Today's Global Economy Pulse
Australia's April CPI eases to 4.2% as core inflation hits 2024 high
Australia’s consumer price index slipped to a 4.2% annual rise in April, missing the 4.4% consensus as a temporary fuel excise cut trimmed transport costs. At the same time, the trimmed‑mean core inflation gauge rose to 3.4% year‑over‑year, the highest level since late‑2024, keeping pressure on the Reserve Bank of Australia’s inflation target.
A Fashion Brand’s Guide to Tariff Refunds, with ArentFox Schiff’s Angela Santos
The Glossy Podcast featured ArentFox Schiff partner Angela Santos discussing the fallout from the Supreme Court’s February 2026 decision that struck down IEEPA‑based tariffs. The ruling sparked an immediate rollout of new tariff regimes, leaving fashion importers uncertain about refund timelines. Santos explained that a provisional ACE‑portal process is being built, but its accuracy and speed remain unclear. She urged brands to preserve protest rights, meticulously track import data, and diversify supply chains to mitigate ongoing trade volatility.
Thailand Has 100 Days of Oil Reserves Left: PM
Thai Prime Minister Anutin Charnvirakul announced that the nation has roughly 100 days of oil reserves remaining. The government has reduced oil exports to Laos and Myanmar by 25% and 20% respectively, citing the war in the Middle East. Officials...
MB Fund Podcast: Can Can Trump Escape the Middle East?
In the latest MacroBusiness podcast, Nucleus Wealth CIO Damien Klassen dissected the fallout from the Iran‑Israel conflict and its ripple effects on global markets. He highlighted how surging oil prices, supply‑chain bottlenecks and heightened geopolitical risk are reshaping investor sentiment....
Oil Volatility, Fed Caution Cloud Asian Markets
Asia mixed; oil volatility and Fed caution weigh, China holds LPR. Oil spike raises inflation/Strait-of-Hormuz supply risk; Alibaba weakens sentiment. Trade: hedge Asian equities with oil puts. — Viktor Kopylov, PhD, CFA More insights: t.me/si14Kopylov
US Federal Debt Becoming ‘Alarmingly Unsustainable’ as Iran War Fuels Spending: Analysts
U.S. sovereign debt surged to $39 trillion, a level analysts deem alarmingly unsustainable, as war‑related spending on Iran adds pressure. The debt rose $2 trillion in just a few months, with Biden’s administration issuing $4.7 trillion of new 10‑year debt since 2021. Experts...
India’s Gift Nifty Climbs as US Markets Slip, VIX Spikes
Global Market Update: Gift Nifty +68.00 (0.29%) 23,188.00 DowJones -203.72 (-0.44%) 46,021.43 Nasdaq -61.73 (-0.28%) 22,090.69 India Vix +4.1125 (+21.97%) 22.8350 S&P 500 -18.21 (-0.27%) 6,606.49
China Keeps Rates Steady, Warns Against Long‑Duration Bonds
China holds LPR 1y 3.00% /5y 3.50% for 10th month. PBOC uses liquidity ops and fiscal support; growth soft, yuan pressured. Risk: weak domestic demand. Trade: avoid long-duration China bonds. — Viktor Kopylov, PhD, CFA. More insights: t.me/si14Kopylov
India Maps Supply Chain Gaps in Pharma, Textiles, Fertilizers Amid West Asia War
India’s commerce ministry has launched a comprehensive audit of critical supply chains in pharma, textiles and fertilizers as the West Asia war threatens global trade. A detailed questionnaire asks firms to disclose import dependence, source countries and the substitutability of...
Energy Crisis Persists Beyond Iran War Resolution
The global energy crisis will drag on even if the Iran war ends tomorrow: Energy Outlook Advisors https://t.co/xPMnRiP3fO
China's Central Bank Boosts Gold Reserves in February
The People’s Bank of China added another ton of gold to its war chest in February. BUY GOLD, WEAR DIAMONDS. https://t.co/NQFzVWhA4P
CBDC Neutrality, Bank Liquidity, and the Hybrid Nature of Bank Deposits
Central‑bank digital currency (CBDC) could remain neutral for banks if the central bank recycles CBDC balances back to them at rates equal to deposit‑funding costs, preserving credit creation and profit margins. Deposits, however, are hybrid instruments that provide money‑like services...
China’s Resilience Disproves Collapse Forecasts; Models Need Revision
How is this new, @zriboua? The “China collapse” call has been made for decades Mostly because it doesn’t fit Western models. Yet it hasn’t broken. Maybe the model is wrong, not China. #China #Economics #Macro #Geopolitics #Trade
Lifting Iran Sanctions Would Let World Buy Oil, Not Iran
Bessent's suggestion to lift sanctions on Iranian oil is INSANE Congressman Scott Perry explains that the world gets the oil but Iran won't get paid b/c it's outside the global financial system now He's clinically INSANE #Oil #Iran #EnergyCrisis #Geopolitics #Markets
Middle East Conflict Fuels Energy, Economic Concerns for Europe Executives
European executives surveyed by The Conference Board anticipate that the ongoing Middle East conflict will exacerbate macro‑economic instability, drive higher energy costs, and cause logistics disruptions over the next six months. The poll identified these three factors as the most...
Iran-Israel Standoff Threatens Permanent Gulf Security Collapse
Iran won’t fold & Israel won’t stop, writes @gbrew24 Gulf security is damaged, possibly permanently. There’s no organic off-ramp—only a political one, and it runs through Washington. #IranWar #Geopolitics #EnergyCrisis #Hormuz #SystemicRisk #MiddleEast https://t.co/egfbcSbtHj
Japan, Australia, Brazil Team Up for De‑China Rare Earths
“Japan’s bid to build a “de-Chinafied” rare earth supply system – with Australia and Brazil on-board” https://t.co/LpDn23sEHq
US-Iran War: Latest News
The Argus roundup highlights how the escalating US‑Iran conflict is reshaping energy markets. The International Energy Agency is boosting oil stock releases, while a temporary Jones Act waiver is prompting US crude cargoes to sail under foreign flags. WTI premiums...
Rising Energy Prices Heighten Recession Risks in Asia
With global energy prices going vertical, the next metrics to watch are recession probabilities of net energy importers - particularly in South and Southeast Asia https://t.co/ehwgNBNqH4
Nationalise Gas and Swap It for Fuel
The Australian government is weighing a windfall tax on gas company profits, with Treasury conducting modelling ahead of the May 2026 budget. Finance Minister Jim Chalmers will ultimately decide whether to introduce the levy. Meanwhile, Energy Minister Katy Bowen says her...
This Is when Trump Will Need an Iran-Conflict Offramp if Oil Prices Aren’...
President Donald Trump’s team is scrambling for measures to curb soaring crude prices as the Iran‑Israel war enters its third week. Options on the table include a U.S. Navy escort for tankers in the Strait of Hormuz and a rapid...
Russia Eyes Export Bonanza Amid Global Energy Crisis
Russia is leveraging a U.S. waiver and global oil shortages to boost its crude and product exports. Seaborne product shipments jumped 25% to 2.6 million barrels per day, while crude exports rose about 10% in March. Production gaps caused by OPEC‑plus...
The Terrifying Combination of an Oil Recession and AI
The article warns that a simultaneous oil recession and rapid AI-driven automation could devastate U.S. manufacturing employment. It highlights how a structural shift—China’s 2003 WTO entry—already altered supply chains, and now a cyclical oil price collapse is intersecting with AI...
Oil Set for Weekly Surge as Mideast War Heads Toward Fourth Week
Oil prices are set for a weekly rise as the Middle‑East conflict enters its fourth week, with the Strait of Hormuz effectively shut and strikes persisting across the region. Brent crude traded above $108 per barrel, marking a more than...
US Jones Act Waiver May Alter PX Trade Flows
The United States has issued a 60‑day waiver of the Jones Act, temporarily eliminating the requirement to use U.S.-flagged vessels for domestic shipping. This regulatory shift coincides with a sharp rise in para‑xylene (PX) prices following the Iran‑Israel conflict, prompting...
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MIDDLE EAST SPILLOVER: Don’t Call It a Fuel Crisis, but Prepare to Pay
South Africa is confronting an acute fuel supply shock after the Strait of Hormuz closure disrupted Middle‑East oil flows. The government assures no station shutdowns, yet industry‑level allocation bans have left diesel pumps dry in several provinces. A strategic petroleum...
Brazil's MGO Demand Slumps Due to Export Tax
Brazil imposed a 50% tax on diesel and marine gasoil (MGO) exports on 12 March, causing demand in Brazilian ports to collapse. Suppliers report "non‑existent" MGO volumes as buyers shift to very‑low‑sulfur fuel oil (VLSFO). Even domestically flagged vessels now prefer...
Better Days Coming to Cuba?
A wave of international assistance is reaching Cuba, highlighted by a Russian oil tanker and humanitarian convoys from several nations. The fuel deliveries aim to alleviate chronic shortages that have crippled transportation and tourism. Commentators on social platforms expressed cautious...
Oil Prices Swing Amid Middle East Supply Uncertainty
It’s been another rollercoaster day in the oil market with both benchmarks trading in a wide range (CNBC charts below). Between the remarks from officials in Washington DC and those out of Israel — both following the attacks on energy infrastructure...
SOFR Path Change Relative to 2/27
The Atlanta Federal Reserve’s Market Probability Tracker released a revised three‑month average SOFR outlook covering June 2026 through December 2028. The new projection lifts the expected rate path relative to the February 27 forecast, placing the current target range at 350‑375 basis points....
Live Discussion: War with Iran and Global Consequences
A live discussion hosted by Geopolitical Futures featured analysts Kamran Bokhari and Andrew Davidson alongside Chairman George Friedman to dissect the evolving war between the United States, Israel and Iran. The conversation centered on Iran’s protracted, asymmetric war strategy, U.S....
$166 a Barrel? Middle East Oil Gives Clue to Where All Prices Could Be Headed if Iran War Drags On
Dubai crude surged to a record $166 a barrel as U.S.-Iran hostilities crippled transit through the Strait of Hormuz. Brent crude has risen nearly 48% since the conflict began, trading around $106, while WTI lags but faces upward pressure. Analysts...
The Oil Shock May Not Stop at the Pump
The article warns that a disruption in the Strait of Hormuz could turn an oil price shock into a fertilizer shock, raising food costs and broadening inflation. About one‑third of global fertilizer exports, especially nitrogen‑based urea, pass through Hormuz, and...
Putin Is Counting on Western Disunity to Hand Him Victory in Ukraine
Russian President Vladimir Putin sees victory in Ukraine hinging on growing disunity among Western allies. Despite stalled battlefield gains, he maintains maximalist demands, rejecting any peace that leaves most of Ukraine independent. Recent shifts—including U.S. aid cuts under President Trump,...
Kaluderovic in Foreign Policy: The Drone Attrition Tap
Clara Kaluderovic’s recent Foreign Policy piece highlights the accelerating attrition of Iranian drones deployed across the Middle East. While Iran continues to mass‑produce low‑cost loitering munitions, battlefield losses are outpacing its output, forcing Tehran to tap deeper into regional supply...
Qatar's Gas Strike Halts 30% of Global Nitrogen Fertilizer
The real problem is nitrogen-based fertilizers, which are, as a rule, derived from oil-based naphtha or natural gas. Currently, Qatar takes natural gas produced at its South Pars gas field, which was recently struck by Iran, to make ammonia and...
Kaluderovic in Fox News: Trump’s Strike on Iran Deals a Major Blow to Putin’s War Machine in Ukraine
President Trump ordered a precision strike against Iranian facilities believed to be supplying drones and missiles to Russia. The attack destroyed key stockpiles in Syria, cutting off a significant portion of Tehran’s arms flow to Moscow’s war effort in Ukraine....
Middle East War Will ‘Amplify’ Volatility in Global Supply Chains: Cosco
Cosco Shipping warned that the ongoing war in the Middle East will heighten volatility across global supply chains and speed up regionalization and nearshoring trends in 2026. The liner‑shipping and terminal operator highlighted weak macro‑economic momentum and a severe external...
Gongadze in Ukrainska Pravda: “Europe at War.” Friends of Europe’s Warning Shot
Myroslava Gongadze wrote in Ukrainska Pravda that Europe is effectively at war, citing the ongoing Russian invasion of Ukraine and its spill‑over risks. She referenced a warning from the Friends of Europe think‑tank that the continent faces escalating security threats...
Gold and Silver Fall Amid War, High Oil Prices
We are in the midst of a hot war in the Middle East, with Oil prices kissing $120, a cooling (pre-war) labor market, and the odds of a recession ticking up from modest levels. And despite all of this geopolitical economic...
Brent May Need $175 to End Shortage, Says Currie
“Get long and buckle up,” says Jeff Currie. It took -$37 to clear oversupply during Covid Currie's "mirror image" approach indicates it may take $175 BRENT TO CLEAR THIS SHORTAGE That’s not volatility—that’s a regime shift #OilMarkets #Brent #EnergyCrisis #Commodities #Macro #Supercycle
Markets Misread Recovery; Shocks Create Worse Baselines
Markets still think this snaps back. It won’t, writes @elerianm This isn’t “transitory” It’s multiple equilibria, where each shock creates a new, worse baseline. #Macro #EnergyCrisis #SystemicRisk #Markets #Oil #Geopolitics
Iran’s Hormuz Leverage Pushes US to Ease Oil Sanctions
As an indication of how Iran is effectively playing its cards, its control of the Strait of Hormuz has forced Treasury Sec. Bessent to consider lifting sanctions on Iranian oil already at sea. US SANCTIONS ON IRANIAN OIL BACKFIRE. https://t.co/K8vL4AFi49
US New Home Sales Plunge 17.6% Amid Rising Rates
US new home sales collapsed by a stunning 17.6% MoM in January, the most in 13 years. If that’s not bad enough, since the US-Israeli war in Iran began, mortgage rates have surged. TRUMP'S IN TROUBLE. https://t.co/He7ZCDPq2p
Closed Hormuz Threatens $220 Oil, Near Recession
OUT NOW - how @Rory_Johnston sees it: Unless the Strait of Hormuz opens soon, $220 oil and a recession is "almost guaranteed." $300+ oil & Global Depression are possible. Apple🔊 https://t.co/hBJ1sBFqgN Spotify📽️ https://t.co/fnf6ENfHbf 1/3 https://t.co/gvV2pR4qXu
Mearsheimer: International Law and Diplomacy Are Dead, Trust Erodes
Distinguished UChicago Prof. John Mearsheimer on trusting US diplomacy: “International law has gone out the window, and diplomacy has gone out the window. You can’t trust the Israelis or the Americans as far as you can throw them.” https://t.co/bXOC31MInp
Market Signals No Near-Term Rate Cuts, Slightly Higher Policy Outlook
Also in today's newsletter. Per the WIRP function on the terminal, not only are imminent rate cuts off the table, the market-implied policy path is actually *slightly* higher over the rest of the year now. https://t.co/FRganNTPH0
War's Ongoing Cost: Economic Damage Compounds Daily
Every single day that this war goes on, the more the economic damage just compounds. This is the key line right here from @tracyalloway https://t.co/T6hrWxL1Op https://t.co/t8Qos0vB1A
Administration's Desperate Oil Plan Fuels Iran's Wartime Sales
“.. The plan .. reflects the administration’s desperation to reduce oil prices, encouraging Iran to sell more oil even while it is at war ..” @nytimes https://t.co/MWCiL3jrqQ https://t.co/wCWv18Be6N
Apple Shifts Production: 25% of iPhones Made in India
Apple Now Makes About 25% of iPhones in India After China Pivot. More on this in the Chartbook Top Links today. https://t.co/qnDkCJRBFG
EU and Australia Near Trade Deal Completion Next Week
The world moves on: "EU, Australia set to conclude trade talks early next week" https://t.co/0QuEvOaog1