Today's Global Economy Pulse
Australia's April CPI eases to 4.2% as core inflation hits 2024 high
Australia’s consumer price index slipped to a 4.2% annual rise in April, missing the 4.4% consensus as a temporary fuel excise cut trimmed transport costs. At the same time, the trimmed‑mean core inflation gauge rose to 3.4% year‑over‑year, the highest level since late‑2024, keeping pressure on the Reserve Bank of Australia’s inflation target.
US-EU Clean Freight Crests $100/T for First Time
Refined product shipments on medium‑range tankers from the US Gulf to Europe broke the $100 per tonne barrier for the first time in nearly two decades, reaching $108.08/t on a Worldscale 545 voyage. The surge is linked to Iran's de‑facto closure of the Strait of Hormuz following recent US‑Israeli strikes, eclipsing the previous peak set after the Ukraine‑driven Russian diesel bans. Traders are now hiring MR vessels for atypical routes, such as to South Africa, while Jones Act waivers are tightening the US Gulf spot‑tonnage pool and further lifting rates.
What Do Central Asians Think About the Eurasian Economic Union?
The Eurasian Economic Union (EAEU) launched in 2015 with Russia, Belarus, Kazakhstan, Armenia and Kyrgyzstan, promising a common market and higher living standards. A new study by Dr. Zhanibek Arynov and Diyas Takenov surveyed public opinion in Armenia, Kazakhstan and...
Iran Conflict Could Ripple Into CUSMA Review
What impacts might the war in Iran have on the CUSMA review? #canada🇨🇦 #trade #canada #tariffs #energy
The Trade Everyone Got Wrong (And What Comes Next)
The author highlights a rapid crude oil rally from $70 to $120 per barrel, which shattered the market’s prevailing rate‑cut consensus in just a week. Simultaneously, short‑term rates shifted dramatically—SONIA jumped 45 basis points and EURIBOR flipped from pricing cuts...
Iran's Control of Hormuz Threatens Global Trade
The Straits of Hormuz and maritime generally is THE story of the war with Iran. Iran cannot be left in charge of the Straits and choke the world. I recorded a special episode of Invested with @AmiDaniel1, founder & CEO...
Markets Underprice Prolonged Iran Conflict, Expect Sharp Correction
Month two. No de-escalation. More troops. Kharg Island occupation being planned. In my experience, markets that price short conflicts and get long ones reprice quickly and painfully. Kharg Island handles 90%+ of Iran's oil exports. The implicit assumption built into current market prices...
Trump Delays Iran Energy Strikes as Confusion Swirls Over ‘Productive’ Talks
President Donald Trump announced a five‑day pause on planned strikes against Iran’s energy infrastructure, citing "productive conversations" with Tehran. The talks, led by envoys Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner, reportedly involved Iranian parliament speaker Mohammad‑Bagher Ghalibaf, though Iran publicly denied...
Authorities in Talks on US Tariffs and Finalising FTAs
Thai authorities are negotiating with the United States to address the 10 % global tariff and a Section 301 investigation that could trigger new duties, while preparing a written response by mid‑April. The U.S. tariff expires in July, intensifying the urgency of...
60 Minutes Catches Up to America’s Shipbuilding Crisis Long Flagged by Maritime Industry
A 60 Minutes segment highlighted the widening gap between U.S. shipyards and Asian rivals, underscoring a long‑standing shipbuilding crisis. South Korean conglomerate Hanwha announced up to $5 billion to expand Philadelphia’s Philly Shipyard, aiming to boost annual output from under two...
PMI Slump Signals Looming Stagflation Despite High Inflation
Flash PMIs drop Tuesday. First real data read since oil hit $112. In my experience, the PMIs are the most honest early signal of what's actually happening in the economy. If manufacturing and services both print below 50 while inflation expectations stay...
Global Oil Data Deck (March 2026)
Commodity Context released its March 2026 Global Oil Data Deck, highlighting the profound impact of the Iran‑War‑driven Hormuz stoppage on oil balances. Confirmed production shut‑ins are set to push the market into its largest deficit on record through March, while...
Pro Farmer Podcast | Fund Positioning and China Import Interest
Economist Lane Akre hosted the latest Pro Farmer podcast, focusing on fund positioning and rising Chinese interest in U.S. agricultural imports. He and economist Spencer Langford examined how China’s appetite for soybeans and corn is reshaping trade flows. The discussion then shifted to...
What Is America’s Goal in Cuba?
The article argues that while global attention remains on the US‑Israeli conflict with Iran, a growing focus in Washington is the potential collapse of Cuba's communist regime. Analysts claim the island’s economic reforms and rising private sector activity suggest a...
Bloomberg Intelligence: Oil Dives on Trump Comments (Podcast)
Oil prices plunged more than 5% after President Donald Trump suggested his team was discussing an end to the Iran conflict, a claim Tehran denied. The comments temporarily eased geopolitical risk premiums, prompting a sharp sell‑off in crude futures. In...
![Defense & Aerospace Daily Podcast [Mar 23, 2026] Look Ahead W/ Byron Callan](https://hixhlmpcokxhartfkpyi.supabase.co/storage/v1/object/public/images/articles/a2883ea803703e9d9eb32e7a418c4dfe.webp)
Defense & Aerospace Daily Podcast [Mar 23, 2026] Look Ahead W/ Byron Callan
President Trump postponed his five‑day ultimatum to strike Iran’s power grid after positive diplomatic talks, extending the window for the Strait of Hormuz to return to normal traffic. The delay comes as the administration prepares a $200 billion war supplemental and...
Markets Rally as Trump Signals Progress with Iran
The episode examines the market rally sparked by President Donald Trump's claim of progress in talks with Iran, which sent oil prices down over 11% to just under $100 a barrel and lifted the S&P 500 about 2%. Investment manager...
Sean Clark of Clark Capital: This Is No Time for Knee-Jerk Reactions
In this episode, Sean Clark, CIO of Clark Capital Management, explains why markets historically overreact to crises with an initial dip of about 7% but then rebound strongly over the following months, urging investors to avoid knee‑jerk reactions amid the...
Moody’s Trims Philippine Growth Outlook to 4.9 Percent for 2026
Moody’s Analytics lowered its Philippine GDP outlook to 4.9% for 2026 and 5.2% for 2027, revising down from 5.1% and 5.4% respectively, while keeping the 2028 forecast at 5.3%. The new projections fall short of the government’s 5‑6% target for...
Bloomberg Surveillance TV: March 23rd, 2026 (Podcast)
Bloomberg Surveillance aired its March 23, 2026 television episode at 20:35, featuring Norman Roule of CSIS, Michael Haigh of Societe Generale, and Federal Reserve Governor Stephen Miran. The program blended interviews on warfare‑related risk, commodity market outlooks, and upcoming monetary policy. Listeners received...
Trump's Iran Claim Masks Indirect Talks via Allies
the devil is in the details. It's important for the Iranian regime's legitimacy & public face not to engage in diplomacy with the US. So Trump may say "we spoke with the Iranians" what actually happened in that Trumps ppl...
Lula Criticizes Return of Colonial Approach
Brazilian President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva used the CELAC summit in Bogotá to condemn what he described as a resurgence of a colonial mindset toward developing nations, singling out U.S. actions in Venezuela and the ongoing fuel blockade of...
Trump Rows Back on Strait of Hormuz Threat – What Next? | Podcast
President Donald Trump has extended by five days the deadline to "hit and obliterate" Iran's power stations and energy infrastructure if Tehran does not restore free shipping through the Strait of Hormuz. The shift follows earlier, more aggressive rhetoric threatening...
African Bunkering Hubs Gain as Ships Reroute Around the Cape
War in the Middle East and Houthi attacks have forced carriers to avoid the Suez Canal and the Red Sea, prompting a surge of vessels rerouting around the Cape of Good Hope. This shift has dramatically increased demand for ship‑refuelling...
Long-Term Treasuries Turn Risk‑On, Driven by Hedge‑Fund Basis Trades
LT USTs are now a "risk-on" asset: 10y UST yields UP on risk-off, DOWN on risk-on. This is the price action you would expect when 37% of net issuance of UST notes & bonds since 2022 have been bought by "Cayman...
Unclear US War Goals Fuel Market Volatility
"US objectives remain unclear, making it impossible to measure progress (and thus the likely length of the war). Statements from top US administration officials give different and at times contradictory assessments of the war; in the absence of measurable objectives,...
India, Russia Reaffirm $100 Billion Trade Goal as West Asia Simmers
India and Russia reaffirmed their ambition to lift bilateral trade from $68.7 billion to $100 billion by 2030, emphasizing a balanced and sustainable approach. Both ministers highlighted that 96 percent of current trade is settled in national currencies, bypassing Western payment systems. Ongoing...
U.S. Relies on Canadian Manufacturing Amid NAFTA Talks
Leaving Canada high and dry could backfire, as the U.S. benefits greatly from Canadian manufacturing. We'll see how the strategy changes throughout these NAFTA negotiations. #NAFTA #trade #geopolitics https://t.co/G5bk8aSGAU
Europe and China Lead Global Imbalance Reassessment
The risk of an escalation in the Gulf seem reduced for at least a few days. So maybe there will be a bit of interest in my (somewhat novel) reevaluation of the relative contribution of Europe and China...
Urea Shortage Threatens 87% of U.S. Corn Output
To give a scale of the sense of fertilizer disruption: The 13.5 Million tons of Urea behind Strait of Hormuz is 1/4th of global exports. This is the equivalent of 87% of U.S. corn production. Apple 🔊https://t.co/cMO23J6a4g Spotify📽️ https://t.co/CX48AK9HEc https://t.co/a0azQFg63V
Poll: Predicting TradePolicy3.0's Future at WTO MC14
#tradeXpresso: with the WTO #MC14 around the corner, let’s have a poll about the future of multilateralism in Tomorrowland. What do you see as the most likely scenario for #TradePolicy3.0? Not really sure what I mean? Click here first: https://t.co/lGxTVEATfb
A Simple Binary Framework for Choosing Trusted Experts
This is a very good macro framework to adopt😂 This is the 1's & 0's of which experts to trust.
Jet Fuel Costs Double, Sparking Airline Crisis
Jet fuel prices have DOUBLED to over $200/barrel since the Iran war. Asian airlines and energy suppliers face MAJOR SHORTAGES. SIGNS OF A MAJOR CRISIS ARE APPEARING: Thousands of flights have already been canceled AIRLINES SHOULD SEND A BILL FOR DAMAGES TO...
Small Rise in Private Credit Defaults Cuts GDP 0.1%
"We estimate that a modest increase in private credit default rates to 3-4% (the lower end of the range for leveraged loans in prior credit cycles) would result in a small drag on GDP of about 0.1%." - Goldman
Short‑Term Inflation Peaks as Oil Prices Stall
Non-consensus view here @fejau_inc @qthomp ... Feels like short term inflation expectations are likely making a top here. Obviously this has a lot to do with oil. If oil can't go any higher on the headlines now, time to pay attention.......
VIX and Oil Dip, but Volatility Remains High
👉 Fear index Vix tumbles w/oil on Trump’s softer Iran tone. Reality check: both still elevated vs. pre-war. This isn’t calm – it’s just less panic. https://t.co/1L2wIolJnp
U.S. Backstop Rescues Nations Facing Currency Crises
It's amazing what getting backstopped by the U.S. can do for a nation with a currency crisis.
Majority Predict US Recession Within the Year
Poll results: 60% of respondents said the US economy will fall into a recession this year... https://t.co/tNssjMxbdK
Sachs: Iran Denies Talks, Trump’s Claim Questionable
Distinguished Columbia Univ. Prof. Jeff Sachs on Pres. Trump’s claim that the US is engaged in negotiations with Iran: “The Iranians have been saying very clearly that there are no negotiations... I think it raises questions about the President.” https://t.co/aM61cohaAc
Strong Dollar, High Oil Trigger Emerging Market Crisis
India rupee: 94/USD. Rs 80,000 crore of foreign capital pulled from India in March alone. DXY near 100. Oil at $112. That combination is an emerging market wrecking ball. Few understand this. https://t.co/urDfdNX6YF
Interest Rate Hikes Pose Bigger Threat Than Oil Prices
"We're focused on and worried about the rise in oil prices, but it's the rise in interest rates that can actually have a broader negative impact on the global economy..." 🎙️ @pboockvar, CIO @onepointbfg https://t.co/JjvKGO6Kfq
Rates to Exceed 7% with Worsening Spreads
2023-2025 rates would already be over 7% with the worse levels of spreads each year. https://t.co/2c2qtO9Hlx
1990 Fed Warned of Dollar Risk After Kuwait Invasion
funny how things change. This is how Fed staff assessed the risks to dollar after Iraq invaded Kuwait in 1990 https://t.co/XydwiGbPI5
Fed Reacts Differently to Oil Price Shocks
I used Claude to draw a chart that captures how I see the Fed's asymmetric reaction function towards oil. https://t.co/q9WcR7aCNC
Energy Crisis, AI Trade Shift, Rate‑Cut Uncertainty Discussed
The latest RiskReversal Podcast is out now with @pboockvar, CIO @onepointbfg🎙️ 🛢️ Is an Energy Crisis REALLY Priced In? 🤖 The End of the AI Trade As We Know It 🏦 Central Banks In Rate Cut Purgatory YouTube: https://t.co/qZocsifWUV Apple: https://t.co/8JgV8fbnuh Spotify: https://t.co/0G4Q2iLDO2
Markets Accept Persistent Middle East Conflict If Hormuz Flows
A new geopolitical equilibrium could emerge in the Middle East that includes almost constant kinetic action and YET markets could be OK with that. The 1980 Iran-Iraq war is a good example of that. All that matters is whether ships...
US‑China Trade War Threatens 2025 Economy; Cooperation Needed
NEW: The US and China put parts of the global economy at risk in 2025 through their trade war over critical minerals & technology. Here I explore a novel path for Washington and Beijing to 'cooperate' over *HOW* they reduce their...
Euro Consumer Confidence Hits Lowest Since Oct 2023
Euro Area consumer confidence plunged by 4 points from a month earlier to -16.3 in March 2026, the lowest since October 2023 @teconomics https://t.co/pdxVAqEF0L
Gulf Shut‑ins Could Cut 200 M Barrels in First Month
Current Gulf production shut ins alone, if held at current levels through end-March, will result in roughly 200 million barrels of crude *not being produced* over the first ~30 days of the Iran War Not simply displaced supply, but barrels that...
Trump’s Self‑negotiation Lost; China Won 2025 Standoff
At the height of the tariff stand-off with China in April 2025, Trump was essentially negotiating with himself - threatening escalation and then pulling back - while China stayed silent. We're at that stage now on Iran. China won the...
US‑Israeli Strike Closes Hormuz, Triggers Global Gas Crisis
Thanks to the US-Israeli attack on Iran, the Strait of Hormuz is ‘closed’. As a result, countries worldwide are facing a gas supply CLIFF-EDGE. LNG from Qatar is NOWHERE TO BE FOUND. US-ISRAELI WAR ON IRAN = MASSIVE COLLATERAL DAMAGE. https://t.co/qE8zgTwxgC