Today's Global Economy Pulse
Australia's April CPI eases to 4.2% as core inflation hits 2024 high
Australia’s consumer price index slipped to a 4.2% annual rise in April, missing the 4.4% consensus as a temporary fuel excise cut trimmed transport costs. At the same time, the trimmed‑mean core inflation gauge rose to 3.4% year‑over‑year, the highest level since late‑2024, keeping pressure on the Reserve Bank of Australia’s inflation target.
Economic and Geopolitical Upheaval Adding Risk to Financial System, Canada's Top Bank Regulator Says
Canada’s top banking regulator warned that escalating economic and geopolitical turmoil is adding systemic risk, but affirmed the country’s banks remain resilient compared with global peers. He highlighted that roughly 2.1 million mortgages will need renewal over the next two years, with 30,000‑150,000 borrowers in vulnerable positions. OSFI is easing capital requirements for certain commercial loans while scrutinizing internal risk models, and it plans to shorten new‑fintech licensing from 36 to 12 months to boost competition. Private‑credit markets may see higher losses, yet the regulator expects no broad‑scale crisis.
Iran Holds Leverage; Trump Appears Forced Into Ceasefire
Seems highly irrational for Iran to open the Strait during a ceasefire and forego all negotiating leverage. In that case, Trump would just aim for an indefinite ceasefire. And for that to even get off the ground Iran would need...
Ag Groups Urge U.S. to Drop Phosphate Fertilizer Tariffs on Morocco, Russia Imports
More than 60 agricultural organizations, including USA Rice, the National Corn Growers Association and the American Soybean Association, have asked the U.S. Department of Commerce to lift countervailing duties on phosphate fertilizer imported from Morocco and Russia. The groups argue...
I Can’t Find a Job in the Bay Area, So I’ll Search in London
Revelio Labs data shows more U.S. tech workers moving to Europe than the reverse, but the shift isn’t driven by geography alone. Remote‑first policies and global R&D footprints have flattened opportunities, while cost‑of‑living adjustments diminish the Bay Area’s salary edge....
Dow Dips 84, Nasdaq Sinks 185, S&P 500 Falls 25
U.S. equity markets slipped on Tuesday, with the Dow Jones down 84 points (0.2%), the Nasdaq falling 185 points (0.8%) and the S&P 500 dropping 0.4% to 6,556.37. The retreat followed President Trump’s optimistic remarks on Iran‑U.S. talks, which initially...
Stocks Slide Again as Crude Oil Controls: Stock Market Today
Stocks slipped amid renewed oil‑price pressure as the Strait of Hormuz remained blocked, pushing WTI crude to $91.66 a barrel and Brent above $103. Energy‑heavy sectors rallied while the S&P 500 fell 0.4 percent, reflecting a near‑100 % intraday correlation between oil and...
U.S. Pushes for Strategic Mineral Reserve Amid Geopolitical Tensions
U.S. policymakers are urging the creation of a strategic reserve for critical minerals used in weapons, electric vehicles and electronics, but details of the plan were not disclosed. The move comes as Middle‑East conflict spikes oil prices and fuels concerns...
Hormuz Crisis Sparks Global Oil Shockwave Across Time
I've been describing the Hormuz crisis as a detonation in spacetime. It hit spot crude markets in the Middle East and refined products markets in Asia first. Then the shockwave travels further through time down the delivery curve, and out geographically toward...
Winter Is Coming. Are We Ready?
Henry Ong revisits the Kondratieff long‑wave theory, warning that the Philippines may be entering the “winter” phase of the multi‑decade cycle. He highlights that corporate debt relative to market value has climbed from about 12% in 2007 to roughly 51%...
ADB Preps Support for Asia Amid Middle East Conflict
The Asian Development Bank announced a rapid assistance package for its developing member countries to cushion the economic fallout from the Middle East conflict. The plan combines fast‑disbursing budget support through its Counter‑cyclical Support Facility and a Trade and Supply...
An Imperial Redux
An Imperial Redux draws a parallel between the 1956 Suez Crisis and a 2026 US‑Israel military strike on Iran. The blog argues that, like Britain and France, the United States and Israel pursued an independent foreign policy without NATO support,...
Jeffrey Goldberg and Joe Weisenthal: Pandora's Box Has Been Opened
In this Bulwark Podcast episode, host Tim Miller chats with Atlantic editor‑in‑chief Joe Weisenthal and journalist Jeffrey Goldberg about the economic fallout of the Iran‑Israel conflict and the broader implications for U.S. defense policy. They dissect the controversial Signal‑chat scandal...
Interview with Erika McEntarfer: Firings and Federal Statistics
Erika McEntarfer, former Commissioner of the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, was abruptly dismissed by President Trump on August 1, 2025. She recounts a chaotic termination day and a prior encounter with the Department of Government Efficiency, which proposed replacing statisticians with...
The Dollar Is Trading Like a Petrocurrency
Since the U.S.-Israel conflict with Iran began in late February, the U.S. Dollar Index has risen sharply, pulling down precious‑metal prices. The dollar’s strength is tied to a parallel surge in crude oil, which jumped from the $60s to around...
Markets Ignore Trump, Await Iran Signal
Trump is trying HARD But little to no reaction in the markets. It's clear , it doesn't matter if it's Oil , yields , Gold , Silver or Indices ; Everyone is looking for a signal directly from Iran. They are not trusting...
Daily Energy Report
China’s crude oil inventories have surged since early 2024, climbing roughly 15% year‑over‑year and reaching levels not seen in a decade. Despite oil prices soaring well above the breakeven cost of the stockpiled barrels, Beijing has drawn little to none...
EM Rally and Strong Dollar: Unsustainable, Breaks Quickly
EM rallying while the dollar firms is a tough combo to sustain. If it breaks, it breaks fast. Where does the pressure show up first when this snaps? em
Treasury Yields Return to Trump Era, Signaling Market Anxiety
10Y treasury back to where it was at Trumps inauguration. Its increased almost 0.5% since the Iran war started in a sign that the market worries do the long term effects of Trump’s chaotic presidency. That makes mortgages more expensive. 1Y...
SNB Chairman: We Are Prepared to Introduce Negative Rates but the Hurdle Is High
Swiss National Bank Chairman announced that the central bank is prepared to push policy rates into negative territory, but acknowledges a high hurdle before such a move. He emphasized that while the policy rate remains the primary tool, foreign‑exchange intervention...
Markets Revise Expectations for Price‑Stability‑Focused Central Banks
These FT charts illustrate the shift in market expectations for policy actions by the world’s major central banks. The change has been particularly striking for central banks with a single mandate (of price stability). #economy #markets #centralbanks @financialtimes
EU Postpones Russian Oil-Ban, as Iran Energy Shock Aggravates Rifts
The European Commission announced it will postpone the planned EU-wide ban on Russian oil imports that was slated for 15 April, pushing the decision to after the Easter break without setting a new deadline. The delay is attributed to heightened energy...
The Strait of Hormuz & Why It Matters
In a 3EDGE Week in Review video, Chief Investment Strategist Fritz Folts and CEO/CIO Steve Cucchiaro examine the geopolitical risks of a potential closure of the Strait of Hormuz. They outline the waterway’s strategic role in global oil transport and...
Top in Indices in Europe? How Will that Affect Price of BTC?
European equities appear to be approaching a structural top, prompting Swissblock to host a Global Macro & Bitcoin Market Briefing on March 25 at 10:00 PM CET. The session features macro experts Yann Allemann, Henrik Zeberg, and crypto analyst Willy Woo. Attendees...
Current Crisis Lies at Geopolitics‑Economic Collapse Intersection
I am an economist, not a political commentator. But what is happening right now sits at the exact intersection of geopolitics and economic collapse that I have spent my career studying.
Oil Surplus Dwarfed by Massive Asian Capital Excess
Three big picture observations about the oil surplus (petrodollars/ petroeuros/ petroequities are all downstream of this) pre Hormuz A) The oil surplus is modest relative to the surplus in Asia. Chinese state banks and offshore deposits of Chinese exporters are...
Not Everyone’s Happy About Jensen Huang’s Direct Line to Trump
Nvidia CEO Jensen Huang has cultivated a direct line to President Donald Trump, turning personal access into a powerful lobbying tool. His influence helped reverse export restrictions, secure a $20 billion Groq acquisition tied to a Trump‑aligned investment firm, and win...
Rising Diesel Prices Threaten New Inflationary Spiral
$5+ Diesel Could Unleash Inflationary Mindset the Fed Better Not “Look Through.” Inflation Was already Hot before Iran War. When this inflationary mindset takes off, inflation becomes like a runaway train https://t.co/51qim5kPk6 https://t.co/cBfjwNFSno
Drone Strikes Threaten Russian Oil, Global Market Stability
With the Persian Gulf effectively offline, losing Russian oil would be devastating to the global markets. Drone warfare continues to evolve and reshape the way these conflicts unfold, especially when targeting energy infrastructure. #crude #russiaukrainewar #geopolitics https://t.co/L5OoXtN7DJ
Oil Shortage Anywhere Hits All Nations Equally
The trouble with looking at the current Hormuz crisis through the lens of which countries have historically imported the volumes is that all of these countries will now be rabidly bidding for all the other barrels. A barrel of oil lost...
World Still Faces 6M‑Barrel Daily Oil Shortfall
Even after assuming the release of global oil stockpiles (which can not be sustained), the world is still short over 6 million barrels of oil per day, @Rory_Johnston finds https://t.co/pZBkSir3aa
Policy Interventions Boost Export Growth in Vehicles, Batteries
Interesting "Consistent with these channels, Figure 3 shows that sectors with more policy interventions experienced faster export growth over the 2017 to 2024 period. The relationship is especially pronounced in motor vehicles and battery-related products" 1/
Trump Claims Productive Talks, Iran Denies; Market Rally Fades
Trump said US-Iran talks were "productive" and markets rallied over 1% on Monday. Iran's parliament speaker then responded: "No negotiations have been held with the US." Today the rally is already fading. The trend is down we’re making lower lows.
Treasury Declares U.S. Insolvent, Media Overlooks Crisis
Do what you do best. The Treasury just declared the U.S. insolvent. The media missed it https://t.co/8cCbpiK9a8
Russia's Oil Profits Surge; Carmakers Forced to Source Russian Aluminum
Russia is earning the most from its oil exports since the 2022 Ukraine invasion. https://t.co/71t01Q9mI9 Meanwhile some carmakers are considering buying aluminum from Russia. “We don’t really want to take supplies from Russia but we have no choice” https://t.co/fzAXIO4N0x
US Money Supply Jumps 5%—Largest Rise Since 2022
The US Money Supply grew 5% over the last year, the biggest YoY increase since June 2022. After a brief hiatus, money printing is back. https://t.co/bnnPEsB9x6
Iran Conflict Could Shut Strait, Disrupt Global Supply Chains
Planning for two-three weeks more of Iran war. What does Iran do? Are we teaching a tipping point of how long the Strait will be closed or have few ships transiting? Then what? Maritime? Supply chains. Global economy?
Dollar Rally Stalls at 100, Bulls at Crossroads
US Dollar Short-term Outlook: USD Rally Fails at 100 – Bulls Face Decision Point https://t.co/0qMDRVx9to $DXY Daily & 240min Charts https://t.co/fcyIgceNQF
Iran's Strait of Hormuz Leverage Ensures Persistent Economic Power
“Iran holds a lot of cards with the Strait Of Hormuz.” That’s the quote to remember. Geography can be economic power, and “that vulnerability remains pretty much forever.” https://t.co/OoCOYi8LMc
Understanding Persistent Foreign Private Demand for U.S. Treasuries
This raises an important question -- namely how should we understand ongoing demand for Treasuries from private investors abroad? 1/ https://t.co/IVZNahIfEc
Service Input Costs Hit May High; Manufacturers at Seven‑month Peak
"Input prices for services rose to the highest since May, while those for manufacturers jumped to a seven-month high." https://t.co/NMR6KvBOzE https://t.co/DhoJ1m76qO
White House Misapplies Oil Price in Iran Conflict
The White House Is Using the Wrong Oil Price for the Iran War. More charts and graphs featured on today's Chartbook Top Links in the comment below. https://t.co/DQwqJc87ve
DXY Volatility Hits 9‑Month High, Range Contracts
Volatility on the $DXY Dollar Index keeps has climbed to a 9 month high - when measured by the 20-day ATR. Meanwhile, the 20-day range has leveled out and contracted. So, scenarios: either volatility drops to accommodate range or breakout...
Official Iran Inflation Rate Underestimates True 67%
Iran's the Statistical Center of Iran reports that Iran's yearly inflation was 47.5%/yr. WRONG. Today, I measure Iran’s inflation at 67%/yr. I am the only accurate source of inflation measurements for Iran. https://t.co/mSpK5W3YvR
US Yield Rise Threatens Debt Spiral Amid Oil Tensions
Update: 10y UST yields (blue, RS1) USDJPY*oil (red, LS) USDCNY*oil (green, RS2) Hormuz is still closed; China still has several years of oil inventories; 10y UST yields are ~20-30 bps from triggering a US & global debt spiral. What happens first? Let's watch. https://t.co/ixdOHnatCg
Freight Data Reveals Unprecedented Manufacturing Surge Since COVID
The freight data doesn't lie... It has been signaling incredibly strong manufacturing conditions for months. I am seeing some of the strongest freight volume charts tied to industrial activity I've seen since COVID. https://t.co/jJXPO8D1OQ
2‑Year Treasury Auction Weakest Since May 2024
“Today’s 2 yr auction was terrible:” @pboockvar The bid-to-cover ratio was the weakest since May 2024 and dealers got stuck with the largest amount since October 2022. Traders are having a hard time pricing Fed policy as oil prices swing...
Iran's Transit Fee Hikes Oil, LNG, and Shipping Prices
Factoring in Iran’s “transit” fee. And what it does to the price of oil, LNG, and anything else moving thru the Strait.
New Book Offers Fresh Insight on Inflation Expectations
Perfect timing for a new book on inflation expectations. https://t.co/CpPzlHzxxf by Olivier Coibion and Yuriy Gorodnichenko https://t.co/Cy5qOH9CED
Dollar Reserves Stalled This Decade After Prior Surge
The thing is -- There has been NO dollar reserve accumulation in aggregate over the last ten years. And there was a ton of dollar reserve accumulation during the preceding 10ys (way more than needed for precautionary purposes) https://t.co/GGry0kCOk2
Japanese Automakers Turn to Russian Aluminum Amid US‑Israeli Conflict
As a result of the US-Israeli war on Iran, Japanese carmakers are looking to BUY ALUMINUM from RUSSIA. RUSSIA = THE BIG WINNER OF TRUMP & NETANYAHU'S WAR. https://t.co/JIiV9xOkFp