Today's Global Economy Pulse
Australia's April CPI eases to 4.2% as core inflation hits 2024 high
Australia’s consumer price index slipped to a 4.2% annual rise in April, missing the 4.4% consensus as a temporary fuel excise cut trimmed transport costs. At the same time, the trimmed‑mean core inflation gauge rose to 3.4% year‑over‑year, the highest level since late‑2024, keeping pressure on the Reserve Bank of Australia’s inflation target.
Advance Notice of a Meeting
On March 10, 2026, the Federal Reserve announced a closed Board of Governors meeting set for 10:30 a.m. on Tuesday, March 17, 2026. The session, held at the Fed’s Washington, D.C., headquarters and via audio/video link, will be restricted from public observation under CFR §12b.7. The agenda lists discussion of monetary‑policy issues as the primary item. A post‑meeting summary will be posted on the Fed’s website after the meeting.
Quiet Recession Ends; Early Movers Set for Growth
A lot of businesses quietly struggled the last few years. Valuations came down. Growth slowed. But few people wanted to call it what it was. A silent recession. GDP technically grew, but inflation grew faster. Now the cycle may be shifting. And the operators positioning today could...
War in Iran Sends Farmer’s Fuel, Fertilizer Costs Soaring
The Israel‑U.S. attacks on Iran have turned the Strait of Hormuz into a virtual no‑go zone, halting shipments of crude, natural gas and key fertilizers. Blocked exports of nitrogen, ammonia and phosphates pushed urea prices 71% to $600 a ton,...
US Oil Slides Below $80 as War Risk Fades
US oil prices fall over -16% on the day and officially drop below $80/barrel. Geopolitical risk premiums are being rapidly priced-out. The oil market says the war is ending.
What If the Iran War Ended Today? How Long Before Oil Is Normal?
An analyst cited by the Wall Street Journal estimates that if the U.S.-Israeli conflict with Iran ended today, shipping traffic in the Persian Gulf would normalize in about two weeks and oil production would return to pre‑war levels within two...
Authorities Probe Spike in Portuguese Exports to Russia-Tied Countries
Portugal’s finance ministry has opened an investigation after statistics revealed a sharp rise in exports to countries closely aligned with Russia. Direct sales to Russia dropped from over €26 million in 2021 to near zero, while exports to Kyrgyzstan, Kazakhstan, Azerbaijan,...
Brent's Record Volatility Mirrors War Uncertainty
Brent becomes extremely volatile amid confusion about war’s duration Brent futures traded in a record daily range of more than $35 per barrel on March 9, as traders reacted to conflicting signals about the closure of the Strait of Hormuz...
A Quick Note on Where We Are in the War
The post notes that oil prices have slipped from recent highs while gasoline costs continue to climb, highlighting a disconnect between crude and retail markets. It contrasts the Trump administration’s quick, low‑cost intervention in Venezuela with the more complex Iran‑focused...
China, India Warn Carriers on Higher Pricing Tied to Middle East Conflict
Chinese and Indian transport ministries have publicly warned major container carriers, including Maersk and MSC, against imposing excessive surcharges linked to the Middle East war. The regulators highlighted concerns over service suspensions to the region and fee hikes running into...
Multiple Macro Threats Could Stall Rate Cuts, Spark Defaults
"Iran is only part of the story. There’s also the emergence of AI as a disruptive technology capable of suddenly wiping out, as well as creating, wealth for shareholders and creditors. There are the soured loans that are starting to...
Opinion: Waiving the Jones Act Won’t Lower Gas Prices—Tanker Markets Prove It
The op‑ed argues that waiving the Jones Act would not reduce U.S. gasoline prices because foreign‑flagged tankers are more expensive to charter than domestic Jones Act vessels. Using Worldscale data, the author shows a Houston‑to‑New York freight rate of WS410 equals...
Wide Boundary News: The Iranian War, Rising Gas Prices, and the Single Point Failure
The latest Wide Boundary News episode dissects the U.S. and Israeli offensive against Iran and the looming threat of a Strait of Hormuz closure. It argues that oil, often seen as a modest 3% of GDP, actually underlies virtually all...
Finmin Seeks Parliamentary Approval for ₹1 Lakh Cr ‘Economic Stabilisation Fund’ to Face War-Induced Volatility
India’s Finance Ministry has asked Parliament to approve a ₹1 lakh crore Economic Stabilisation Fund aimed at cushioning the economy from market turbulence caused by the war in West Asia. The fund is part of the second batch of Supplementary Demands for...
Market Flash – January 2026
Global equity markets began 2026 on a firm footing despite heightened geopolitical tension, with emerging‑market equities delivering an 8.85% return in U.S. dollar terms. In contrast, U.S. growth stocks slipped 1.51% while small‑cap and value segments posted solid gains. Bond...
Europe Remains Top Destination for U.S. LNG Cargoes Despite Asian Supply Squeeze Amid Middle East War
Europe continues to dominate U.S. liquefied natural gas (LNG) shipments, absorbing the majority of cargoes despite a tightening Asian market. The recent Middle East conflict has slashed regional energy exports, reducing the incentive for U.S. producers to divert LNG to...
How IEA Emergency Oil Releases Actually Work
It's a while since the last IEA emergency oil release, so I put together a briefing note on how it works in practice as it follows a strict technical and diplomatic protocol. The below is a (simplified) guide to follow...
Trump's Quick End Threatened by Hormuz Oil Leverage
trump may want to end the iran war quickly. but closing the strait of hormuz or even threatening it keeps oil high and the conflict alive. @gzeromedia
Trump's Immigration Crackdown Fails to Deliver Jobs for US-Born Workers
One year after President Trump’s immigration crackdown, net migration turned negative in 2025—the first decline in 50 years—yet U.S.-born unemployment rose and labor‑force participation fell. Immigrants continue to dominate manual‑intensive sectors such as construction and food services, leaving firms unable...
Saudi Aramco CEO Issues Stark Warning: Iran War Could Bring ‘Catastrophic’ Shock to Global Oil
Saudi Aramco CEO Amin Nasser warned that the Iran‑Israel‑U.S. war could trigger a catastrophic shock to global oil markets if the Strait of Hormuz remains closed. The conflict has already halted up to 20% of world petroleum trade, pushed Brent...
Hennion & Walsh's Mahn: Headline Risks Increase Volatility, Don't Stop Bull Run
The episode features three main segments: an interview with trader Peter Robbins about his new book, The Trader's Journey, where he emphasizes realistic expectations, personalizing strategies, and the psychological side of trading; a discussion with analyst Alison Hadley on how...
The $150 Oil Shock Might Be Exactly What Our Future Needs
Oil prices are soaring toward $150 per barrel after Iran closed the Strait of Hormuz, prompting analysts to warn of a potential disaster. Economic historian Carlota Perez argues that such high energy costs could instead serve as a catalyst, pushing...
Crisis Leadership
Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas Governor Eli Remolona Jr. warned that monetary policy has reached the limit of its effectiveness as the Philippine economy faces deep‑seated structural problems, not just liquidity shortages. Simultaneous shocks from oil prices above $100 per barrel...
Fighting for Relevance Isn’t Everything
Russian forces are altering Shahed drone tactics, moving strikes closer to Ukraine’s front lines due to long‑range control difficulties and stronger air defenses. The new approach could see 1,000‑2,000 drones attacking a narrow sector in waves, threatening to overwhelm command...
De Minimis: Case Aiming to Revive Exemption Can Proceed, Court Rules
The U.S. Court of International Trade has lifted the stay on Axle of Dearborn Inc. v. Department of Commerce, allowing the company to pursue a revival of the de minimis exemption that permits duty‑free imports under $800. Detroit Axle argues the August...
How Labor Market Power Shapes the Impact of Monetary Policy
A new Federal Reserve paper shows that labor‑market power dramatically reshapes how monetary policy affects employment and wages. Firms with low monopsony power increase their wage bills about 50% more than high‑monopsony firms after a 25‑basis‑point rate cut. Oligopsonistic markets...
Iran War Casts Shadow on Valley’s Famed Handicraft Industry
Handicraft exporters in Kashmir warn that the escalating Iran‑US‑Israel conflict is casting a shadow over their Gulf‑focused market. The war threatens to raise freight costs, delay shipments and dampen discretionary spending, echoing disruptions experienced during the Russia‑Ukraine war. The sector,...
Iran Conflict Spikes Energy, Stalls Fed’s Inflation Fight
The Fed was already struggling to get inflation back to 2% before Trump opted for an all-out confrontation with Iran. Now, elevated energy prices, if sustained, risk delaying that progress further, entangling the central bank in yet another challenging debate...
Oil and LNG Traffic Through Hormuz Appears Minimal
Doesn't seem like there's a lot of Oil/LNG moving through the Strait of Hormuz at all https://t.co/5QrGSihDEA
Meta Hikes Fees for Advertisers to Cover Europe's Digital Taxes
Meta Platforms will begin charging advertisers a "location fee" to offset Europe’s digital services taxes, starting July 1. The fee mirrors each country’s tax rate—3% in France, Italy and Spain; 5% in Austria and Turkey; and 2% in the U.K.—and...
Supply Strength Keeps Oil Prices Low, Diminishing Hedge Demand
Oil market isn't going the way Iran hoped. Amazing what the Saudi/UAE pipelines can do, plus the (very clear) threat of SPR release. Plus, oil crisis are defined by price x duration. Without a feared long disruption, investors aren't chasing oil futures...
Trump Denies US Strike; Evidence Points to American Tomahawk
When asked whether the US bombed an Iranian elementary school, Trump replied: “No. In my opinion and based on what I’ve seen, that was done by Iran.” But the NYT and other sources report that it was a U.S. Tomahawk strike. https://t.co/dyjpwhA9vS
Trump and Netanyahu May Empower Iran Hardliners
The FT reports that at the end of the day, the regime in Iran will probably remain standing and the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps is positioned to make the regime more hardline. HAVE TRUMP AND NETANYAHU OPENED THE DOOR FOR THE...
Navy Escort Through Hormuz Eases Supply Fears, Oil Falls
This Bloomberg headline crossing now may explain the new downturn in crude oil prices (repost) --- *US NAVY ESCORTED AN OIL TANKER THROUGH THE STRAIT OF HORMUZ
US Oil Slides 15% to $80, 32% Below Peak
*US OIL PRICES EXTEND DECLINE, FALL 15% TO TRADE NEAR $80/BBL April 2026 WTI futures are now down ~32% since Sunday night's peak https://t.co/9QugACQ3Q0
Housing Stagflation Boosts Buyer Leverage Amid Seller Fatigue
The housing market is hitting stagflation. Jobs are cooling, but the unauthorized war in Iran is keeping oil prices and rates high. Sellers are losing patience and re-listings are at a decade high, giving buyers more leverage. https://t.co/tK43N2ajFT
Live US CPI Trade: NQ, Gold, Forex Opportunities
Trade US CPI LIVE tomorrow with Boris and Sam starting at 8AM ET / 12 GMT @fxflow They'll be hunting for opportunities in NQ, Gold and Forex https://t.co/9c2DFZTDGK
Kirkuk Pipeline Offers Iraq's Sole Hormuz Bypass
Oil production around Kirkuk, in Iraqi Kurdistan, is connected to global markets via a pipeline to the Turkish port of Ceyhan This is Iraq’s only crude supply that can bypass the currently-closed Strait of Hormuz Shut-ins in the Basra area by the...
ING Predicts Oil Market Shock if Hormuz Closes
What impact will closing the Strait of Hormuz have? ING takes a guess featured in the Chartbook Top Links of today. https://t.co/aiQTNxvQMb
Hormuz Closure Reverses WCS‑WTI Spread Amid Sour Crude Flow
Most of the crude that ships out of the Strait of Hormuz is medium-to-heavy sour Western Canadian Select at Houston vs WTI, which reflects a clean light-heavy quality differential, had weakened (widened) on Venezuela reentering the USGC market—Hormuz closure entirely reversed...
China’s Foreign Policy Bets on Self‑reliance, Distrust of Others
China's main foreign policy strategy assumption seems to be that every other leader in the world is a stone cold moron and that they need to protect themselves as much as possible by not relying on anyone else for imports...
Japan Sets NdPr Price Floor, Investors Remain Unmoved
Japan becomes the second country to lock in a NdPr price floor. Countries seem to recognise the issue with rare earths but equity investors seem not to... https://t.co/5GI3bRV7K3
Markets Question Reopening Timing Amid Falling Oil Prices
The hard thing for markets is reading this while oil prices are falling — I think the question is whether markets correctly anticipate a reopening before it happens or whether it needs a big headline.
Supreme Court Strikes IEPPA Tariffs, Highlighting Endless Instability
The Supreme Court ruled IEPPA tariffs illegal on Feb 20. That's less than 3 weeks ago, but feels like eons. That's Trump 2.0. Nothing's ever stable. You have to wonder if we'll even remember war with Iran 3 weeks from...
Rapidan Energy Hosts Iran Risk Update for Clients
Well attended @RapidanEnergy Iran update huddle this morning for our Geopolitical Risk Service clients. If you're managing risk in energy and macro markets and don't know us yet, this might be a good time to become acquainted. info@rapidanenergy.com. https://t.co/qRL4heI0Si
India Redirects LPG to Homes Amid Gas Shortage
INDIA GAS SHORTAGE 🇮🇳 ⚠️ India invoked emergency powers to redirect LPG away from industrial users to households LNG supplies to petrochemical and power plants are being curbed The crisis in the Middle East is throttling India’s LPG and LNG supply https://t.co/ujn00XTSnf
Venezuela's Bolivar Plummets 87%, Calls for Dollarization
On this week's Hanke's #CurrencyWatchlist, the Venezuelan bolivar ranks as the WORLD'S WORST currency. The bolivar has depreciated by 87% against the USD over the past year. VENEZUELA'S PATH TO RECOVERY = REPLACING THE BOLIVAR WITH THE DOLLAR. https://t.co/rbalL5aTfh
China Buffers Iran Oil Shock with Stockpiles, EV Shift
China Has Spent Years Preparing for the Iran Oil Crisis—Massive oil stockpiles and a shift to electric vehicles help insulate the economy from supply disruptions in the Mideast @BrianSpegele https://t.co/xq1mMRdTGu https://t.co/xq1mMRdTGu
China's Jan‑Feb Soy Imports Hit 7‑year Low
🇨🇳China imported 12.55 million metric tons of soybeans in Jan-Feb, the smallest volume for the period in 7 years. The Brazilian harvest was slower, U.S. cargoes were still en route and customs clearing times were extended. Expectations for March are...
Strait of Hormuz Disruption Threatens 20% of Global Oil Flow
🎙️ I was thrilled to rejoin @TheStalwart and @tracyalloway on the Odd Lots podcast to discuss the historic and ongoing disruption of traffic through the Strait of Hormuz, through which ~20% of the world's oil flows. This is it. This is...
Dollar Stalls Near 99.50 as Risk Aversion Eases
The Dollar stallout around 99.50 aligned to channel, some Fib standing and of course the curb on severe risk aversion around oil prices. That said, not a lot of pullback in the softened rate cut expectations around the FOMC's 2026...