Today's Global Economy Pulse
US‑Iran deal ends 100‑day Hormuz closure, oil markets stay calm
The United States and Iran announced an interim agreement to reopen the Strait of Hormuz, ending a 100‑day shutdown. Oil prices fell modestly after the announcement, and analysts warn that full energy‑supply recovery may still take months.
Average UK Petrol Price Hits 150p for First Time Since 2024; Trump’s Latest Iran Extension Fails to Calm Oil Market...
UK average petrol price reached 150.11 pence per litre (≈£1.50/$1.88), with diesel at 177.68 pence (≈£1.78/$2.22), the highest levels since May 2024. The surge, tied to the Iran‑Israel conflict and rising crude, is inflating motorists’ travel costs and feeding broader inflation worries. At the same time, UK mortgage rates jumped to a 19‑month peak of 5.75%, while European bond yields climbed and the Stoxx 600 slipped, highlighting tightening financial conditions. Brent crude broke $110 a barrel, showing geopolitical tension still drives energy markets.
Chinese Market Regulator Tells Firms to Focus on Healthy Competition Overseas
China’s State Administration for Market Regulation urged major exporters such as BYD and CATL to adopt healthier, fair‑competition practices as they expand abroad. The regulator highlighted the need to curb “involution‑style” competition that squeezes margins and forces costly overseas moves....
VIX +60 Spikes Signal Rare Market Crises Ahead
I'm quite nervous, and I spent 2 hours writing why you should be too. Consider: VIX has gone +60 twice in the last ~1.5 years. Once on a positioning debacle (Aug '24) and then again on the self-inflicted wound of April '25...
Boao and Qionghai Where Global Dialogue Meets Free Trade
From March 24‑27, Boao’s Dongyu Island Cultural Park hosted the “Boao: Where the World Meets, Qionghai: Where Free Trade Thrives” city exhibition, the first showcase since Hainan Free Trade Port’s island‑wide customs launch. The event highlighted Qionghai’s role as a...
Gold, Silver Prices Crash up to 27% in a Month Amid US-Iran War: Is the Bull Run in Bullion Market...
Gold has slumped 16% and silver 27% over the past month, despite heightened US‑Iran tensions. The drop stems from liquidity squeezes and waning expectations of Federal Reserve rate cuts, which have lifted the dollar and real yields. Analysts note the...
Small Businesses Say Tariffs Still Hurting a Year After ‘Liberation Day’
One year after President Trump’s “Liberation Day” tariffs took effect, small‑business owners report ongoing pain from $140 billion in duties ruled illegal by the Supreme Court. Refunds for those tariffs remain unpaid, while the administration has substituted new duties under sections...
TMTB Morning Wrap
Anthropic unintentionally revealed a new AI model dubbed “Claude Mythos,” which it describes as a step‑change in capability, while a federal judge blocked the Pentagon’s attempt to label the firm a national‑security threat. OpenAI’s ChatGPT ad pilot generated more than...
'Ripple of Fear' Over Iran War Hits Consumer Confidence
GfK's March Consumer Confidence Barometer shows UK confidence falling to minus 21, the lowest in months. The drop coincides with a 0.4% decline in February retail sales and rising energy costs, as Brent crude jumped 50% to $110 per barrel. Higher...
Stocks Move Inversely With Oil in One-Variable Market
One-variable markets overwhelm classic market timing metrics like sentiment, technicals and valuation which are more useful in “normal” times. A composite of oil and rates (oil is driving rates too) tells you all you need to know about the direction...
Soybean $12 Barrier Demands $100+ Oil, Crop Shortfalls
Soybean's $12 Ceiling Alongside $120 Crude Oil - It may take some combination of WTI crude oil staying above $100 a barrel, a poor Brazilian crop and a Corn Belt drought for soybeans to stay above $12 a bushel. Alongside...
Rewiring the Caribbean for a Digital Future
Caribbean governments are targeting digital infrastructure to diversify economies, with the Inter‑American Development Bank estimating a potential 12% GDP boost from improved connectivity. Mobile internet remains uneven, and analysts say roughly $1 billion is needed to achieve 5G parity by 2030,...
Steepener Trade Finds Relief as Front‑end Yields Rise
The UST 2s5s steepener has been my 'white whale' trade the past year, facing constant pressure from shifting macro drivers. It was first flattened by the AI disruption trade, then crushed by the surge in front-end yields following the outbreak...
2026 Middle East Conflict and Its Ripple Effects on the Global Economy: Potential Supply Chain Chaos Beyond Oil
The Middle East conflict, which intensified in early March 2026, has choked the Strait of Hormuz, disrupting oil flows and limiting the export of refined industrial inputs such as elemental sulphur, agricultural nitrates, and semiconductor‑grade helium. These constraints are generating...
Inflation Rises Y-O-Y in Pahang, Terengganu Across Housing, Utilities, and Essentials in February 2026
Malaysia's Department of Statistics reported that Pahang's consumer price index rose to 2.1% year‑on‑year in February 2026, while Terengganu's inflation climbed to 1.6% year‑on‑year in January 2026. Both states saw price pressures in housing, utilities, and self‑care services, with Pahang...
Deal or No Deal? Conflict Drives Oil Volatility and UK Inflation
In this episode, Charlene Young and Tom Sieber dissect how the ongoing Iran conflict is fueling oil price volatility and feeding into UK inflation pressures, while also reviewing the latest UK CPI data and government energy support plans. They highlight...
EU–US Turnberry Trade Deal Threatens Imports: CEOs Face Rising Costs
The European Parliament approved four conditional clauses—suspension, sunrise, sunset, and safeguards—within the Turnberry trade deal, giving the EU power to pause or revoke US tariff benefits if Washington fails to meet its commitments. The clauses could instantly raise tariffs on...
As West Asia Makes up 1/5th of India’s Agricultural Exports, Govt Monitoring Closely, Says Jitin Prasada
India’s agricultural exports to West Asia, encompassing the GCC and neighboring countries, reached $10.68 billion in FY 2024‑25, representing 20.5% of total agri shipments. Processed‑food shipments to the Gulf grew 18% year‑on‑year, while exports to the EU rose 49.5% over the...
The New Geography of Money: How Cross-Border Payments Are Being Reinvented
Cross‑border payments are undergoing a fundamental shift as fintech innovators replace legacy banking corridors with real‑time, low‑cost networks. New infrastructure—blockchain ledgers, API‑driven platforms, and regulated e‑money licences—cuts settlement times from days to seconds. Traditional banks are partnering with or acquiring...
The Macro Butler World Economic Summit 2026 Interest Survey
The Macro Butler is proposing a World Economic Summit for 2026, slated for December, to unite investors, macro strategists, and capital managers. After 28 years of navigating macro turbulence, the team seeks to create a signal‑focused forum that avoids noise...
Sri Lanka Apparel Sector Exports Fall on Global Demand Decline
Sri Lanka’s apparel exports slipped 6.91% in January‑February 2026, with the EU market leading the decline at 19.48%. Shipments to the US and UK fell more modestly, while regional peers such as Bangladesh experienced a 25.25% drop in EU shipments....
Russia Survived without SWIFT, but that Doesn’t Mean It Won
Russia’s banks were cut off from the SWIFT network in 2022, prompting the country to rely on its domestic messaging system, SPFS. While SPFS kept internal payments flowing and softened the immediate shock, it did not replicate SWIFT’s global reach,...
Emerging Markets Optimism Hits Record High, but Geopolitical Risks Temper Outlook
HSBC’s latest Emerging Markets Sentiment Survey shows optimism reaching a record high, with 68% of investors bullish on EM assets over the next three months, up from 63% previously. The survey recorded zero bearish responses, marking the 14th consecutive reading...
EU Customs Overhaul Targets Fashion Parcel Surge
The European Union is revamping its customs code to tighten control over the flood of low‑cost fashion parcels entering the bloc. Under the new rules, online marketplaces such as Shein, Temu and AliExpress will be liable for customs duties, product...
The Thai Baht Remains Under Pressure
Thailand’s baht is under renewed pressure as rising oil prices and a stronger U.S. dollar converge. Tensions in the Middle East keep crude near $100‑$120 per barrel, inflating Thailand’s energy import bill and weakening the currency. Meanwhile, the two‑year U.S....
The Wrap: Trump, Inflation and the Term Structure of Interest Rates
The Iran war with the United States and Israel has triggered a sharp risk‑off shift, prompting private‑credit managers such as Ares and Apollo to cap redemptions as investor cash‑out requests surge. Direct‑lending defaults are projected to climb from 5.6% to...
Ray Dalio Urges Investors to Craft a Back‑tested Game Plan Amid Market Turbulence
Billionaire investor Ray Dalio posted on X urging investors to develop a well‑tested, back‑tested game plan to steer through inflation fears, geopolitical tension and sharp market swings. He argues that a disciplined strategy reduces stress and improves decision‑making, offering a...
U.S.–Indonesia $33 Billion Trade Deal Draws ‘Extractive Colonialism’ Criticism Over Mining Expansion
The United States and Indonesia signed a $33 billion trade agreement that eases U.S. access to Indonesia’s critical minerals and fossil‑fuel sectors. Activists and watchdogs label the pact ‘extractive colonialism,’ warning it could accelerate mining, weaken export controls and deepen environmental...
AirGas Forces Helium Shipments to Half, Adds $13.50 Surcharge Amid Qatar Collapse
AirGas, an Air Liquide subsidiary, announced a force majeure on helium shipments on March 17, limiting deliveries to roughly 50% of normal volumes and tacking on a $13.50 per hundred cubic feet surcharge. The move follows QatarEnergy’s shutdown of LNG‑linked...
Geoeconomics of Irregular Warfare: Iran and the Global Ripple Effects — Part IV
In the fourth installment of the Irregular Warfare Initiative’s series, experts Hamlet Yousef, Ioannis Koskinas and Tom Johansmeyer dissect how Iran’s conflict is being fought with economic levers such as energy disruption, maritime insecurity and financial resilience. The panel challenges common timelines and...
Next Africa: Why War In Iran Risks a Farming Crisis (Podcast)
The Bloomberg Next Africa podcast warns that the war in Iran could trigger a farming crisis across the continent. Iran supplies a large share of the world’s nitrogen‑based fertilizers, and conflict threatens to choke off those exports. African growers, already...
Southeast Asia Revives Nuclear Plans to Power AI Data Centers Amid Oil Shock
Indonesia, Malaysia, Thailand, Vietnam and the Philippines are accelerating nuclear power projects to meet soaring electricity needs of AI data centers, a shift driven by soaring oil prices from the Iran war. The region could contribute roughly 40 GW of new...
Ukraine Faces Funding Shortfall, Defense at Risk
“Ukraine risks running out of money to pay for its defense against Russia within two months as a multitude of factors converge to threaten tens of billions of euros in assistance from the country’s key donors. Kyiv currently has only enough...
Iran Oil Embargo Threatens US Treasury Basis Trade
We need to embargo Iranian oil to end this war. Biggest risk from that isn't catastrophically higher oil prices, but vulnerabilities in US financial markets due to the basis trade in the Treasury market and private credit. Those are our...
UK April Price Rises 2026: 9 Moves to Stop Losing Money Now
As the UK tax year closes on 5 April 2026, Finance Monthly outlines nine actions households can take to avoid losing thousands of pounds. With tax thresholds frozen, wages rising only nominally and inflation eroding real income, missed opportunities such as...
Iran Hit Trump's Credibility, D
B of A: “.. If Trump’s credibility is “structurally hit by Iran, then ability to jaw-jaw Wall St & force [foreign direct investment] inflows falls ..” [Hartnett] https://t.co/QF657J7op6
EU Faces Trade Turbulence From US and China
From Liberation to other trade threats is the US with the EU. Now here comes China to the EU. Trade upheaval? Maritime? What lies ahead?
Bridgewater Limits Losses to Sub‑1% as Iran Oil Shock Sends Hedge Funds Tumbling
Bridgewater Associates' $92 billion Pure Alpha strategy posted a loss of under 1% for March, outpacing rivals that logged multi‑billion‑dollar declines amid an Iran‑driven oil price shock. The fund’s defensive positioning highlights a widening gap between macro hedge funds that were...
ECB Warns June Rate Hike if War Continues
ECB’s Wunsch says rate hike likely if war isn’t over by June https://t.co/DfO5yOLNdf via @FerroTV @lisaabramowicz1 https://t.co/rkEFK0fHSo
Iran War Scenarios Shape New Fed Policy Outlook
Three scenarios for the Iran war and what they mean for Fed policy under new leadership. Plus eight key takeaways from the latest FOMC meeting. 🟢 Open https://t.co/Tx6udRxjvm
Fed’s Hawkish Tone and Middle East Tensions Push Dollar to 99.64 Index
The U.S. dollar index climbed to 99.64, its biggest one‑day gain this week, after the Federal Reserve signaled a “higher‑for‑longer” policy stance and Middle‑East cease‑fire hopes faded. Rising oil prices above $100 a barrel and heightened safe‑haven demand drove the...
Dollar and Oil Hold Steady After Trump’s Iran Pledge
The Dollar and Oil are Bid: The dollar and oil remain firm. The market has a had muted reaction to President Trump’s announcement late yesterday that it will extend its pledge not to strike Iran’s energy infrastructure for ten days...
Post‑WWII Worker Power Erased by 1979 Neoliberalism
This is one of my favourite charts. It shows how the economy emerged from WW2 with a lot more worker power.. and then post-1979 neoliberalism crushed it. sorry folks, we aint gonna get another wage-price spiral https://t.co/KydXL5zIer
OECD Says Iran-Israel War Erases Global Growth Upgrade, Spurs Inflation
The OECD’s interim Economic Outlook warns that the Iran‑Israel war has erased a tentative 0.3‑percentage‑point upgrade to global GDP growth and pushed G20 inflation to 4% in 2026. The outlook flags higher energy prices, supply‑chain strain and heightened downside risks...
Brent Surpasses $110 as Hormuz Closure Cuts 15M Barrels Daily
Gm, oil watchers Brent crude back above $110 this morning because—and stop me if you’ve heard this one—the Strait of Hormuz remains shut and the world oil market is losing 15 million barrels every day that remains true https://t.co/jg4V9IlWhv
USD/JPY Near 160 as Risk Appetite Remains Cautious
Ahead of the weekend, amid the fog of war, risk appetites are restrained. Escalation to de-escalate? Is today the day the greenback pushes above $JPY160? PBOC sets $USD fix higher on weekly basis for the 1st time in...
US Stocks Slide 1.7% as Iran Conflict Fears Spark Market Sell‑off
U.S. equity indices tumbled on March 26, with the S&P 500 down 1.7% and extending a five‑day losing streak. The slide was driven by escalating tensions over the U.S.–Iran standoff, a renewed pause on strikes against Iranian energy infrastructure, and...
UK Faces Steeper Inflation and Slower Growth Than Eurozone
The Effects of Higher Energy Prices CfM/NIESR survey: UK would experience greater negative effects than Euro Area: higher inflation & lower growth due to macro backdrop, fiscal/monetary policy responses & uncertainty over the conflict’s duration as reasons https://t.co/HG4SdveXNQ
South Korean Banks Raise Lending Rates Fourth Month in a Row
South Korean banks increased their lending rates for the fourth consecutive month in February, extending a credit‑tightening cycle that is pressuring both retail borrowers and commercial firms. The move reflects growing concerns over slowing growth and rising household debt, even...
China Probes US Trade Measures for WTO Violations
China Initiates Probes Into U.S. Trade Practices—The Chinese commerce ministry said some U.S. trade measures may violate WTO rules and other economic and trade treaties @QinSherry https://t.co/f62n2UUsnP https://t.co/f62n2UUsnP