Today's Global Economy Pulse
Australia's April CPI eases to 4.2% as core inflation hits 2024 high
Australia’s consumer price index slipped to a 4.2% annual rise in April, missing the 4.4% consensus as a temporary fuel excise cut trimmed transport costs. At the same time, the trimmed‑mean core inflation gauge rose to 3.4% year‑over‑year, the highest level since late‑2024, keeping pressure on the Reserve Bank of Australia’s inflation target.
SGX to Launch Asia-Pacific Government Bond Futures- #Wealth #AssetManagement #AssetFinance
The Singapore Exchange (SGX) will debut Asia‑Pacific government bond futures on 20 April, covering sovereign bonds from India, Indonesia, Malaysia, Thailand and the Philippines. The contracts, margined and settled in US dollars, offer three maturities—three, five and ten years—based on FTSE Russell’s new Asia‑Pacific Liquid Government Bond Index Series. By providing a standardized, transparent instrument, the futures enable international investors to hedge sovereign‑rate risk and manage exposure across the region’s emerging‑market bond markets. This launch marks the first exchange‑listed regional government‑bond futures on SGX.
Europe's Inflation Surge Proves It's Not Transitory
If you think Europe's Inflation Re-Acceleration is "transitory", we're on the other side of you https://t.co/jj0TOw0ldU
Georgian Company Strikes Coal Deal with Russian-Occupied Donetsk
Georgian firm George Oil Ltd signed a contract to import coal, metals and chemical products from the Russian‑occupied Donetsk region, planning domestic use and exports to India and Turkey. The deal arrives despite the EU’s full ban on Russian and...
2026-04-01: Iran Doubles Oil Revenue, Strengthens Strait of Hormuz Control Amid Military Conflict
Iran announced legislation to levy transit fees and require cargo disclosures for ships passing the Strait of Hormuz, effectively turning the chokepoint into a revenue‑generating control zone. Despite U.S. threats to target Iranian oil facilities, Tehran’s oil exports have held...
Russia Offers Fertiliser Supplies to Global South Amid Strait of Hormuz Crisis
Russia announced it is prepared to supply fertilizers and other agricultural products to countries in the Global South and East, citing the recent closure of the Strait of Hormuz. The blockage has halted roughly 50% of global fertilizer exports and...
‘The Rules-Based Order Is over’: What Trump, Iran and Ukraine Tell Us About the Future of International Relations
Mark Leonard’s new book *Surviving Chaos* argues that the post‑Cold‑War rules‑based order is collapsing, citing the wars in Ukraine, tensions over Iran and the disruptive foreign policy of Donald Trump. He describes a shift toward a multipolar "un‑order" where great...
Saudi Arabia Trades Oil Barrels for Batteries
Saudi Arabia is accelerating its shift from oil to energy storage, earmarking $64 billion in mining revenue by 2030 and targeting 48 GWh of domestic battery capacity. The kingdom aims to challenge China’s dominance by developing lithium‑metal technology and exploiting its own...
Food Exports Poised to Drop by over 7%
Thai food exports are projected to fall 7.3% year‑on‑year to 1.4 trillion baht (about $39 billion), potentially hitting a five‑year low. The first quarter is expected to plunge 11.5% to 306 billion baht ($8.6 billion) as Middle‑East conflicts disrupt Gulf shipments and re‑exports via...
Trump and Hegseth’s Unprecedented Rhetoric Harms US Diplomatic Standing
The langauge that Trump and Hegseth use is unprecedented. How they think any sort of diplomatic relationship can be made this way is a mystery. The damage they are causing to the US’ reputation is incredible
PETER’S ASIAN BUSINESS & FINANCE BRIEFING – Wednesday 1 April 2026, 06:00 Hong Kong
The United States signaled a willingness to end its military campaign against Iran, even if the Strait of Hormuz remains closed, prompting a brief rally in equities and continued oil volatility. Brent crude surged to $118 per barrel, marking the...
Stronger Baht Hurts Travel
Thailand’s baht hovering between 30 and 32 per U.S. dollar threatens tourism competitiveness, with a worst‑case scenario of a stronger baht (>30/USD) potentially eroding 15‑17% of revenue. The Thai Hotels Association projects Songkran holiday bookings to fall 5‑10% year‑on‑year as...
Trump Claims Leaving Iran Will Lower Gas Prices
Asked how he'll bring down gas prices, President Trump says: "All I have to do is leave Iran, & we'll be doing that very soon." Trump also just reiterated his view that securing passage through the Strait of Hormuz is a...
Pox Americana
David Llewellyn‑Smith argues that the United States is undergoing an accelerated collapse, not a gradual Thucydides‑Trap decline. He warns that American allies will simultaneously reassess their strategic ties, questioning long‑standing security and economic commitments. The piece frames this shift as...
How Ireland Became Dependent on Big Pharma — and the Risks Ahead
Over the past five decades Ireland has transformed into the world’s third‑largest pharmaceutical exporter, with drug manufacturing now contributing roughly 20 % of its GDP. The sector’s rapid growth was driven by generous tax incentives, a skilled workforce and proximity to...
Japan's February Jobless Rate Falls to 2.6%; 1st Improvement in 7 Months
Japan's unemployment rate fell to 2.6% in February, marking the first decline in seven months. Employment rose modestly to 68.27 million while the pool of job seekers shrank to 530,000. Layoffs dropped 4.4% and voluntary quits fell 7.3%, indicating a modest...
Iran War Threatens Trump Dream of Lower Interest Rates
The Iran‑Russia war has reignited a supply‑side shock, pushing 10‑year Treasury yields up about 35 basis points to roughly 4.30%, the steepest monthly decline since President Trump returned to the White House. The closure of the Hormuz Strait, which carries...
RBA Caught in ‘Catch-22’ on Interest Rates
Australian consumer sentiment has collapsed to a 53‑year low, according to the ANZ‑Roy Morgan weekly confidence index. All sub‑indices, including current and future household finances, fell to their weakest levels since the series began in 1985. The decline follows two...
US Consumer Confidence Index Climbs to 91.8 in March
The Conference Board said its consumer confidence index rose to 91.8 in March, up from a revised 91.0 in February. The modest gain suggests households remain cautiously optimistic despite lingering economic headwinds. Analysts will watch the next reading for signs...
Famous Last Words: “Get Your Own Oil”
The article highlights that front‑month Brent and WTI futures have moved in lockstep since 2022, underscoring a highly integrated global oil market. It rebuts former President Trump’s claim that U.S. oil prices consistently diverge from world prices, labeling the view...
Experts Warn Peru‑Brazil Bioceanic Railway Threatens Amazon Ecosystems and Supply‑chain Stability
Environmental researchers and supply‑chain analysts warn that the proposed Peru‑Brazil Bioceanic Railway, linked to the new Chancay megaport, could cut through 15 protected Amazon areas and disrupt nearly 2,000 rural communities, raising both ecological and logistical concerns. The project, still...
Trump-Xi Summit: US Trade Chief Casts Doubt on Pre-Meeting Beijing Visit
U.S. Trade Representative Jamieson Greer told Bloomberg that cabinet members will not travel to Beijing ahead of the anticipated mid‑May Trump‑Xi summit, diverging from the usual pre‑summit diplomatic routine. The comment follows a White House statement suggesting cabinet‑level engagements would...
U.S. Gasoline Prices Top $4 a Gallon, Sparking Stock Futures Rally
U.S. average gasoline prices rose above $4 a gallon for the first time in nearly four years, prompting S&P 500 futures to jump 1.1% and Nasdaq futures 1%. Traders are weighing the inflationary impact against hopes of de‑escalation in the...
Gold and Treasuries Funding Liquidity Amid Oil Backwardation
With only one ship passing through the Strait last week, the oil curve has remained heavily backwardated. Looking at the correlations below, we see that gold and bonds have been positively correlated (with both under pressure), and Bitcoin and the...
Fertilizer Matters EP44: Chinese Ammonia Market
In this episode, Argus senior reporter Denise Cheng talks with ammonia market editor Roof Sharp about the launch of Argus' new China FOB ammonia price assessment and the shifting dynamics of China's ammonia trade. China, once a major importer, is...
China, the Philippines, and the Real Lesson of Second Thomas Shoal
Philippines and China signed the July 2024 Provisional Understanding on Second Thomas Shoal after a June 2024 violent boarding that exposed Beijing’s coercive tactics. Despite extensive transparency campaigns and diplomatic talks, Chinese water‑cannon and boarding actions escalated, prompting Manila to demonstrate national...
US Removes Sanctions on Three Russian Vessels, Says Move Not Policy Shift
The U.S. Treasury’s Office of Foreign Assets Control removed three Russian‑flagged vessels—container ships Fesco Moneron and Fesco Magadan and cargo ship Sv Nikolay—from its Specially Designated Nationals list. The ships, sanctioned in 2022 for ties to state‑linked banks, were delisted...
Rising Rates and Concentration Risk Drive Market Pullback
With the headlines lurching from one end to another, it’s not getting any easier to find clarity on how or when the conflict in the Middle East will end or what damage the ongoing Hormuz bottleneck will inflict on the...
Supermarket Inflation Drops to 2.3% YoY, up 48
BofA Nielsen: Supermarket inflation fell to 2.3% YoY in March +47.9% on the 7yr stack https://t.co/Jlz9FUMWAG
Northeast US Diesel Exports Surge to Europe
New York Harbor briefly became a net diesel exporter as traders shifted ultra‑low sulfur diesel (ULSD) shipments to Europe. A sharp rise in northwest European jet fuel prices created a price arbitrage window, flipping the usual discount relationship between European...
Risk Assets Surge as Iran Conflict Outlook Impro
BofA: Risk assets rallied today on the potential resolution of the Iran war. President Trump stated that the US “won’t be there” to help reopen the Strait of Hormuz Oil prices are less enthusiastic https://t.co/qqPBVmhvPG
Greece Upgraded to MSCI Developed Market Status
Greece has been promoted to a developed market by MSCI, no longer emerging, in the big leagues now. Congrats to @psarofagis as well as John Stamos. https://t.co/BE1V9ht86u
Rising Input Costs Challenge Inflation and Growth
Soooo are higher input costs a concern as an inflation or growth hit? Hard to keep up...
Rising Energy Costs Outperform Tariffs in Reducing Trade Deficit
Higher energy prices will do far more to balance the trade deficit than tariffs could ever dream of.
Hormuz Closure Could Push Oil to $300 Barrel
If Hormuz remains close the price of oil and refined products could rise to $200, $250, $300 per barrel or any number.
Latam’s Pivotal Growth Cycle Outshines US Stocks
Ask yourself… What would you rather own at this juncture: Latin America or US stocks? Latam is entering one of the most important cycles in its history, in my view. I couldn’t be more excited to be deeply involved as an investor...
Seeking Specifics on Balance of Payments Support
@adam_tooze what do you have in mind specifically with respect to balance of payment support?
UK Faces Fuel Shortage Amid US‑Israel/Iran Energy Crisis
Prices at the pump? UK running out of fuel? What should the government and the public do in the face of the US-Israel/Iran energy crisis? https://t.co/dVMIfX1kI1 via @Channel4News with @mattfrei
Basra‑Aqaba Pipeline Would Pay for Itself in Months
1 million bpd Basra-Aqaba pipeline costing $9 billion would have paid for itself in 3 months in the current crisis. And given Baghdad some resilience against closure of the Strait. Exactly why the Iran-aligned parties blocked it over nonsense arguments about...
Japan, France Eye Rare‑earth Pact, but Production Needed
Japan, France mull rare earths deal to cut China reliance A deal won't cut anything, only actual production of qualified materials and end products like magnets, at cost and scale.... https://t.co/IQ6N5twHWN
Four‑Week Hormuz Closure Halts Critical Petrochemical Shipments
I can’t believe the Strait of Hormuz has been closed for four weeks. It seems like so much longer than that. Scarcely do I remember the last time petrochemicals, urea, helium and other fundamental components could safely transit to key...
Trump’s Illegal Tariffs Bankrupt Firms, Block Billions in Refunds
Infuriating @wsj piece on the total cluster Trump's illegal "emergency" tariffs (& resistance to easy/automatic refunds) have created for US companies owed billions of ill-gotten dollars. Some face bankruptcy; others are giving up on refunds entirely. Theft, plain & simple.
European Expat
I live in the center of Europe. I consider myself a European. But I spent 18 years of my life in US and my wife and children are all American citizens. I am ashamed of how Europe has behaved with regard...
Equities Drop 10% Amid Oil Shock Uncertainty
Equities have been following the “oil shock” script for now, with the major global averages down around 10%. From here, things will depend on whether this turns out to be a quick 1990 Gulf War spike or a longer shock...
Foreign Central Banks Dump US Treasuries Amid Iran Conflict
"Foreign central banks sell US Treasuries in wake of Iran war" https://t.co/B4oQiLaXmS "Foreign central banks are selling US bonds at a time when the Treasury market is already under pressure as traders worry that the Middle East conflict could drive...
Geopolitical Tensions, Not Jobs Data, Drive Mortgage Rates
Does jobs week matter for mortgage rates as the Iran war intensifies? https://t.co/eNWu4sPUwS via @YouTube
Report on Global Imbalances Useful Yet Lacks Hard‑Hit Insight
A few reactions to the Bai, Gopinath, Rey and Weber report on global imbalances commissioned by the French G-7 Presidency. It makes a number of important and useful points, but could have been much more hard hitting 1/ https://t.co/tGPWHoSwYs
US‑China Trade Collapse: Prospects for Recovery?
Really honored to join the National Committee on US-China Relations to chat about my latest research: U.S.-China Trade Collapsed. Can It Recover? 📺 https://t.co/WPRwLNqS2z https://t.co/DATDHcySKT
EU Eyes Reviving Emergency Energy Rules Amid Iran Price Shock
The EU will consider reopening a set energy measures used after Russia’s 2022 invasion of Ukraine as the bloc seeks to contain a fresh price shock tied to the Iran war https://t.co/pGEqjvd4Uf via @johnainger https://t.co/oxM0l6weH8
Market Narratives Flip Fast; Update Your Thesis.
Q1 lesson: Cuts → Hikes. Stable oil → $112. Safe → Risky. Narratives flip faster than positioning. If you're still running January's thesis in Q2, you're not wrong in theory. You're just wrong in the market that actually exists. --- https://t.co/c8qhOLV3nI
Foreign Central Banks Slash Treasury Holdings to 2012 Low
Foreign central banks have cut their holdings of Treasuries at the New York Fed to the lowest level since 2012. The selling has come as oil importers like Turkey, Thailand and India raise cash through asset sales to prop up...