Today's Global Economy Pulse
Fed's Kashkari warns inflation remains far too high
Minneapolis Fed President Neel Kashkari told CNBC that headline CPI was 3.8% in April and core CPI rose 2.8% year‑over‑year. He said the persistent price pressure could unanchor consumer expectations and may force the Federal Reserve to act more aggressively.
Northeast US Diesel Exports Surge to Europe
New York Harbor briefly became a net diesel exporter as traders shifted ultra‑low sulfur diesel (ULSD) shipments to Europe. A sharp rise in northwest European jet fuel prices created a price arbitrage window, flipping the usual discount relationship between European and NYH diesel. As of the latest data, six ULSD cargoes have departed NYH, with a total of nearly 2 million barrels slated for Europe—the highest northeast US diesel export level since September 2024. The European price now carries a $0.24 per USG premium over NYH rates.
Systematic Strategies for Inflation‑Driven Market Regime Shift
With the recent inflation shock and a rapidly changing market landscape, it’s a good time to think more systematically. On our latest @excessreturnpod, we’re joined by @AahanPrometheus to do just that. We cover: - inflation and energy dynamics - shifting expected returns - trend following -...
Will Conflict in the Middle East Boost China’s Renewable Energy Sector?
The Iran‑Israel‑U.S. war has driven Brent crude to its highest level since 2022, rattling global markets. Despite a 5% quarterly dip in the Hang Seng, China’s large strategic crude reserves and aggressive renewable‑energy rollout keep its growth outlook intact. Renewable‑energy...
President Regrets Appointing Central Banker Who Defied Rate Cuts
Wild story: President appoints someone to the central bank recommended by his own finance minister. The appointee resists the president's demands to approve bigger rate cuts, and now the president says he "stupidly" followed the minister's advice, leading to "the...
Bitcoin, Stocks Rally because of Chatter that Iran Is Ready to ‘End the War’ as Dollar Index Sinks Below 100
Bitcoin surged past $68,000 on March 31, spurred by Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian’s remarks that Tehran could end the Iran‑US‑Israel conflict under certain conditions. The broader cryptocurrency market gained roughly $40 billion, with Ethereum climbing to about $2,100. Simultaneously, U.S. equities...
China Pushes CIPS to Compete with Western Payment Networks
China is accelerating reforms to its Cross‑Border Interbank Payment System (CIPS) to position it as a viable alternative to Western‑dominated payment networks. The first major rule change since 2018 expands CIPS beyond renminbi‑only clearing, adding multicurrency settlement and broader foreign‑payment...
Powell's Reassurance Drops Mortgage Rates Despite Oil Surge
Mortgage rates are lower today thanks to Jerome Powell. Why? Because he put fears of Fed rate hikes to bed during a Q&A session with Harvard students yesterday. Despite surging oil prices, he said “We feel like our policy’s in a...
Rate‑Hike Odds Surge, Triggering Massive Market Unwind
January: everyone positioned for rate cuts. Now: hike odds above 50%. That's the largest positioning reversal in years — and the mechanics of unwinding a crowded consensus take months, not weeks. Every hot inflation print, every hawkish Fed signal triggers another exit from...
Gold Surges As Reports Indicate Trump Plans To End The Gulf War
Gold surged 2.6% on Tuesday, pushing COMEX June futures to $4,676.40 an ounce, while silver jumped 6.3% to $75.30. The rally followed Wall Street Journal reports that President Donald Trump is considering a diplomatic path to end the Gulf conflict...
Iran and Russia Profit as Oil Prices Surge Amid War
A month into this war: Iran is still exporting oil & to more customers Iran is making more money for its oil because prices are up Iran has effectively installed a tollbooth to enter and exit the Persian Gulf Russia is making more...
#161 - Lyn Alden - Why Everything Feels Harder - Debt, Inflation & The System
In this episode, Lyn Alden explains how the modern fiat monetary system—rooted in central bank ledgers and fractional‑reserve banking—creates perpetual debt and inflation that erodes wages and savings, especially for lower‑income households. She argues we are in the later, more...
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Understanding the IS-LM Model: Curves, Characteristics, and Limitations
The IS‑LM model, introduced by John Hicks in 1937, visualizes the interaction between the goods market and the money market by linking output and interest rates. The downward‑sloping IS curve reflects equilibrium where investment equals savings, while the upward‑sloping LM...
Could Turkey Help Mediate an End to the Iran War?
Amid the escalating Iran‑Israel conflict, Turkey is actively promoting itself as a regional stabilizer and potential mediator. Ankara has hosted Iranian officials, engaged Gulf states, and highlighted its ability to talk to all parties, while the EU Commission and the...
Warren Buffett Says Iran Bomb Would Make Nuclear Disaster Harder to Avoid
Berkshire Hathaway chairman Warren Buffett warned that the rise to nine nuclear‑armed states is reshaping global risk. He singled out Iran and North Korea, saying a bomb in Iran would make a nuclear disaster harder to avoid. Buffett predicted that...
A Month Into the Conflict: What Has Actually Changed?
A month after the Iran conflict escalated, oil prices jumped from $65 to $98 per barrel, prompting the Federal Reserve to raise its inflation outlook. Treasury yields rose 50 basis points in three weeks, eroding bonds' safe‑haven status. Market expectations...
Oil $100 Baseline Becomes Permanent After Iran Threat
WTI pre-market: $101.84. Brent: $108. Up 47% for the quarter. Iran is demanding sovereignty over the Strait of Hormuz — the chokepoint for 20% of global oil supply. That's not a negotiating position. It's a line in the sand with no realistic...
Govt Unveils New Rules to Boost Ecommerce Exports
India’s Central Board of Indirect Taxes and Customs (CBIC) has rolled out sweeping reforms to boost e‑commerce exports, effective April 1. The long‑standing Rs 10 lakh (≈ $12,000) value cap per courier consignment has been eliminated, allowing higher‑value shipments to move directly via courier....
Iran War Triggers Global Inflation Spike and Market Turbulence
The International Monetary Fund says the Iran war is creating a global, asymmetric shock that is pushing oil prices to record highs, slowing growth and stoking inflation expectations. European consumer confidence has slumped and traders across the world report wider...
"We're Now In The Middle Of A Market Correction" Admits Longtime Wall Street Bull | Ed Yardeni
Ed Yardeni, long‑time bullish economist, has revised his outlook after the Iran‑related oil shock, calling the market a correction and raising U.S. recession odds to 35%. He warns that bond market vigilantes are returning worldwide, increasing the risk of a...
Middle East Conflict Drives US Treasury Rally as Yields Slip 7 Bps Amid Oil Surge
Heightened risk from Iran‑related fighting sent investors into safe‑haven Treasuries, pulling the 2‑year yield down 5 basis points to 3.87% and the 10‑year to 4.36%. The rally unfolded even as Brent crude rose about 2% to over $100 per barrel,...
Large US Agricultural Delegation to Explore Philippines Prospects
The United States is sending a record agricultural delegation of 58 firms and industry groups to the Philippines from April 13‑16, aiming to convert the 2024 Trump‑era trade agreement into real export growth. The Philippines, the 10th‑largest market for U.S....
Philippines External Position Improves as Net Liability Narrows in 2025
The Philippines narrowed its net external liability to $50.8 billion, or 10.4% of GDP, by the end of 2025, improving from $52.1 billion three months earlier. External assets grew 1% quarter‑on‑quarter, outpacing a 0.4% rise in liabilities, driven by higher reserve assets...
We Never Learn
The article reflects on the Israel‑U.S.‑led war in the Middle East and its ripple effects on the global economy, especially energy markets. It argues that the conflict’s resource‑driven motives are exposing a worldwide vulnerability to oil price shocks. The author...
Salalah Disruptions Send Carriers on Indian Trades Back to Adding Pakistan Calls
Operations at Oman’s Salalah port were suspended after a drone strike on Saturday, forcing a gradual restart this week. The disruption compounds existing schedule pressures from the broader Middle East crisis, prompting major carriers such as Maersk and Hapag‑Lloyd to...
India's First Iranian Oil Cargo Since 2019 Headed to Gujarat Coast
India is set to receive its first Iranian crude cargo since 2019, with the Aframax tanker Ping Shun carrying about 600,000 barrels to Vadinar, Gujarat. The shipment follows a U.S. 30‑day waiver allowing Iranian oil sales on the water amid the...
China Takes Direct Role in Hormuz Security After Iran War
china involving itself directly in the business of hormuz strait security is an important unintended consequence of the iran war.
Market Narratives Flip Fast; Update Your Thesis.
Q1 lesson: Cuts → Hikes. Stable oil → $112. Safe → Risky. Narratives flip faster than positioning. If you're still running January's thesis in Q2, you're not wrong in theory. You're just wrong in the market that actually exists. --- https://t.co/c8qhOLV3nI
Foreign Central Banks Slash Treasury Holdings to 2012 Low
Foreign central banks have cut their holdings of Treasuries at the New York Fed to the lowest level since 2012. The selling has come as oil importers like Turkey, Thailand and India raise cash through asset sales to prop up...
U.S. Labor Market Slows to Low‑Hire, Low‑Fire Cycle
The labor market can be "roughly steady" with a lotta hiring matched by a lotta firing, or few fires matched by few hires. The U.S. is moving into a low hire-low fire equilibrium, which really hurts folks—the young, those (re-)entering...
April’s £216 Household Hit; Bigger Bills Ahead
Awful April costs households £216 — but the worst is yet to come - The Times and The Sunday Times https://t.co/tGe0bSY5CX
US Industrial Production Flat, Not Soaring.
My friend Thematic Markets gets this wrong -- US industrial production (using the series that leaves out chips, which is still benefitting from Biden era policies) is flat not way up 1.x https://t.co/pYA4LZEt8F
New US LNG Capacity Too Small to Replace Qatar Losses
LNG production in Qatar, normally ~80 mm tonnes, has been effectively OFFLINE since March 2. The new Golden Pass LNG export terminal in the U.S. will add only 18mm tonnes at full capacity. NEW SUPPLY CAN’T OFFSET WAR-DRIVEN LOSSES. https://t.co/tVmip8DsaM
Yuan's Global Reserve Share Declines Over Five Years
Well, there are a lot of meanings of global reserves currency that go beyond the currency held in formal foreign exchange reserves. But the yuan's share of reserves has actually slipped over the last 5 years 1/2 https://t.co/h07pcXMaYn
Sanctions Crumble as Iran Conflict Fuels Oil Crisis
Step 1: US and Israel attack Iran. Step 2: Iran counterattacks and shuts the Strait of Hormuz. Step 3: Oil prices soar. Step 4: To mitigate the damage, sanctions are lifted on Russia’s shadow fleet. Conclusion: Good. The ill-conceived sanctions regime is finally falling...
King Charles' Washington State Visit Sparks Anticipated Debate
Plenty to talk about when King Charles goes to Washington for a state visit next month: https://t.co/ZAB8zSFGx3
Rate‑cut Bets Collapse, Biggest Positioning Reversal in Years
January: everyone was long rate cuts. Now: hike odds >50%. That's not a rotation. That's the largest positioning reversal in years — and the unwind isn't finished. $SPY -3.4%. $QQQ -4.2%. The price tells you where we are in that unwind. --- https://t.co/mDbRSIwQT2
Fed Pledges Policy Actions to Sustain Low Inflation Expectations
Kansas City Fed President Jeff Schmid: Inflation expectations have been low because the central bank has previously acted to make sure inflation will stay low. "It is now our job to follow through with policy actions that validate those expectations."
Iran Still Controls Hormuz, Selectively Filtering Tankers
"The regime has lost control" is wrong @EYakoby Iran is allowing more ships through Hormuz selectively It's sorting tankers by friends who pass for free, neutral parties that pay, and enemies that don't pass There may be a tactical uptick in flows,...
California's Middle East Oil Imports Drop Below 30%
"Previously"?? Like in 2015? In 2025, less than 30% of oil imported into CA was from the Middle East. It's been less than 50% of imports since at least 2017.
Sticky Inflation Pushes Rate Cuts to Q3/Q4
Well, the good news in all of this, assuming it's actually coming to a close, is it hasn't lasted long enough to do material impact to the labor market. The bad news is we probably locked in stickier inflation which...
Gold Surges as War De‑escalation Rumors Emerge
Gold rallies on rumors of a potential off-ramp in a war. Markets never cease to surprise me…🤣🤣
Iran's Hormuz Claim Locks in Permanent War Premium
$CL WTI pre-market: $101.84. $BNO Brent: $108. Iran demanding sovereignty over the Strait of Hormuz. That's not a negotiating position. It's a non-starter — and everyone knows it. The war premium is permanent until proven otherwise. --- https://t.co/DwGuXTrsgJ
Russia's 2024 Growth Outlook Cut to 0.8%
MOSCOW, March 31 (Reuters) - The Russian economy will grow by 0.8% this year, down from a forecast of 1% a month ago, according to a Reuters poll of 16 analysts on Tuesday, echoing an earlier government announcement that the...
Iran Oil Shock Spikes US Inflation Expectations to 2025 Highs
"Unsurprisingly given the Iran war oil shock, consumers’ average and median 12-month inflation expectations surged in March to levels last seen in August 2025, when US consumers awaited more tariff announcements from the US federal government." - The Conference Board...
US‑Israel War Choice Triggers Iran Closing Hormuz
Forget the Western propaganda and spin. The US and Israel engaged in a war of choice against Iran. Iran counterattacks and shuts the Strait of Hormuz, one of the world’s 8 important chokepoints. DAMAGED PARTIES THROUGHOUT THE WORLD SHOULD SEND A BILL TO TRUMP...
Insights on Managing China’s Rare Earth Export Controls
China's Rare Earth Export Controls Commentary from @Camrjohnson and @pstAsiatech ...excellent comments from Cameron here on navigating China's Rare earth controls...... https://t.co/Ue3q820lYO
Central Banks' Dollar Reserves Inch up, Growth Still Modest
Dollar reserves held by the world's central banks rose a bit in q4 -- But the broad story remains one of modest reserves growth relative to the global economy, or the pace of reserves growth from 03 to 13 1/ https://t.co/B7D4KndRLn
NY Fed Custodial Treasury Holdings Drop Significantly
The FT has a good article on the recent fall in the Treasuries held by the New York Fed's custodial account 1/ https://t.co/q3XrJ1bvlZ
Trump Claims Hormuz Will Reopen Automatically After U.S. Withdrawal
JUST IN: President Trump says the Strait of Hormuz will reopen “automatically” once the U.S. exits
Recession Risk Doubles Normal, yet Stays Under 50%
If you're asking whether 30% recession risk is bad, compare it with the right baseline. Normal is about 14%. So yes, we're still below 50%—but we're also roughly double normal. Seems troubling. https://t.co/2dO5Qjmi3q