroenig linked...
Trump Declares: 'We Won' As World Plunges Into Worst Oil Crisis in History
Former President Donald Trump proclaimed victory in Kentucky even as the world faces the deepest oil supply shock in modern history, with Brent crude breaching $100 a barrel after Iran’s new supreme leader, Mojtaba Khamenei, threatened U.S. bases and kept...
Amadou Sy on Why Africa Is Keeping Its Debt Closer to Home
In this episode, IMF Assistant Director Amadou Sy explains the growing shift in African governments from external, often dollar‑denominated debt to domestic, local‑currency debt. He outlines the benefits of reduced currency risk and greater fiscal flexibility, while noting higher borrowing...
Middle East Conflict Might Create Supply Constraints, Raise in Aluminium Premiums in Mexico
The ongoing conflict in the Middle East has disrupted the Strait of Hormuz, choking the primary aluminium supply chain that relies on Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) smelters. Force‑majeure notices from Qatalum and Aluminium of Bahrain have driven premiums higher, with...
Stagflation Sojourn
U.S. equities posted their worst weekly decline in nearly a year as an energy‑driven stagflation scenario unfolded following a sharp spike in oil prices tied to the closure of the Strait of Hormuz. The article attributes the shock to escalating...
USITC Probes USMCA Auto Rules’ Impact on Industry Competitiveness
The U.S. International Trade Commission has opened a fact‑finding investigation into how the United States‑Mexico‑Canada Agreement’s automotive rules of origin affect U.S. competitiveness, especially for advanced and electric vehicles. The probe follows two earlier biennial reports that highlighted mismatches between...
US‑Iran Conflict Raises Oil Prices, Not Yet a Shock
U.S./Iran war is not (yet) an oil shock Oil futures prices have increased by more than a third since Israel and the United States attacked Iran and almost two-thirds since the start of the year but the increase is not yet...
Market Derelict On Oil Inflation Risk, Albert Edwards Says
Albert Edwards warns that markets are overlooking the inflationary pressure from a new oil price spike, arguing that bond yields could rise if the risk is ignored. He notes that unlike the previous surge, stimulus cash has largely vanished, so...
MacroVoices #523 Jim Bianco: Energy, FED & Economy in The Wake of Iran Conflict
Jim Bianco joins MacroVoices to dissect the market fallout from the recent Iran conflict, noting sharp oil price spikes and heightened volatility. He evaluates how potential Fed chair Kevin Warsh could reshape monetary policy amid rising inflation pressures. The discussion...
U.S. Crude Exports Serve as West’s Strategic Reserve
America’s Strategic Oil Exports @WSJ Great and important read. I still believe the WSJ Editorial Board does some of the most balanced and informed analysis in the media. https://t.co/sxJ6f76VCl The International Energy Agency said Tuesday that its 32 member countries will...
Airfares Rise as Jet‑Fuel
Airfares are beginning to climb as jet-fuel prices surge following U.S. and Israeli strikes on Iran, pushing airlines to raise fares and fuel surcharges while warning of more increases if the conflict drags on. Carriers say travel demand remains strong,...
Global Data Pod Research Rap: Inflation Monitor
In this Inflation Monitor episode, J.P. Morgan economists Nora Santivani, Raphael Brunager, Mike Hansen, and Alan Monks examine how the recent oil price shock—spiking Brent to around $100—affects headline and core inflation across the Eurozone, United States, and United Kingdom....
Emerging Market Bulls Rejoicing, But Will It Last?
Emerging‑market indices have outperformed both the MSCI World and the S&P 500 in early 2026, driven by easing inflation, a weaker dollar, and shifting investor sentiment. Forecasts show EM economies growing around 4 % this year, roughly three times the pace of...
Tankers Burning and Insurers Walking Away: The Global Economic Fallout of Trump’s Iran War
The United States and Israel’s February 28 strikes on Iran triggered an immediate retreat by major maritime insurers, who canceled or sharply repriced war‑risk coverage for vessels transiting the Persian Gulf. Premiums surged by more than 1,000%, making tanker voyages...
Hormuz Disruption Threatens Global Fertilizer and Food Security
The Strait of Hormuz isn’t just about oil and gas. It’s about fertilizer. It’s about the supply chains that feed the world. Disrupt them, and the consequences show up months later—smaller harvests, tighter grain supplies, and higher food prices.
Time to Take Stock and Prepare
The escalating Middle East conflict is pushing crude oil toward $200 a barrel, straining global markets. The Philippines’ strategic reserves only cover about 45 days, leaving the nation exposed to price shocks. A newly mandated four‑day work week will shift...
Hormuz Disruption Could Persist for Up to One Month
If Hormuz flows do not resume for a month, that's the worst-case disruption duration my colleagues at @RapidanEnergy and I modeled last June when we mapped out a US-Iran conflict on global oil and LNG markets and prices. We modeled disruption...
Canada’s Economic Challenges
The IMF’s 2025 Article IV report highlights Canada’s dual challenge: external uncertainty from shifting U.S. tariff policy under former President Trump and deep‑seated internal productivity weaknesses. Output per hour is about 30 percent lower than the United States, with the gap widening...
Gundlach Unlocked: Positioning for Inflation and a Weaker Dollar
In the inaugural Gundlach Unlocked webcast, DoubleLine CEO Jeffrey Gundlach warned that inflation is likely to stay above the Fed’s 2 % target, long‑term rates remain elevated despite recent cuts, and the U.S. dollar may enter a weaker phase. He outlined...
Renewables Become Only Viable Exit Amid Global Energy Crisis
Renewables are the only exit strategy: Day 12 (updated) impact of the Israel and US attack, tracking Force Majeure, surcharges, and the explosive inflation behind the headlines FORCE MAJEURE IMPLICATIONS >Shell: FM on all LNG cargoes from Qatar >QatarEnergy: Pretty much totally down,...
Trump’s America, World Police
The Trump administration casts the United States as a global defender of liberty while domestic democratic norms crumble. It justifies a hard line on Iran with rhetoric about security and democracy, echoing decades‑old foreign policy scripts. Meanwhile, attacks on elections,...
From Volatility To Chaos: Navigating Wartime Impacts For Tech Leaders
The ongoing Middle East conflict is driving a sharp rise in fuel prices, forcing companies like Southwest Airlines and UBS to brace for higher operating costs. Traditional IT operating models, built for gradual stress, are buckling under the rapid, continuous...
Fed Cuts Unlikely as Inflation Stays Above Target
At the start of the year, the market was pricing in 2 Fed rate cuts. Today: just one cut, and not until the September meeting. The reality is inflation never moved down to the Fed's 2% target and is now moving higher....
Iran Conflict Threatens Global Economy Across All Sectors
The Iran War could trigger a global economic crisis and you won’t find a better summary of why than this one sentence from Rachel Ziemba below. Yes, this is about gas prices. But it’s also about: - the cost of food...
Middle East War Fallout: Sub-5% Philippine Growth May Persist This Year
Philippine planners warn that the Middle East conflict‑driven oil price surge could keep growth under 5% this year. DEPDev modeled two price scenarios—$100/barrel in March rising above $80 through May, and $140/barrel staying above $80 until September—each shaving 0.2‑0.3 percentage...
Oil Surge Drives Canadian Mortgage Rates Above 4%
Mortgage Rates Go Up: As The Price Of Oil Goes Up So Do Mortgage Rates Unless the War In The Middle East ends quickly we will soon see most Mortgage Rates in Canada start with a 4 And ZERO chance of Bank...
Turkish Central Bank Holds Rates and Shifts Away From Easing Bias
The Central Bank of Turkey kept its one‑week repo rate at 37% and left the interest‑rate corridor unchanged at 35.5%‑40%, signaling a pause amid heightened global risk and rising energy prices. In its statement the bank shifted away from an...
Infrastructure Investment Is the Key to China’s Growth
China's government set a 2026 growth target of 4.5‑5% after meeting its 2025 goal of 5%. 2025 GDP reached CN¥140.19 trillion ($20.4 trillion), with consumption contributing 52%, investment 15.3%, and exports 32.7% of growth. The economy faces geopolitical tensions and a US‑led...
USD Pressure Rises; Japan Not Defending Fixed Rate
I think it is a mistake to think that Japanese officials actually defend a fixed USD-JPY level. It makes sense to be cautious about the $USD in general as interest rate differentials have moved against it. It is a...
Iran Conflict Sparks Acute Oil Market Volatility
🚨 Mid-week Iran War and oil market update for Commodity Context subscribers. More regular coverage of the acute volatility across the increasingly strained oil complex in Oil Context Weekly tomorrow. https://t.co/lvkkTTJr9s
Global Oil Prices Affect U.S. Consumers, Regardless of Policy
There also is a world market for oil. When oil prices go up in Europe and Asia, people here pay more. Even a Trump-Energy Secretary should know this.
Saudi Pays Record Tanker Rates to Ship Red Sea Crude
Saudi Arabia is booking more and more super oil tankers at sky high rates (>$450,000 a day vs pre-war levels of $100,000 a day) to shift crude from the Red Sea into global markets.
BoE May Delay Expected Rate Cut Next Week
Could the Bank of England defer a possible rate cut next week? https://t.co/f0T8D0P94L #GBP #FOMC
Russia Rakes Up $150 Million Daily From Oil Surge
NEW: Russia is earning up to $150mn a day in extra budget revenues from oil sales amid price rises thanks to the US-Iran war. Moscow has so far earned $1.3bn-$1.9bn from taxes on oil exports and could receive $3.3bn-$4.9bn in total...
Iran's Crisis Fueled by Prior Sense of Invulnerability
FWIW - The greatest risk to the unfolding events in Iran was, is, and will continue to be the backdrop of invulnerability that existed moments before hand.
US Dollar Near Yearly High Amid Iran Conflict
Today's Opening Bell We covered a lot today- asset chapters provided US Dollar Testing Yearly High as Iran War Escalates https://t.co/7jdA7902Rt
Markets View Iran Conflict as Brief, Not Prolonged Crisis
Rational arguments are made as to why the Iran war won't be over soon, even as it "should" be over to prevent an economic calamity. Yet the market prices this as a temporary shock. What gives? What's the market seeing that...
Iran Opens Hormuz to Indian Tankers, Shifts Trade Route
"Indian Source Says Iran to Allow India-Flagged Tankers Through Hormuz as First Tanker Arrives" Looks like the Strait of Hormuz will be the new Bab el-Mandeb 🍻 https://t.co/370QXTDJC2
Unimpeded Tankers: Heading to China or Beyond Seiz
Would like to understand why these tankers are sailing unimpeded. Is it that they are going to China? Is it physically impossible to commandeer these ships like with Venezuela?
Manpower Employment Outlook Peaks at Highest Since 2022
The Manpower Employment Outlook Survey just jumped to its highest level since Q3/2022. They surveyed 41,700 employers in 42 countries. https://t.co/rs7Dv4XiH6
Trump's Hormuz Gamble Sparks Energy Crisis, Political Peril
Trump is a genius He just figured out he f**ked himself. He didn't see that starting a war that the closed the world's most important energy chokepoint might backfire? #IranWar #OilMarkets #GasPrices #EnergyCrisis #Hormuz #Geopolitics https://t.co/eqI97IDGLV
Global Doubt Threatens US Debt Sustainability
New NYT Opinion from me: The debt math of the United States only works if the rest of the world believes in it… but they’re starting not to. What does that mean for our future (and for all this debt)?...
Gold Stays Flat Despite Safe‑Haven Surge and Tensions
Gold should be exploding right now. Here's why it isn't Oil +8%. Stocks tanking. USD rising on safe haven flows But gold? Flat Meanwhile Iran's new Supreme Leader Khamenei says Strait stays closed warns of US military bases attacks Watch what happens next👇...
Carriers Redefine Red Sea Disruption as Permanent Shift
Maersk. Treating the Strait as a long-term situation. The length of the war. How it ends? Iran’s position? Undoing the ship mess in the Strait and Persian Gulf?