Today's Global Economy Pulse
Australia's April CPI eases to 4.2% as core inflation hits 2024 high
Australia’s consumer price index slipped to a 4.2% annual rise in April, missing the 4.4% consensus as a temporary fuel excise cut trimmed transport costs. At the same time, the trimmed‑mean core inflation gauge rose to 3.4% year‑over‑year, the highest level since late‑2024, keeping pressure on the Reserve Bank of Australia’s inflation target.
India Bonds Seen Lower as Elevated Oil, Higher US Yields Pinch; Debt Sale in Focus
Indian government bond yields slipped on Tuesday as Brent crude hovered above $100 a barrel and U.S. 10‑year Treasury yields steadied near 4.40%, the sharpest sell‑off since October 2023. The benchmark 2035 bond yield was expected to trade between 6.81% and 6.87% after closing at 6.84% on Monday. Meanwhile, Indian states announced a record‑size bond issuance of roughly ₹574 billion (about $6.14 billion), topping the fiscal‑year target by ₹100 billion. Elevated oil prices also raise inflation and current‑account pressures for the world’s third‑largest crude importer.
Japan to Begin Biggest-Ever Oil Release From National Reserves as Middle East Energy Crisis Bites
Japan will tap the largest ever portion of its strategic oil stockpiles, releasing 80 million barrels – enough for 45 days of domestic demand – as the US‑Israel war on Iran threatens tanker traffic through the Strait of Hormuz. The move...
China Is Squeezing Southeast Asia
China’s Belt and Road and the China‑ASEAN FTA have made Southeast Asia its largest trading partner, with roughly $126 bn of Chinese investment over the past decade. Yet the region’s trade deficit with Beijing has swelled to about $140 bn in 2024...
Iran War Threatens Global Food Supply Chains
The Iran war has choked the Strait of Hormuz, disrupting shipments of fertilizer and liquefied natural gas that underpin global food production. About one‑third of seaborne fertilizer, 35% of nitrogen‑based urea and 45% of sulfur exports now face delays, pushing...
New Zealand to Give Cash Payments to some Low Income Families as Global Fuel Crisis Worsens
New Zealand will begin a one‑year cash‑payment scheme on 1 April, giving roughly 150,000 low‑income families an extra NZ$50 (about US$30) per week to offset soaring fuel costs. The boost is delivered through an expansion of the in‑work tax credit and...
Australian Inflation Data Due Wednesday, March 25, 2026. Preview.
Westpac projects Australia’s February CPI to rise 0.1% month‑on‑month, keeping the annual rate at 3.8% for a third straight month. Underlying inflation measured by the trimmed mean is expected at 0.3% m/m and 3.4% y/y, indicating persistent price pressures. The...
Competitive Europe Summit — Live Updates
The Competitive Europe Summit convened policymakers, industry leaders, and experts to assess the EU’s renewed push for competitiveness. Central themes included cutting red tape, accelerating industrial capacity, and rebranding the single market to spur growth. Attendees also debated how geopolitical...
US Lifts Iran Sanctions, Hides Oil Shock Miscalculations
The US never thought through the possibility of an oil shock before its attacks, says @BarakRavid That's why it's lifting sanctions on Iran's oil That's not strategy That's trying to hide your mistakes And Iran still gets value from those barrels one way...
Asian Corporate Bonds Rebound After Trump Delays Iran Strike
Asian corporate bond markets rallied on Tuesday as geopolitical tension eased following President Donald Trump’s remarks about ongoing talks with Iran. Credit default swaps on investment‑grade Asian debt fell by at least four basis points, signaling reduced perceived risk. At...
Japan’s Soft Inflation Is Temporary and Won’t Alter BoJ’s Rate Hike Cycle
Japan’s February consumer‑price inflation slowed to 1.3% YoY, driven by lower fresh‑food and utility costs, while core‑core inflation stayed near 2.5% above the Bank of Japan’s 2% target. Wage negotiations indicate a 5.26% average increase, and PMI readings remain in...
Thanks For The Memory
President Donald Trump postponed a threatened strike on Iran, prompting a brief market rally, but analysts quickly shifted focus to the memory‑chip sector. AI‑driven demand for high‑bandwidth memory (HBM) and advanced DRAM has turned the traditionally cyclical memory market into...
UAE Urges Global Working Session to Secure Energy Chokepoints
UAE Minister of Industry and Advanced Technology Sultan Ahmed Al Jaber urged multinational corporations and governments to convene an international working session on the resilience of the global energy system, citing Iran’s recent attacks on Gulf energy infrastructure and the...
Argus Metals Movers: Turkey's Flat Steel Trade Patterns Set to Shift in 2026
In this episode, Argus senior reporter Elife Iboğlu and Tolga Yi Tekiciler, procurement manager at Tatmetal, discuss Turkey’s flat steel market amid tightening EU anti‑dumping and origin rules, upcoming EU quota cuts, and the loss of the UK’s galvanized‑steel exemption....
The Iran Conflict Is A Compounding Cost Crisis For Retail
Operation Epic Fury’s Feb. 28 strikes on Iran have forced a massive reroute of global container traffic, shifting roughly 90% of Suez‑Canal flows to the Cape of Good Hope. The detour adds 10‑14 days to voyages, cuts effective vessel capacity by...
Why the Iran War Could Be a ‘Game-Changer’ for EVs – and China’s Car Industry
Rising oil prices sparked by the U.S.-Israel conflict with Iran are prompting consumers worldwide to consider electric vehicles as a cost‑effective alternative. Analysts say the price shock could accelerate EV adoption, directly benefiting Chinese automakers who recently overtook Japan as...
From India to Italy, Trump’s Iran War Is Rippling Through the World Economy
The US‑Israel war in Iran has sent oil, gas, aluminum and fertilizer prices sharply higher, pushing global inflation expectations upward. Elevated energy costs are already biting manufacturers, farmers and freight carriers from India to Italy, while the conflict has forced...
Iran’s Fragmented Leadership Clouds US Negotiation Prospects
Important nuance before assuming the stage is set for US-Iran negotiations: ❓ How unified is Iran’s top leadership at present — across the legislative branch, the military (especially the IRGC), and the religious establishment? ❓ Does Parliament Speaker Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf hold...
Goldman Sachs Lifts 2026 Brent Forecast as Hormuz Shutdown Fuels Supply Shock
Goldman Sachs increased its average Brent crude forecast for March‑April 2026 to $110 a barrel after the Strait of Hormuz stayed shut for three weeks. The move reflects a widening supply gap that has already pushed spot Brent to $114.09...
Oil Price Spike Threatens to Cut Thai GDP Growth, Raise Inflation
Tisco Financial warns that a 10% rise in crude oil from a $72‑per‑barrel baseline could trim Thailand's GDP growth by 0.3‑0.4 percentage points and lift inflation by roughly 0.8%. The surge also strains the Oil Fuel Fund, which subsidises diesel...
Strait of Hormuz: Tiny Passage, Massive Oil Impact
I’m wondering if the news media can muster up an article or report about the Strait of Hormuz, how big it is at its narrowest point and why it’s such a critically strategic waterway to oil trade…. I haven’t heard...
Oil Market Reset: Billion-Barrel Loss Raises Prices Permanently
The world has lost nearly a billion barrels of oil production, writes @ericnuttall They're gone for good That resets the baseline for oil prices The idea that crude just slides back to $60 once the shooting stops reflects a PROFOUND IGNORANCE about...
Oil, Outages and Energy Shifts: The Global Ripples From the Middle East
The episode examines how the Middle East conflict is rippling through global energy markets, from plunging oil prices to strained LNG supplies and rising fuel costs in places like the Philippines. Experts Walter Todd, Ira Joseph, and Ray Coyle explain...
Chinese Automakers Outsell Japanese Rivals Globally for First Time
Xinhua: "Chinese automakers have surpassed their Japanese counterparts in global vehicle sales for the first time, marking a significant shift in the global automotive industry." https://t.co/PtNMiJISii
Third Manipulation Spike Pushes Brent to $104
Now, after the third incident of price manipulation, oil prices are rising again. Bent is about $104/b.
Trump Claim of Productive Talks with Iran Greeted with Skepticism
President Trump announced a five‑day postponement of planned strikes on Iranian power infrastructure, saying recent talks with Tehran were “very good and productive.” Iran’s parliament speaker rejected the claim, stating no negotiations had taken place and accusing the United States...
China Slashes Hi‑Tech Metal Shipments to Japan, Boosts Magnet Exports
China cuts some hi-tech metals sent to Japan – but magnet exports rise. Why? https://t.co/7TeFEq0KsX
Japan's Oil Imports Mostly Middle East, Review Ordered
"Takaichi Orders Review of Entire Supply Chain for Oil Products" I suspect the review will find that about 90-95% of #Japan’s oil imports come from Middle Eastern countries... https://t.co/hjPmFeOPov
White House Eyes Iran’s Parliament Speaker Ghalibaf as Potential US-Backed Leader, Politico Reports
The White House is reportedly positioning Iran’s parliament speaker, Mohammad‑Reza Ghalibaf, as a potential US‑backed leader, signaling a possible diplomatic pivot. President Trump has postponed planned strikes on Iranian power plants, describing recent talks with Tehran as “very good.” The...
Iran's Economy Was Not Collapsing Before US‑Israeli Attack
One of the many lies about Iran that has been generated in Washington, D.C., and other Western capitals is that, before the current US-Israeli attack on Iran, Iran's economy was in a state of collapse. NOT TRUE. JUST TAKE A GLANCE AT...
Venezuela's Bolivar Plummets 86%, Dollarization Needed
On this week's Hanke's #CurrencyWatchlist, the Venezuelan bolivar ranks as the WORLD'S WORST currency. The bolivar has depreciated by 86% against the USD over the past year. The only thing that will salvage Venezuela is DOLLARIZATION. https://t.co/HsoegSMSO1
White House Eyes Iran’s Parliament Speaker Ghalibaf as Potential US-Backed Leader, Politico Reports
The White House, under the Trump administration, is reportedly evaluating Iran’s parliament speaker Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf as a potential partner and future US‑backed leader. Ghalibaf, who currently chairs the Majlis, is seen as a workable figure who could steer Iran in negotiations...
Floating Storage Delays Iranian Oil Sales, Relief Unlikely.
Despite some accounts on this app implying that all oil that Iran has shipped is already sold…that is not the case. Some oil is shipped and is floating storage…to then be sold later. This does not mean the USTs...
Post‑CNY Container Surge Set to Strain US Trucking
Ocean container imports are just starting to roll in from CNY. This index tracks container at the point of bookings, which take about 3 weeks from bookings date to hit US ports. It is updated daily. In coming weeks, we will...
China’s Hainan Wants More than Beach Tourism. Will New Customs Rules Cause a Sea Change?
China’s Hainan province is pivoting from a beach‑tourism‑centric economy to a broader, sustainable growth model anchored by its new designation as a free‑trade port. Recent customs reforms will streamline cross‑border clearance, lower tariffs and introduce a “single window” system for...
Tariffs Inflate Costs, Threaten Jobs; Need Pro‑Growth Policies
Tariff taxes are raising costs for businesses and squeezing workers. As Governor, I want policies that strengthen U.S. manufacturing, lower costs, and create stable jobs—not add uncertainty and expenses. https://sentinelcolorado.com/nation-world/nation/trumps-tariffs-are-hurting-american-manufacturers-instead-of-helping-them/
Dollar Reserve Growth Didn't Fund US Deficit
I spend a lot of time tracking dollar reserve growth. Probably more time than anyone at the Fund. And I absolutely believe that the surge in reserve growth contributed to the rise in imbalances before the...
Oil Markets Grapple With Still-Unclear Mideast Endgame
Tensions in the Middle East remain high as the United States and Iran stepped back from a potential escalation on Monday. ADNOC chief Sultan al‑Jaber denounced Iran’s continued control of traffic through the Strait of Hormuz as “economic terrorism” during...
Iran War Triggers Global Inflation and Supply Chain Strain
Goldman Sachs: Brace for worldwide inflation surge. The supply shortages created with the Iran war. What will that do to demand, China & other exports, inventory, supply chains, and logistics? Especially the transportation modes.
Parsi Explains Rial’s 12% Surge Amid US‑Israel Conflict
Johns Hopkins PhD Trita Parsi is on to something. What Parsi reports helps explain why the Iranian Rial has soared by 12% against the USD during the first 3 weeks of the US-Israel war on Iran.
Fuel Rationing Starts to Bite
Australian Prime Minister Anthony Albanese announced a bilateral understanding with Singapore’s leader Lawrence Wong to maintain the flow of essential fuels such as diesel and liquefied natural gas. The pledge comes as both countries confront tightening global fuel supplies and...
Oil Shocks Fail to Stubbornly Raise Inflation Expectations
GS: Over the Past 40 Years, Even Major Oil Price Shocks Did Not Leave Long-Lasting Effects on Consumer Inflation Expectations https://t.co/8naRIKCG9F
Commodity Price Surge to Add 0.35pp Core PCE by 2026Q
GS: We Estimate That the Boost from Commodity Price Increases to Year-Over-Year Core PCE Inflation Will Peak Around 0.35pp in 2026Q4 in Our Baseline Scenario https://t.co/e4Hp5utn1j
Ray Dalio’s Gold Playbook: Why He Now Sees Bullion as “The Safest Money”
Ray Dalio told the World Governments Summit in Dubai that the global monetary system is entering a "capital war" and that gold is now the safest form of money. He linked the erosion of fiat currencies and sovereign debt to...
Ceasefire Won’t Resolve Underlying Middle East Crisis
“Ending the War Doesn’t End the Crisis”: Middle East Ceasefire Risks | A... https://t.co/bDlWKuJTVz via @YouTube
U.S. Gains Most From Hormuz Crisis, Timing Crucial
No matter how you slice it, the United States stands to gain the most from the Hormuz crisis—but keep the timeframes separate, or the picture gets muddled fast. 👇👇👇
Iran Disputes Trump's Claim of Peace Deal
President Donald Trump claimed that preliminary peace talks with Iran were underway and that a deal could be reached within five days. Iran’s parliamentary speaker Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf refuted the claim, stating no negotiations have occurred and accusing the US...
Middle Eastern LNG Delayed to June, Oil Hoarding Risks Rise
Middle Eastern liquified natural gas (LNG) might not come to Europe till June, and why speculative hoarding of oil is a serious concern going forward, per top shipping/energy hedge fund in shipping and energy trading A must watch
BoE's MPC Scenario Guidance Will Become a Chaotic Puzzle
Scenario guidance is going to take some getting used to. Especially when the BoE gets hold of it, and each member of the MPC sets out their own different scenarios (3 scenarios each, 9 members) 🤣
Carlyle’s Stavridis Says Investors Are Already Mapping Out Post-War Iran
Admiral James Stavridis, vice‑chairman of Carlyle, says investors are already mapping out opportunities in a post‑war Iran, citing a roughly two‑thirds chance that negotiations will reopen the Strait of Hormuz and revive oil trade. He likens Iran’s potential reconstruction to South...
New 2026 Rate Outlook Recalibrated From Hormuz to DC
Latest episode of our Trading Global Macro Podcast: From Hormuz to Washington DC: Recalibrating the 2026 Rate Outlook https://t.co/SWQ3mEPyhx