Today's Global Economy Pulse
Australia's April CPI eases to 4.2% as core inflation hits 2024 high
Australia’s consumer price index slipped to a 4.2% annual rise in April, missing the 4.4% consensus as a temporary fuel excise cut trimmed transport costs. At the same time, the trimmed‑mean core inflation gauge rose to 3.4% year‑over‑year, the highest level since late‑2024, keeping pressure on the Reserve Bank of Australia’s inflation target.
Governments Tighten Scrutiny on Carrier Pricing as Crisis Surcharges Mount
Governments in the United States and India are tightening oversight of ocean carrier pricing amid rising emergency surcharges linked to the Middle East crisis. The U.S. Federal Maritime Commission rejected liner requests for war‑related fees without a 30‑day notice, while India’s Directorate General of Shipping launched a dedicated helpline for freight‑pricing complaints. Exporters have pressed for curbs on opportunistic pricing, but analysts warn that supply‑demand volatility largely drives rate spikes. The scrutiny extends to new inland haulage fees introduced by Singapore‑based ONE.
A Golden Opportunity for a Beleaguered WTO
The World Trade Organization’s 14th Ministerial Conference in Yaoundé, Cameroon, is poised to adopt the Investment Facilitation for Development Agreement (IFDA) into its rulebook. IFDA seeks to streamline investment processes and improve access to capital for developing economies. The move...
Pop a CAPM in Non-O&G Equities.
Markets are increasingly pricing equity risk premiums based on inflation expectations rather than the Federal Reserve’s real‑rate policy, a shift that tilts the advantage toward oil and gas (O&G) equities. Global oil and gas revenues have risen above 4% of...
Advisors Debate Whether Economy Will Return to that '70s Show
Wealth managers are drawing a parallel between today’s economy and the 1970s, citing soaring oil prices, sticky inflation and heightened geopolitical risk. They argue that the era’s stagflation and oil shocks offer a useful lens for current asset‑allocation decisions. Advisors...
Top Links 1051 Looking at the Wrong Oil Price. Insuring the Straits. Rupee Weakness. Epstein and Primal Fathers.
The White House is reportedly using an outdated oil price benchmark—specifically the OPEC basket—when calculating costs and sanctions related to the ongoing Iran conflict. Analysts argue that this misalignment skews revenue projections, inflates insurance premiums for vessels transiting the Strait...
SA Pitches Itself as Africa’s Gateway Amid Global Market Turbulence
South Africa is gearing up for the sixth South African Investment Conference, with more than 31 countries sending delegations. The conference builds on a five‑year drive that has attracted roughly R1.56 trillion (about US$82 billion) in investment pledges, exceeding its original target...
Africa Needs to Fight for a Better Deal on World Trade Rules: It Should Lead the Charge on These 3...
African leaders are using the WTO’s 14th Ministerial Conference in Yaoundé to demand fairer trade rules, focusing on agriculture, e‑commerce and green industrialisation. They aim to curb subsidised imports, boost digital trade infrastructure and secure flexible carbon‑pricing mechanisms. The conference...
Citco Data Shows Hedge Funds Gained in February Ahead of Ukraine War Escalation
Citco’s latest performance snapshot shows hedge funds posted gains in February before the Ukraine war escalated. While exact return figures were not disclosed, the data underscores a brief rally in an industry managing roughly $5 trillion of assets worldwide.
German Minister Says Trump's Iran Talks Announcement Could Mark Turning Point
German Foreign Minister Johann Wadephul said President Donald Trump's recent announcement of talks with Iran could represent a turning point in the ongoing Middle East conflict. Trump posted on Truth Social that the United States and Iran held “very good...
IEA Chief Warns of Looming Global Economic Threat Amid Energy Market Turmoil
International Energy Agency Executive Director Fatih Birol warned that the global economy faces a major threat from tightening energy markets. He cited recent oil price volatility, green hydrogen deals and geopolitical tensions as key drivers of the risk.
Trump Postpones Iran Power Plant Strikes for Five Days, Easing Oil Market Jitters
President Donald Trump announced a five‑day delay to planned strikes on Iran’s power grid and energy plants, citing “very good and productive conversations.” The pause comes as Iran’s energy infrastructure faces ongoing attacks, tempering volatility in global oil and gas...
The Great Easing Pause: Treasury Strategy in a Wartime Economy
The Federal Reserve paused its easing cycle in March, keeping the federal funds rate at 3.50‑3.75% after three consecutive quarter‑point cuts. This “hawkish hold” arrives amid a wartime‑style energy shock that could lift headline inflation by 0.8 percentage points and...
DOE: PH Fuel Supply Will 'Run Dry' If Middle East Tensions Escalate
The Philippines, which imports over 90% of its petroleum, faces a potential fuel shortage if Middle East tensions disrupt global oil routes, especially the Strait of Hormuz. DOE Secretary Sharon Garin warned that gasoline stocks could last about 64 days...
Trump Rolls a Social Media Grenade Onto the Trading Floor.
The Saxo Market Call dissected the market fallout from former President Donald Trump's surprise social‑media announcement that he was pulling back a 48‑hour ultimatum to bomb Iran’s energy infrastructure, a move that temporarily lowered oil prices and sparked massive crude‑futures...
Eurozone PMI Drops to 10-Month Low on Middle East Conflict
Eurozone's composite PMI fell to 50.5 in March, the lowest level in ten months, down from 51.9 in February. Manufacturing output remained modestly positive at 51.7, while the services PMI slipped to 50.1, indicating contraction. Input prices rose sharply as...
How China Made Itself Tariff-Proof
In this episode, Keith Bradshirp explains how China has become virtually tariff‑proof by rapidly expanding its advanced, robot‑driven manufacturing capacity. The discussion highlights four key factors: diversification of export markets, indirect shipments through third‑party countries, a deliberately weakened yuan, and,...
How the Economy Would Weather Private-Credit Defaults Rising to Financial Crisis-Like Levels
Goldman Sachs’ latest research argues that even if private‑credit defaults surge to 10%—a level seen during the 2008‑09 financial crisis—the macroeconomic fallout would be modest, trimming U.S. GDP by only 20‑50 basis points. The sector, with roughly $1.7 trillion in leveraged...
EU and Australia Finally Reach Compromise on Prosecco GI
The EU‑Australia free trade agreement was finally signed, ending a protracted dispute over geographical indications (GIs). Australia will protect 396 EU GIs, including the Prosecco designation, while still allowing the term “Prosecco” to be used as a grape‑variety name within...
Mild Bargain Hunting Lifts PSEi Amid Hopes of US Easing Middle East Tensions
The Philippine Stock Exchange index edged higher on March 24, gaining 37.02 points (0.63%) to close at 5,936.20, led by mining stocks as gold prices rose, while trading volume slipped to 634 million shares worth roughly $102 million. The rally was sparked by...
Trump’s Hormuz Remarks Threaten Petrodollar‑reserve Currency Pact
One of the foundations of the US reserve currency status is the 1970s Nixon-KSA agreement that the US provides military protection in return for recycling of Petrodollars into the US bond market. When President Trump says things like that "we...
Crisis at Hormuz, and Your $160b Tariff Refund Clock, with Flexport’s Ryan Petersen
In this Rapid Response episode, Flexport CEO Ryan Petersen explains how the closure of the Strait of Hormuz is rippling through global trade, driving up oil and air‑freight costs while leaving container shipping relatively unscathed. He highlights secondary crises such...
Trump's Brand Expands Across GCC Amid Iran Tensions
With the Iran conflict now in its 4th week, an important angle worth noting: President Trump’s family business (Trump Organization) has substantial licensing deals across the GCC - Trump Towers, hotels & golf resorts in Saudi Arabia, UAE, Qatar & Oman,...
UK Economy Could Struggle Due to Rising Energy Costs and Inflation Concerns : Analysis
KPMG UK’s latest Economic Outlook warns that Britain’s GDP growth will slow sharply to 0.7% in 2026, half the pace expected for 2025, as rising energy prices and a weaker jobs market bite. A fresh shock to wholesale energy costs,...
Conflicting Hormuz Claims Leave Shipping in Limbo and Markets Swinging
U.S. President Donald Trump announced a five‑day pause on military strikes against Iranian energy assets, claiming productive talks toward ending the Middle East conflict, while Iran refuted any negotiations. Analysts say the Strait of Hormuz remains only partially open, with...
Why Africa Should Pursue China's Coastal-First Approach
African policymakers are urged to adopt a "coastal‑first" development strategy, mirroring China’s early focus on seaports and special economic zones. The article argues that concentrating investment in coastal hubs lowers trade costs, attracts foreign direct investment, and creates surplus revenues...
Policy Paper: Chancellor Meeting with Gilt-Edged Market Makers: Minutes - March 2026
On 23 March 2026 the Chancellor of the Exchequer and the Minister for Pensions convened a meeting with economists from the primary dealer firms that act as wholesale gilt‑edged market makers (GEMMs) at HM Treasury. The session focused on the participants’ views...
Dollar Dominance in Central Bank Reserves
The IMF’s COFER database shows the U.S. dollar still commands roughly 60% of global foreign‑exchange reserves, keeping its status as the premier reserve currency. Over the past decade the euro and Chinese yuan have inched upward, while the British pound...
STG Logistics Survey: Sourcing Diversification, Contract Flexibility, Logistics Network Changes…
STG Logistics released a new industry survey highlighting three emerging trends: shippers are diversifying their sourcing portfolios, demanding greater contract flexibility, and re‑engineering logistics networks to cope with volatile freight markets. Over 60% of respondents plan to add alternative carriers,...
Behavioural Geopolitics: When Your Ally Turns Narcissistic
A German think‑tank paper outlines seven "narcissistic" foreign‑policy patterns, arguing that states can exhibit behaviors akin to individual narcissism. The authors illustrate each pattern with recent U.S. actions under President Trump in 2025, citing performative superiority, attention‑seeking stunts, vindictive retaliation,...
Investors Seek More Signs of Iran Thaw After Rally
The episode reviews Tuesday’s market outlook, focusing on how geopolitics—especially President Trump’s remarks about renewed U.S.-Iran talks and the still‑closed Strait of Hormuz—are driving oil prices and, in turn, equities, bonds, and the dollar. Crude’s recent dip below $88 per...
S. Korea, Mongolia Discuss Accelerating Economic Partnership Negotiations
South Korea and Mongolia are working to accelerate a stalled comprehensive economic partnership agreement (CEPA) that would deepen cooperation on critical minerals. Negotiations have been at an impasse since November 2024 over market‑opening concerns and rules of origin. Korean trade officials...
Unexpected Small Nations Accelerate Global Economic Convergence
Growth is accelerating, but not where most expect. Moldova is projected to lead global GDP per capita growth with +53% by 2030. Alongside countries like Guyana and Turkmenistan, emerging economies dominate the percentage rankings. But the more interesting signal is where speed meets scale. Countries...
Australia, EU Finalize Trade Pact Amid US Tariff Pressure
"Australia and EU seal sensitive trade deal" https://t.co/SVt8r09Man "With U.S. President Donald Trump slamming tariffs on allies globally, Brussels and Canberra rekindled their negotiations last year." https://t.co/0jxir9qjN2
Israel, Iran War: Goldman Sachs Slashes India Growth Forecast, Warns Currency Strain Will Force Rate Hike
Goldman Sachs trimmed its 2026 Indian growth outlook to 5.9%, down from a pre‑war 7% estimate, citing higher oil prices and prolonged disruption in the Strait of Hormuz. The bank now projects inflation at 4.6% and expects the Reserve Bank...
France Aids Farmers Affected by Iran War Fuel Surge
France moves to support farmers hurt by Iran war fuel spike https://t.co/LXQyz0tCcx via @nayrazz https://t.co/bjA6oRzKXS
Americans Despise Inflation yet Embrace Its Causes
Investing Quote of the Day: “I continue to believe that the American people have a love–hate relationship with inflation. They hate inflation but love everything that causes it.” - William E. Simon https://t.co/eO3YmqPZEG
Japan Says to Release About One-Month Supply of Crude Oil Reserves Next
Japan announced it will release roughly 80 million barrels of crude from its strategic reserves starting 26 March, supplementing a 15‑day private‑sector release earlier in the month. The drawdown will be executed across 11 sites nationwide, bringing Japan’s total contribution to the...
Tightening Finance Fuels Hard Asset Appeal Amid Rate Hikes
Hard assets, Oil and Gas in a multipolar world. Financial conditions are tightening at the fastest pace since the regional bank panic of 2023, rate hikes impact already happening, the opposite of White House wants. Join us @MorningsMaria in 5....
ECB Must Stay Alert to Emerging Stagflation Risks
ECB must be vigilant in face of stagflation risks, Vujcic says https://t.co/TJxut9isTf via @jaskuzmanovic https://t.co/HQiDucuNdh
Gold Demand From Central Banks Likely to Rise as Global Risks Intensify: WGC
Central banks are increasing gold purchases as geopolitical tensions and de‑dollarisation drive a safe‑haven shift, according to World Gold Council (WGC) executive Shaokai Fan. Guatemala, Indonesia and Malaysia have entered or re‑entered the market, signaling broader reserve‑strategy changes. Gold prices...
Supreme Court Declares Trump's Tariffs Illegal, Enforces Proper Section 301
The Supreme Court ruled Trump's tariffs were illegal, forcing the administration to do things...the right way. Welcome to Section 301 investigations. Full Newsletter: https://t.co/clLUiPPPhq #tariffs #trump #economy https://t.co/En6Bk5ulRD
ECB Launches New Scrutiny of Banks' Private Credit Exposure
You can run, but you can't hide: ECB to Start Fresh Checks on Banks’ Exposure to Private Credit https://t.co/nEqJE6yYDf
India Bonds Seen Lower as Elevated Oil, Higher US Yields Pinch; Debt Sale in Focus
Indian government bond yields slipped on Tuesday as Brent crude hovered above $100 a barrel and U.S. 10‑year Treasury yields steadied near 4.40%, the sharpest sell‑off since October 2023. The benchmark 2035 bond yield was expected to trade between 6.81%...
Germany Seeks Global Gas Suppliers Beyond the US
German Economy Minister Katherina Reiche is pushing gas companies to diversify beyond the US 🇩🇪 🚢 Reiche said Germany is also pursuing agreements with Angola, Mexico, Canada and other suppliers worldwide https://t.co/YsSeBtLmvB https://t.co/RPngivFPz4
Trump's Iran Conflict Sends Shockwaves Through Global Markets
From Indian films to Italian wine, Trump’s Iran war ripples through the world economy https://t.co/nN8qmnNvwV via @Swatisays @LouKCurtis @mniquette https://t.co/oUjyH8kZ9O
Strait of Hormuz Traffic Plummets 98% Below Normal
GS: We Estimate Based on Reported Vessel Counts that Average Daily Flows Through the Strait of Hormuz Are Down 98% From Their Normal Levels (4-Day Moving Average) https://t.co/af4DPzafNM
Navigating War, AI, and Central Bank Independence
Great conversation with Nicolai Tangen on the In Good Company podcast. From the uncertainty created by the war in the Middle East to the impact of AI and the importance of central bank independence, we covered a lot of ground. Listen...
African Metal Bans Threaten Chinese Battery Supply Investments
African export restrictions on battery metals are a blow to Chinese companies that have spent billions of dollars developing mines there to dominate supplies https://t.co/yoI9r6fpaN
Upcoming March EZ PMIs May Signal Three Rate Hikes
% min until the first EZ PMIs start to trickle in for March, with ERZ6 pricing in three hikes for this year. Let's see whether the latter holds. Remember,that the PMIs will tend to import this shock as "strength" via...
Pakistan Faces Energy Crunch as Qatar LNG Supply Dries
Almost 99% of Pakistan’s LNG imports came from Qatar last year. Now, PAK import terminals are close to shutting down. Pakistan may be forced to turn to more EXPENSIVE and DIRTIER furnace oil to generate power. PAKISTAN SHOULD SEND A BILL FOR...