Today's Global Economy Pulse
Fed's Kashkari warns inflation remains far too high
Minneapolis Fed President Neel Kashkari told CNBC that headline CPI was 3.8% in April and core CPI rose 2.8% year‑over‑year. He said the persistent price pressure could unanchor consumer expectations and may force the Federal Reserve to act more aggressively.
War in Iran and Afghanistan Threatens Central Asia’s Gateway to Global Markets
The escalating war between Iran and the Taliban‑Pakistan front is jeopardizing Central Asia’s planned southbound trade routes. Ongoing fighting threatens the Uzbekistan‑Afghanistan‑Pakistan railway, the TAPI gas pipeline, and the CASA‑1000 power line, while U.S.–Israel attacks on Iran disrupt shipping and airspace. With the Afghanistan‑Pakistan corridor effectively shut, Central Asian nations are reconsidering reliance on Iran and are shifting trade toward the Caspian “Middle Corridor” and China‑linked routes. Investor confidence is waning as security risks and cost premiums rise.
Trump Lit the Fuse. Now Gas Prices Are Exploding
Gasoline prices in the United States jumped from $2.98 to $3.58 per gallon within two weeks, with California hitting $5.40. The surge follows a series of geopolitical shocks tied to former President Trump’s foreign‑policy moves, including renewed sanctions on Russian...
Trump Administration to Announce New Trade Investigations
The Trump administration is set to announce new trade investigations under Section 301 of the 1974 Trade Act, targeting practices such as excess manufacturing capacity, forced labor, digital service taxes, and currency manipulation. The inquiries, led by the Office of the...
World’s Top Bauxite Producer Considers Export Curbs After Supply Glut Leads to Price Slump
Guinea, now the world’s largest bauxite producer, is weighing export curbs as a glut has driven prices down roughly 50% since January 2025. Export shipments surged 25% to 183 million tonnes last year, far exceeding licence‑based production plans. The government is...
2 U.S. Senators Propose Gas Tax Holiday Until October in Response to Rising Prices
Two Democratic senators, Mark Kelly and Richard Blumenthal, introduced the Gas Prices Relief Act to suspend the 18.4‑cent‑per‑gallon federal gasoline tax until October 1. A companion bill will be filed in the House by Rep. Chris Pappas. The proposal aims to...
'Largest Ever' Oil Reserve Release Agreed by 32 Countries
The episode explains that 32 IEA member countries have agreed to release a record 400 million barrels of emergency oil reserves—the largest ever—to curb soaring energy prices amid the US‑Israel conflict in Iran. IEA Executive Director Faith Beryl notes this release is...
Maersk Forced to Ship Fuel From US, Europe as Asia Bunkers Start to Run Dry
Maersk has begun sourcing marine fuel from the United States and Europe to supply its Asian fleet, after recent disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz left key Middle‑East and Asian bunkering hubs unable to meet demand. Chief commercial officer Karsten...
Russia Mulls 10% Budget Cut Amid Falling Oil Revenues
"The Russian government is preparing a possible 10% cut to all 'non-sensitive' spending in this year's budget, sources told Reuters, but the final decision will hinge on the sustainability of the oil price rise triggered by the war in Iran. As...
World Leaders Will Release 400 Million Barrels of Oil to Stabilize Prices
World leaders agreed to release 400 million barrels from strategic reserves, the largest coordinated IEA drawdown ever, to counter a sharp Brent price surge after the Iran war began. Despite the announcement, Brent crude rose to about $91 per barrel, indicating...
Strait of Hormuz Strikes Fuel Fresh Fears over Bond Volatility
Bond market volatility spiked on Wednesday after three cargo vessels were struck near the Strait of Hormuz, pushing 10‑year U.S. Treasury yields from just above 4.14% to near 4.20%. The attacks revive concerns over oil‑supply disruptions, keeping Brent crude roughly...
Italy to Ask for Immediate EU ETS Suspension
Italian Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni announced that Italy will request an immediate suspension of the EU Emissions Trading System for fossil‑fuel‑fired power generators, arguing the scheme adds roughly €30/MWh, or about a quarter of household electricity costs. The move is...
Core PCE Outpaces CPI Due to Weighting Differences
We still need Feb PPI , but Feb core PCE looks much stronger than Feb core CPI. On Friday, Jan core PCE will also be stronger than Jan core CPI. This is not shelter. Instead, it reflects the differences in...
Iran Attacks Oil Facilities and Dubai Airport as Concerns Mount over Global Energy Supplies
Iran escalated its campaign against Gulf allies by launching drones that struck Dubai International Airport, wounding four people, and by hitting commercial vessels in the Strait of Hormuz. The Iranian military also announced plans to target banks and financial institutions...
World Briefs | Russian Oil Output Dips Slightly in February Despite Sanctions Pressure
Russian crude output slipped 0.6% in February, falling to 9.184 million bpd, as sanctions pressure persisted but a U.S. waiver helped Indian imports rebound. Saudi Arabia simultaneously boosted production to over 10.1 million bpd, citing a contingency plan amid escalating U.S.-Israeli strikes...
Daily Memo: Oil Markets and Shipping Disruptions
The International Energy Agency’s member states voted unanimously to release 400 million barrels of oil from their emergency strategic reserves, a move that more than doubles the 182 million‑barrel drawdown in 2022 when Russia invaded Ukraine. The sizable release is intended to...
CPI Understates Inflation; Core Services Surge, Fed Faces More Pressure
More to come but things to keep in mind… CPI headline figures of 2.4% are artificially suppressed by the lapse in data collection during the six week government shutdown. Under the hood, there is a disturbing acceleration in core service sector...
Japanese Automakers Earned Canada's Trust. Will China Do the Same with EVs?
Ottawa has opened the Canadian market to Chinese electric‑vehicle imports, reviving a debate that first surfaced when Japanese automakers entered in the 1960s. At that time, unions feared job losses, but Japanese firms eventually built plants in Ontario, creating thousands...
Market at Fair Value After 4% S&P Pullback
In order to help us visualize the various stress points in the market (and in case they get worse), I created several dashboards over the weekend. First up is the commodity & currency heat map. From left to right are the...
Ex-Goldman Commodity King Warns 'No Policy Response Can Meaningfully Reverse Oil Prices'
Jeff Currie, former head of commodity research at Goldman Sachs, warned that the ongoing disruption of the Strait of Hormuz makes oil prices virtually unstoppable in the near term, and no policy response—such as strategic petroleum reserve releases or government...
Middle East Conflict Squeezes India's LPG Supply, Spikes Black‑market Prices
The primary driver is the escalating conflict in West Asia involving Iran, Israel, and the US. This has effectively choked the Strait of Hormuz, the maritime gateway for nearly 90% of India's LPG imports. While the government has prioritized domestic supply...
Countries Must Seek Energy Independence Through Renewables and Nuclear, Says John Kerry
Former US secretary of state John Kerry warned that the recent oil price surge caused by the war in Iran underscores the security risks of dependence on fossil fuels. He called for countries to achieve energy independence by accelerating deployment...
Can the IEA Put a Lid on the Price per Barrel by Releasing Oil Stockpiles?
The International Energy Agency announced a historic release of 400 million barrels of emergency crude, the largest drawdown in its history and about one‑third of members’ total reserves. The move aims to temper soaring oil prices triggered by the U.S.–Israel conflict...
Prolonged Middle East Conflict Will Spike Oil and Inflation
Everyone thinks this war will be quick, clean, and somehow end with peace across the Middle East. That’s fantasy. We’ve heard this story before. Iraq. Afghanistan. Politicians promise “mission accomplished” and the real problems start right after. Markets are still far too optimistic...
Trump’s Actions in Iran and Venezuela Show Limits of U.S. Sanctions
The Trump administration abandoned its long‑standing maximum‑pressure sanctions campaigns against Iran and Venezuela, turning to direct military operations to achieve regime change. Repeated sanctions over the past years failed to topple Tehran’s leadership or remove Nicolás Maduro, partly due to...
Thai Oil Fund Spending B1 Billion a Day on Subsidies
The Thai government is using the state‑run Oil Fuel Fund to subsidise diesel and gasoline as global oil prices climb, spending over one billion baht a day on the program. Losses are projected to hit ten billion baht by March 18,...
Legislation Aims to Exempt Small Businesses From Trump’s Latest Tariffs
Senate Democrats introduced the Small Business Liberation 2.0 Act to shield small importers from President Trump’s newly imposed 10 percent tariffs. The bill mandates a 90‑day refund of duties already collected and bars unreasonable price hikes for five years. It follows a...
US Inflation Stable Ahead of Iran Shock
US consumer price index held steady in February at a 2.4% year‑over‑year increase, matching the previous month. The pause came just before the US‑Israel conflict in Iran sparked a sharp jump in oil prices, pushing gasoline above $3.50 per gallon....
Stablecoins Enable Uber‑Style Surge Pricing, Threatening Fragmentation
Nice to see that @HyunSongShin has officially recognized that stablecoins open the door to an "Uber Surge Pricing" type liquidity market. [Actual gas markets also clear in a similar way, notably the NBP balancing point system.] The below screenshot is from...
Conflict Is a Supply Shock, Not Demand‑driven Inflation
“More specifically, this conflict represents a supply shock, not demand driven inflation, which from a monetary policy perspective makes a very significant difference, as a supply shock will reduce demand, consumption, and consequently growth.” - Rieder
Government to Review Planned Fuel Duty Rise as Iran War Causes Price Surge at Pumps
The UK government will review its planned September removal of the fuel‑duty freeze after the Iran war drove crude oil prices to about $90 a barrel, pushing petrol up 6p and diesel up 12p in a week. Prime Minister Keir...
Core Inflation Remains Steady Over Past Three Years
Here's monthly seasonally adjusted core. It's been pretty stable for the last three years (perhaps not at the level you'd prefer.) https://t.co/1r4VLXWf1S
ECB Warns of Inflation Risks Despite Muted Growth Concerns
The first is interesting here, as the cut-off date was well before the flurry in oil prices. You can basically at this make a reasonable case for anything from 0.1pp to 0.4pp extra on the 2026 headline forecast.
Iran Urges US to Exit Middle East, Pivot to Asia
Iran's demand is the U.S. leave the Middle East. Basically, do the pivot to Asia for real.
White House Claims Iran Destroyed; Inflation Fuels War, Buy Bitcoin
They think we're stupid. The @WhiteHouse said Iran’s nuclear facilities were "obliterated" in June 2025. Now we're escalating again? Why? And we're expected to finance this spending via inflation? Fiat is perpetual war, debt, and inflation. Opt out. Sell bonds. Buy bitcoin. https://t.co/EUQm4727iz
India Backs IEA Emergency Oil Release, Pledges Market Stability
Very pleased to read the Government of India's supportive statement for @IEA's collective action to release emergency oil stocks to address disruptions in global oil markets – and that India stands ready to take appropriate measures to support global market...
Fed Rate Path Repriced: Terminal Rate 3
Rather dramatic repricing of the Fed rate path vs 3 weeks ago before the Iran war. Cut cycle terminal rate now 3.28 with odds increasing that cut cycle is already over https://t.co/VYJRS9oWdI
Halting Non‑Iranian Tankers in Gulf Sends Shockwave
yes, managing to stop all non-Iranian oil tanker traffic in the Persian Gulf is a tremendous impact.
Aramco Restores 70% Flow, Yet Critical 30% Still Blocked
Saudi Aramco resumed 70% of oil shipments via Red Sea pipeline. Markets celebrated. But 30% is still offline. And the Strait of Hormuz — the main artery — remains contested. 70% of normal isn't normal. https://t.co/8vfhBzo9cZ
Fed Likely Holds; Crypto Rescue Trade Still on Standby
The Fed is 99% expected to hold rates next week. April cut odds just dropped to 11%. The "Fed pivot will rescue crypto" trade has been on standby for two years now.
Join Hedgeye Live: Data‑Driven Fed, Economy, Market Talk
I’m looking forward to being “Hedgeye Live" in May. It will be a candid, data-driven discussion between me and @KeithMcCullough on the Fed, the economy, and markets — Get your tickets:https://t.co/MHeVrqQao0 #federalreserve #powell #dimartinobooth #economy #hedgeye https://t.co/YcfP4M0qvV
Europe Scrambles to Mitigate Prices After Trump’s Iran War
Europe rushes to deal with price fallout from Trump’s Iran war https://t.co/khA8dhNhMj via @johnainger @donatopmancini https://t.co/3tcyP5Pu0U
Rising Taxes Trigger Housing Supply Surge, Fuel Doom Loop
if you keep increasing the taxy levy without real benefits, eventually new supply (some forced) comes into market and lowers price, which then increases the tax rate burden as a % of asset that makes it very unattractive this is the...
Hormuz Shutdown Spikes Brent Upside Risk Despite Parity
The Strait of Hormuz remains almost shut, even as the risk premium priced into Brent currently (blue) is on par with that after Ukraine (black). The Strait is 3 times more important for global oil supply than Russia, so risk...
Japan's 80 Million‑Barrel Release Beats IEA's Forecast
Rather than the IEA's own 400 million barrels, the most important number right now is Japan's announcement that's releasing from Monday (March 16th) ~80 million barrels from its reserve. Those are actual flow barrels that will hit the market immediately...
Crude and Gas Prices Mirror Each Other After Nine Days
9 trading days into the conflict, crude and gas price trajectory has been very similar oil: https://t.co/O0orfuxpnw
Goods Inflation 3% Above 30‑Year Average, Tariffs & AI Bottlenecks Driving Surge
Before adding in geopolitical inflation risk, goods inflation outside food and energy is already running about 3% faster than what prevailed for most of the last 3 decades Much of this is tariffs, but bottlenecks from the AI boom are also...
ZIRP Turned Emergency QE Into Permanent Financialization Policy
Quantum leap forward in financialization with ZIRP, but original sin (to your handle) was the Maestro using monetary policy to make us richer than our economy could grow. The Rubicon on ZIRP policy was QE 2. That’s when emergency gov’t...
Rate Cuts Surge, yet Long-Term Yields Climb
fun fact: the @bankofcanada has decreased rates 7 times since September 4th, 2024... both Canada 5-year and 10-year yields are higher since they started... #oops
Benign CPI Masks Deeper Inflation, Limits Fed’s Options
Why the Fed can't do much with a CPI report that's benign on the surface: It doesn't at all resolve the dilemma Fed officials face when the inflation measure they care about most is less encouraging and a major energy...
Oil Dip, Not Economy, Drives 10‑year Yield Drop
10-year yield pulled back from 4.21% to 4.11%. Not because the economy is fine. Because oil retreated and gave the bond market a breath. One headline away from 4.25%. https://t.co/62rQysSFLG