Today's Global Economy Pulse
Crude futures plunge as US‑Iran peace deal lifts Hormuz hopes
Oil futures fell 4‑5% after the United States announced a peace framework with Iran, prompting expectations that the Strait of Hormuz will reopen. August ICE Brent slid to $83.24 a barrel and July NYMEX WTI to $80.17, marking declines of roughly 5% and 5.5% respectively.
EU Customs Overhaul Targets Fashion Parcel Surge
The European Union is revamping its customs code to tighten control over the flood of low‑cost fashion parcels entering the bloc. Under the new rules, online marketplaces such as Shein, Temu and AliExpress will be liable for customs duties, product compliance and associated paperwork. The shift places the financial and administrative burden directly on platform operators rather than individual sellers. This overhaul targets the high‑volume, low‑margin e‑commerce model that has driven a surge in cheap apparel shipments to Europe.
The Thai Baht Remains Under Pressure
Thailand’s baht is under renewed pressure as rising oil prices and a stronger U.S. dollar converge. Tensions in the Middle East keep crude near $100‑$120 per barrel, inflating Thailand’s energy import bill and weakening the currency. Meanwhile, the two‑year U.S....
The Wrap: Trump, Inflation and the Term Structure of Interest Rates
The Iran war with the United States and Israel has triggered a sharp risk‑off shift, prompting private‑credit managers such as Ares and Apollo to cap redemptions as investor cash‑out requests surge. Direct‑lending defaults are projected to climb from 5.6% to...
Ray Dalio Urges Investors to Craft a Back‑tested Game Plan Amid Market Turbulence
Billionaire investor Ray Dalio posted on X urging investors to develop a well‑tested, back‑tested game plan to steer through inflation fears, geopolitical tension and sharp market swings. He argues that a disciplined strategy reduces stress and improves decision‑making, offering a...
U.S.–Indonesia $33 Billion Trade Deal Draws ‘Extractive Colonialism’ Criticism Over Mining Expansion
The United States and Indonesia signed a $33 billion trade agreement that eases U.S. access to Indonesia’s critical minerals and fossil‑fuel sectors. Activists and watchdogs label the pact ‘extractive colonialism,’ warning it could accelerate mining, weaken export controls and deepen environmental...
AirGas Forces Helium Shipments to Half, Adds $13.50 Surcharge Amid Qatar Collapse
AirGas, an Air Liquide subsidiary, announced a force majeure on helium shipments on March 17, limiting deliveries to roughly 50% of normal volumes and tacking on a $13.50 per hundred cubic feet surcharge. The move follows QatarEnergy’s shutdown of LNG‑linked...
Geoeconomics of Irregular Warfare: Iran and the Global Ripple Effects — Part IV
In the fourth installment of the Irregular Warfare Initiative’s series, experts Hamlet Yousef, Ioannis Koskinas and Tom Johansmeyer dissect how Iran’s conflict is being fought with economic levers such as energy disruption, maritime insecurity and financial resilience. The panel challenges common timelines and...
Next Africa: Why War In Iran Risks a Farming Crisis (Podcast)
The Bloomberg Next Africa podcast warns that the war in Iran could trigger a farming crisis across the continent. Iran supplies a large share of the world’s nitrogen‑based fertilizers, and conflict threatens to choke off those exports. African growers, already...
Southeast Asia Revives Nuclear Plans to Power AI Data Centers Amid Oil Shock
Indonesia, Malaysia, Thailand, Vietnam and the Philippines are accelerating nuclear power projects to meet soaring electricity needs of AI data centers, a shift driven by soaring oil prices from the Iran war. The region could contribute roughly 40 GW of new...
Ukraine Faces Funding Shortfall, Defense at Risk
“Ukraine risks running out of money to pay for its defense against Russia within two months as a multitude of factors converge to threaten tens of billions of euros in assistance from the country’s key donors. Kyiv currently has only enough...
UK April Price Rises 2026: 9 Moves to Stop Losing Money Now
As the UK tax year closes on 5 April 2026, Finance Monthly outlines nine actions households can take to avoid losing thousands of pounds. With tax thresholds frozen, wages rising only nominally and inflation eroding real income, missed opportunities such as...
Bridgewater Limits Losses to Sub‑1% as Iran Oil Shock Sends Hedge Funds Tumbling
Bridgewater Associates' $92 billion Pure Alpha strategy posted a loss of under 1% for March, outpacing rivals that logged multi‑billion‑dollar declines amid an Iran‑driven oil price shock. The fund’s defensive positioning highlights a widening gap between macro hedge funds that were...
Fed’s Hawkish Tone and Middle East Tensions Push Dollar to 99.64 Index
The U.S. dollar index climbed to 99.64, its biggest one‑day gain this week, after the Federal Reserve signaled a “higher‑for‑longer” policy stance and Middle‑East cease‑fire hopes faded. Rising oil prices above $100 a barrel and heightened safe‑haven demand drove the...
OECD Says Iran-Israel War Erases Global Growth Upgrade, Spurs Inflation
The OECD’s interim Economic Outlook warns that the Iran‑Israel war has erased a tentative 0.3‑percentage‑point upgrade to global GDP growth and pushed G20 inflation to 4% in 2026. The outlook flags higher energy prices, supply‑chain strain and heightened downside risks...
US Stocks Slide 1.7% as Iran Conflict Fears Spark Market Sell‑off
U.S. equity indices tumbled on March 26, with the S&P 500 down 1.7% and extending a five‑day losing streak. The slide was driven by escalating tensions over the U.S.–Iran standoff, a renewed pause on strikes against Iranian energy infrastructure, and...
South Korean Banks Raise Lending Rates Fourth Month in a Row
South Korean banks increased their lending rates for the fourth consecutive month in February, extending a credit‑tightening cycle that is pressuring both retail borrowers and commercial firms. The move reflects growing concerns over slowing growth and rising household debt, even...
BoE Independence Questioned as Letter‑Writing Ritual Sparks US Controversy
Reading this, all I can think is: what does it say about BoE “independence” if even considering its letter-writing model is deemed hyper controversial in the US? Moreover, I suspect a few former UK PMs would dispute the idea that...
Interdependence Bites Back
The Iranian drone strike on March 11, 2026 ignited a massive fire at Oman’s Salalah oil storage facility, curtailing regional oil output. The disruption sent Brent crude above $90 per barrel, prompting immediate price spikes across global markets. Analysts now see the...
Deep Dive: Strait of Hormuz’s Closure Will Hit Every Economy
The United States and Israel’s conflict with Iran has effectively shut the Strait of Hormuz, halting roughly 20% of global oil shipments and disrupting a wide array of petrochemical, industrial gas, and refined product flows. Prices for key commodities such...
Goldman Sachs Warns Markets Are ‘Fragile’ Despite Resilience
Goldman Sachs warns that global markets, while appearing stable, sit on a fragile foundation of rising volatility, tighter financial conditions, and surging oil prices. Indicators show the S&P 500 down about 5%, volatility scores near 9.5/10, and short positions at...
Trump’s Iran War Pushes India to Rekindle Old Friendship with Russia
India is moving to revive its energy partnership with Russia, negotiating a direct LNG supply deal despite the risk of violating Western sanctions. The talks follow a recent surge in Russian crude purchases, which could rise to 40% of India’s...
6 Asia-Pacific Financial Centers Rank Among World's Top 10, with Singapore Leading Southeast Asia
The 39th Global Financial Centres Index (GFCI) placed six Asia‑Pacific locations among the world’s top ten, with Hong Kong at third and Singapore at fourth, the only Southeast Asian city in the elite group. Shanghai and Shenzhen secured ninth and...
Gold May Not Rebound If Fed Shrinks Balance Sheet
So weird anyone is surprised by this. Time and time again, gold falls at the peak of a liquidity/financial crisis because people liquidate emergency supplies. Note Turkey. But then usually corrects higher once things stabilise (especially if Cbanks flood the...
Iran War Shows China’s Urgent Need to Plug Maritime Insurance Gap: Expert
Recent conflicts, from the US‑Israel war on Iran to the Russia‑Ukraine crisis, have highlighted China's dependence on foreign maritime insurance providers. Expert Chen Jihong warned that while China excels in shipbuilding hardware, its "software"—legal and financial services like insurance—remains underdeveloped....
ECB Consumer Expectations Survey Results – February 2026
Euro area consumers’ February 2026 Consumer Expectations Survey shows inflation expectations easing slightly, with the median 12‑month outlook falling to 2.5% from 2.6% and the three‑year horizon also at 2.5%. Perceived inflation over the past year stayed at 3.0%, while nominal...
Calmed by Uncertainty
In this episode of NatWest’s Currency Exchange, FX strategists Brian Dangerfield and Paul Robson examine why major G10 currency markets have remained unusually calm despite the heightened geopolitical risk from the Iran‑related Middle East conflict. They attribute the lull to...
Russia Sells Gold Bars for First Time in 25 Years to Fund Budget Deficit Amid High Military Spending: Report
Russia’s central bank has begun selling physical gold for the first time in 25 years, offloading 300,000 ounces in January and 200,000 ounces in February 2026. The combined gold and foreign‑currency sales since 2022 total roughly $185 billion, pushing gold reserves...
Iran Crisis Could Halve Germany's 2026 Growth, VAT Rise Debated
Good Morning from Germany, where officials are warning that the Iran crisis could cut 2026 growth in half. Internal estimates suggest expansion of just 0.5% in a worst-case scenario, and 0.6% to 0.7% even under less severe assumptions of persistently...
WTO Meeting in Cameroon Signals the Rise of a ‘World Minus One’ Order
The WTO’s 14th ministerial conference in Yaoundé produced only a skeletal draft, underscoring the organization’s limited immediate output. More significant was the symbolism of a multilateral forum convening in Africa as the United States steps back from WTO leadership. China...
Politicized Money Boosts Policy Risk, Hedge USD Exposure
Macro: politicization of money raises policy risk. Key factors: Trump to sign US bills, symbolic reflation tilt. Risks: polarization, FX volatility. Trade insight: hedge USD exposure. — Viktor Kopylov, PhD, CFA More insights: t.me/si14Kopylov
Governments Controlling Prices? It Has Long Been Unthinkable – but May Now Be Inevitable | Andy Beckett
Governments that once shunned price controls are reconsidering them as repeated inflation shocks strain households. Mexico and Spain have introduced caps on essential goods and rent freezes, helping ruling parties boost electoral support. In the UK, Labour, Greens and some...
Global Risk Concentrates in Few Nations, Demands Selective Exposure
Global risk isn’t evenly distributed. In 2026, a small group of countries - including Belarus, Lebanon, Sudan, and Venezuela - sit at the top of the global risk ranking, with premiums around 30.9%. At the other end, only 19 countries globally have risk levels below...
Resilience and Readiness Across the Sterling Monetary Framework
The Bank of England is deepening its repo‑led, demand‑driven liquidity framework, with market‑wide facilities now supplying roughly a quarter of sterling reserves. Short‑Term Repo borrowing averages about £100 billion ($125 bn) and Indexed Long‑Term Repo about £70 billion ($87.5 bn) each auction, while the...
Rates Spark: The EUR Curve Is at a Delicate Balance
Eurozone short‑term rates are climbing in lockstep with Brent oil, which has stayed above $100 per barrel, while longer‑dated rates show signs of strain. The 2‑year‑to‑5‑year segment is flattening and could invert if oil breaches $120, suggesting a potential ECB...
Thai Factory Output Unexpectedly Dips in February, Could Rise in March
Thailand's manufacturing production index fell 0.04% year‑on‑year in February, missing a 2.4% Reuters poll forecast after a 1.64% rise in January. The dip was driven by temporary refinery maintenance that trimmed petroleum output and a slowdown in car production. Ministry...
Iran Strike Pause: Slow-Boil Inflation Nightmare Scenario Keeps Dollar on Top
President Trump’s latest 10‑day extension of the Iran strike pause acts as a temporary relief valve for equities, preventing an outright market collapse but also stalling any meaningful rebound. The pause coincides with oil hovering around $105 per barrel, creating...
Why We Should Worry About Stagflation
Economists warn that a new oil‑price shock, sparked by recent Middle‑East conflicts, is reviving stagflation risks in the United States. Phillip Braun of Kellogg notes that the current environment mirrors the 1970s, where supply disruptions and accommodative monetary policy fueled...
FA at 30: AIA's Mark Konyn on Asia's Fast-Changing Financial Ecosystem
AIA’s group chief investment officer Mark Konyn discussed how Asia’s financial ecosystem has accelerated change over his three‑decade career. He highlighted how regional crises—from the 1997 Asian financial crisis to the COVID‑19 pandemic—reshaped risk management and regulatory frameworks. Konyn emphasized China’s...
Middle East Turmoil Strains $30tn US Treasury Market
Supply Chain risk is financial risk. “The $30tn US Treasury market is showing growing signs of strain, as turmoil in the Middle East drives swings in bonds that underpin the financial system. The ease of trading in the world’s biggest...
USD/JPY Near 160 as Risk Appetite Remains Cautious
Ahead of the weekend, amid the fog of war, risk appetites are restrained. Escalation to de-escalate? Is today the day the greenback pushes above $JPY160? PBOC sets $USD fix higher on weekly basis for the 1st time in...
UK Faces Steeper Inflation and Slower Growth Than Eurozone
The Effects of Higher Energy Prices CfM/NIESR survey: UK would experience greater negative effects than Euro Area: higher inflation & lower growth due to macro backdrop, fiscal/monetary policy responses & uncertainty over the conflict’s duration as reasons https://t.co/HG4SdveXNQ
China Probes US Trade Measures for WTO Violations
China Initiates Probes Into U.S. Trade Practices—The Chinese commerce ministry said some U.S. trade measures may violate WTO rules and other economic and trade treaties @QinSherry https://t.co/f62n2UUsnP https://t.co/f62n2UUsnP
Bond Yields Surge Globally as Japan Joins US/EU Breakout
Global Bond Yields continue to ramp higher alongside #Quad3 INFLATION Japan's 10yr ramped +11bps (thats a lot in a day) today joining the breakout in European and US Yields
Spanish Inflation Spikes Fastest Since 2024 Amid Iran War
Spanish inflation accelerates at fastest pace since 2024 on Iran war https://t.co/Po2qM4DdWA via @basteiro https://t.co/CpZxI7JwYZ
China Slashes LNG Imports, Pivots to Domestic Gas
China is cutting LNG purchases as the Middle East conflict boosts prices 🇨🇳🚢 📉 March imports are poised to fall to lowest level in 8 years ⚠️ Instead of LNG, China is turning to domestic/pipeline gas. This will help free up supply...
Iran's Strategic Blunder: Chinese Ships Reroute Before Hormuz
Onshore media just reported that: "Two container ships under China's COSCO Shipping Lines have turned back toward the Persian Gulf and have not yet passed through the Strait of Hormuz." I think this is a strategic mistake by Iran.
Iran-India LPG Trade Resumes as Strait Reopens
Iran-India fuel trade begins after strait open sesame, first LPG cargo due this week https://t.co/834nbwZFHx via @ETEnergyWorld
France Must Keep Slashing Deficit, Says Bank Chief
Bank of France chief says the country must continue cutting its deficit https://t.co/hlQK302LUB via @Alanrkatz https://t.co/jy5uVDlDMv
Europe's Economy Feels Strain From Trump's Iran War
Europe’s economy is starting to feel pain from Trump’s Iran war https://t.co/CIvXuCML5t via @jrandow @weberalexander https://t.co/y98tnQWvQJ
USD/INR at 94.27 Signals Prolonged Market Turbulence
94.27 on the USDINR. These are going to be rough times, and it's going to take time for flows to come back in