Today's Global Economy Pulse
Australia's April CPI eases to 4.2% as core inflation hits 2024 high
Australia’s consumer price index slipped to a 4.2% annual rise in April, missing the 4.4% consensus as a temporary fuel excise cut trimmed transport costs. At the same time, the trimmed‑mean core inflation gauge rose to 3.4% year‑over‑year, the highest level since late‑2024, keeping pressure on the Reserve Bank of Australia’s inflation target.
Ethiopia Holds Key Rate for Sixth Time as Oil Shock Rekindles Inflation Fears
The National Bank of Ethiopia kept its benchmark lending rate at 15 percent for a sixth consecutive meeting, maintaining a tight monetary stance as global oil prices surged to about $105 per barrel. The central bank cited inflation containment despite a recent slowdown, with February inflation easing to 9.7 percent. Meanwhile, the seven‑day interbank rate rose to 17.9 percent, indicating lingering liquidity pressures. Ethiopia’s economy is projected to grow 9.2 percent in FY 2024/25, driven by services and industry.
A Year Into Tariffs, US Businesses See Declining Sales, Plan Price Increases: KPMG Survey
A year after the Trump administration’s tariff wave, KPMG’s February 2026 survey shows U.S. firms facing shrinking margins, higher operational costs and a growing tendency to shift tariff burdens onto customers. Thirty‑four percent of companies now pass more than half of...
A Year Into Tariffs, US Businesses See Declining Sales, Plan Price Increases: KPMG Survey
A year after the Trump administration’s sweeping tariffs, U.S. firms report falling margins and higher operational costs, prompting many to shift tariff burdens onto consumers. The KPMG survey shows 34% of companies now pass more than half of tariff costs...
Chinese Imports Are Large, Stable, and Thus Stabilizing
Hi @Brad_Setser I'd be a fool to argue with you about bofp issues. But what did I say? Are Chinese imports large? Yup. (Could they be larger? Sure but that is a different point). Are Chinese imports stable? Yup. (Might...
China‑Pakistan Peace Plan Aims to End Iran War
china and pakistan release five point peace plan for ending iran war. no mention of us and israel call to restore full passage of strait of hormuz (no iran ability to disrupt/charge tolls). initiative should be welcomed by pretty much everybody.
EU Legislators Visit China to Ease Strained Relations
EU legislators visited China for the first time in eight years, aiming to steady relations strained by trade imbalances, human‑rights disputes and Beijing's ties to Russia. The delegation, responsible for market and consumer protection, will discuss digital trade, e‑commerce fairness...
China Denies Energy Bans, Neighbors Left Out
From Belt and Road to belt tightening: China's neighbours get cold shoulder on energy But so far China has offered only vague statements and has yet to even publicly acknowledge the export bans reported by Reuters and others as it focuses...
Warren Buffett Warns He’s Watching Stability of Banking System
Warren Buffett warned that the banking system is showing signs of fragility as it becomes more intertwined with non‑bank players, urging the Federal Reserve to prioritize financial stability. He highlighted the risk that distress at one institution could quickly spread...
Christopher Kent: Reassessing Australian Financial Conditions
In his KangaNews address, Christopher Kent explained how the Reserve Bank of Australia’s Monetary Policy Board evaluates financial conditions every six weeks to set the cash rate. He defined financial conditions as the cost and availability of credit, exchange rates...
Japan and South Korea’s Energy Hedge
The blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has triggered a systemic shock to global energy flows, prompting Japan and South Korea to deepen bilateral cooperation on LNG security. Both nations’ top energy firms, KOGAS and JERA, signed an MOU enabling...
Lisa D Cook: Reflections on Financial Stability
Lisa D. Cook, a Federal Reserve Governor and chair of the Committee on Financial Stability, reflected on the Fed’s evolving approach to systemic risk. She highlighted the Committee’s 2014 creation, the Financial Stability Report’s focus on four vulnerability channels, and the...
Michael Hudson and Steve Keen: How the Global Crisis Will Unfold
Michael Hudson and Steve Keen warned that Iran’s recent attacks on Qatar’s LNG facilities could cut roughly 20 % of global liquefied natural gas, sending oil, gas and helium prices soaring. They argue the resulting energy shock will slash global output by...
India Extends Zero Duty Import of Pigeon Pea and Black Matpe, Retains 30% Tariff on Yellow Peas Till March 2027
India has extended duty‑free imports of pigeon pea (tur) and black matpe (urad) through 31 March 2027, while maintaining a 30 percent tariff on yellow peas. The move follows a dip in domestic pulse production and anticipates supply risks from El Niño and the...
McCormick Resilient Amid Staples Margin Squeeze
Macro: staples face margin squeeze from commodities & tariffs. Key: McCormick volumes resilient; Conagra hit by input inflation. Risk: ongoing commodity headwinds. Trade: long McCormick — Viktor Kopylov, PhD, CFA More insights: t.me/si14Kopylov
Wall St Opens Higher on Mideast De-Escalation Hopes; Monthly Losses Loom
Wall Street opened higher on Tuesday as investors cheered a report suggesting a possible de‑escalation in the Middle East conflict. The Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 325.6 points, or 0.72%, to 45,541.76. The S&P 500 gained 52.2 points, up 0.82% to...
Chinese Carbide PVC Could Temper US Exports to Asia
U.S. suspension‑grade PVC (S‑PVC) prices surged over 55% since the Gulf war began, reaching $1,000‑$1,050 per tonne FOB Houston. In contrast, China’s carbide‑based S‑PVC rose about 36% to $815‑$900 per tonne FOB China, remaining cheaper to produce. Because roughly 80%...
What Happens to Latin America if the Strait of Hormuz Remains Closed?
The author evaluates three scenarios for the Strait of Hormuz after the Iran conflict, focusing on the most likely outcome: prolonged reduced traffic. A sustained closure would tighten global oil and gas supplies, pushing prices higher and triggering inflation across...
China’s Economy Feels the Iran War Shock
The recent U.S.-Israel strike on Iran has choked the Strait of Hormuz, cutting off 40‑50% of China’s seaborne oil imports and adding pressure to an economy already in a three‑year deflationary slump. Beijing’s four‑month oil stockpile and a dual‑track sourcing...
FHFA and Case Shiller Repeat Sales Indexes Continue to Show Further Disinflation
The Federal Housing Finance Agency (FHFA) and Case‑Shiller repeat‑sales indexes reported modest month‑over‑month gains—0.1% and 0.2% respectively—for the three‑month period ending January. More striking is the year‑over‑year slowdown, with the FHFA index up only 1.6% and the Case‑Shiller index up...
The Broken System That Keeps Shipping Crews Stranded in the Strait of Hormuz
Conflict in the Gulf has left roughly 1,900 commercial vessels stranded in the Strait of Hormuz, exposing a systemic failure in maritime ownership and regulation. Seafarers like India’s PK Vijay remain on abandoned ships such as the Mahakal without pay,...
Global Liquidity Watch: Weekly Update
Global liquidity has fallen for a fourth straight week, reaching approximately $187.9 trillion. The decline is driven by a stronger U.S. dollar, weaker collateral values, and a sharp rise in bond‑market volatility. While the People’s Bank of China continues to provide...
How PAPSS Is Fixing Africa’s Cross-Border Payments, Four Years On
The Pan‑African Payment and Settlement System (PAPSS) launched in January 2022 to slash the cost and delay of intra‑African payments by routing transactions in local currencies. Four years on it is live in 19 countries, linking over 160 commercial banks...
World Briefs | Italy Refuses US Aircraft Use of Base on Sicily
Italy denied US military aircraft permission to land at Sicily’s Sigonella base, underscoring a diplomatic rift. India’s diesel exports to Southeast Asia jumped to a seven‑year high, shipping roughly 1 million tonnes—about half to Singapore and 90% by Reliance Industries. The...
Canada’s Trade Deal With Mercosur Alliance Could Revamp Western Hemisphere Trade
Canada is close to sealing a free‑trade agreement with the Mercosur bloc, potentially by September 2026. The deal would connect Canada with five South American economies—Argentina, Bolivia, Brazil, Paraguay and Uruguay—representing 282 million people and about $3 trillion in GDP. In 2024,...
FDA Green List Lets Chinese Firms Dominate GLP‑1 Supply, US Safety at Risk
The FDA’s recent “green list” designation has cleared more than 50% of Chinese manufacturers of GLP‑1 obesity drugs, effectively handing China a dominant role in the U.S. supply chain. Critics warn the move could expose American patients to substandard products...
Bridging Continents: The Future of Middle East-Africa Trade Alliances
The Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) is deepening trade alliances with African nations, creating a new South‑South growth corridor. GCC countries bring abundant capital, sovereign wealth funds, and advanced logistics, while Africa offers natural resources, arable land, renewable energy potential and...
New Strait Strategy Sparks Slugflation, Overvalued Stocks
@jimcramer @carlquintanilla Jim I respectfully disagree with your upbeat assessment (as it relates to equities) of the new strategy to cede control of the Strait. The knock on consequences of this new strategy are broad, inflationary and economic dulling. The policy...
China Lifts QDII Overseas Investment Quota by $5.3 Bn, Highest Since 2021
China's State Administration of Foreign Exchange raised the Qualified Domestic Institutional Investor (QDII) quota to $176.17 bn, a $5.3 bn increase and the largest since 2021. The move aims to satisfy growing domestic demand for offshore assets and signals a broader opening...
The Market Brief
U.S. equity futures rose after reports that former President Donald Trump may end military operations against Iran, even as the Strait of Hormuz stays partially closed. The news eased the pressure that had driven the S&P 500 and Dow toward their...
U.S. President Says America ‘Won’t Be There to Help’ UK
U.S. President Donald Trump warned that the United States will no longer assist the United Kingdom after the UK declined to join American air operations against Iran. The remark was posted on social media while U.S. forces expanded a long‑range...
10‑Year Treasury Yield Rises to 4.4%, Investors Misread Market Signals
The 10‑year U.S. Treasury yield jumped to 4.4% after a volatile climb, prompting investors to overreact to the move. Analysts say the rise reflects lingering inflation worries and a market that has abandoned hopes for rapid Fed rate cuts, while...
Wall Street Futures Rise as Traders Eye Rebound After Week-Long Slump
U.S. equity futures jumped on Monday, with the S&P 500 up 0.8% and Dow futures gaining 500 points, as analysts cite bargain hunting and easing war‑related anxiety. The move follows a week of steep declines across major indices.
Laos - Vietnam Railway Gets Green Light
The Lao National Assembly approved the first phase of a 562‑km standard‑gauge railway linking Vientiane with Vietnam’s Vung Ang deep‑water port. Phase 1A, a 147‑km stretch from the Thai border to the Laos‑Vietnam frontier, will be built under a 50‑year build‑operate‑transfer...
Iran War Triggers Structural Oil Price Upgrade
I don't see any reasonable scenario in which the oil market exits the Iran War in a healthier, more secure condition than where things stood before the war. It's a structural go-forward upgrade to oil pricing, at this stage it's just...
ECB's Vujcic: Inflation Expectation Rise Expected
ECB’s Vujcic says the rise in inflation expectations isn’t a surprise https://t.co/2W4QWes7Uu via @jaskuzmanovic https://t.co/QAtXa5k1AS
China Greets EU Lawmakers, Aims to Mend Strained Ties
China welcomes EU lawmakers' first visit in 8 years as chance to steady strained ties https://t.co/MvadiOAS0R
US Blocks Chinese EVs From Canada Despite Tariff Cut
US won’t allow Chinese EVs from Canada to enter its market, President Donald Trump’s ambassador in Ottawa said, after a January deal in which Prime Minister Mark Carney lowered tariffs on those vehicles Huh?https://t.co/vBvBuGKGqK
Hormuz Closure Threatens Worldwide Economic Collapse, Including US
Hormuz closed==>global economic collapse If you don’t think that affects the US, you need a lesson in reality @thescooter49
Lagarde Confronts Bessent over Iran Damage at G‑7
Lagarde called out Bessent on Iran damage during G-7 video talks https://t.co/cpigdXtjAk via @jrandow https://t.co/bVj2AIUzBq
Fed Aims to Curb Wages to Hit 2% Inflation
The Fed would like this lower to get wage growth back down to 3% or lower to target 2% inflation.
Oil Shock Triggers Rapid Inflation, Demand Collapse, Instability
Maximum risk-off, says @elerianm This isn’t just an energy shock It’s a chain reaction: price → inflation → demand destruction → instability. Markets still don’t see how quickly this cascades. #Oil #EnergyCrisis #Macro #Inflation #Geopolitics
US Defeat Leads to Chaos or China‑led Order
There won't be a TACO, writes @TheMichaelEvery Stop second-guessing a plan you're not going to be told. If the U.S. loses, the outcome is chaos—or a China-led order. Any questions? https://t.co/N9Cl7ZXvUB
Initiating Long Bond Shorts to Bet on Steepening
I am also beginning to leg into long bond shorts against a portion of this position to play for a steepener.
Iranian Drone Strikes Kuwaiti Tanker, Demonstrating Growing Firepower
In Iran's counterattack against the US and Israel, an Iranian drone strike hit a fully loaded Kuwaiti oil tanker near Dubai. Forget the Western propaganda. The Iranians have plenty of firepower. https://t.co/6X12Z8HDBw
Home Prices Slow, Sellers Outnumber Buyers, Prices Set to Drop
US home prices increased 0.9% over the last year, the slowest growth rate since June 2023. There are currently a record 46% more sellers than buyers nationally. Absent manipulation from the Federal Government/Reserve, prices will come down and homes will...
US Tariffs Fluctuated Over 50 Times in Months
"In the months that followed, US tariff policy changed more than 50 times, spanning rate increases, rate decreases, new product exemptions, and new product inclusions." https://t.co/qeG5V7fXwy
Foreign Central Banks Cut UST Holdings to 2012 Low
"Foreign central bank holdings of USTs at NY Fed fall to lowest level since 2012 in wake of Iran war" Via @seaniechaos https://t.co/VIiwJqrZAY
Hormuz Turns Toll Road as VLCC Burns
Hormuz now a pay to pass corridor. From being forced to pay a “toll” to a VLCC attacked and on fire, a day in the maritime mess at the Strait of Hormuz. https://t.co/ENyO92nyeS
Ukraine's Drone Attacks Slash Russian Oil Exports
This is something to keep an eye on. Ukraine has been damaging Russian oil export capacity, via drone. The country's seaborne shipments last week were the lowest since 2022, but unclear if it's the start of a longer trend. ...
Venezuela's Bolivar Plummets 83%, Calls for Dollarization
On this week's Hanke's #CurrencyWatchlist, the Venezuelan bolivar ranks as the WORLD'S WORST currency. The bolivar has depreciated by over 83% against the USD in the past year. VENEZUELA’S TOP PRIORITY = OFFICIAL DOLLARIZATION. https://t.co/AUN4GLdvgF