Today's Global Economy Pulse
Fed's Kashkari warns inflation remains far too high
Minneapolis Fed President Neel Kashkari told CNBC that headline CPI was 3.8% in April and core CPI rose 2.8% year‑over‑year. He said the persistent price pressure could unanchor consumer expectations and may force the Federal Reserve to act more aggressively.
Senegal Overstretch Saga Shadows Francophone Debt Diversion
The Iran‑related war in the Middle East has effectively halted new sovereign bond issuance in Francophone Sub‑Saharan Africa, leaving the region with only $6 billion of fresh issuance—half of last year’s pace. Credit spreads have surged to 375 basis points, and a rating‑agency survey shows African governments must raise $155 billion this year, pushing total foreign debt to $1.2 trillion amid 4.5% growth, 3.5% deficits and 60% debt‑to‑GDP ratios. Recent placements in Benin, Cameroon, Ivory Coast and Congo Republic were liability‑management exercises, not new capital, and were heavily oversubscribed. The trend underscores a fragile financing landscape for French‑currency economies outside the euro framework.
THE FED IS IN CHECKMATE & JUST DOESN'T KNOW IT YET: Why the U.S. Debt Spiral Guarantees a New Era...
U.S. federal debt has breached $39 trillion, up $2 trillion in eight months and $2.8 trillion since the July 2025 debt‑ceiling suspension. The Congressional Budget Office now projects debt climbing to about $64 trillion by 2036, roughly $2.4 trillion annually. This trajectory forces the Federal...
Ministry Eyes Oil Excise Tax Trims
Thailand's Finance Ministry is evaluating oil excise tax reductions to curb retail fuel prices while protecting fiscal health. A 1 baht cut in diesel excise would forfeit roughly 2 billion baht, and a similar cut for gasoline would cost about 800 million baht....
Growth Slump Extends Through 2026‑2027, Hits Jobs
“Growth is lower, not just for one quarter. It stays lower throughout all of 2026 and all of 2027.” In English: this isn’t a blip. It’s a persistent hit to jobs, incomes, and the economy’s trajectory.
Trump’s Iran War Sparks Oil Crisis and Recession
3 months. 2 wars. 1 recession incoming. Trump promised to be the peace president. Then he started a war on Iran with no imminent threat. Now the Strait of Hormuz is a live war zone, oil prices are rising, and the...
Amazon Sees India as High-Growth Market, Expands Seller Incentives and Logistics Network: Report
Amazon is treating India as a long‑term growth market, expanding its zero‑referral‑fee program to cover roughly 125 million products. The company announced an additional $35 billion investment in India by 2030, on top of the $40 billion already spent. A new air...
Asia Reunites Historically; U.S. Unprepared for New Reality
In 2011, fifteen years ago, I wrote an essay for @TWQgw on the reemergence of an interconnected "historical Asia" instead of the fragmented "Cold War Asia" anomaly to which Americans had grown accustomed. A fantastic essay in Swarajya on the...
Middle East War: Global Economic Fallout
International Energy Agency chief Fatih Birol warned that the Middle East war poses a major threat to the global economy as at least 40 energy assets across nine countries are severely damaged. Oil prices surged past $100 a barrel for...
Oil Futures Face New Pressure as the US and Iran Trade Threats to Strike Key Infrastructure
Oil futures surged on Monday as U.S. President Donald Trump warned Iran of bombing its power plants unless the Strait of Hormuz reopened within 48 hours. Brent crude rose 1.27% to about $113.5 a barrel and WTI to $99, pushing...
Iran's Hormuz Threat Emerges as Top Market Risk
⚠️ Iran threatening to shut down the Strait of Hormuz is NOT just geopolitical noise. It’s the single biggest macro risk in the market right now. ~20% of global oil flows through that choke point. If it closes: • Oil spikes • Inflation rebounds • Risk...
Week of High-Stakes Events Deepens Economic Fragility
Here are the links to the weekly look at the global economy and markets—a discussion of a week characterized by both high-stakes developments and an increasingly fragile economic and financial outlook. https://www.linkedin.com/feed/update/urn:li:share:7441107748030693376/ https://open.substack.com/pub/mohamedelerian/p/the-weekly-look-at-the-global-economy-7d1?r=33wip&utm_campaign=post&utm_medium=web&showWelcomeOnShare=true #economy #markets #middleeastwar
Iran Says Hormuz Open To All But ‘Enemy-Linked’ Ships
Iran’s UN maritime representative Ali Mousavi announced that the Strait of Hormuz remains open to all vessels except those linked to “Iran’s enemies.” The statement follows a U.S. warning that Tehran’s power plants could be targeted if the strait is...
Trump’s 48-Hour Hormuz Ultimatum to Iran Raises Stakes in Gulf War
President Donald Trump issued a 48‑hour ultimatum demanding Iran fully reopen the Strait of Hormuz or face the obliteration of its power plants. Iran responded by threatening to strike U.S. energy, information‑technology and desalination infrastructure across the Gulf. The exchange...
Tokenized Money Threatens Traditional Banking by 2030
🔺 The $2 Trillion Shift: Is Tokenized Money About to Kill Traditional Banking? 💸 By 2030, tokenized money could be a $2T market. But while the tech is moving fast, the global financial map is becoming a "fragmented mess" of rules. 💬...
The Oil Shell Game: Peeling Away the Bluster of the Latest Oil Announcements
The Trump Administration announced temporary licenses to allow Iranian and Russian crude to move and offered 86 million barrels from the U.S. Strategic Petroleum Reserve (SPR). Experts argue the licensing is largely symbolic, as sanctions, insurance gaps, and financing constraints keep...
Brace for Market Turbulence If No New News
Given all the news in the past 24 hours, if nothing new is announced in the next 24 hours, strap in—things are about to get intense. #oil #bonds #economics #mortgagerates #chartdaddy
Facing a ‘Crisis’, EU Millers Seek Safeguard Duties on Rice
The European Union is weighing safeguard duties on rice imports after the Federation of Rice Millers pressed for a review of existing trade agreements. EU rice imports have reached roughly 1.7 million tonnes, a large share arriving under zero‑tariff arrangements. A...
Japan’s Energy Dependence Exposes Vulnerability Without US Consent
Sad but true: “Japan can’t cut a deal with Iran without U.S. approval” And that’s why Japanese are protesting now. Energy insecurity in Japan can turn food insecurity can trigger events that US equity, bond, currency market are not pricing in. And Trump’s...
Higher Oil Prices Not Always Bad for Stocks
How Do Higher Oil Prices Impact Stock Market Returns? An analysis of historical oil price trends and stock market returns indicates that higher oil prices don't necessarily lead to weaker stock market returns going forward. (Ben Carlson @awealthofcs) This #WeekendReading,...
As Global Yuan Use Expands, Questions Resurface About China’s World-Leading Forex Reserves
A Renmin University report urges China to trim its $3.42 trillion foreign‑exchange reserves, which sit at roughly 16% of GDP, to a more moderate level of about 11.5% of GDP as the yuan gains global traction. The paper argues that a...
Dollar-Oil Surge Cripples Emerging Markets, Unmodeled Squeeze
DXY up 3% in a month on safe-haven demand. Oil up 50%. Dollar up AND oil up simultaneously. Emerging markets are getting crushed from both sides. This is the squeeze nobody is modeling. https://t.co/xogAtPGq0m
Waiving Restrictions Lets Putin Sell Oil at 2022‑level Prices
By what? Giving waver to Putin to sell his oil freely at prices we have not see since 2022? 😉
India to Focus on Core Priorities Amid WTO Reform Push at MC14 This Week
The 14th WTO Ministerial Conference in Yaounde will focus on institutional reforms aimed at reviving a stalled dispute‑settlement system and accelerating negotiations. India is warning that any changes must preserve consensus‑based rule‑making, MFN treatment and Special & Differential Treatment for...
War Triggers Soaring Commodity Prices, Gas up 85%
Price increases since the start of the Iran war... European Natural Gas: +85% Heating Oil: +80% Brent Crude Oil: +54% Urea: +48% WTI Crude Oil: +46% Gasoline: +44% Diesel: +42% Sulfur: +25% Coal: +24% Fertilizer: +23% Palm Oil: +13% US Natural Gas: +8% Iron Ore: +7% Rice: +7%
Long‑term UST Holders Lost ~80% Purchasing Power
Joke's on you - anyone that has owned LT USTs for the past 10 years has already had their purchasing power destroyed (ZB priced in gold down ~80% since global CB's stopped buying USTs on net in 3q14 & ramped...
International Business Briefs | Economist Shin Hyun-Song Tapped to Lead Bank of Korea Amid Inflation Risks
South Korea named economist Shin Hyun‑song, famed for foreseeing the 2008 crisis, as the next Bank of Korea governor as the nation confronts inflation risks from the Iran war and uneven Asian growth. In the United States, a federal jury held...
HK Inflation Near Target, Currency Board Proves Effective
Hong Kong’s inflation rate comes in at 1.7%/yr in February, JUST A TAD below its de facto 2%/yr inflation target. Hong Kong’s Dollar-Based Currency Board is WORKING LIKE A CHARM. https://t.co/Q0L3lNddlP
Hormuz Closure Cuts 30% Fertilizer Supply, Spurs Food Prices
OUT NOW - @JLinvilleFert on how Strait of Hormuz's closure has blocked >30% of world's fertilizer exports & degraded farming economics. Upward fert & food price risk. It's bad. Apple 🔊https://t.co/cMO23J6a4g Spotify📽️ https://t.co/CX48AK9HEc YouTube📽️ https://t.co/qx5Od1DJd1 https://t.co/uA1oP879mc
Weekend Read: Paul Krugman on the Hormuz Shock
As a first for me, I'm recommending @paulkrugman as a weekend read/listen. @robin_j_brooks makes it possible with a discussion on the Hormuz shock. https://t.co/aQ64hxAHxb
Sachs Predicts US Loses Geopolitical Edge to China
Distinguished Columbia Univ. Prof. Jeff Sachs on current geopolitics: "In many ways, the US can not compete with China [in both manufacturing and diplomacy]... And I think we all feel it's not a temporary phenomenon but really the end of the...
Iran's Strike on Qatar Threatens Gulf Energy Supply
Iran struck Qatar's gas infrastructure. Qatar is the world's largest LNG exporter. This isn't just oil at risk. It's the entire Gulf energy supply chain. $XLE is at all-time highs for a reason. https://t.co/7TjuVfAelG
Iran Conflict Threatens Trump Republicans in Midterms
With virtually no international support and a strong disapproval by the American public, Operation Epic Fury in Iran might topple Trump's republicans in the midterm elections. The US-Israeli war on Iran has SPUN OUT OF CONTROL AND SPRUNG A TRAP ON...
CPI Risks Distortion From Rationing and Price Spikes
No idea how CPIs will import this, but I fear the worst. Rationing + sampling distorted by the few remaining live routes, where prices will go vertical. Some stats offices might even have to impute price, which could paradoxically cushion...
Iranian Oil Claim Covers only One Week, Now Week Four
Even if this were true (which, naw), the 140 million barrels of Iranian oil on water Bessent cites here would offset roughly one week of Hormuz stoppage. We’re now in week 4.
Oil Price Surge Adds 2.8% to CPI Inflation
Funny math. If Dec oil meets futures. The YoY inflation of oil will be roughly 40%. Pick your inflation basket weighting and any feed through to core . Headline CPI direct is roughly 7%. Others...
Money Supply Swells $26 Trillion Since 2020, Diluting Value
The global money supply amounts to $144 trillion. Since 2020 alone, this figure has increased by $26 trillion. A vivid reminder of how quickly the value of money can be diluted. https://t.co/elsQDqCL3p
U.S. Tariffs on Menstrual Products Triple Since 2020
"According to government data, the U.S. collected $115 million through tariffs on menstrual products containing cotton in 2025, compared with just $42 million in 2020." https://t.co/myTChDYcYR https://t.co/PSGFpKlkaO
China Faces Gas Shortfall as Gulf LNG Runs Out
"World faces gas supply cliff edge as Gulf’s final LNG shipments approach ports" https://t.co/OjcnxXcs8a "China gets 30 per cent of its LNG from the Gulf but has some domestic gas production and can switch to coal-fired power generation if needed." https://t.co/ikbgxbUPhV
IMF Urges China to Boost Consumption, Cut Subsidies
IMF First Deputy Managing Director Dan Katz: "China can do more to increase consumption and domestic demand—especially for services—by boosting household incomes and reducing incentives for precautionary savings. That means shifting resources away from industrial subsidies and infrastructure." https://t.co/2Rvhxa5jsN
White House Must Reopen Strait of Hormuz Quickly
"To expect it to cave in today... ignores past lessons. And unlike the Islamic Republic, the White House doesn’t have the benefit of time. It needs to reopen the Strait of Hormuz in days or, at worst, weeks." - @JavierBlas...
US Debt Hits $39 Trillion, Ignored by Leaders
As Dave Walker, former Comptroller General of the US, and I wrote in @FortuneMagazine, "total [US] federal debt surged past $39 trillion, or 125% of GDP... Despite the federal government's fiscal time bomb, the US Congress and the President remain with...
US‑backed Tankers Keep Loading at Kharg Despite Tensions
Threats are flying between the US and Iran, but what matters for oil prices isn't words but deeds. Those deeds are that big oil tankers with capacity of 2 million barrels keep docking at Kharg Island to fill up. This...
US Banks Receive $200 Bn Capital Infusion
The $200bn capital boost to US banks. More on this in the Chartbook Top Links of today. https://t.co/Z0naICa1tz
Region Supplies Huge Share of Key Global Commodities
22% of the world’s traded urea, 24% of its aluminium, a third of its helium and 45% of its sulphur come from the region
Rising Gas Prices Drag Down Discretionary Spending
Energy sector $XLE: +33% YTD Consumer Discretionary sector $XLY: -10% YTD Higher gas prices are expected to reduce discretionary spending. The more you spend at the pump, the less you have to spend elsewhere (travel, restaurants, clothing, etc.). Video: https://t.co/kTI1Olplo7
Essentials Soar, Tech and Toys Plummet Since 2000
PRICE CHANGES 2000-2025: Massive price increases (100%-300% ↑) • hospital services (+275%) 🩻 • college tuition (+196%) 🎓 • child care 🛝 • medical care 🏥 • housing 🏡 • food and beverages 🥘🥤 Significant price decreases: • TV📺 • computer software💿 • toys🧸 https://t.co/Cu5vmq9OuE
China, Korea, Taiwan, Singapore Led Pre‑
But it is more accurate -- Before the latest oil shock the really big surpluses were China, Korea, Taiwan and Singapore (more an investment income dollar but ... )
China’s Rare Earth Dominance Fuels Global Mineral War
China's Rare Earth Weapon: Inside the "Mineral War" with Tomasz Nadrowski. Read more and sign up to my newsletter here: https://t.co/uDfSXat1Xl https://t.co/MXFQAofK9T
Deregulation Shocks Drive Investment, Productivity, and GDP Growth
"Quantifying Deregulation and its Economic Effects: A Large Language Model Approach" https://t.co/roqt5w8PzH "Positive shocks to deregulation boost investment, productivity, stock prices, profits, and GDP" 👀 https://t.co/3GEjbPT2Fx
California's Gas Supply Depends on Asian Petroleum Imports
What if Asia gets worried and stops sending petroleum to California. (Where did you think Californians get their gas since @GavinNewsom started closing oil refineries?)