Today's Global Economy Pulse
Fed's Kashkari warns inflation remains far too high
Minneapolis Fed President Neel Kashkari told CNBC that headline CPI was 3.8% in April and core CPI rose 2.8% year‑over‑year. He said the persistent price pressure could unanchor consumer expectations and may force the Federal Reserve to act more aggressively.
Global Inflation Fears Rise as Goldman Sachs Predicts ECB Rate Hikes and US Prices May Top 4%
Goldman Sachs now expects the European Central Bank to lift rates twice in 2026, with 25‑basis‑point moves likely starting in April. The bank also warns that U.S. consumer prices could climb above 4% later this year as geopolitical tensions stoke inflationary pressure. These forecasts suggest a broader shift toward tighter monetary policy across major economies. The outlook signals that central banks may act more aggressively to curb price gains.
Monetary Policy Lag Shapes Current Decision-Making Framework
A special shoutout to Fed guy @josephwang. During our chat Joseph gave a beautiful breakdown of the lagged effects of monetary policy and how that feeds into the current decision making framework and then 3 hours later when @fejau_inc interviewed...
China Detains Nearly 70 Panama-Flagged Vessels Amid Canal Dispute
China has detained close to 70 Panama-flagged ships at its ports since March 8, a move U.S. officials say is retaliation over Panama Canal terminal leases. The detentions, largely of older bulk carriers, come as Panama sues for over $2 billion...
Bank of Japan Publishes Revised Natural Rate Estimate, Hinting at Policy Shift
The Bank of Japan released a revised natural rate of interest estimate on Friday, marking a notable adjustment to its policy framework. The move is seen as a signal that the central bank may be preparing to alter its stance...
U.S. Mortgage Rates Hit 6.38%, Driven by Rising 10‑Year Treasury Yields
The average 30‑year fixed mortgage jumped to 6.38%—its highest level in over six months—after the 10‑year Treasury yield rose to 4.39%. Higher oil prices and the Iran conflict are pushing bond yields up, tightening borrowing costs for homebuyers.
Supreme Court Rules Trump Tariffs Unconstitutional, $166 Billion Refund Looms for U.S. Companies
The U.S. Supreme Court declared President Trump's emergency tariffs illegal, prompting an estimated $166 billion rebate to importers. Companies such as FedEx and Costco now face a tangled path to recover the funds, creating volatility for earnings forecasts and stock prices.
February Trade Deficit at 9-Month Low
The Philippines recorded a $3.68 billion trade deficit in February, the lowest level in nine months and down from the $4.27 billion shortfall in January. Export sales rose 8% year‑on‑year to $7.33 billion, driven by a 20.5% jump in electronic products, while imports...
Hard Assets Surge as Stagflation Looms, Fed Constrained
Stagflation is written all over this move today. Gold decisively decoupling from overall equities and rising in step with oil and other hard assets. So much for the liquidation narrative — it’s gone completely quiet now. Don’t believe everything you read....
Xi Prioritizes Innovation, Targets TFP Over GDP
My take on the Chinese five year plan and the rise of "high quality" as approximating a "Xi Doctrine" on the economy - for @CarnegieEndow Emissary @CarnegieChina The TL:DR version: - For Xi, innovation-driven economy > consumption driven economy. -...
Iranian Steel Plants Damaged by Air Strikes
Iranian steelmakers Khouzestan Steel and Mobarakeh Steel were hit by air strikes attributed to the US and Israel, damaging storage silos, a substation, an alloy‑steel line and power infrastructure. The attacks are expected to reduce billet and slab production and...
G7 Confronts War, Iran, Hormuz—And US Accountability
g7 foreign ministers meeting in france today. on the agenda: stop the war, end iran's nuclear program, reopen the strait of hormuz. also on the agenda, implicitly: explain to allies why the us launched this war without telling them and ask...
Brazil Imposes Duties on US, Canada PE
Brazil’s foreign‑trade chamber approved definitive antidumping duties on polyethylene imports from the United States and Canada, fixing rates at $199.04 per metric tonne for U.S. resin and $238.49 for Canadian resin for the next five years. The decision caps the...
With Odds of a Recession Going Up, Here Are 5 Things Small Businesses Should Do Now
Moody’s Analytics now sees recession odds edging past 50%, while Goldman Sachs estimates a 30% chance of a downturn in the next year as higher oil prices and a cooling labor market converge. Small businesses, lacking the cash buffers of...
Iran War's Market Ripple: Key Signposts From Luke Gromen
No better timing than to have @LukeGromen as my guest tonight on The Danny Moses Show @scrippsnews at 7PM ET. We discuss the impact that the war in Iran is having on global markets & what we should be watching....
WTTC Chairman Manfredi Lefebvre Sounds Alarm: Latin America’s Trillion-Dollar Future Hinges on Fixing Infrastructure Failures
At the Future Investment Initiative in Miami, WTTC Chairman Manfredi Lefebvre warned that Latin America’s trillion‑dollar growth prospects depend on fixing chronic infrastructure gaps. The council estimates the region must invest about $150 billion each year—roughly 2.4 % of GDP—to close shortfalls...
Fitch Keeps Israel Credit Rating at A with Negative Outlook as War Costs Mount
Fitch reaffirmed Israel’s sovereign credit rating at A with a negative outlook on March 27, 2026, citing escalating war costs and fiscal strain. The agency highlighted that the ongoing Operation Lion’s Roar and northern front clashes forced Israel to exceed its budget...
US Inflation Surges to 4.2% Amid Tariffs, War
U.S. consumers will be among the hardest hit by Trump’s tariff policies & the Iran war. The OECD raised its U.S. inflation estimation for this year to 4.2% — an increase of 1.2 percentage points, the 4th largest uptick among all...
US Consumer Sentiment Hits Near Historic Lows Amid Uncertainty
US Consumer Sentiment just fell in March to 53.3, one of the lowest readings of all time. The only lower readings? Nov/Dec 2025 after longest gov't shutdown April/May 2025 after 'Liberation Day' tariffs June/July 2022 during inflation spike Americans are struggling to navigate all...
Tata Motors, BMW Among Automakers Set to Raise Prices in India
Tata Motors, BMW, Audi and other automakers will raise vehicle prices in India next month as material and logistics costs surge amid Middle‑East tensions and a weakening rupee. Tata plans up to a 1.5% hike for commercial vehicles and a...
Early War Fade Wrong; Shorts Closed, Risk Remains
The consensus in early March was the war is a fade because geopolitics is always a fade. I wrote a piece titled: "am/FX: Too Many Faders" on March 2 outlining why it was way too early to fade an escalating...
Economist Nouriel Roubini: Trump Is Likely to Escalate the Iran War — Risking '1970s Stagflation'
Renowned economist Nouriel Roubini warned that President Donald Trump is likely to intensify the war with Iran, despite a recently extended pause on energy‑facility attacks. Roubini argues that escalation could trigger oil shocks and a return to 1970s‑style stagflation if...
Energy Crisis and Conflict Drag Down Global Growth in 2026
Prometeia’s latest outlook warns that the Iran‑Hormuz conflict and resulting energy shock are eroding global growth in 2026. Euro‑area GDP is trimmed to 0.8%, a 0.4‑point downgrade, as gas reserves dwindle and inflation‑driven recovery stalls. The United States is projected...
Australia, International Broadcasting, and the Maintenance of Regional Trust
As the United States pulls back its media assistance in the Indo‑Pacific, China is expanding its state‑linked broadcasting, putting Australia’s soft‑power role under pressure. The Pacific Security and Engagement Initiatives (PSEI) – AU$32 million (≈$21 M USD) over four years – is...
WTO at ’Critical Juncture’ and Needs Deep Reform, EU and CPTPP Say
The European Union and the 12‑nation CPTPP bloc issued a joint statement at the WTO ministerial in Yaoundé, calling the organization’s future a "critical juncture" that demands urgent, deep, and inclusive reform. Both groups highlighted concerns over market‑distorting practices, oversupply,...
Ceasefire Secures Higher, Long‑Term Oil Price Plateau
"Let's just say on Friday we sign a cease fire and all hostilities cease. We are not going back to 60 bucks (per barrel). There's going to be a geopolitical risk premium built into the price of oil... You will...
Iran War Hits Oil, Markets Down <10%
The global investment community has been discussing the substantial impact of the war in Iran on the markets. Yet, the indices I follow, through Vanguard Group UK funds, show a decline of less than 10%. So far, most of the impact...
Blink and Miss: Trump’s Tactic of Threats First and U-Turn Later Is Proving Stale in Iran War
President Trump threatened to bomb Iran's civilian power grid, sending Brent crude above $112 a barrel and spiking U.S. stock futures before abruptly reversing the order and postponing the strike. The sudden policy flip caused the S&P 500 to jump...
Trump and Netanyahu's Iran Conflict Spikes Global Oil Costs
Thanks to Trump and Netanyahu's war on Iran, oil prices, jet fuel, and virtually everything under the sun, are taking a hit. US-ISRAELI WAR ON IRAN IS COSTING EVERYONE IN THE WORLD AN ARM AND A LEG. https://t.co/rjfW2er9UQ
Insights Into China's New Five-Year Plan
An assessment of China's new Five-Year Plan from my @CarnegieEndow teammate @damienics who directs @CarnegieChina in Singapore.
Airlines Are Facing yet More Turbulence. An Expert Assesses What It Will Take to Survive
The ongoing Middle East conflict has wiped about $53 bn off the market value of the world’s 20 largest airlines in just three weeks, while jet fuel prices have jumped from $87 to $150‑$200 per barrel, doubling one of the sector’s...
Yardeni: Iran War Could Trap Fed in Stagflation Bind
Ed Yardeni warns the Fed could face a policy bind if the Iran war triggers stagflation, caught between its dual mandate. https://t.co/AEdPXCYmJy
Dollar May Fade, But Not Anytime Soon
In my latest Telegraph column I defend the dollar by channelling @TomCruise’s Maverick. To the claim that the dollar is probably headed for extinction, I say: Maybe so. But not today. https://t.co/lTW4ry33Lp https://t.co/q9PtKebSYk
Tariff Impacts on Overall Economy Muted in 2025 As Importers Footed the Bill
The Trump administration’s IEEPA tariffs surged to an 80‑year high in 2025, generating $264 billion in revenue—more than triple the previous year. Despite average rates climbing from 2.4 % to 9.6 %, the overall impact on U.S. GDP was muted, estimated at only...
Erdogan Calls for Unity Among Turks, Arabs, Kurds, Persians
#TurkeyWatch 🇹🇷: President Erdoğan shouted from the rooftops: “in one of the world’s most strategic regions,” Turks, Arabs, Kurds and Persians have “lived together for centuries.” They have shared “the same fate and geography,” adding that “our future… will be together.”...
Eurozone Ministers Discuss Energy Risks and Immediate Support Options
At the invitation of Eurogroup President Kyriakos (@Pierrakakis), today I addressed Finance Ministers from across the euro zone on the major energy market impacts of the war in the Middle East and the immediate options to support energy and economic...
Double-Barreled War Risk Bombs Household Mood
U.S. consumer confidence slipped sharply in March as the Michigan sentiment index was revised down to 53.3, a six‑percent decline from February and the lowest reading recorded in 2026. The drop reflects heightened anxiety over the war‑induced surge in gasoline...
Bullwhip Economy Signals Hyperinflation, Not Stagflation
Very important client post. The Bullwhip Economy 💫Not Stagflation. Hyperinflation. 💫Gold Hedges Stagflation - Not A Bullwhip Economy 💫Some Key Topping Charts https://t.co/Jqx8pnT5Ti
Only US and China Can Police Hormuz Strait
This is important especially since US and China are the only countries able to ‘police’ the strait of Hormuz
U.S. Debt Hits $39 T, Treasury Declares Insolvency
US DEBT HAS HIT $39T AND IS CLIMBING. As I wrote in Fortune with Dave Walker, former US Comptroller General, US Treasury data show, black on white, that Uncle Sam is INSOLVENT. https://t.co/qKKcJtEuEk
Falling Consumer Confidence May Force Leaders to Dump Foreign Investments
FWIW - With or without further increases in oil prices, should consumer confidence around the globe continue to fall, and "Me Here Now" thinking really set in, it is hard not imagine local policymakers being pressured by voters to dump...
BoJ Must Emergency Hike to Halt JGB Steepening
genuinely think the BoJ needs to emergency hike. don’t toy with the idea of shorting oil futures (you don’t have the juice for that). Ueda—the JGB steepening can end if you have the courage to do what’s right. https://t.co/cHO1FRRfAf
STIRs Reveal Uncertainty: Inflation vs Growth Slowdown
Not often you see STIRs trying to price hikes and cuts at the same time, but that is the current level of uncertainty. What will dominate in the next few months, inflation or a growth slowdown? Get...
Short‑Term Inflation Expectations Spike, Long‑Term Dip
UMich biggest sour swing since April 2025.. 1yr inflation expectations surge to 3.8%... but the long-term inflation outlook was down a tick https://t.co/jKnBGuulSH
OECD Predicts 4.2% US Inflation, Trump’s Achilles’ Heel
The OECD warns that US inflation will surge to 4.2% this year. As I predicted, the inflation genie will not be put back in the bottle and will remain one of Trump’s Achilles’ heels.
UK Faces First Ever Net Salt Imports
For the first time in history, the UK could become a net importer of salt. https://t.co/LebKeoPpE6 https://t.co/SJkfWqLqVr
U.S. Pivots to Western Hemisphere Energy, Partnering with Venezuela
My view in the @EpochTimes on the US reducing reliance on Middle Eastern oil: “There is a strategic shift toward a more resilient Western Hemisphere energy bloc... through tighter integration of supply chains ... with Venezuela." https://t.co/DLlkE38yYS
China Launches Trade Probes in Response to U.S. Actions
China Hits Back at U.S. With New Trade Probes Ahead of Trump-Xi Summit Beijing responds to investigations by the U.S. that could raise tariffs @pstAsiatech: yes, Beijing will respond to every measure coming from within Beltway, every one.. https://t.co/XZraiO7f8W
China Plays the Long Game Against Trump
How China Is Playing the Long Game With Trump China is always playing the long game... https://t.co/ca5y4Jpyct
Massive Money Printing Spurs BTC, ZEC, SPY Put Buying
We are going to print so much money it’s disgusting. Buying BTC, ZEC, and SPY puts.
Weekend Approaches, Markets Nervous Amid Growing Risks
THE WEEKEND IS COMING. MARKETS ARE NERVOUS. HERE'S WHY Markets are cracking 📉 Gold up. Oil up. Stocks down. Traders are dumping before the weekend😬 Iran. Trade. Inflation The risk isn't going away it's building Here's what you need to know👇 https://t.co/7vLLHhW9RC