Today's Global Economy Pulse
Fed's Kashkari warns inflation remains far too high
Minneapolis Fed President Neel Kashkari told CNBC that headline CPI was 3.8% in April and core CPI rose 2.8% year‑over‑year. He said the persistent price pressure could unanchor consumer expectations and may force the Federal Reserve to act more aggressively.
China's Copper Overcapacity Pressures U.S. Market as Investment Lags
China's state‑backed surge in copper smelting and fabrication now accounts for roughly 80% of new global capacity, tightening markets as the United States lags in domestic investment. The imbalance has prompted 50% Section 232 tariffs and renewed calls for export controls on high‑grade copper scrap.
Lagarde Says ECB Won't Be 'Paralyzed by Hesitation' On Iran
European Central Bank President Christine Lagarde told a Frankfurt conference that the ECB will act decisively if a surge in energy costs linked to Iran threatens broader inflation. She emphasized the bank will not be "paralyzed by hesitation" and reiterated...
India’s REER Shows Rupee Deeply Undervalued, Services Amplify
India's REER (Real Effective Exchange Rate) index is substantially below 100, no matter which currency basket we use. Below 100 means the rupee is undervalued. I have issues with the index (which only uses good trade, not services) - if...
Sabine Mauderer: Preserving Stability in a Fragmented and Uncertain World
Sabine Mauderer, chair of the NGFS, warned that heightened policy uncertainty—especially around climate and energy transition—is already dampening economic output and private investment, citing a 0.5% U.S. GDP hit and a $65 billion loss for the global car industry. She highlighted...
Solar Power Could Slash ASEAN Energy Costs by $67 B, Halving Gas Expenses
Ember’s latest study shows that swapping ASEAN’s planned gas‑fired capacity for solar would save the region up to $67 billion and reduce electricity generation costs by roughly 50%. The finding arrives as LNG prices surge after disruptions in the Strait of...
BOJ Policymakers Signal Readiness for More Rate Hikes as Inflation Pressures Persist
Bank of Japan minutes from the January meeting show policymakers leaning toward additional rate hikes, citing persistent inflation and a depreciating yen. The central bank kept the short‑term rate at 0.75% but signalled a hawkish shift, while markets price a...
Iran War Halts 20 M Bpd, Pushes Brent to $120, Triggers Hormuz Fees and Coal Shift
Iran's war has shut down more than 20 million barrels of oil per day and driven Brent crude toward $120 a barrel. Tehran has begun charging transit fees for the Strait of Hormuz, while soaring prices are pushing Asian importers toward...
Market Celebrating Trump's Seeming Desperation to Pull US Out of Iran War.
The episode dissects the market’s upbeat reaction to President Trump’s 15‑point peace proposal aimed at ending the Iran‑U.S. conflict, highlighting how traders are betting on reduced risk despite lingering supply disruptions in oil and refined products. Host commentary contrasts divergent...
India's Sensex and Nifty Jump Near 2% as Crude Slumps 5% on US‑Iran Ceasefire Hopes
The Sensex climbed 1.89% and the Nifty rose 1.78% after crude oil prices fell 5% on reports of a possible US‑Iran ceasefire. The rally was reinforced by Reliance Industries' first Iranian crude purchase since 2019, signaling renewed confidence in energy...
Morgan Stanley Warns Hawkish Fed Outlook Is Biggest Market Risk, Upending Rate‑cut Consensus
Morgan Stanley issued a stark research note warning that a hawkish Federal Reserve, rather than economic weakness, now poses the greatest risk to markets. The bank says investors are underestimating the Fed's inflation‑first stance after the March 18 FOMC held...
Turkey Conveying Messages Between Iran-US, Ruling Party Official Says
Turkey’s ruling party announced that Ankara is relaying messages between the United States and Iran to promote de‑escalation and direct talks. The effort also extends to Gulf states, which are increasingly entangled in the regional conflict sparked by recent U.S.–Israeli...
There Are No Missiles Raining Down on Havana. But What I Saw There Was Still Warfare | Owen Jones
Owen Jones reports that the Trump administration’s recent fuel embargo has deepened Cuba’s humanitarian crisis, crippling hospitals, blacking out the grid, and halting tourism. The lack of diesel has left the Ramón González Coro maternity hospital without essential medicines, while...
Signs of Jet Fuel Hoarding Emerge in Asia on Iran Oil Shock
Asian airlines are increasingly hoarding jet fuel as the Iran‑Russia war drives crude prices above $120 per barrel. South Korea’s transport ministry is debating redirecting export‑bound jet fuel to the domestic market, while Philippine Airlines warns of imminent fuel rationing....
EU Launches Trade and Digital Skills Projects to Strengthen the Lobito Corridor
The European Union has committed €11 million (about $12 million) to two development projects along the Lobito Corridor in the Democratic Republic of the Congo. A €6 million trade‑facilitation programme will streamline customs and regulatory procedures, while a €5 million digital‑skills initiative will train...
US 15‑point War Plan Lifts Stocks, Drops Yields
The heavy flow of War-related news continues this morning, with reports ranging from corroborative to contradictory. On a net basis—and mainly reflecting news that the US has proposed a “15-point plan to end the war”—bond yields and oil prices are down...
German Business Outlook Sinks as Iran Puts Recovery ‘on Ice’
Germany’s business confidence slipped sharply as the Ifo expectations index fell to 86, its lowest level in more than a year. The decline reflects heightened uncertainty after the Iran‑related war drove European energy prices higher, threatening the country’s tentative economic...
Dimitar Radev: The Euro and the Banking Sector - Readiness to Participate and Shared Responsibility
Bulgaria’s switch to the euro was the culmination of a multi‑year overhaul that fortified banks’ balance sheets, upgraded risk‑management practices, and aligned the sector with European standards. The transition unfolded smoothly, with payment systems operating normally and no immediate credit‑risk...
Amid Struggles at Home, 80% of Chinese Companies in EU Plan More Investment
A recent survey by the Chinese Chamber of Commerce to the EU finds that almost 80% of Chinese companies operating in Europe plan to increase investment, despite citing policy uncertainty. In contrast, only 38% of European firms intend to expand...
Japan PM Takaichi Asks IEA Chief for Further Oil Stockpile Release
Japanese Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi asked International Energy Agency chief Fatih Birol for an additional coordinated release of oil stockpiles as Tokyo prepares for a potentially prolonged Middle East conflict. The request follows a prior agreement to release 400 million barrels—about 20%...
Middle East Conflict Risks Pushing UK Food Inflation Above 8%, Warns IGD
IGD warns that prolonged Middle East instability could trigger an energy shock that pushes UK food inflation above 8% by June 2026. In its worst‑case scenario, the surge would add roughly $190 to the average household grocery bill, while even...
Inflation Remains Steady for Now
UK inflation held steady in February 2026, with the consumer price index unchanged at 3% and CPIH at 3.2%, while the retail price index slipped to 3.6%. The ongoing US‑Israeli war with Iran has sparked an energy crisis deemed worse...
A New Service: Expert Briefings with Lars Christensen
PAICE has launched Expert Briefings, a bespoke service led by Lars Christensen that delivers interactive sessions on macroeconomics, geopolitics, and artificial intelligence. The briefings are tailored to each organization’s industry, risk exposure, and strategic questions, and can be delivered as...
Inflation Holds Firm at 3% in February
The UK Consumer Price Index (CPI) held steady at a 3% year‑over‑year increase in February, unchanged from January. Monthly inflation also remained at 0.4%, mirroring the same pace recorded a year earlier. Clothing prices were the primary upward force, while...
UK February Inflation: Stable Headline Rate Masks Rising Retail and Housi...
UK inflation held at 3% in February 2026, matching expectations and marking the lowest level since March 2025. While the headline rate was unchanged, clothing and footwear prices rose 0.9% and housing costs ticked up to 4.6%, indicating emerging retail...
Yannis Stournaras: The Greek Economy Ten Years After the Crisis - Lessons for National Economies, the Eurozone and Future Challenges
Greek central banker Yannis Stournaras reflected on a decade after Greece’s debt crisis, highlighting how fiscal consolidation, debt restructuring and deep structural reforms restored macro‑economic stability and turned a primary deficit into a surplus. He noted that the banking sector’s...
Elizabeth Genia: Presentation of the March 2026 Economic Outlook, Inflation and Monetary Policy
The Bank of Papua New Guinea presented its March 2026 outlook, projecting GDP growth of about 3% after a strong 5.3% expansion in 2025 and forecasting headline inflation near 4% despite a fresh Middle‑East energy shock. The Monetary Policy Committee kept...
India’s Total Exports Rise to USD 714.73 Billion Amid Global Uncertainty
India’s merchandise and services exports rose 5.26% year‑over‑year to $714.73 billion in April‑January FY 2025‑26, extending a 6.9% compound annual growth rate since 2021. The surge reflects a blend of traditional strengths and technology‑driven sectors, underpinned by the Foreign Trade Policy 2023...
Chiara Scotti: Financial Stability and Regulation in an Age of Transformation - How Economic Research Can Help Reorient Navigation
At the fifth joint conference of Banca d'Italia, Bocconi University, EIEF and CEPR, Chiara Scotti highlighted how the 2023 banking turmoil exposed stark differences in deposit dynamics across institutions. She argued that digitalization and the rise of non‑bank intermediaries have...
Follow the Money: Finance and the Future of Allied Economic Statecraft
Finance is emerging as the core instrument of modern economic statecraft, linking public priorities with private capital to shape critical sectors such as defense, infrastructure, manufacturing, and AI. The generative‑AI boom highlights how massive, capital‑intensive projects—like a one‑gigawatt data center...
Israel Strikes Tehran as Trump Says US Negotiating to End War
Israel launched a missile strike on Tehran while President Trump announced that the United States is negotiating a cease‑fire with Iran. The news sent crude oil prices plunging more than 6%, before partially recovering on doubts about the report’s veracity....
Steel Companies Gear up for Further Hike in Prices
Indian steel producers are preparing for another price increase as U.S. attacks on Iran lift coking coal, ferro‑alloy and shipping costs. Domestic hot‑rolled coil prices have risen 23 percent to roughly $650‑$700 per tonne, up from about $566 a month earlier....
EU FTA Holds some Benefit for Grain, Oilseed Sector Bar Rice
The Australia‑EU free trade agreement eliminates tariffs on key grains – wheat, barley and wheat starch – saving up to $166‑$392 per tonne, and grants a $70 million duty‑free wheat‑gluten quota. Canola oil, machinery and chemicals also become tariff‑free, while ethanol...
Oil Prices Drop 5% Amid Hopes of Ceasefire in the War in West Asia, Brent Below $100
Oil prices plunged about 5% on Wednesday as optimism grew that a US‑Iran cease‑fire could be negotiated, pushing Brent crude below $100 per barrel and WTI to $88.31. The decline follows a recent peak near $119, but ongoing strikes and...
Food Inflation Update Feb 2026
Food inflation in February 2026 shows a fragmented pattern, with red meat prices driving overall increases while fresh produce prices decline. Beef rose 7.9% year‑over‑year and lamb/goat 6.8%, whereas vegetables, fruit and eggs fell 1‑2% annually. Monthly data reveal a...
Trump‑Iran Talks Spark Hormuz Oil Fears, Lift Prices
Trump Iran talks revived Strait of Hormuz oil flow fears and pushed global energy prices higher. https://www.metalnomist.com/2026/03/trump-iran-talks-put-strait-of-hormuz.html
Saudi Red Sea Exports Avert Major Hormuz Oil Disruption
Saudi oil exports from its Western ports on the Red Sea represented the most immediate and largest mitigation of the Hormuz crisis. Logically, any oil transported via pipelines from east to west and loaded at the Red Sea ports must be...
Electricity Prices Return to Reality
Australia’s February 2026 CPI rose 3.7% year‑over‑year, a modest dip from January’s 3.8%. The headline increase was driven primarily by a 7.2% surge in housing costs, while food and non‑alcoholic beverages rose 3.1% and recreation and culture climbed 4.1%. A...
Thailand May Hike Power Rates 18% Amid Middle East Conflict
Thailand is hiking power prices due to the conflict in the Middle East 🇹🇭 ⚠️ Power rates may be increased by as much as 18% for the May-Aug. billing period due to higher fuel costs Other gas importers are...
Ceasefire Talks Boost Global Markets, SPX Near Resistance
Mostly green arrows around the World as Israel says there’s growing talks for a 30 Day Ceasefire. Europe and Asia broadly higher $spx futures +62. We’ll see if early strength builds or fades. $spy pivot resistance $662...
Countries Scramble for Fertilizer to Avert Food Crisis
Nations race to secure enough fertilizer and prevent a food crisis https://t.co/XNG35EquM6 via @parija_pratik @ilenapeng @ElThorn22 https://t.co/6wfySPHkym
US-Israeli Conflict Boosts Iran's Oil Sales and Prices
My take on @AJEnglish on how the US-Israeli war has backfired and is benefiting Iran: “Iran is getting more oil out, they’re selling it at higher prices, and at lower discounts than prior to the US-Israeli attacks.” https://t.co/ySeIcR0lFS
Turkey Tourism Dips as Middle East Tensions Rise
#TurkeyWatch 🇹🇷: Foreign visitor arrivals dropped 2.1% y/y in February. Turkey’s tourism sector is paying the price for the US-Israeli attack on Iran. TURKEY’S TOURIST OPERATORS SHOULD SEND A BILL FOR DAMAGES TO TRUMP & NETANYAHU. https://t.co/HORq6jRes2
India's Economy Crippled by Gulf Dependence Amid Iran War
#IndiaWatch 🇮🇳: As the Iranian war drags on, India takes an economic hit. Eighty percent of Indian gas imports, forty percent of Indian oil imports, and forty percent of India’s remittances depend on the Gulf. MODI SHOULD SEND TRUMP AND NETANYAHU A...
Asia Cuts LNG Imports to Free Gas for Europe
This is why there is so much focus on gas demand destruction 👇 Importers (particularly those in emerging Asia) will need to take less LNG to free-up more for Europe and other richer nations the longer Hormuz/Qatar is shut
OPEC+ March Crude Supply Hits 2020 Low
OPEC+ crude supply in March will be the lowest since the major production cuts during COVID lockdown in 2020.
March PMI Slump Hits Australia; US‑Iran Energy Crisis Spreads
Global composite activity PMIs for March universality dropped for the latest month's activity. Australia took the biggest hit. Japan and US still holding up the best relatively speaking. Overall, the US-Iran conflict's energy crisis is spilling over https://t.co/viZdRPVFN9
North Korean Won Plummets 61%, World's 2nd Worst Currency
On this week's Hanke's #CurrencyWatchlist, the North Korean won ranks as the WORLD'S 2ND WORST CURRENCY. The won has depreciated by 61% against the USD over the past year. THE COLLAPSE OF THE WON IS THE WORLD’S MOST UNREPORTED CURRENCY STORY. https://t.co/WiB50eaMz6
Venezuela Leads, North Korea Follows in Hyperinflation
#HankeInflationDashboard: By my measurements, this week's top 5 inflators are: 🇻🇪Venezuela — 634.0%/yr 🇰🇵North Korea — 160.7%/yr 🇮🇷Iran — 67.0%/yr 🇱🇾Libya — 55.3%/yr 🇨🇺Cuba — 48.9%/yr https://t.co/mNBJPXLGIg
Iran's Global Economic Power Outpaces Domestic Concerns
This will be nothing like VZ @HayekAndKeynes Iran is the most powerful country in the world right now. It controls the blood supply of the global economy. It's wildest dream wan't half this good It couldn't give a shit about its own people...
China Gas Prices Surge 20% Since Iran War
Gas prices in China jumped 20% since the war in Iran began. This is big. It affects 300 million drivers. CHAIRMAN XI SHOULD SEND A BILL FOR DAMAGES TO TRUMP & NETANYAHU. https://t.co/5AEwfc2iWb