Today's Global Economy Pulse
Australia's April CPI eases to 4.2% as core inflation hits 2024 high
Australia’s consumer price index slipped to a 4.2% annual rise in April, missing the 4.4% consensus as a temporary fuel excise cut trimmed transport costs. At the same time, the trimmed‑mean core inflation gauge rose to 3.4% year‑over‑year, the highest level since late‑2024, keeping pressure on the Reserve Bank of Australia’s inflation target.
China’s Central Bank Pledges Stability in Capital Markets Amid Global Sell-Off
China’s central bank has elevated capital‑market stability to a major task for 2026, pledging to safeguard stock, bond and foreign‑exchange markets amid heightened global volatility. The announcement came as the Shanghai Composite slipped 1.39%, reflecting broader sell‑offs triggered by the US‑Israel conflict and rising oil prices. The People’s Bank of China also signaled research into liquidity‑support tools for non‑bank financial institutions and a continued crackdown on illegal financial activity. These measures aim to preserve a favourable monetary environment for the 15th five‑year plan.
ECB Sees Higher Inflation, yet Hesitates to Tighten
Big plot twist for the ECB; yes their forecasts might be out of date, but the HICP fcts are reasonably punchy for 2026 ... smart move; the big question though is; why not tighten? They see materially higher inflation and...
Taiwan’s New Southbound 2.0: Rewiring the Indo-Pacific Beyond China
At the 2026 Yushan Forum, President Lai Ching‑te recast Taiwan’s New Southbound Policy as a broader Indo‑Pacific strategy that blends trade, technology, democratic cooperation, and security. The forum attracted over 70 leaders from 22 nations, underscoring Taiwan’s push to deepen...
Monetary Policy Decisions
The European Central Bank kept its three key policy rates unchanged on 19 March 2026, maintaining the deposit facility at 2.00 %, the main refinancing rate at 2.15 % and the marginal lending facility at 2.40 %. It highlighted that inflation is hovering around the...
US Foreign Policy Alienates Allies, Prompting Australian Rethink
An obvious comment on US Foreign Policy: US foreign policy is self-defeating. a. spend a year beating up on allies, threatening to take land (Greenland) from a NATO ally b. wage a trade war against your allies. Sure the tariffs were...
Europe’s Gas Crisis Sparks Powerlessness, Calls for Referendum
The problem with soaring gas prices in Europe is that it is deja vu all over again when it comes to extreme powerlessness. FWIW - It is hard to imagine Europe gets through this without a voter referendum on powerlessness. Needless to...
Bank of England Votes Unanimously to Leave Rates Unchanged at 3.75%
The Bank of England’s Monetary Policy Committee voted unanimously to keep the Bank Rate at 3.75%. The decision comes as inflation remains above the 2% target, pressured by higher energy prices and geopolitical uncertainty. By holding rates steady, the MPC...
As War in Iran Roils Energy Markets, Europe Pays Price of ‘Dependency’
Europe’s energy markets were jolted on Thursday as military strikes on Qatar and Iran drove natural‑gas prices above €70/MWh and Brent crude past $114 per barrel, levels not seen since the 2022 Russia‑Ukraine war. French officials highlighted that 90% of...
Geopolitical Oil Surge Threatens India's Inflation and Rupee
Surging Crude Oil Prices: The geopolitical unrest caused Brent crude oil prices to spike past $115–$118 per barrel. As a major energy importer, this poses a significant risk to India's inflation outlook, the rupee, and corporate profit margins.
Commodity Prices, Not War, Driving Canada’s Inflation Surge
the Canadian government is gaslighting Canadians again to buy into the inflation is rising because of the U.S./Israel vs. Iran war... not true. tell them commodity prices were rising, in an uptrend, and (rising) more strongly than $TSX stocks, before the...
If the Iran War Takes Oil Above US$120 a Barrel, How Bad Could the Shock Get?
The escalating US‑Israel‑Iran conflict has pushed crude prices above $120 a barrel as Iranian forces strike Gulf oil and LNG infrastructure and the Strait of Hormuz remains closed. Analysts warn that the disruption could evolve into a prolonged supply shock,...
The U.S. Dollar: Short Vs. Long Term
Peter Zeihan argues the U.S. dollar is set for a multi‑decade rise, driven by unrivaled naval power, favorable demographics, abundant food and energy resources, and a looming manufacturing expansion. In the near term, however, policy choices—tight immigration, high tariffs, regulatory...
Filipino Jeepney Drivers Struggle as Oil Prices Surge: ‘What We Earn Goes to Diesel’
The war in the Middle East has driven global oil prices higher, pushing Philippine diesel costs up more than double. Jeepney drivers like Toni Prado now earn as little as 200 pesos a day, down from roughly 1,000 pesos, prompting...
Which Country Is the Biggest Loser From the Energy Shock?
The article examines how the recent global energy shock is disproportionately harming South Asian economies. Nepal faces long queues and rationing for cooking gas, Sri Lanka has ordered Wednesday factory shutdowns, and Pakistan has closed schools and shifted universities online. The...
US 2‑yr Yield Surges, Inflation Breakevens Spike Post‑War
The US 10yr yield is up about 35 bp since the start of the war and the 2yr yield is up about 43 bp. The 2yr break even is up 57 bp to 3.38% and the 10yr breakeven is...
Should the Gulf Arab States Join the War Against Iran?
Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates have sophisticated air forces capable of striking Iranian missile and drone sites, but they have so far limited their involvement to defensive measures. Their fleets include modern F-15s, Eurofighter Typhoons and advanced F-16...
ECB Warns Of ‘Material Impact’ From Iran War
The European Central Bank left policy rates unchanged on Thursday, echoing expectations, but warned that the ongoing Iran‑Israel conflict could have a material impact on inflation across the euro area. The ECB’s statement highlighted heightened uncertainty around energy supplies and...
The Daily Feather — Pareidolia Spells No Fed Relief
The U.S. producer price index (PPI) posted a 0.7% headline increase, with core and core‑core measures both rising 0.5%, outpacing market forecasts. The stronger‑than‑expected numbers underscore lingering inflationary pressure despite recent easing in consumer price trends. The post uses the...
All That Glitters: Gold’s Exceptional Performance in 2025 and Portfolio Implications
Gold delivered the strongest return among major asset classes in 2025, climbing roughly 64% and breaching $5,000 per ounce in early 2026 with an 18% January surge. The rally was fueled by heightened geopolitical risk, a weaker U.S. dollar, aggressive...
MEPs Clear Path for Full Adoption of EU–US Trade Deal
The European Parliament’s trade committee voted 29‑for‑0 to eliminate EU tariffs on most US industrial goods, clearing a key hurdle for the EU‑US trade agreement signed in July 2025. The deal retains a 15% US tariff on EU imports while...
Rising Yields Threaten US Economy More Than Iran Conflict
Yields surging are a far more existential threat than Iran at this point. No — this is not coming from a political angle. The US cannot afford this war. ▪️Interest payments nearing ~5% of GDP ▪️Military spending ramping up ▪️Trade deficits worsening as...
European Gas Prices Soar, Boosting US Nat Gas Asset Value
European gas is now >6x the price of US gas. US nat gas assets becoming more valuable by the day.
China Cutting Back Fertiliser Exports
China has imposed strict limits on fertilizer exports, banning nitrogen‑potassium blends and many phosphate varieties while allowing only a few products such as ammonium sulphate. The curbs affect up to 40 million tonnes, roughly half to three‑quarters of last year’s shipments,...
Germany Mulls Windfall Tax Amid Iran War‑driven Fuel Surge
Germany weighs windfall tax as Iran war drives fuel price surge https://t.co/9SNpQgvAXy via @KowalczeKamil https://t.co/YrOXXrSiVq
Iran Conflict Threatens Chip Makers' Middle East Fuel Supply
"Iran war could cause supply chain kinks: Taiwan and Korea, top chip producers, rely on the Middle East for nearly 70% of their crude oil imports, and 20-25% of LNG imports." - BofA on AI capex
The United Nations Has a Blueprint for Opening the Strait of Hormuz
Shipping through the Strait of Hormuz has been halted, driving oil prices above $100 per barrel and threatening global food security. The United Nations, recalling its 2022 Black Sea Grain Initiative that enabled safe Ukrainian grain shipments, could apply a...
ECB Holds Rate at 2% Amid War‑Driven Risks
#ECB leaves deposit rate at 2.00% as expected. Says war poses upside inflation risks, downside growth risks. Says to decide based on core inflation, transmission strength. Says not pre-committing to particular rate path. https://t.co/9tExdmlBDB
UK's Weak Economy Meets Hawkish Bank, Outlook Grim
The UK has managed to combine the weakest economy with the most hawkish central bank. Bound to end well
Shanghai Certifies 30 Overseas Offices Amid China’s Investment Sales Pitch
Shanghai certified 30 new regional headquarters and 15 overseas‑funded R&D centres, including eight Fortune 500 firms. The certifications highlight continued foreign interest despite a three‑year decline in China’s realised FDI. Shanghai now hosts over 1,000 HQs and 647 R&D sites, reinforcing...
No Tax Increases, $40 Trillion Debt Looms
There's zero talk of raising taxes to fund this. $40 trillion in National Debt coming soon... https://t.co/zauvCi19PA
Oil Price Surge Threatens Poor as Egypt Cuts Power
Brent crude, global oil benchmark, rose by 8% to $116 a barrel. This will hurt everyone, especially the poor badly. Egypt has already restricted electricity use.... https://t.co/WIVr01CV5C
China’s New 5-Year Plan: Preparing for a Hostile World
China’s 15th Five‑Year Plan (2026‑2030) repositions the country for a hostile international environment, emphasizing geopolitical resilience over the optimistic growth narrative of previous plans. Domestically, the plan pushes for technological self‑reliance and reinforces traditional industries such as metallurgy and shipbuilding,...
US Export Sales Flat; Wheat, Soybeans Miss Expectations
🇺🇸U.S. export sales were modest all around last week with wheat and soybeans falling below all expectations. The corn volume is a bit more normal for the week historically but somewhat underwhelming in the context of 2025/26's record pace. https://t.co/3LR2fLgFuR
Cleveland Fed Predicts 3% CPI, Hikes Outweigh Cuts
The Cleveland Fed is now forecasting a 3% CPI Inflation reading for March, up from 2.4% in February. There is now a higher probability of a Fed rate HIKE (8%) in April than a rate CUT (0%). https://t.co/yoWBJBbDDN
COSCO Shipping Ports to Expand Global Port network...Chinese State-Owned Property Giant’s Profit Hits Ten-Year low...Tencent Makes OpenClaw-Based Tool Available on...
State‑owned COSCO Shipping Ports announced a push to grow its global terminal footprint, focusing on Southeast Asia, South‑America and Africa to mitigate rising geopolitical risks such as disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz. Meanwhile, China Merchants Shekou reported a 74.7%...
Oil Spike Is Tax, Not Rally, Hits Consumers
Brent near $110. WTI at $96-103. Strait of Hormuz blocked. $XLE at all-time highs. $SPY at 2026 lows. This is not an oil rally. This is a tax on every consumer, every margin, every growth assumption. https://t.co/QUhNdfGuZ7
Grant Licenses to Producers if Export Ban Looms
If an oil export ban is coming, they should grant export licenses to anyone increasing production
US Waivers De‑Stigmatize Russian Oil, Boosting Putin
Big thanks to @Aaron_Krolik for including me in this great @nytimes story on how Russia is a major beneficiary from the sharp rise in oil prices. Temporary US waivers of Russia sanctions are de-stigmatizing Russian oil and giving Putin a...
UK Yields Surge, Highlighting Limited Fiscal Headroom
UK 2 year yield + 23bps UK 5 year yield +22bps UK 10 year yield +13bps About that fiscal headroom 🤔
BOE Holds Rates, Signals Readiness to Act
BOE ‘stands ready to act’ as it unanimously votes to hold rates https://t.co/5iLfNT8re7 via @tomelleryrees https://t.co/Trmh2hkLBw
Gold Slides as BoE Signals Two 2026 Hikes
#Gold takes more beating as #BoE grows hawkish mkt prices TWO rate hikes in 2026 #forex
Market Turns Hawkish, Forecasts Only 9bps Cuts in 2024
The market's implied forecasts for Fed rate forecasts through 2026 now only projects -9bps of rate cuts this year. So the market is more hawkish than the Fed's forecast - the market was more dovish than the Fed two weeks...
Fed Shifts to Fewer Rate Cuts, Embraces Higher‑For‑Longer Policy
Fed held at 3.5-3.75%. 7 of 19 members see ZERO cuts in 2026. Dot plot: 1 cut this year, 1 more in 2027. Six months ago the consensus was 3+ cuts. Higher for longer isn't a threat anymore. It's policy. https://t.co/vbJxcKjym9
Live Updates: ECB Interest-Rate Decision Unfolds Now
Follow our live blog for the latest news and updates on the European Central Bank's interest-rate decision https://t.co/Nc9piHPEdR via @jrandow https://t.co/nzehlM7joh
World Portfolio Shows Limited Drawdowns Amid High Inflation
GS: So far, the drawdown for the world portfolio has been limited, especially compared to stagflationary shocks World portfolio 1-year drawdowns (yellow shading denotes periods with US inflation above 3% and rising) https://t.co/Dv0BimDxGJ
Dollar Surge Fizzles: Limited Follow‑Through After Fed Hold
Limited Follow-Through Dollar Today After Yesterday's Surge: The US dollar rallied strongly during the Federal Reserve’s press conference yesterday as rates jumped in response to what was widely seen as a hawkish hold, especially given Chair Powell’s… https://t.co/L0b4ab2cDv https://t.co/JikD6d1Xxj
Brazilian Real Set to Rally Amid Higher Oil Prices
We've now reached the point where - four years ago after the invasion of Ukraine - the Brazilian Real began to rally and outperform everyone else. As we settle into a higher-for-longer equilibrium on oil, the same will now start...
Canada’s Inflation Dip Mirrors Slowing Money Supply Growth
Canada's inflation dropped from 2.3% in Jan. to 1.8%/yr in Feb. Canada’s money supply (M3) is growing at 4.0%/yr. That’s a bit below Hanke's Golden Growth Rate of ~6-8%/yr, a rate consistent with Canada's 1-3%/yr inflation target. THE INFLATION STORY = A...
Traders Revise BOE, ECB Rate Forecasts Hours Pre‑Decision
Traders shift BOE, ECB rates outlook just hours before policy decisions https://t.co/HA0mTq7RsS via @greg_ritchie @alicegledhill1 https://t.co/CmyGExhjII
Eurozone Data Imminent: Construction Output, Notes, Q4 Labor Costs
5 min until key EZ data drop; Construction output for, checks notes ... January, and Q4 labour costs.