Today's Global Economy Pulse
Fed's Kashkari warns inflation remains far too high
Minneapolis Fed President Neel Kashkari told CNBC that headline CPI was 3.8% in April and core CPI rose 2.8% year‑over‑year. He said the persistent price pressure could unanchor consumer expectations and may force the Federal Reserve to act more aggressively.
Iran Vows to Hit Oil Sites if US Strikes Power Plants
Iran warned it will destroy oil facilities and critical infrastructure across the Middle East if the United States strikes its power plants, following President Donald Trump's ultimatum to reopen the Strait of Hormuz by March 23. The parliamentary speaker Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf said any attack would be irreversible and keep oil prices high. The threat comes amid already restricted traffic through the strait, which has driven a sharp rise in global oil and gas prices. Iran’s IRGC also signaled a much harsher response to further attacks on its energy assets.
Trump’s Actions Erode US Hegemony and Military Supply
Let’s unpack this: US exceptionalism/hegemony is based on our “security guarantees” which Trump clearly voided for our Gulf Arab allies when he and Netanyahu started a war on Iran (and Lebanon). And Trump also started a trade war with China that extracts,...
What’s Happening in EM: Oil Spikes Upend Local Bonds (Podcast)
Bloomberg’s Emerging Markets podcast notes that soaring oil prices have forced a revision of global interest‑rate expectations, unsettling the once‑popular strategy of investing in emerging‑market local‑currency bonds. The energy price shock is prompting investors to unwind positions as higher rates...
US Markets Hold Up as Global Stocks Falter Amid War
This WSJ chart comparing the decline in US and international stock markets reflects the underlying economic reality: While the global economy is reeling from the Middle East War, the US is relatively better positioned. This is especially true for energy where the...
South vs West: African Banking Majors Scramble for East African Market
African banking giants from Nigeria and South Africa are accelerating acquisitions and greenfield launches in East Africa, drawn by Kenya’s role as a regional financial hub and the trade‑finance potential of the African Continental Free Trade Area. The Central Bank...
War, Volatility Premium, and Oil Shock Stress Fed
Lots of unusual stuff going on in markets right now. A war that’s tough to price, a big vol premium with VIX still in the 20s, and an oil shock putting the Fed in a tough spot. @CultishCreative and I break it...
Borderlands Mexico: Court Ruling on Tariffs Sets Off Refund Scramble, Legal Uncertainty
The U.S. Supreme Court struck down tariffs imposed under the International Emergency Economic Powers Act, overturning a key tool used to target imports linked to fentanyl, migration and other concerns. The decision opens the door to potentially $166 billion in refunds...
Rising Rates Push US Toward Gold Amid War Funding
Fascinating how the surge in interest rates is driving these decisions. The US will have to address this. It’s the only way it can realistically afford a war in the first place. Inflation will be unleashed. Rates will be capped. Time to step into gold,...
The Four Horsemen of The Liquidity Apocalypse
The note updates the Global Liquidity Index (GLI) using a statistical model calibrated on historical data, highlighting a deteriorating liquidity environment. It stresses that the GLI was already weakening due to capital flowing into the real economy, and the Iran...
Govt Eyes 5.7% First-Quarter Growth on Holiday Spending
Indonesia's government lifted its first‑quarter GDP growth outlook to 5.7%, up from 5.5%, citing strong holiday‑season consumption. Finance Minister Purbaya Yudhi Sadewa said the surge stems from household spending during Ramadan‑Idul Fitri and resilient private‑sector demand. The administration also pledged to...
Bank of England Expected to Keep Rates Steady Into Next Year
The Bank of England is expected to keep its policy rate unchanged through next year, as inflation pressures persist. Oxford Economics attributes the heightened risk to rising energy prices driven by geopolitical tensions in the Middle East. The central bank’s...
Credit Crisis Imminent
The article warns of an imminent credit crisis as bond yields climb amid rising inflation expectations. It argues that expanding quantitative easing and war‑related spending will erode fiat currencies, prompting a historic wealth shift from creditors to debtors. Meanwhile, gold...
Impending LNG Shortage Highlights Energy Security Risks
The last LNG tankers from the Gulf arrive in the next 10 days. After that, many countries face a sharp drop in supply. Qatar's Ras Laffan — 20% of global LNG — could be offline for 3-5 years. Fossil fuel...
Korea Names BIS Veteran, Financial Stability Expert as BOK Head
South Korea announced Shin Hyun Song, a veteran BIS official and financial‑stability scholar, as its next Bank of Korea governor. The nomination comes as the BOK faces heightened uncertainty from the Iran conflict, rising oil prices and a delicate balance...
AI Capex Boosts US GDP,
AI macro: capex adds ~0.4pp to US GDP; supply-chain winners: Taiwan, Korea, Mexico. US leads models; China scales manufacture. Risks: skills gap, geopolitics. Trade: buy Taiwan semiconductors. — Viktor Kopylov, PhD, CFA More insights: t.me/si14Kopylov
Iran Rakes $2.5B From Oil Amid War
Aside the relaxation of US sanctions on Iranian oil, for Tehran the big win is the fact that >20 days into the war, it’s still exporting oil via Hormuz. At ~1.5m b/d (and assuming $85 a barrel) that’s a ~$2.5...
Will The Middle East Crisis Upend The Bull Market In Stocks?
Equity markets are underestimating the risk of a major energy shock from a potential closure of the Strait of Hormuz, which could choke global oil and LNG supplies. While U.S. economic growth remains solid, driven by fiscal stimulus and a manufacturing...
Europe’s Trade with Iran: Which Countries Do the Most Business with Tehran?
EU‑Iran trade collapsed to €3.72 billion in 2025, the lowest level in two decades, as renewed sanctions tightened economic ties. Germany remains the dominant EU partner, accounting for 31.8% of the remaining trade, followed by Italy and the Netherlands, together representing...
Iran War a Setback for Super Returns as Investors Brace for Fallout
The escalation of the US‑Israel conflict with Iran has pushed global equity markets down more than 5%, dragging Australian superannuation returns lower. Median growth‑option super funds fell about 3% in March, leaving the financial‑year return at roughly 3.3%, while balanced...
As Iran War Disrupts the Gulf, India's Growth Story Faces New Risks
India’s rapid economic rise is now threatened by the U.S.–Israeli war on Iran, which jeopardizes the Gulf’s oil and gas supplies that account for 40 % of its oil and 80 % of its gas imports. Disruptions to export routes and a...
A Show With No Name (Pilot)
In early 2026, President Trump intensified pressure on Venezuela, leveraging oil sanctions as a tool to challenge the regime and signal broader economic intentions. The move was framed not merely as a geopolitical maneuver but as a strategic effort to...
The Hormuz Panic Spiral: How Market Fear and Policy Chaos Are Fueling Energy Shortages
Recent attempts by the IEA and the United States to flood the market with strategic petroleum reserves—totaling roughly 572 million barrels—failed to curb soaring oil prices. Even temporary waivers that allowed the sale of sanctioned Russian and Iranian crude did not...
Shockwave of War Is Rippling Through the Global Economy
The first collective economic health check since the U.S. and Israel struck Iran is underway, with purchasing‑manager indexes (PMIs) across the U.S., euro zone and other major economies expected to fall. Rising energy prices from disrupted shipping and production are...
Iran Crisis May Trigger Inequality Shock Through Corporate Price Gouging
Inequality shock is the next risk from the Iran crisis Shortages give dominant firms cover to raise prices, protect margins, and push the pain onto everyone else Hormuz could become not just an energy shock, but an inequality shock https://t.co/J5Rdjxc0KI #Inequality #Inflation #Hormuz #EnergyCrisis...
Military-Economic Gap Delays Hormuz Response, Threatening Trade
These comments by former @CENTCOM commander General Votel highlights a disconnect between the military and economic strategy regarding the Strait of Hormuz. Attacks on shipping and the Strait were expected. When it comes to escorts, General Votel acknowledged that it can...
Could Ultra-Precise Harvest Forecast Give China an Advantage in Iran War Fallout?
China’s grain‑output forecasting system, honed over 46 years, now predicts national harvests with sub‑0.2% error, far outpacing the 5‑10% margins typical in the West. The model’s April release gives Beijing a six‑month lead before the autumn harvest, allowing pre‑emptive moves...
Trade Slowdown Milder than Expected, but Conflict Threatens Sharper Dip
Global merchandise trade will slow less this year than the WTO predicted, but risks a sharper downturn if prolonged Middle East conflict keeps energy prices elevated https://t.co/nhU9axrKFm via @b_muzz https://t.co/Vo7S63a3JN
Supply Chain Gaps Cripple Energy Despite Abundant Output
"The Waha market’s collapse underscores a pressing issue in global energy: Even when there’s enough raw-material output, many parts of the world lack the critical supply chains necessary to ship product where it’s needed" https://t.co/SUdaWtbJpH https://t.co/I9cYdXcGNR
Bombing Iran's Plants Equals De Facto Embargo, Says Analyst
If the US bombs Iran's power plants, there's no power to fill up oil tankers, so it's an embargo. Same with taking Kharg Island by force. Iran will stop exporting oil, so it's an embargo. Much better to do an...
Middle East Sulfur Reliance Fuels Fertilizer Supply Shock
"Fertilizer Shock Escalates as New Supply Risks Emerge" https://t.co/lgfrgMYRFg "almost half of the world’s supply of sulfur—which is turned into sulfuric acid for the processing of phosphate fertilizer—comes from countries in the Middle East" And US tariffs are making things worse:
Gold Set for Sharp Rebound After Emergency Fed Cut
Gold will bounce hard when fed Does emergency rate cut next week or two and all margin accounts stopped out. https://t.co/l3tZYexfCr
Hyun Song Shin, Senior BIS Economist, Appointed BOK Governor
Senior BIS economist @HyunSongShin has been named by South Korea’s president to run the Bank of Korea https://t.co/NVLP6R3Dox
Rising Short‑term Rates Threaten High‑debt Nations
Short-term rates (black) are rising as markets settle in for a long war. That pushes up long-term yields, a problem for any high-debt country out there. The last time we saw this in 2022, Italy and Spain needed ECB bailouts...
Markets Aggregate Opinions with Cash, Revealing Future Expectations
Markets are useful for the same reason polls are useful: not because they’re flawless, but because they aggregate lots of views. The difference is investors back their opinions with cash. Stocks aren’t GDP, but they do reveal what people expect...
Markets Tighten on Trump Amid Bond, Credit Strain
Markets have been the ultimate constraint on Trump and they're starting to look very iffy, especially where the US bond market (bottom left) and private credit (bottom right) are concerned. If the US escalates the war with Iran, markets will...
U.S. Leaders Debate China Without Ever Visiting
Washington Is Flying Blind on China Americans talk incessantly about the need to compete with their country’s greatest rival and how to do it. Yet many U.S. policymakers have never been to China. Impacts quality of the debate clearly... https://t.co/ghNp4u7uqt
PMIs Dominate Global Outlook as US Data Stalls
Light on US data next week but PMIs are key. These are the events to watch 👇 🇺🇸 US Jobless Claims & UMich Revisions 🇪🇺 EU - PMIs and GE IFO 🇬🇧 GBP -PMIs -Retail Sales -CPI 🇦🇺 AU -PMIs -CPI 🇯🇵 JP -CPI -BoJ Minutes
Oil, Rare Earths, and Microchips: Modern Power Weapons
The New Weapons of Global Power Are Oil, Rare Earths and Microchips This is a classic WSJ story, very well executed concept, good insights. Good read. https://t.co/OLjtrroo6Y
Rate‑cut Odds Plunge From Near Certainty to 14.5%
The odds of a rate cut in 2026 have fallen to 14.5%. Just 3 weeks ago, they were nearly 100%. https://t.co/uMCjhmatJN
European Trade Pressures Analyzed in New Spanish Article
A recent piece by Enrico Fardella and me on European trade pressures, translated into Spanish by Agenda Publica https://t.co/5AEY665Tjb
Trump, Iran Threaten Gulf Energy Targets, Raising Global Crisis Risks
TEL AVIV/JERUSALEM/WASHINGTON, March 22 (Reuters) - U.S. President Donald Trump and Iran threatened to escalate their war by attacking energy facilities in the Gulf, a potential widening of hostilities which could deepen a regional crisis and add to concerns in...
Ignoring Growth Shock, Rate Hikes Risk Recession
This "bet" completely ignores the negative shock to economic growth. If central banks raise rates into this, they will cause a recession. Cc @BenRamanauskas
ECB Poised to Act if War Fuels 2% Inflation Expectations
The ECB is ready to respond swiftly to signs that inflation expectations are surpassing 2% because of the Iran war, Joachim Nagel says https://t.co/rFFN40ION8 https://t.co/Eb51dA3MrT
China's Premier Acknowledges Trade Surplus Amid Export Surge
1/4 Bloomberg: "Chinese Premier Li Qiang has responded to growing calls from trading partners to address a rising trade surplus, with China’s exports continuing to surge in the first two months of the year." https://t.co/EMOs1RWaAX
Navigating Investor Strategies Amid Iran War Pullback
What are you doing as an investor during this market pullback from the Iran war?
Opening Hormuz Won’t Instantly Resolve Iran‑Trump Tensions
If Iran—facing threats from President Trump—now announces that the Strait of Hormuz is OPEN, would that immediately end the crisis and get ships moving through it again? Why or why not?
Houthis Threaten Dual Strait Disruption, Global Panic Looms
What if the Houthis enter the war, asks @citrinowicz ? A disruption at Bab el-Mandeb, on top of Hormuz, would turn global economic shock into panic #RedSea #Houthis #Hormuz #OilMarkets #SupplyShock #EnergySecurity #Trade #Geopolitics
Trump Can’t Count on TACO Amid Iran Hormuz Threat
TACO is not an option for Trump, writes @biancoresearch He can't leave Iran in control of Hormuz Crude won’t calm down and markets won’t recover. #IranWar #Hormuz #OilMarkets #EnergyCrisis #Trump #Geopolitics #Macro #MiddleEast
Money Supply Growth Exceeds Target, Fuelling Pakistan Inflation
#PakWatch🇵🇰: Pakistan's inflation is 7.0%/yr. Pak's money supply (M3) is growing at 15.1%/yr. That’s above Hanke's Golden Growth Rate of 11.5%/yr-13.5%/yr, a rate consistent with hitting Pakistan's inflation target of 5%/yr-7%/yr. THE INFLATION STORY = A MONEY SUPPLY STORY. https://t.co/x28UBeLyKl
Modi’s Calm Highlights India’s Strategic Autonomy Advantage
While the US and Israel escalate, Modi plays it cool. INDIA'S STRATEGIC AUTONOMY = A WINNING HAND. https://t.co/T87Vj30GN9